How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

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Become a Web 2.0 Jedi: How to Use the Force of Product & Marketing Metrics to Optimize Your Business Web 2.0 Expo Apr 3, 2009 #w2e #metrics

description

How to use metrics to optimize your product, marketing, and business by Dave McClure, Dan Olsen, and Ted Rheingold at O'Reilly San Francisco Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009.

Transcript of How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Page 1: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Become a Web 2.0 Jedi:How to Use the Force of Product & Marketing

Metrics to Optimize Your Business

Web 2.0 ExpoApr 3, 2009#w2e #metrics

Page 2: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Startup Metrics for Pirates:AARRR!

Web 2.0 Expo SFApril 2009

Dave McClure, Founders Fundhttp://www.foundersfund.com/

http://500hats.typepad.com/http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats/

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Startup Metrics: The Basics

• Measure Stuff. Keep It Simple.• 5 Steps: Startup Metrics for Pirates (AARRR!)• 3 Metrics Frameworks + 3 Roles (CEO, Dev/Product, Marketing)• Iterate & Optimize. Feedback Loop. (Loop. Loop.)• One Step at a Time. The “Ass vs. Face” Issue.

Appendix (we won’t have time)• Activation• Retention• Acquisition• Referral• Revenue

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Web 2.0: Hell Yes, Good Times.

1. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.2. Lower Startup Costs = Badder.3. PPC, E-Com $ Growing = Uncut.

Collect Usage Metrics in Real-Time Decisions Based on Measured User Behavior

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The Startup Metrics Religion

• Progress ≠ Features (Less = More)• Focus on User Experience• Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options• Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop)• Keep it Simple & Actionable

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Optimize 4 Happiness (both User + Business)

• Define States of User + Business Value• Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State• Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value• Optimize for User Happiness / Business $$$• Achieve Low Cost + High Value @ Scale

$$$

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Discover MeaningKeywords, Images, Call-to-Action

Top 10 - 100 words• Your Brand / Products• Customer Needs / Benefits• Competitor’s Brand / Products• Semantic Equivalents• Misspellings

Relevant images• People• Products• Problems• Solutions

Call-to-Action• Words• Images• Context• Button/Link• Emotion

Result• Positive?• Negative?• Neutral (= Death)• A/B test & Iterate

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Startup Metrics for Pirates: AARRR!

• Acquisition: users come to site from various channels• Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience• Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times• Referral: users like product enough to refer others• Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior

AARRR!

(note: If you’re in a hurry, watch 5 min video after slide 23)

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AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model

Website.com

Revenue $$$

Biz DevAds, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce

ACQUISITION

SEOSEM

Apps & Widgets

Affiliates

Email

PR Biz Dev

Campaigns, Contests

Direct, Tel, TV

Social Networks

Blogs

Domains

Retention

Emails & Alerts

System Events & Time-based

Features

Blogs, RSS, News Feeds

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Q: What’s My Business Model?

Can be one of the following:1. Get Users (= Acquisition, Referral)2. Drive Usage (= Activation, Retention)3. Make Money (= Revenue*)

* ideally profitable revenue

Note: eventually need to turn Users/Usage -> Money

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Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics.Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...?

Q: Which of these is best? How do you know?• 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors• 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec• 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button• 20,000 registered users w/ email address• 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo.• 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo

the good stuff.

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3 Core Models:biz model, conversion dashboard, mktg channels

• Define 1-Page Biz Model: customer segments + desired actions / behaviors• Identify critical Conversion Events & Dashboard for each segment & prioritize• Test & develop Marketing Channels; measure Volume (#), Cost ($), Conv (%)

Optimize product & marketing using Fast Iteration Cycles & A/B Testing

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Role: Founder/CEOQ: Which Metrics? Why?A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics

(if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable)

• Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle• Target ~3-5 Conversion Events (tip: Less = More)

• Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve

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The 1-Page Business Model(Users + Conversions + Priorities)

Q1: What types of people use your website? • Visitor = Average User / Buyer• Contributor = Content Contributor / Seller• Distributor = Passionate Fan (unpaid) / Affiliate (paid)

Q2: What actions could they take to help you or them ?

