How The World and the EU Sees the U.S., Donald Trump and Trade · During Trump’s Second Year...

How The World and the EU Sees the U.S., Donald Trump and Trade

Bruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes Brussels 10/4/18

2

Pew Research Center

• Established 1996

• Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations

• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington

• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 108 countries

• www.pewresearch.org

• @pewresearch

http://www.pewresearch.org/

About the 2018 Survey

3

27,612 interviews conducted from May 14 to August 12, 2018 in 31 languages

Face-to-face countries

Telephone countries In each country,

samples are representative of the adult (18+)

population

• Canada • Sweden

• France • United Kingdom

• Germany • Japan

• Netherlands • South Korea

• Spain • Australia

• Argentina • Russia

• Brazil • Indonesia

• Mexico • Philippines

• Greece • Israel

• Hungary • Tunisia

• Italy • Kenya

• Poland • Nigeria

• South Africa

• Additional data from a telephone survey of 1,500 U.S. adults conducted from May 14- June 15, 2018

U.S. FAVORABILITY

4

October 5, 2018 5

U.S. Favorability in Europe Favorable views of U.S.

October 5, 2018 6

Views of the U.S. Are Quite Sour Among Some of America’s Closest European Allies

Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

Unfavorable Favorable

Views of the U.S.

18%

30

39

43

50

54

60

59

62

66

52

70%

63

52

50

44

42

38

36

34

30

43

Poland

Hungary

Italy

UK

Sweden

Spain

France

Greece

Netherlands

Germany

MEDIAN

End of Obamapresidency* 2017 2018

17-18Change

Obama-18Change

% % %

Netherlands 65 37 34 -3 -31

Germany 57 35 30 -5 -27

Sweden 69 45 44 -1 -25

France 63 46 38 -8 -25

Italy 72 61 52 -9 -20

Spain 59 31 42 +11 -17

UK 61 50 50 0 -11

Poland 74 73 70 -3 -4

Greece 38 43 36 -7 -2

Hungary 62 63 63 0 -1

October 5, 2018 7

But There Has Been Little Overall Change in the U.S. Image During Trump’s Second Year

*Obama presidency figures are based on the most recently available data for each country between 2014 and 2016.Note: Significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

October 5, 2018 8

In Many Countries, the Young Are More Positive Than Older Generations on U.S.

Note: Only statistically significant differences shown.

Favorable views of the U.S.

October 5, 2018 9

Those on the Political Right More Favorable Toward the U.S.

Note: Only statistically significant differences shown.

Favorable view of U.S.

Unfavorable view of party

Favorable view of party Diff

% %France Republicains 31 53 +22

National Front 36 57 +21En Marche 34 45 +11Socialist Party 39 37 -2Insoumise 41 35 -6

UK Conservative Party 41 63 +22UKIP 45 61 +16

Liberal Democrats 47 53 +6Labour Party 51 47 -4

Germany AfD 26 43 +17CDU 27 33 +6SPD 28 31 +3Green 30 29 -1Die Linke 31 28 -3

October 5, 2018 10

Views of the U.S. Also Vary by Support for European PartiesFavorable view of U.S., among those with a/an …

Note: Statistically significant differences shown in bold.

Many Europeans View Relations With the U.S. as Unchanged Since 2017, Although Sentiment is Much Worse in Germany

October 5, 2018 11

Relations between our country and the U.S. have __ over the past year


80%

43

42

39

27

23

21

21

18

10

25

15%

50

49

48

59

57

43

50

66

69

50

4%

5

8

12

14

12

28

23

14

19

13

Germany

Netherlands

Sweden

UK

France

Italy

Poland

Hungary

Spain

Greece

MEDIAN

Gotten worse

Stayed about the same

Gotten better

CONFIDENCE IN PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

12

October 5, 2018 13

Confidence in Trump Remains Low in Key EU Countries


Confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs

10 Germany20

2630

51

0

100

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

%

28 UK

7 Spain

Bush Obama Trump2018

9 France

October 5, 2018 14

Overall, Eight-in-Ten Europeans Lack Confidence in Trump


How much confidence do you have in U.S. President Donald Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs?

93%

90

90

83

82

81

70

70

60

56

82

7%

9

10

17

17

19

27

28

31

35

18

Spain

France

Germany

Greece

Sweden

Netherlands

Italy

UK

Hungary

Poland

MEDIAN

ConfidenceNo confidence

October 5, 2018 15

Supporters of Right-Wing Populist Parties Are More Likely to Have Confidence in Trump

Confidence in U.S. President Donald Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs among those with a/an…

Note: Only statistically significant differences shown. Party favorability question fielded as “Northern League” in Italy (now called League) and “National Front” in France (now called National Rally).

