How Real Estate Investors Can Leverage the Latest Housing Market Trends
-
date post
18-Oct-2014 -
Category
Real Estate
-
view
1.831 -
download
0
description
Transcript of How Real Estate Investors Can Leverage the Latest Housing Market Trends
LEVERAGING THE LATEST HOUSING MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
WELCOME
WHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY
• A brief bit on RealtyTrac• Latest foreclosure trends (midyear report)• Latest home sales & price trends• Flipping and institutional investors• The problem and opportunity of zombie
foreclosures• Tips on leveraging all these trends to help build
your business
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER
Economic
Neighborhood & Local
MLS
Sales & Loan
Valuation& Prop Details
Foreclosure
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER
County-Level Public Documents• Pre-foreclosure, foreclosure auction and REO• Sales & Loan• Valuation and property characteristics
MLS• Listing status, price and other info• Property description and more characteristics
Publicly available datasets• Neighborhood features, amenities, red flags• Macro housing and economic metrics
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
June foreclosure starts at lowest level
since December 2005
LATEST FORECLOSURE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
June foreclosure starts at lowest level
since July 2006
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
June foreclosure activity down
annually for 19th consecutive month
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
State MSA City Zip Code % of HU NTS REO Total %∆ from May-13
%∆ from Jun-12
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Glendale 85308 0.17 31 14 45 32.35 -56.31
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Laveen 85339 0.36 24 18 42 2.44 -58.42
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Buckeye 85326 0.26 22 19 41 -25.45 -72.11
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Goodyear 85338 0.26 19 19 38 -26.92 -62.00
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85041 0.22 19 18 37 -13.95 -63.73
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Avondale 85323 0.28 17 18 35 -12.50 -56.25
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ El Mirage 85335 0.35 21 13 34 30.77 -55.84
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85051 0.20 21 13 34 3.03 -27.66
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Peoria 85345 0.15 25 9 34 -32.00 -65.66
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Surprise 85379 0.25 20 13 33 -13.16 -60.71
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Sun City 85351 0.15 12 21 33 -21.43 -23.26
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85032 0.10 18 14 32 -11.11 -65.59
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85042 0.20 22 8 30 -11.76 -63.86
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Mesa 85204 0.13 16 13 29 -35.56 -59.15
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85037 0.19 15 13 28 -17.65 -64.56
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Chandler 85224 0.15 19 9 28 3.70 -51.72
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Gilbert 85296 0.20 14 12 26 4.00 -59.38
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Mesa 85201 0.12 16 10 26 -21.21 -63.38
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Tolleson 85353 0.27 18 7 25 4.17 -72.53
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85009 0.17 14 11 25 56.25 -46.81
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Mesa 85208 0.14 15 10 25 0.00 -66.67
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85086 0.15 15 9 24 -17.24 -66.67
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Glendale 85301 0.10 14 10 24 4.35 -67.57
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Surprise 85374 0.10 13 11 24 -25.00 -72.41
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Chandler 85225 0.09 14 10 24 -51.02 -78.38
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Glendale 85304 0.23 13 10 23 91.67 -58.93
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85033 0.14 13 10 23 -30.30 -72.29
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Phoenix 85043 0.22 12 10 22 -4.35 -66.67
Arizona Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Peoria 85383 0.17 15 7 22 -12.00 -61.40
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Arizona time to foreclose less than half the
national average of 526 days
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
• Arizona and Phoenix leading the way out of foreclosure crisis– State foreclosure rate ranked No. 10 in June– Metro foreclosure rate ranked No. 57 out of 209
metro areas nationwide– Shorter foreclosure process with no legislative
intervention means no backlog built up threatening another wave of delayed foreclosures
– Rapidly rising home prices will help lift underwater homeowners to positive equity more quickly than other markets
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LEVERAGING LATEST MARKET TRENDS TIP NO. 1
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Recent default, auction and REO trends
Local, state and national
foreclosure rates
1. Know your distressed market
WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING
YoY Pct Increases:• Maryland: 365%• Connecticut: 47%• New York: 36%
• New Jersey: 27%• Oregon: 59,200%
WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
YoY Pct Increases:• Florida: 100%• Arkansas: 71%• Illinois: 65%
• Wisconsin: 45%• Washington: 21%
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Judicial foreclosure
auctions up 34 percent from
year ago in June
WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING
• Why are foreclosure starts and auctions rebounding?– Pent-up foreclosure activity from robo-signing, national
mortgage settlement and state legislation/court rulings– Rising prices may be helping to motivate foreclosure
• What are implications for real estate investors?– Clock is now ticking on delinquent homeowners– Auctions may be good place to buy in next 6 to 12
months
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 2
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Find pre-foreclosures and scheduled auctions in your
neighborhood
LEVERAGING LATEST MAREKT TRENDS TIP NO. 3
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Create mailing lists of distressed homeowners in
default or scheduled for foreclosure auction
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Distressed median prices still flat lining
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Phoenix home prices up 23 percent from year ago but still 33 percent below peak
in July 2006
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Average Annual Pct Change YTD in 2013 is 7 percent for non-
distressed properties
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Distressed median prices actually rising
at a slightly faster pace than non-
distressed prices
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
City Median Sales May 2012 Median Sales May 2013 % Change (Median)Paradise Valley $837,000 $1,160,000 38.59 %Carefree $469,000 $535,000 14.07 %Scottsdale $329,540 $377,445 14.54 %Rio Verde $260,000 $360,000 38.46 %Cave Creek $154,950 $340,000 119.43 %Fountain Hills $243,000 $310,000 27.57 %New River $223,700 $265,000 18.46 %Gilbert $188,911 $228,400 20.90 %Chandler $189,817 $227,617 19.91 %Litchfield Park $167,000 $209,700 25.57 %
City Median Sales May 2012 Median Sales May 2013 % Change (Median)Arizona City $64,250 $29,476 -54.12 %San Manuel $29,699 $33,150 11.62 %Casa Grande $109,742 $44,610 -59.35 %Tonopah $46,000 $85,993 86.94 %Coolidge $60,750 $89,125 46.71 %Youngtown $59,000 $90,000 52.54 %Florence $86,700 $102,877 18.66 %El Mirage $82,000 $112,000 36.59 %Sun City $94,475 $113,275 19.90 %Morristown $51,000 $122,500 140.20 %
10 highest-priced cities in Phoenix
MSA
10 lowest-priced cities in Phoenix
MSA
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS: NATIONWIDE
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Seriously underwater means mortgage amount is at least 25 percent
higher than estimated market
value
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS: ARIZONA
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS: NATIONAL
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
1.5 million fewer underwater in last year
LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS: ARIZONA
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
242,000 fewer Arizona homes underwater.
