How to Pick Up Value Stock_page 2_ET Wealth 18 5 2015

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BSE 200 index through 10 filters (see graph- ic). With the application of each filter, some stocks dropped out. In the end we were left with just 14 scrips. Of these 14 stocks, we have looked in detail at the fundamentals of the 10 scrips most recommended by analysts (see tables). Value versus price The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book value (PBV) ratios are favourite tools of value investors. But a low PE or PBV alone does not make a value stock. In fact, such stocks could well be value traps. “Many PSU banks, lever- aged enterprises and real estate companies Here’s how we applied 10 filters to identify value stocks from the BSE 200 universe. HOW WE DID IT We started with the 200 stocks in the S&P BSE 200 index. Since it is a large cap index, small and mid- cap stocks get eliminated. To avoid value traps, only companies that made profits during the past five years were considered—29 companies fell out, leaving only 171 stocks. Of these profitable companies, only those with at least 10% annualised net profit growth were considered—67 companies fell out, leaving only 104 stocks. Next, only companies with positive operating margin were retained to ensure that the net profit is from business operations and not from other incomes—1 stock moved out, leaving 103 stocks. While profits are good, they must justify the investment in the business. Only stocks with at least 10% ROCE were kept—8 companies fell through, leaving us with 95 stocks. Also, the RONW should be at least 15% to ensure that only companies generating enough profits are considered. 17 companies moved out, leaving only 78 stocks. The next filter was a debt to equity ratio of less than 2. None of the companies had a debt- equity ratio of more than 2 so all 78 stocks remained. A good company can be a bad buy at a high price. Stocks with a PE of over 20 were kept out—40 high priced stocks fell out, leaving us with 18 stocks. Next, only stocks that paid dividends in the past five years and distributed at least 10% of their profits as dividend were kept—20 companies fell out, leaving us with 58 stocks. Another valuation metric is the price to book value (PBV). The PBV can vary greatly, so we kept a liberal cut off of 5. Three companies got dropped, leaving us with 15 stocks. Lastly, only stocks with a dividend yield of at least 1% were considered. One company moved out. Leaving us with 14 value picks. Of these, we have analysed 10 stocks for you in detail. These 10 stocks have been chosen on the basis of analysts’ recommendations. FOCUS ON LARGE CAPS STOCKS 200 200 AVOID VALUE TRAPS STOCKS 171 171 REASONABLE GROWTH RATE RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED RETURN ON NET WORTH POSITIVE OPERATING MARGINS LOW DEBT EQUITY RATIO DIVEDEND PAYMENT RECORD REASONABLE VALUATION NOT HIGH PRICE TO BOOK VALUE NOT LOW DIVIDEND YIELD STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS 104 104 95 95 78 78 103 103 78 58 18 15 14 The Economic Times Wealth, May 18-24, 2015 03 Cover Story

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Transcript of How to Pick Up Value Stock_page 2_ET Wealth 18 5 2015

  • BSE 200 index through 10 filters (see graph-ic). With the application of each filter, some stocks dropped out. In the end we were left with just 14 scrips. Of these 14 stocks, we have looked in detail at the fundamentals of the 10 scrips most recommended by analysts (see tables).

    Value versus price The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book value (PBV) ratios are favourite tools of value investors. But a low PE or PBV alone does not make a value stock. In fact, such stocks could well be value traps. Many PSU banks, lever-aged enterprises and real estate companies

    Heres how we applied 10 filters to identify value stocks

    from the BSE 200 universe.

    HOW WE DID IT

    We started with the 200 stocks in the S&P BSE 200 index. Since it is a large cap index, small and mid-cap stocks get eliminated.

    To avoid value traps, only companies that made profits during the past five years were considered29 companies fell out, leaving only 171 stocks.

    Of these profitable companies, only those with at least 10% annualised net profit growth were considered67 companies fell out, leaving only 104 stocks.

    Next, only companies with positive operating margin were retained to ensure that the net profit is from business operations and not from other incomes1 stock moved out, leaving 103 stocks.

    While profits are good, they must justify the investment in the business. Only stocks with at least 10% ROCE were kept8 companies fell through, leaving us with 95 stocks.

    Also, the RONW should be at least 15% to ensure that only companies generating

    enough profits are considered. 17 companies moved out, leaving only 78 stocks.

    The next filter was a debt to equity ratio of less than 2. None

    of the companies had a debt-equity ratio of more than 2 so

    all 78 stocks remained.

    A good company can be a bad buy at a high price. Stocks with a PE of over

    20 were kept out40 high priced stocks fell out, leaving us with 18

    stocks.

    Next, only stocks that paid dividends in the past five years and distributed

    at least 10% of their profits as dividend were kept20 companies fell out, leaving us with 58 stocks.

    Another valuation metric is the price to book value (PBV). The

    PBV can vary greatly, so we kept a liberal cut off of 5. Three companies got dropped, leaving

    us with 15 stocks.

    Lastly, only stocks with a dividend yield of at

    least 1% were considered. One

    company moved out. Leaving us with 14

    value picks.

    Of these, we have analysed 10 stocks for you in detail. These 10 stocks have been chosen on the basis of analysts recommendations.

    FOCUS ON LARGE CAPS

    S T O C K S200200

    AVOID VALUE TRAPS

    S T O C K S171171

    REASONABLE GROWTH RATE

    RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED

    RETURN ON NET WORTH

    POSITIVE OPERATING

    MARGINS

    LOW DEBT EQUITY RATIO

    DIVEDEND PAYMENT

    RECORD

    REASONABLE VALUATION

    NOT HIGH PRICE TO

    BOOK VALUE

    NOT LOW DIVIDEND

    YIELD

    S T O C K S

    S T O C K SS T O C K S

    S T O C K S

    S T O C K S

    S T O C K S

    S T O C K S

    S T O C K S

    S T O C K S

    104104

    95957878103103

    78

    58

    18

    15

    14

    The Economic Times Wealth, May 18-24, 2015 03Cover Story