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TeachStreet 1-Page Business Model:Teachers & Students

Teachers StudentsActivati

on•Claim Profile

•Add Class•Contact Teacher

•View 3 PagesRetenti

on•Visit 1x/mo for 3

mo’s•Visit 1x/mo for 3

mo’s Referral •Request Review •Suggest

Teacher

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Role: Product / Engineering

Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”?A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that

Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates)

• Wireframes = Conversion Steps• Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly)• Optimize for Conversion Improvement

– 80% on existing feature optimization– 20% on new feature development

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Example Conversion Dashboard(note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary)Stage Conversion Status Conv.

%Est. Value

(*not* cost)

Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page(2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t

abandon)

60% $.05

Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup(clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature

usage)

15% $.25

Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits(1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR)

5% $1

Referral Users Refer Others(cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; )

1% $5

Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$(first txn, break-even, target profitability)

2% $50

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Role: Marketing / SalesQ: What channels? Which users? Why?A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%)

• Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns• Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes• Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page• Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential

• Low-Hanging Fruit: – Blogs– SEO/SEM– Landing Pages– Automated Emails

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Example Marketing Channels• PR• Contest• Biz Dev• Direct Marketing• Radio / TV / Print• Dedicated Sales• Telemarketing

• Email• SEO / SEM• Blogs / Bloggers• Viral / Referral• Affiliate / CPA• Widgets / Apps• LOLCats ;)

Page 20: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

MAARRRketing PlanMarketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels

• 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)• Measure conversion to target customer actions• Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs)

[Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential• Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV)• Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV

Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs• Actual $ expenses• Marketing time & resources• Product/Engineering time & resources• Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit

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One Step at a Time.

1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability

“You probably can’t save your Ass and your Face at the same time… choose carefully.” – DMC

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Summary

• Measure Stuff. Keep It Simple.• 5 Steps: Startup Metrics for Pirates (AARRR!)• 3 Items: Biz Model, Conversion, Mktg Channels• Iterate & Optimize. Feedback Loop. (Loop. Loop).• One Step at a Time.

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Links & Resources

Additional References:

• “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion”, Robert Cialdini (book)

• “Putting the Fun in Functional”, Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso)

• “Futuristic Play”, Andrew Chen (blog)

• “Don’t Make Me Think”, Steve Krug (book)

• “Designing for the Social Web”, Joshua Porter (book, website)

• “Startup Lessons Learned”, Eric Ries (blog)

• “Customer Development Methodology” Steve Blank (presentation, blog)

• “Startup-Marketing.com”, Sean Ellis (blog)

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Dan OlsenDan OlsenCEO, YourVersionCEO, YourVersion

Web 2.0 ExpoWeb 2.0 ExpoApr 3, 2009Apr 3, 2009

How to Use the Force of Metrics How to Use the Force of Metrics to Optimize your Web 2.0 Productto Optimize your Web 2.0 Product

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The Force of Metrics is Real

The Force of Metrics? Really?

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Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Approaching Your Product and Approaching Your Product and Business as an Optimization ExerciseBusiness as an Optimization Exercise

Given reality as it exists today,Given reality as it exists today,optimize our resultsoptimize our resultssubject to our resource constraints.subject to our resource constraints.

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Profit = Profit = RevenueRevenue - Cost - Cost

Unique VisitorsUnique Visitors x x Ad Revenue per VisitorAd Revenue per Visitor

Impressions/VisitorImpressions/Visitor x Effective CPM / 1000 x Effective CPM / 1000

Visits/Visitor x Pageviews/Visit x Impressions/PVVisits/Visitor x Pageviews/Visit x Impressions/PV

New VisitorsNew Visitors + Returning Visitors + Returning Visitors

Invited VisitorsInvited Visitors + Uninvited Visitors + Uninvited Visitors

# of Users Sending Invites x Invites Sent/User x Invite Conversion Rate# of Users Sending Invites x Invites Sent/User x Invite Conversion Rate

Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Define the Equation of your BusinessDefine the Equation of your Business“Peeling the Onion”“Peeling the Onion”

