How to grapple with science advice in ideological conflicts
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SCIENCE AND CITIZENSHeather Douglas
Waterloo Chair in Science & Society
July 23, 2014
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CONTROVERSY & DISTRUST
GMOs Climate Change Vaccines
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THREE MODELS
Deficit Model Scientific Illiteracy
Constructivist Model No special expertise
Framing Model Malleable humans
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PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS
Ignorant publics? All knowledge equal? Irrational publics? Perfectly informed scientists?
The problem of science in democracy
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THE NATURE OF SCIENCE
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WHAT IS SCIENCE?
Science is an empirical endeavor. Science builds theories that explain available
evidence. Science uses explanations to generate new
predictions. The new predictions guide new tests,
gathering new evidence. Science is always developing and changing.
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Evidence
Explanation
Prediction
THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS
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Evidence
Evidence
Explanation
Prediction
AN ITERATIVE PROCESS
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Evidence
Explanation
Evidence
Explanation
Prediction
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PredictionEvidence
Explanation
Evidence
Explanation
Prediction
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PredictionEvidence
Explanation
Evidence
Explanation
Prediction
Evidence
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SCIENCE AND UNCERTAINTY
Theories and explanations are always broader than the evidence they explain.
No theory is known with certainty. Theories are better or worse supported, and
have better or worse alternatives. Science is always open to challenge. Science’s uncertainty is the reason science is
robust!
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THE ROBUSTNESS OF SCIENCE
Why rely on science? Two reasons:1. The evidential basis of science Scientific claims and theories are always open to
empirical challenge.
2. The communal criticism of science Scientific communities should be open and
diverse. This helps them raise the broadest possible
challenges.
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THE IMPORTANT SCIENTIFIC LITERACY
The most important thing citizens need to understand: The Nature of Science Science is not fixed. Science is not complete.
Yet science is reliable generally. Because it is based on evidence. Because of the ongoing critique within the
scientific community.
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THE VALUE OF SCIENCE IN A DEMOCRACYReliable empirical knowledge needed for: Effective policy decisions Tracking the impact of public policy
(assessing governance) Rethinking the public-private boundary Assigning causation to assess
responsibility
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(MORE) THE VALUE OF SCIENCE
Challenging received wisdom on the nature of things
Bolstering economic development Shaping technological possibilities
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GROUNDS FOR CONTESTING SCIENCE
Science is important for all these things, but it can also be contested by citizens: Science is uncertain, so is the available evidence
sufficient? Have the right range of questions been asked?
Is scientific research focusing on the right problems and the right range of solutions?
Is the scientific community functioning properly (adequate criticism)?
Is the expertise reliable?
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CITIZENS AND SCIENCE
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HOW CAN CITIZENS ASSESS EXPERTS?
1. Do the experts have a Ph.D. in the appropriate area?
2. Are they publishing in their area of expertise?
3. Do they have integrity?4. Do they share citizens’ values?
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ASSESSING INTEGRITY
Integrity in science is having the proper regard for evidence.
Experts should change their minds when new evidence is presented OR be able to explain why the new evidence does not change their mind.
Experts should be able to say what evidence would change their minds.
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DETECTING A LACK OF INTEGRITY
An expert lacking integrity will: Ignore inconvenient evidence. Cherry-pick evidence. Depend upon flawed evidence. Not be able to imagine evidence that will change
their mind. Not respond to criticism.
A lack of integrity is discovered in a pattern of argumentation.
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ASSESSING VALUES?
If an expert has integrity, why does it matter whether the social and ethical values are shared?
Values help direct the questions being asked. Values help assess evidential sufficiency
through inductive risk.
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INDUCTIVE RISK
Is the evidence sufficient?
Depends on false positive-false negative trade-off.
It depends on our values.
Is this evidence enough?
Value
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CITIZEN QUERIES FOR SCIENCE
1. First: Is the research being done with integrity? Is the scientific community properly critical?
2. Second: Are the right questions being asked in
research? Is inductive risk being handled properly?
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ADDRESSING CONTROVERSIES
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HOW SHOULD SCIENCE ENGAGE CITIZENS DURING A CONTROVERSY?
Rather than presume ignorance, irrationality, or malleability of the public, assess the source of controversy.