60

4538 42

3730 31

64 63 62

52 53 51 5057

3530

51

33 3025

1914

93 90 88 87 88

71 73

86

11 100

100

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Favorable view of U.S.

Confidence in U.S. president

%

Bush Obama Trump2018

October 5, 2018 16

And Views of the U.S. President Affect Favorability of the U.S. Among Germans…

U.S. SOFT POWER AND AMERICA’S ROLE IN THE WORLD

17

65

49

7079

67 Poland

0

100

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

%

43 UK

69

October 5, 2018 18

A Shrinking Share of the Public in the EU Believes the U.S. Respects Its Own Citizen’s Personal Freedoms


U.S. government respects the personal freedoms of its people

40 France35 Germany31 Spain

October 5, 2018 19

Fewer Now Say U.S. Takes Into Account Their Interests In making international policy decisions, the U.S. takes into account the interests of countries like ours a great

deal/fair amount

October 5, 2018 20

Roughly Half of Europeans Say the U.S. is Less Involved in Tackling Global Issues


About the same

Compared with a few years ago, the U.S. is doing __ to help address major global problems

75%

75

62

55

53

49

36

35

25

22

14%

18

25

31

39

40

33

42

57

45

6%

5

12

11

6

8

14

13

8

22

Germany

Sweden

Netherlands

UK

France

Spain

Italy

Hungary

Greece

Poland

Less More

October 5, 2018 21

In Europe, China Seen as Playing a Larger Global Role, Not the U.S.


U.S. China Russia

37%

31

31

29

28

27

24

21

20

16

Poland

Italy

Greece

Hungary

Spain

UK

Netherlands

France

Sweden

Germany

81

79

78

76

73

70

70

70

60

Sweden

Greece

Netherlands

France

Spain

Germany

Italy

Hungary

UK

Poland

65%

51

48

48

46

46

44

43

42

40

Greece

France

UK

Netherlands

Hungary

Sweden

Poland

Germany

Italy

Spain

Those saying __ plays a more important role in the world today compared to 10 years ago

84%

October 5, 2018 22

Europeans Say Germany, Not the UK or France, Plays a Larger World Role


Germany France UK

56

55

51

47

46

42

42

38

37

Greece

Spain

Italy

Germany

Netherlands

Poland

France

Hungary

Sweden

UK

24%

23

22

21

21

20

16

15

10

9

Greece

UK

Spain

Italy

Poland

Hungary

Sweden

Netherlands

Germany

France

Those saying __ plays a more important role in the world today compared to 10 years ago

81%

30

27

26

25

25

22

20

20

17

Germany

Greece

Italy

France

Sweden

Spain

Netherlands

UK

Poland

Hungary

33%

October 5, 2018 23

Nevertheless, In Europe, Canada Large Majorities Prefer U.S. Leadership


It would be better for the world to have __ as the leading power

71%

76

71

68

67

65

63

58

45

45

37

64

13

13%

10

13

27

17

14

12

24

29

47

46

21

53

15%

14

16

6

17

21

26

19

26

9

17

17

35

Canada

Sweden

Netherlands

Poland

UK

France

Spain

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Italy

MEDIAN

Russia

U.S. Both/Neither/DK/Refused China

IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID

24

October 5, 2018 25

U.S., EU, Japanese Economic Sentiment Is Now More Positive Than at Any Time Since 2002

The current economic situation in our country is good

Note: EU median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

46

50

65 U.S.

3636

46 EU

6

28

44 Japan

0

100

2002 2008 2013

%

2018

October 5, 2018 26

People Who Think Their Economy is Doing Well Are More Likely to Believe Trade Creates Jobs, Raises Wages

Trade with other countries …

Note: Percentages are global medians based on 24 countries. Greece, Tunisia and Brazil not included in medians due to insufficient sample size.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

53%

4339%

29

Creates jobs Increases wages

Among those who say the economy is good

Among those who say the economy is bad

AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON TRADE

June 22, 2017 27

October 5, 2018 28

Americans Are Less Convinced Than Others Trade is Good

Growing trade and business ties with other countries is a good thing for our country

Note: Nine-country median based on Argentina, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Korea and the UK.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

78

5953

65 66 6874

8778 81 81 84

7883

2002 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Nine-country median

U.S.

October 5, 2018 29

Americans Have Consistently Felt Better About Trade Than About Trade Agreements

__ is/are good for the U.S.

Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey. “Free trade agreement” data from May 2018 Pew Research Center survey.

