How to Find The Fringe - Forecasting the Future
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Transcript of How to Find The Fringe - Forecasting the Future
The Signals Are TalkingWhy Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream
Harvard Business Review Micro-Class on Facebook LiveDecember 13, 2016
Me: 3 Things
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Futurist – Technology, Business, SocietyFounder of the Future Today Institute. We answer “What’s the Future of X” for Fortune 100 + Global 1000 companies, universities, government agencies, large foundations, media companies.
3 New BookThe Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream
Adjunct Professor – FuturismAdjunct Prof. @ NYU Stern School of Business
Overview of the Future Today Institute’s forecasting methodology
Essential futurist’s tool: Fringe Sketch
Can’t see beyond what you currently know to be true. You fear or reject new ideas.
Paradox of the Present
Lesson from Flying Cars
Avoid the Paradox of the Present.Keep an open mind. Try new things.
Ask questions. Seek out peopledoing unusual research at the fringes.
Strategic Thinking Framework
1. A trend is driven by a basic human need, one that is catalyzed by new technology.
2. A trend is timely, but it persists.
3. A trend evolves as it emerges.
4. A trend can materialize as a series of un-connectable dots which begin out on the fringe and move to the mainstream.
What is a real trend?
In order to forecast the future, we must listen for signals at the fringe, where new technology begins and follow trends to the mainstream.
To find the Fringe, you must seek out unusual suspects and think very broadly. You must
do this with an open mind.
• USPTO.gov• arXiv.org• JSTOR.org• Reddit• DIY labs, makerspaces• Hacker communities• (Good use for Nuzzel)• Pre-publication academic research• Conference livestreams (academic, industry-specific), agendas• Traditional media sources, too, but not your primary source
Where to start
Futurist’s Tool
Finding the Fringe: 5 Guiding Questions
1. Who has been working directly and indirectly in this space?
2. Who has been funding or otherwise encouraging experimentation in this space?
3. Who might be directly impacted by this?
4. Who might be incentivized to work against this, either because they stand to gain or lose something?
5. Who might see this as a starting point for something bigger andbetter?
It’s best to sketchin a group…with 5-6 people
who work in differentfields and have different perspectives than you.
futuretodayinstitute.com [email protected] @amywebb267-342-4300