HOW WELL IS MINNESOTA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012
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Transcript of HOW WELL IS MINNESOTA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012
HOW WELL IS MINNESOTA
PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE,
CAREERS AND LIFE
September 2012
2
Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?
The Economic Imperative: A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the global economy.
The Equity Imperative: Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts.
The Expectations Imperative: The bar has been set too low for too long, keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.
What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready? To be college- and career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects that are part of a well-rounded education.
THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE: A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NOLONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESSThe changing economy is accelerating theskills mismatch, as careers increasingly requiresome education/training beyond high school,and more developed knowledge and skills
4
Why College and Career Readiness Is Imperative for Our Economic Future
Employer Expectations: Employers increasingly need their employees to use a broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly complex demand coming from the modernized workplace.
Skills Mismatch: While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has remained flat.
International Advantage: Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps, and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains stagnant.
Personal Benefits: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. Educational attainment isn’t just a benefit in the short-term; more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every level of the pipeline.
5Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
Employer Expectations: Education and Training and Requirements Over Time
Bachelor's & HigherSome College /
Associate's Degree
High School GraduateHigh School
Dropout
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%33%
29%28%
10%
32%27%30%
11%
16%
12%
40%
32%
Percentage of Workforce by Education Level2018
2002
1973
6Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition. http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm
Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for Postsecondary Education and Training
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
8%8%8%8%
13%
17%17% 18 18%19%
Percent Change in Employment, by Education or Training Category, 2008-18
7Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution.
Employer Expectations: The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs
High-skill jobs
Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories.
Often require four-year degrees and above
Middle-skill jobs
Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.
Low-skill jobs
Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.
Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training.
8Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/
Employer Expectations: Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level
Minnesota (2009)
U.S. (2009)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
21%
19%
45%
52%
34%
29%
High Skill Middle Skill Low Skill
9Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Minnesota’s Supply
In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.
One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level.
79% of Minnesota’s jobs are middle or high skills (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).
Yet only 46% of Minnesota’s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher).
10Source: ManPower Group. (2011). 2011 Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011). An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future. www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp & Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled
52% of employers reported difficulty in finding the right talent, up from 14% in 2010.
This is the highest U.S. percentage reported in ManPower Group’s annual survey’s six-year history.
Another 30% of companies, surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said they had job opening for six months or more because of lack of ideal/qualified candidates.
11Source: OECD, PISA 2009 Database. Statlink – http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932343342
International Advantage: Increased Competition from Abroad
While the benefits of graduating high school college- and career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and workforce.
Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding increased education and more complex skills – and other countries are responding.
U.S. students rank 12th in reading, 13th in science, and 24th in math on international testing.
12
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates
Iceland
U.K.
Netherlands
Norway
Ireland
Denmark
Germany
Israel
Canada
Poland
Korea
U.S.
Minnesota
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+ % Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+
13
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment
U.K.
Spain
France
Belgium
Israel
Denmark
Ireland
Norway
Japan
Canada
Korea
U.S.
Minnesota
0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree % Adults (25-64) with College Degree
14
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006)
55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)
1 U.S. (40%) Canada (44%) Canada (54%) Korea (58%) Canada (49%)
2 Canada (40%) Japan (43%) Japan (48%) Canada (56%) Japan (43%)
3 N.Z. (34%) U.S. (40%) Finland (44%) Japan (55%) U.S. (41%)
4 Finland (29%) N.Z. (38%) U.S. (43%) N.Z. (48%) N.Z. (40%)
5 Australia (28%) Finland (37%) Korea (43%) Norway (46%) Finland (37%)
6 Norway (28%) Australia (33%) N.Z. (40%) Ireland (45%) Korea (37%)
7 Switz. (27%) Denmark (32%) Norway (38%) Denmark (43%) Norway (36%)
8 U.K. (27%) Norway (32%) Australia (38%) Belgium (42%) Australia (36%)
9 Sweden (26%) Switz. (31%) Denmark (37%) Australia (42%) Denmark (34%)
10 Neth. (26%) Neth. (31%) Ireland (37%) U.S. (42%) Ireland (34%)
11 Denmark (26%) Iceland (30%) Switz. (36%) Sweden (41%) Switz. (34%)
12 Japan (26%) U.K. (30%) Iceland (36%) France (41%) U.K. (33%)
13 Germany (24%) Belgium (29%) Belgium (35%) Neth. (40%) Belgium (32%)
14 Iceland (24%) Sweden (28%) U.K. (33%) Spain (39%) Neth. (32%)
15 Belgium (22%) Ireland (27%) Sweden (33%) Luxembourg (39%) Sweden (32%)
45-64: Minnesota (42%) MN (50%) MN (50%) MN (46%)
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment
15
Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment
While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary
experience.