78

5953

65 66 6874

49

34

44

47 47

44 4440

35

5243

35

48

59 585150

4552 56

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Free trade agreements

Trade

2018

October 5, 2018 30

Americans Are Twice as Likely to Believe Trade is Good for the U.S. as to Think It Creates Jobs or Raises Wages



Does not make a difference

25 24Does not make a difference


28 25

74

21

2014 2018

68%

28%

20

36

50

34

2014 2018

17

31

45

31

2014 2018

35 37

32 32

2014 2018

Decreases pricesIncreases prices

Increases wagesDecreaseswages

Creates jobs

Destroys jobs

Is good

Is bad

2014 2018 Change

% %

TOTAL 50 34 -16

Men 46 30 -16

Women 55 39 -16

18-29 43 30 -13

30-49 50 36 -14

50+ 55 34 -21

Hispanic 37 21 -16

Black 59 42 -17

White 53 35 -18

Rep/Lean Rep 51 35 -16

Dem/Lean Dem 48 33 -15

October 5, 2018 31

In 2018 Fewer Americans Believe Trade Destroys JobsTrade with other countries leads to job losses in the U.S.

Note: Statistically significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

2014 2018 Change% %

TOTAL 45 31 -14Men 43 30 -13Women 48 33 -1518-29 43 25 -1830-49 44 35 -950+ 48 32 -16Hispanic 25 21 -4Black 44 39 -5White 50 32 -18Rep/Lean Rep 42 31 -11Dem/Lean Dem 46 31 -15

October 5, 2018 32

Men, Women, Young, Old, GOP and Dems Are Less Likely Than in the Past to Believe Trade Lowers Wages

Trade with other countries leads to a decrease in wages in the U.S.

Note: Statistically significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

October 5, 2018 33

The Public’s View of the EU’s Trade Fairness is Unchanged

% of adults who think __ has a fair trade policy with the U.S.

Source: Gallup poll conducted June 1993 and June 18-23, 2018.

1993 2018 1993-2018change

% %

EU 52 56 +4

Japan 24 55 +31

Mexico 45 44 -1

Canada 77 65 -12

China - 30 -

October 5, 2018 34

But Partisan Perceptions of Trade Fairness Have Changed Dramatically Over Time

% of adults who think __ has a fair trade policy with the U.S.

.

1993 20181993-2018

change% %

CanadaRepublicans 81 49 -32Democrats 76 82 +6EURepublicans 54 42 -12Democrats 51 70 +19MexicoRepublicans 47 29 -18Democrats 42 59 +17JapanRepublicans 21 46 +25Democrats 27 65 +38ChinaRepublicans 21 -Democrats - 38 -

49%

55

47

47

48

23

56

71

25%

22

28

30

17

45

16

10

Total

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

HelpHurt

October 5, 2018 35

By Two-to-One Republicans Say Tariffs Help the Economy,By Seven-to-One Democrats Say Duties Hurt the Economy

Will raising tariffs help or hurt the U.S. economy?

Source: NBC survey conducted July 15-18, 2018.

EUROPEANS’ VIEWS ON TRADE

June 22, 2017 36

October 5, 2018 37

Europeans Say Trade is Good, but They Doubt it Boosts Wages or Decreases Prices


Note: European median based on countries surveyed in both 2014 and 2018: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain, UK.Source: 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

Does not make a difference



35 26

Decreases pricesIncreases prices

Increases wagesDecreaseswages

Creates jobs

Destroys jobs

Is good

Is bad

26 27

35 40

2014 2018

79%85

14%10

2014 2018

28 27

33 32

2014 2018

44 40

2834

2014 2018

October 5, 2018 38

Italians Are the Most Wary of Trade Among Europeans


Trade is good

Trade creates jobs

Trade increases wages

Tradelowers prices

% % % %Netherlands 93 61 35 32

Spain 93 58 33 24

Sweden 93 56 36 53

Germany 89 38 27 32

UK 89 49 34 27

Hungary 85 49 38 28

Poland 85 61 52 21

France 83 32 13 35

Greece 82 41 20 28

Italy 64 16 12 25

October 5, 2018 39

Poles, French Now More Likely than in 2014 to Believe that Trade Creates Jobs Trade with other countries leads to job creation

Note: Only statistically significant changes shown.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

2014 2018 Change% %

U.S. 20 36 +16Poland 51 61 +10France 24 32 +8India 49 56 +7Japan 15 21 +6Mexico 43 35 -8Kenya 75 66 -9Indonesia 63 52 -11Brazil 56 40 -16Tunisia 87 67 -20Argentina 45 19 -26

October 5, 2018 40

All Pew Research Center reports are available online at www.pewresearch.orgBruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes@bruceestokes

How The World and the EU Sees the U.S., Donald Trump and Trade · During Trump’s Second Year...

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