Why are citizens distrustful of science in the particular cases?
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THREE REASONS TO DISTRUST/IGNORE SCIENCE WITH INTEGRITY
1. Science vs. Faith: The issue rests on an article of faith.
2. The Research Agenda: Scientists have not yet studied the central concern.
3. Inductive Risk: Scientists are not weighing the risks of error appropriately.
Each of these reasons calls for a different response.
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1. SCIENCE VS. FAITH
Different topics? Different authorities? Different epistemic stances Science: Everything is open to evidential
challenge. Faith: Evidence is irrelevant. Belief exists in
the face of evidence to the contrary.
Problem: Public decisions when faith is not shared...
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1. FAITH & SCIENTIFIC CONTROVERSIES
Examples: Climate change: “God won’t let us change the
climate.” GMOs: “We should not alter nature.” Vaccines: “My body is inviolate.”
Response: If issue is private, no problems arise. If issue is public, arguments must be public. The
public must decide whether to settle the matter on the basis of faith or science.
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2. THE RESEARCH AGENDA
Are scientists addressing what the public is worried about?
Examples (historical): GMOs: What will be the impact of IP on
farming practices? Climate change: How will climate change
impact my region? Vaccines: What alternatives to mercury
preservatives are there? Response: Do research to address concerns!
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3. THE WEIGHING OF INDUCTIVE RISKS
Is the available evidence sufficient for accepting the scientific theory?
What are the risks of false positives or false negatives?
Examples: GMOs: Do we have enough evidence that gene
transfer in this instance will not be a problem? Climate change: Do we have enough evidence
to take expensive action? Vaccines: Do we have enough evidence to trust
that the vaccine is safe and effective?
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A BETTER EXAMPLE: NEONICOTINOIDS & BEE HEALTH
Neonicotinoids are a very effectivepesticide that coats seeds and protects the entire plant.
They end up in the pollen too. They are neurotoxic and
immunological suppressants. First used in the 1990s, they became widespread
by 2000. Bee population difficulties appeared as the use of
neonicotinoids rose. Recent controlled studies show a correlation
between exposure and bee colony collapse disorder.
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IS THE EVIDENCE ENOUGH TO PULL THEM FROM THE MARKET?
Yes: Bee health is in serious decline where these pesticides have become widespread, and pollinators are crucial to our food supply.
No: There are contradicting studies (although not without conflicts of interest) and farmers depend on these pesticides for increased crop yields.
Balancing risks of error (false positive and false negatives) influences the answer.
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DEALING WITH INDUCTIVE RISK
Responses: Ask what evidence would be persuasive (also
crucial for integrity). Discuss values openly: can greater
agreement on values be reached? Seek policies that preserve strong value
considerations rather than demanding trade-offs
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PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT
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MODES OF ENGAGEMENT
Citizen Science
Public Forums
Deliberative Forums
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SCIENCE & DEMOCRACY
Whose values? Scientists don’t demographically represent
the public. Scientists often have their own disciplinary
values. Generating genuine public engagement is
the challenge.
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THE NATURE OF THE PUBLIC
Preferences ill-formed Not well-informed about
science generally
BUT, Capable of learning specifics Capable of understanding science Capable of grappling with trade-offs
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DELIBERATIVE FORUMS
A range of research by social scientists over the past 20 years
Analytic-deliberative processes, collaborative analysis,
citizen juries, etc. Stakeholders
OR citizen panels
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BENEFITS OF DELIBERATIVE FORUMS
Participants gain greater understanding of science, through direct engagement with expertise
Experts gain local insight from members of the public Actual farming practices Better tidal current data
Value judgments clarified Representative process possible– genuinely
democratic! Trust is cultivated.
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CONCLUSIONS
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THE AGENDA
Educate the public on the nature of science Be clear when issue is matter of faith or
matter of science Demand intellectual integrity from everyone
Think through what evidence might be convincing
Pay attention to the range of concerns present with an issue
Pay attention to the ethical values involved with weighing inductive risks
Construct social forums where genuine dialogue can occur
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THE RESULTS?
A citizenry that understands what science is and why it is important
A body of research that can be used to inform public decisions
Advice that is scientifically legitimate and democratically accountable