How to fix the elevator problem? - UNECE€¦ · How to fix the elevator problem? ... Thinking in...
16
How to fix the elevator problem? Approaches to sustainable resource management 29 April – 3 May 2019, Palais des Nations, Geneva
Transcript of How to fix the elevator problem? - UNECE€¦ · How to fix the elevator problem? ... Thinking in...
How to fix the elevator problem?Approaches to sustainable resource management
29 April – 3 May 2019, Palais des Nations, Geneva
Elevator rageHow to solve an engineering problem?
2
Source: Daniel Catalan, OECD Observer (2017)
3
UNITED NATIONS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
SystemWhy they are so counter intuitive?
A set of elements or parts that is coherently organized and inter-
connected in a pattern or structure that produces a characteristic set of
behaviors, often classified as its “function” or “purpose.”
4
Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A
Primer (2008)
The Middle KingdomA realm full of surprises
5Gerald Weinberg, An Introduction to General
Systems Thinking (2001)
Mediocristan Vs ExtremistanThe Bell Curve Vs 80:20 Rule
Mediocristan
Mild Randomness
Most typical member is mediocre
Easy to predict
Normal curves
Total = many small events
Extremistan
Extreme Randomness
No typical member
Hard to predict
Pareto curves
Total = a couple of huge events
6Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things
That Gain from Disorder (2012)
A new kind of science?The science of emergence is based on a few simple rules
7
Keep a minimum distance
Keep a maximum distance
Imitate your neighbour
No one is in charge!
Léo GrassetBarbara Mellor, How the Zebra Got Its Stripes:
Darwinian Stories Told Through Evolutionary Biology (2017)
Steven Johnson, Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants,
Brains, Cities, and Software (2012)
Stephen Wolfram, A New Kind of Science, (2002)
A system is more than the sum of its parts
Many of the interconnections in systems operate through the flow of information
The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose, is often the most crucial determinant of the system’s behaviour
System structure is the source of system behavior. System behavior reveals itself as a series of events over time
More than the sum of its partsSystem creates the behaviour
8
Three basic featuresCause and effect are often separated in time and space
9
Growing action
Slowing action
Peter M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The
Learning Organization (2010)
Boom and Bust CyclesLimits to growth archetype
10
Oil dependenceShifting the burden archetype
11
Systems view of classificationSnap shots Vs Running Movie
12
Three types of classification
Multiple theories of categorization
Peter Morville,
Intertwingled:
Information
Changes Everything
(2014)
Science, innovation and progressReductionism is important. So is systems thinking.
13
Wheels ~8000 years ago
TodayYesterday
MindsetWe can be blind to the obvious, and we are blind to our blindness
14
15
Smarter than the sum of its parts.
Thank you
Hari Tulsidas
Economic Affairs Officer
UNECE
29 April – 3 May 2019, Palais des Nations, Geneva