The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:
More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.
16Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/cps/data/cpstablecreator.html
Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment
Minnesota Statistics: Total Unemployment: 8%, Mean Income: $36,708
Bachelor’s & Above
Some College
HS Graduate
HS Dropout
5%
7%
10%
17%
$59,982
$33,411
$27,648
$9,017
Mean Income Unemployment Rate
17Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.
Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings
$-
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000 Estimated Average Lifetime Earnings
by Education Level
THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE: CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND PREPARATION FOR ALLFar too many students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for real world challenges
19
Achievement Gaps Start Early: Minnesota’s 4th and 8th Grade Achievement Gaps
Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/
Subgroup4th Grade
Math(2011)
4th Grade Reading (2011)
4th Grade Science (2009)
8th Grade Math (2011)
8th Grade
Reading (2011)
8th Grade Science(2011)
All Students 53% 35% 43% 48% 39% 42%
White 60% 42% 51% 55% 44% 49%
Black 23% 16% 12% 18% 15% 10%
Hispanic 28% 12% 16% 18% 23% 18%
Asian 57% 32% 31% 35% 37% 29%
American Indian 30% 14% 12% 11% n/a 14%
% At or Above Proficient on NAEP
20
Achievement Gaps Are About More than Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other Disadvantaged Populations
Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/
Subgroup
4th Grade Math (2011)
4th Grade
Reading (2011)
4th Grade Science (2009)
8th Grade Math (2011)
8th Grade Reading
(2011)
8th Grade Science(2011)
All Students 53% 35% 43% 48% 39% 42%
Low Income 33% 17% 21% 26% 22% 24%
English Language Learners
25% 5% 6% 8% 6% n/a
Students with Disabilities
25% 13% 20% 14% 7% 15%
% At or Above Proficient on NAEP
21
HispanicBlack
WhiteAll
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
U.S.
MN
9%
7%
4%
6%
11%
3%3%4%
Teens Aged 16-19 Who Are Not in School and Not High School Graduates by Race, 2010
Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of Dropping Out
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high school graduates by race (Percent). http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/acrossstates/Rankings.aspx
22
Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Graduation Rates
Source: Education Week (2012). Graduation in the United States. http://www.edweek.org/ew/toc/2012/06/07/
American Indian
AsianHispanicBlackWhiteAll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
U.S.MN
53%
80%
63%59%
78%73%
76%85%
83%
n/a
Percent of On-Time High School Graduates, 2009
n/an/a
23
Achievement Gaps Continue Into Postsecondary: College Completion
Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.
American Indian
AsianHispanicBlackWhiteAll
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
U.S.MN
39%
66%
47%41%
59%56%
35%
54%51%
37%
63%60%
Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree
THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE: WE’RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOWWe’ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations for too long. As a result, too few graduates are successful and achieving college and career readiness.
25
Too Many Students Remain Off Track to Success: Of Every 100 9th Graders in Minnesota…
Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org
020406080
100100
85
5940
28
26
Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and Exceeding College and Career Readiness
Source: College Board (2012). AP Report to the Nation.http://apreport.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/downloads/pdfs/AP_Main_Report_Final.pdf
U.S.
Minnesota
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
18%18%
30%
28%
12th Graders who scored a 3+ on an AP Exam in High School
12th Graders who took an AP Exam in High School
Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2011)
27
Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark
Source: ACT (2012). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. http://www.act.org/newsroom/data/2012/benchmarks.html
EnglishReadingMathScienceAll 4 tests
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
U.S.MN
67%
52%
46%
31%25%
78%
64%62%
42%36%
Percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or exceeded the College Readiness Benchmark score, 2011
Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.
28
Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness in Minnesota
Source: Minnesota State Colleges and Universities http://www.mnscu.edu/media/newsreleases/2011/pdf/1_getting_prepared.pdf
Percentage of Minnesota’s students in two-year and four-year institutions in the requiring remediation
Four-YearTwo-Year
Both
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
29%
48%
38%
29
Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Retention Rates
Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates. http://www.higheredinfo.org/
Completion (4-Year)Persistence (4-
Year)Persistence (2-Year)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
U.S.
