How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ...
Transcript of How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ...
Test 15 ideas with a convenience sample of 500 answering for how they believe the market would react
Share the game with them, “imagine you owned shares in all these ideas..., which one would you sell + diagnostics & why and which one would you double your shares in and why?”
Aggregated buy/sell scores accurately sorts ‘wheat from chaff’, purchase projection indicates the ‘grade of wheat’ & the rich quali-quant diagnostics provide creative direction
Works across cultures with universal net preference scores
“BrainJuicer’s Predictive Markets is an innovative research technique, which enables us to test multiple ideas really
quickly, accurately and insightfully.”
Lauren Lackey – Director of Global Technology – Wrigley
How Predictive Markets work?
Let the Market select
Monadic Test of 10 ideas
Less differentiation
Over-rewards the mediocre
Scores vary by culture
More expensive samples
Costly to test many ideas
5-6 week turn process
Predictive Markets
Sorts ‘wheat from the chaff’
Can also grade the ‘wheat’
More comparable cross-culture
Cheaper convenience sample
VFM way to test many ideas
2 week process
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Click for Contents
% Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea – Male
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R
% o
f res
pond
ents
% doubling% selling
Sample: 500
-10-5-5-4-2-1-1-100001112519Net Preference:
Einstein represents ideas generated by the Creative Sixers
Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea
Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveal which concepts have real potential
?? ? ? ? ?
CommScan
Using Faces to tell the engagement story
FaceTrace™
Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this advert?
To what degree did this advert make you feel [selected emotion]?
And what was it about this ad that made you feel this
way?
[Use MindReader to capture reasons for each emotion]
FaceTrace™
7 3 5 7 3 1
7072
2515
61 2
19 19
25
63
61
27 25 22
1 1
2
1
10
5959
48
4
1
120 7
614
39
2 4 310
1 38
21 1
36
3
3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Guinness Country Life Domestos Archers Charity Ad 1 Charity Ad 2 Action Aid NSPCC
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise
Measuring Emotional Engagement
% Feeling Each Emotion - Having seen the ad, please select the emotion below which most closely matches how you feel about it.
Intensity Score measured on a scale from 0 to +3
Emotional Engagement
Emotions drive everything we do. The more neutral, the less it can provoke any actionHow the emotion is evoked matters hugely: reflective or autonomic [MindReaders]
The more emotion the better but generally splits by purpose: commercial or social
1.371.18 0.711.310.771.581.911.92
And the MindReader™ asks the reasons for the emotion
☺
Reason for face - Disgust 'Domestos'
(181 x All)%The disgusting sludgy germ,
unpleasant15
The ad is repulsive and makes you not even want to watch to see who
it is for14
looked disgusting, dirty, smelly. slimy10
The ad is repulsive and makes you not want to watch to see who it is
for!8
icky, utterly revolting, but very very clever6
The ominous voice and the disgusting yucky bug5
Germs are disgusting anyway, but these along with the voice grossed
me out!4
looked slimy and evil and made me want to clean my loo4
didn't know what it was meant to represent initially & generally
disgusting3
Reason for face - Fear 'Domestos'
(18 x All)%Is the toilet bleach and disinfectant
I am using enough to kill these germs?
33
horrible ad...almost frightening and wouldn't want my kids to see it33
dark and gruesome character22
Reason for face - Happy 'Domestos'
(124 x All)%It made me laugh and want to keep
watching to see what it was for12
it portrays domestos as a strong bleach which will kill all germs
makes me happy11
It was funny and a bit menacing -good animation10
just fun7
It made me laugh7
it was very funny and a bit disgusting!7
it was different and i like animations compared to supposedly real people
6
the kind of ad you would call people into the room to see very
funny!6
It was funny! Also a bit suggestive!4
Reason for face - Surprise 'Domestos'
(27 x All)%I was surprised to see something creepy. I like the ads though was
like a film22
the shape of the 'germ'!15
it made me cringe15
so kind of horrid, for an ad, but amusing too15
it was quite entertaining for a bleach ad11
the 'millions of germs will die' statement7
I was surprised to see something creepy and nasty looking. I like the
ads though7
Test 4 communication ideas with a targeted sample of 150;1 competitor + 3 alternatives, or 3 elements, TV/print/web
FaceTrace™, KPI’s, Main Message, Cognitive Dissonance, “how does it make you feel..., to what degree..., and why? Ad ratings, key message & more or less interested?