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Create ratios from primary metrics: X / YCreate ratios from primary metrics: X / Y Example: Example: How good is your registration page?How good is your registration page? Okay:Okay: # of registered users per day# of registered users per day Better:Better: registration conversion rate =registration conversion rate =

# registered users / # uniques to reg page# registered users / # uniques to reg page

Need third-party analytic tools PLUS home-grown metricsNeed third-party analytic tools PLUS home-grown metrics Track each metric as daily time seriesTrack each metric as daily time series

Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

How to Track Your MetricsHow to Track Your Metrics

DateDateUnique Unique VisitorsVisitors

Page Page viewsviews

Ad Ad RevenueRevenue

New User New User Sign-upsSign-ups ……

4/24/084/24/08 10,10010,100 29,60029,600 2525 490490

4/25/084/25/08 10,50010,500 27,10027,100 2424 480480

……

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Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Analyzing the Value of Product Ideas Importance and Satisfaction

To offer a good customer value proposition:Meet High Importance needs with High Satisfaction

98

8784

8679 847055 80

7280

75

4150

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Satisfaction

Impo

rtan

ce

See Anthony Ulwick’s “What Customers Want”

BadBad

GreatGreat

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Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Prioritizing Product Ideas by ROIPrioritizing Product Ideas by ROI

Investment (developer-weeks)

Retu

rn (V

alue

Cre

ated

)

Idea C

Idea B

Idea D

Idea A

Idea F

1

1

2 3 4

2

3

4?

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Marrying UI Design with Metrics Think of “Ease of use”

as distinct from the functionality

User Interface elements matter Position Layout Size Color Font Text copy Interaction design Navigation

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Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Improving Signup Page ConversionImproving Signup Page Conversion

Daily Signup Page Yield vs. TimeNew Registered Users divided by Unique Visitors to Signup Page

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1/31 2/14 2/28 3/14 3/28 4/11 4/25 5/9 5/23 6/6 6/20 7/4 7/18 8/1 8/15 8/29 9/12 9/26 10/10

Dai

ly S

ignu

p Pa

ge Y

ield

Changedmessaging

Added questionsto signup page

Started requiringregistration

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Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

OpenAccount

Sign in

Account Selection

Register

56%

44%

Forget Password

Registration Process

45% drop off(20% of total)

36% overall drop off for

this step

70%(32% of Total)

17% drop off (10% of total)

20% drop off(6% of total)

30%(14% of Total)

80%(26% of Total)

55%(24% of Total)

64%of Total

Improving Sign In/Registration FlowImproving Sign In/Registration Flow

Change Password

83%(46% of Total)

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Abandonment Rate (7 Day Moving Average)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

10/7

/02

10/1

4/02

10/2

1/02

10/2

8/02

11/4

/02

11/1

1/02

11/1

8/02

11/2

5/02

12/2

/02

12/9

/02

12/1

6/02

12/2

3/02

12/3

0/02

1/6/

03

1/13

/03

1/20

/03

Aba

ndon

men

t Rat

e (7

Day

Mov

ing

Ave

rage

)

Steps 1-2

Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Redesigned User Flow Improved Redesigned User Flow Improved Registration Conversion RateRegistration Conversion Rate

37% improvement in conversion rate

ReleasedNew Design

Page 35: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Optimization through Iteration:Optimization through Iteration:Continuous ImprovementContinuous Improvement

Measurethe metric

Analyzethe metric

Identify top opportunities

to improve

Design & develop the enhancement

Launch theenhancement

Learning

Gaining knowledge:

• Market

• Customer

• Domain

• Usability

Page 36: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Copyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2009 Olsen Solutions LLC

Summary: Using the Force of MetricsSummary: Using the Force of Metrics

Define what success meansDefine what success means Equation of your businessEquation of your business Customer value propositionCustomer value proposition

Instrument your site and track key metricsInstrument your site and track key metrics Identify opportunities and prioritize by ROIIdentify opportunities and prioritize by ROI Launch, learn, and iterateLaunch, learn, and iterate

Page 37: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

[email protected]@yourversion.com@danolsen@danolsen

www.yourversion.comwww.yourversion.comMay the Force May the Force of Metrics be of Metrics be

with you!with you!

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Dogster, Inc. Case StudyTed Rheingold

blog.dogster.com / @tedr

How actionable metrics informed us we were chasing our tail the wrong key results yet still guided us to the primary objective … bacon making money

Page 39: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)
Page 40: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Dogster, Inc.Sites & Services• Dogster.com, Catster.com, Snuzzy.com• Togethertag.com

5 year old profitable business. No VC, Angel onlyPrimary Revenue Source• Directly sold ad inventory

Secondary Sources• User subscriptions• Virtual currency• Together Tag (Physical dog & cat ID tags w/ always-on web

connecting service)

Page 41: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Marketing Initiative Feb ‘07Goal: 2,000 New Registrants a Day

Marketed sites via AdSense and BlogAdsAt launch we linked ads to our homepagesQuickly made a general landing page with intro info and big link to registerThen made dynamic landing with relevant text and registration form.This significantly increased percentage of ad clickers that became registrants

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LANDING PAGE Welcome

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Landing Page Cute Overload

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LANDING PAGE Daily Candy

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LADING PAGE Dog Info

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REGISTRATION PAGE -Activate

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Quantitative Success Doesn’t Mean Qualitative Success

We hit key result of 2k registrants a dayBUT only 60% were activatingOnly 8% we’re making profile pages vs. 80% that found site on their ownReal members were generating a $4 ARPU, these were worth $0.10

Page 48: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Actionable Results

Within 3 months we halted all ad spending.

We were sitting on a treasure trove of what topics engaged pet people the most.

We could drive a lot of uniques to our sites and advertisers love uniques

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HOMEPAGE - Current

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CRAZY EGG Searchers

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Dogster Search Traffic

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Ted Rheingold Top Dog, Dogster, Inc.

blog.dogster.comtwitter: @tedr

Web2Expo - 2009

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Questions? #metrics@davemcclure @danolsen @tedr

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Copyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLC

Kano Model: User Needs & SatisfactionUser SatisfactionUser Satisfaction

User DissatisfactionUser Dissatisfaction

Performance Performance (more is better)(more is better)

Delighter (wow)Delighter (wow)

NeedNeednot metnot met

NeedNeedfully metfully met

Must HaveMust Have

Needs & features Needs & features migrate over timemigrate over time

Page 55: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Copyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLC

Is the site up when I want to use it?

Is the site fast enough?

Does the functionality work?

Does the functionality meet my needs?

Olsen’s Hierarchy of Web User Needs(adapted from Maslow)

Customer’s Perspective What does it mean to us?

Uptime

Page Load Time

Absence of Bugs

Feature Set

Usability & Design

Decreasing

Dissatisfaction

Increasing S

atisfaction

How easy to use is it?

Page 56: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Copyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLC

Adding Metrics and Optimization to your Product Process

PlanPlan

DesignDesign

DevelopDevelop

BusinessObjectives

ProductObjectives

Prioritized Feature List

Scoping

Requirements & Design

Code Test Launch

Site Level

Feature Level

OptimizeOptimize Metrics & User Feedback

Page 57: How to be a Web 2.0 Metrics Jedi  (Web 2.0 Expo, April 2009)

Copyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLCCopyright © 2008 Olsen Solutions LLC

Using Metrics to Optimize the Using Metrics to Optimize the Equation of your BusinessEquation of your Business

What are the metrics for your business?What are the metrics for your business? Where is current value for each metric? Where is current value for each metric? How many resources to “move” each metric?How many resources to “move” each metric?

Developer-hours, time, moneyDeveloper-hours, time, money Which metrics have highest ROI opportunities?Which metrics have highest ROI opportunities?

Retu

rnRe

turn

InvestmentInvestment

Retu

rnRe

turn

InvestmentInvestmentRe

turn

Retu

rnInvestmentInvestment

Metric AMetric AGood ROIGood ROI

Metric BMetric BBad ROIBad ROI

Metric CMetric CGreat ROIGreat ROI