Minnesota
56%
77%
54%60%
78%
53%
30
Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses
Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve.
Series1
29%
32%
34%
62%
38%
41%
48%
72%
Students Who Did Not Go To CollegeCollege Students
Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area
Math
Science
English
Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work …
THE SUPPORT: STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR ACTIONResearch and polling demonstrates that students, teachers, parents, and the general public are dissatisfied with the status quo – and want to do something about it.
The Public on College and Career Readiness
32
69%
67%
Strongly Agree
Agree
To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some
education beyond high school, whether that means
university, community college, technical or vocational school.
To really get ahead in life, a person needs more
than just a high school education.
87%
89%
Source: Achieve (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf
Parents on College and Career Readiness
33Source: Civic Enterprises (2008). One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on America's High Schools. http://www.futurereadyproject.org/sites/frp/files/onedream.pdf
High-Performing SchoolsModerate-Performing
SchoolsLow-Performing Schools
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%86%
78%74% 66%
38%
18%
51%
25%
13%
Percentage of Parents Who Say…Very Important for child to get education that would lead to college
School does a very good job preparing child for college
School does a very good job preparing child for good job
34
The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do not expect to drop out of high school:
93 percent of middle school students report there is “no chance” they will drop out in high school.
94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year institution.
95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is “critical to their future success.”
Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed and Attend College
Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises, The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts, 2006; Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens, Teen Graduation Crisis Survey, 2009.
Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having Worked Harder – Or Having Been More Challenged – in High School
35Source: College Board (2011). One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members Of The High School Graduating Class Of 2010. http://www.collegeboard.org/OneYearOut
Series1
47%
35%
53%56%
Percent of 2010 Graduates Who Wish They Had Worked Harder In High School, by Postsecondary Enrollment
All Graduates Four-Year College Two-Year College No College/Other
36
Employers See the Value of Education – and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their Recent Hires
Source: Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011). Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap. www.civicenterprises.net/pdfs/across-the-great-divide.pdf & The Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008). The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided Workforce Readiness Training. www.shrm.org/Research/SurveyFindings/Articles/Documents/BED-09Workforce_RR.pdf
Series134%
22%
17%
51%
55%
51%
16%
24%
32%
Overall Preparation of New Work-force Entrants
Deficient Adequate
Excellent
2-Year College
High School
4-year College
More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%).
Executives also recognize increasing postsecondary experiences could affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).
Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda
37Sources: MetLife (2010). The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher. www.metlife.com/assets/cao/contributions/foundation/american-teacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdf & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's Teachers on America's School. www.scholastic.com/primarysources/pdfs/Scholastic_Gates_noapp_0310.pdf
69%
67%
74%
60%
Percent of Educators Who Agree That
High school is not preparing students for the workforce
It is important for all students to have one year or more of
postsecondary education to be prepared for a career
Clearer standards would make a strong or very strong impact on
student achievement
Common standards would have a strong or very strong impact
on student achievement
Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda
38Source: Achieve (2012) Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State Standards & Assessments. http://www.achieve.org/growingawarenessCCSS
Common Assessments
Common Core State Standards
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
7%8%
28%
20%
64%72%
Percentage of Teachers Who Favor/Oppose Implementing the Common Core and Common Assessments…
Don't Know/Not Sure Oppose Implementation
Support Implementation
25% Strongly
15% Strongly
33% Strongly
10% Strongly
THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.
40
The College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers.
Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma.
Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems.
Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.
41
Minnesota’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date
In 2006, Minnesota adopted college- and career-ready graduation requirements, including a requirement for all students to complete Algebra I in 8th grade. These requirements will first take effect for the Class 2015.
Minnesota adopted the Common Core State Standards in English Language Arts in September 2010. Minnesota had already adopted college- and career-ready standards in mathematics.
Minnesota has a P-20 longitudinal data system that regularly matches student-level data across K-12 and postsecondary data systems.
Minnesota is a Lead Partner State in the effort to develop the Next Generation Science Standards.
How Minnesota Can Continue to Build on its Momentum…
…Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes.
…Develop or adopt an assessment system capable of measuring college- and career-ready content that will let students know if they are ready for credit-bearing coursework before they graduate high school and this is honored by institutions of higher education as a placement instrument.
…Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders and linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data.
…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness, in alignment with the state’s standards and course requirements.
HOW WELL IS MINNESOTA
PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE,
CAREERS AND LIFE
September 2012