Emotional engagement +KPIs accurately measures emotions and predicts potential for achieving the desired action.
Works across cultures with universal FaceTrace™ scores
Costs *£12,000 and takes 2 weeks
“BrainJuicer’s CommScan provided an excellent measure of emotional engagement with rich diagnostics on all the
options and produced an insightful, action- focused debrief with clear direction for next steps.
Sheela Smale – CMI Director – Unilever Foods
CommScan
*Sliding scale with each additional country down to
£7,500 per study
Understanding Brands
A psychometric understanding of how consumers see the brand’s personality
Brand Personality Type Indicator
Katherine Cook-BriggsIsobel Briggs-Myers
57Myers Briggs – MBTi
Myers Briggs Type Indicator®” = World’s Foremost Personality Profiling tool Based on Jungian typologies and developed by Katherine Cook-Briggs & her daughter Isobel Briggs-Myers, MBTi is the world’s foremost personality profiling tool. Regarded as extremely reliable, with 75% reporting the same results & up to 95% of those with clear types.
What it can tell you…
UNDERSTANDING WHAT’S IMPORTANT & DRIVES THE BRANDSelf-knowledge of the brand & how to realize its full potential
RECOGNIZING THE BRAND’S STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSESEach personality has strengths & weaknesses to acknowledge, accept & use wisely.
What can you use it for…
BRAND PERSONALITY & DNARobust, deep, insightful knowledge of how consumers see the channel’s personality
COMMUNICATIONS AUDIT Assessment of how well the brand’s communications fit with the brand personality
BRAND PARTNERSHIPSProfiling of possible partner brands to predict how good a fit it would be & to help attract advertisers
Katherine Cook-Briggs
Carl Jung
Isobel Briggs-Myers
58Myers Briggs Personality TypesSJ “GUARDIANS” = Security seeking types;ESTJ – SupervisorsISTJ – InspectorsESFJ – ProvidersISFJ – Protectors
SP “ARTISANS” = Sensation seeking types;ESTP – Promoter ISTP – CrafterESFP – PerformerISFP – Composer
NT “RATIONALS” = Knowledge seeking types;ENTJ – Field marshalINTJ – MastermindENTP – InventorINTP – Architect
NF “IDEALISTS” = Identity seeking types;ENFJ – TeacherINFJ – CounsellorENFP – ChampionINFP – Healer
59Myers Briggs Personality Types: Mobile Network Operators
ENTP
Inventor / Visionary
ENFP
Champion / Inspirer
ENFP
Champion / Inspirer
ENFP
Champion / Inspirer
ENFP
Champion / Inspirer
ENFP
Champion/Inspirer
ESTJ
Supervisor/Guardian
60Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary
Strengths:AdaptiveAnalyticalChallengingCleverEnterprisingIndependentOriginalOutspokenQuestioningResourcefulStrategic Theoretical
Steve Jobs
James Dyson
Weaknesses:Sets unrealistic priorities & timescalesAvoids here & now facts, dataUnappreciative of othersNeglects routineResists procedures/processesOver critical of inefficiency & incompetenceObsessivenessManipulative
Connecting with Consumers
Providing live, 24/7 access to consumers’ livesJuicyCommunities
FamilyCam™
Real life…, real homesNot people performing for the cameras…
FamilyCam™
Viewable 24/7 from your desktop
All film viewable, taggable & usable by all teams + agencies
New product testing interventions£12,000 per project
Other research tools/ suppliers
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www.themindanvas.comwww.themindanvas.com
Specialists inSpecialists in‘‘GameGame--like Elicitation Methodslike Elicitation Methods’’
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Feature prioritisation: DivideFeature prioritisation: Divide--thethe--dollardollar
The respondent allocates $$ to various features (here the
example is imagining an ideal mobile phone)
A great tool forconjoint research
6767September 2007
DivideDivide--thethe--dollar results: dollar results: WeightMapWeightMap
6868September 2007
OpenOpen--ended research: ended research: FreeListingFreeListing
6969September 2007
OpenOpen--ended research results: ended research results: ListMapListMap(note the use of a (note the use of a ‘‘tag cloudtag cloud’’ display)display)
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