Underwater percentage dropped
from 46% to 32%
HOME PRICES BUOYING UNDERWATER INVENTORY
4.5 million homes nationwide would transition from short sales to
equity sales with 10 percent increase in home prices; 8.3 million
with a 20 percent rise
LEVERAGING LATEST MARKET TRENDS TIP NO. 4
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Foreclosure Inventory and
Prices
Historical Foreclosure Discounts
3. Know your overall market
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
U.S. property flips increased 17 percent from a year ago in the
second quarter
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Arizona flips down 35 percent YoY. Gross profit $21K per flip
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Phoenix flips down 36 percent YoY. Gross profit $26K per flip
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Zip Code 2013 Property Flips Avg Purchase PriceAvg Flipped Price Gross Profit Gross Profit Percent85032 104 155,499$ 195,168$ 39,669$ 26%85143 101 180,396$ 176,518$ (3,878)$ -2%85243 96 911,687$ 157,030$ (754,657)$ -83%85308 89 172,213$ 206,130$ 33,916$ 20%85326 87 278,588$ 134,435$ (144,152)$ -52%85379 87 169,323$ 184,097$ 14,775$ 9%85339 84 162,528$ 178,037$ 15,510$ 10%85041 80 304,436$ 126,807$ (177,629)$ -58%85086 78 249,657$ 273,634$ 23,977$ 10%85037 76 384,604$ 110,903$ (273,701)$ -71%85225 76 160,040$ 186,085$ 26,045$ 16%85204 72 112,263$ 154,575$ 42,312$ 38%85238 72 259,134$ 168,828$ (90,306)$ -35%85345 72 176,692$ 136,321$ (40,371)$ -23%85242 70 756,617$ 253,807$ (502,810)$ -66%85388 70 285,002$ 181,831$ (103,171)$ -36%85338 69 168,376$ 180,271$ 11,895$ 7%85240 67 572,232$ 134,342$ (437,891)$ -77%85029 66 101,666$ 149,787$ 48,121$ 47%85254 65 319,689$ 400,087$ 80,398$ 25%85374 65 137,086$ 152,057$ 14,971$ 11%85033 64 518,210$ 84,841$ (433,369)$ -84%85296 63 261,069$ 271,054$ 9,985$ 4%85140 62 195,616$ 163,445$ (32,171)$ -16%85323 62 234,859$ 167,037$ (67,822)$ -29%
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
U.S. institutional investor purchases
increased 16 percent from year ago in Q2
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Phoenix only metro among top 10 with
decrease in purchases in 2013
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Zip Institutional Investor Purchases AvgSalePrice Avg Discount Below Market Value85143 96 185,250$ 19,975$ 85243 82 123,008$ 18,271$ 85037 78 309,974$ 10,899$ 85041 71 171,086$ 13,325$ 85308 71 187,826$ 17,402$ 85339 70 201,171$ 8,584$ 85345 66 228,072$ 15,650$ 85033 65 460,387$ 10,414$ 85338 63 163,730$ 17,807$ 85323 62 138,820$ 15,549$ 85225 61 157,507$ 17,458$ 85379 60 161,150$ 18,804$ 85326 53 107,505$ 17,342$ 85353 49 151,672$ 16,487$ 85029 48 270,941$ 17,893$ 85138 48 121,825$ 14,525$ 85335 47 131,608$ 8,637$ 85238 46 116,017$ 12,410$ 85234 45 201,086$ 20,474$ 85295 44 200,435$ 19,471$ 85240 43 137,123$ 18,599$ 85296 43 198,093$ 15,332$ 85051 42 319,936$ 17,684$ 85392 40 155,986$ 12,371$
THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
THE PROBLEM AND OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
• The problem– More than 167,000 vacant homes nationwide, 20
percent of all homes in the foreclosure process– Homeowners often don’t realize they still own the
property and are responsible for taxes etc.
• The opportunity– Homeowners who have exhibited a desire to let go of
the property– Lenders who don’t want to foreclose
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 5
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Identify homeowners who have vacated their homes and get
new mailing addresses
RESOURCES FOR LEVERAGING THE LATEST MARKET TRENDS
• Real Estate News & Reports (free)• http://www.realtytrac.com/content
• Local Stats & Trends (embeddable)• http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/
• Premier subscription (address-level access)• http://www.realtytrac.com/profile/promotionselect.aspx
• Download data/create lists: http://mega.realtytrac.com
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC