How Material Science Helps Operators with End of Warranty Inspections

How Prognostics Provides Accurate “Fleet Risk Assessment”Matt Hostetler, Industrial Internet Solutions Manager

Host

Natalie HilsMarketing Revenue [email protected]

+1 716.807.8655

8/17/16Fleet Risk Assessment | Property of Sentient Science Corporation

mailto:[email protected]

Webinar Series

8/17/16

Fleet Risk Assessment | Property of Sentient Science Corporation

Webinar Instructions

8/17/16


Introductions

Matt HostetlerIndustrial Internet Solutions Manager

[email protected]+1 716.445.4125



Uniquely built with operators – Trusted 3rd Party

Funded $25M from the World’s Largest Operator


How We Apply Material Science


Turbine Selection Optimization - $0.50/MWhLower Premiums - $0.50/MWh

Fleet Risk Assessment - $0.70-$2/MWh

Computational Root Cause Analysis - $1/MWh

Cumulative COE Savings for Your Fleet

Sentient Value Growth

Pre-COD Operation Extended Pro-Forma

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Lifetime of Asset (years)

Warranty

Life Extension - $1/MWh

Main Bearing - $0.20/MWhGearbox Replacement - $0.45/MWh

Uptower Repairs- $0.85/MWh


Sites under OEM Service/Warranty have information disadvantage


→ OEM’s have the most turbine information…→ Learning that information through O&M experience increases

cost of energy and reduces asset life

→ Where do Operator’s gain the information advantage?

OEMISP Self

Perform

Operator O&M Strategy

8/17/16

Risk

Cost

Sites that choose OEM services pay ~20-30% Premium• Market asking for data sources to help make this decision• Largely based on perceived risk• 3rd Party service providers eager to partner

$9.80 OEM- $9.10 ISP=$ .70 VALUE

$7.50/MWh

$9.80/MWh

$9.10/MWh


$/MWh per year on avg. over 20yr period for 1.5MW turbine spend on Planned and Unplanned Maintenance

Using DigitalClone® for Asset Management Decision Support

Fleet Risk Analysis

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1. Expert End of Warranty Inspection• Sentient+ service partner to gather all data needed during end of warranty

inspections:o BOMo Component Healtho Site Operational history

• Lubricants, repairs, rebuild information, etc.• Analyze error code trends• Work with operators to Estimate Repair costs

2. Computational RCA+• RCA analysis through DigitalClone®• Network shares recommendations• Improved components available to network• ROI available through software

3. Material Science-based Prediction• Fleet risk report

o Expected major correctives over the next 5 yearso Risk by turbine type, gearbox manufacturer, component failure rates

• ROI of Sentient suggested life extension solutions• Revised Pro-Forma based on expected repair costs and Sentient+ suggested parts• Benchmark report of site vs. similar sites

Standard 1.5MW Wind Turbine~2% Failure Rate

Industry assumes failure rates by Turbine TypeAre all Gearboxes Created Equal?


All Gearboxes are NOT Created Equal

20%4% Failure

30%2% Failure

50%1% Failure

Sentient looks at Failure Rates by Gearbox Manufacturer

*Sites have gearboxes from different manufacturers


Supplier CSupplier BSupplier A

…and individual component configurations

All Gearboxes are NOT Created Equal


Component Supplier Life

HSS_BRG1

Supplier C > 20 yrs

Supplier B > 20 yrs

Supplier D > 20 yrs

HSS_BRG2

Supplier C > 20 yrs

Supplier B > 20 yrs

Supplier D > 20 yrs

Supplier D > 20 yrs

PS_BRG2Supplier A 10.1 yrs

Supplier B 19.2 yrs

Component Supplier Life

LSIS_BRG1Supplier A > 20 yrs

Supplier B > 20 yrs

LSIS_BRG2Supplier A > 20 yrs

Supplier B > 20 yrs

HSIS_BRG1

Supplier C > 20 yrs

Supplier B > 20 yrs

Supplier D > 20 yrs

HSIS_BRG2

Supplier C 10.3 yrs

Supplier B 13.8 yrs

Supplier D 7.6 yrs

Fleet Health Assessment

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DigitalClone® provides Operators insight into Fleet Health


• Site Statistics - for ROI Optimization and Tracking

• Most Critical WTG’s

• Critical Site List - Most Critical WTG’s and Components

• 5 year forecast of gearbox and bearing failures

Fleet Risk Report

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• Recommended Service - Reduce risk by choosing service providers with DigitalClone® experience

FSA Extension vs. Third Party Service Providers


FSA

Unplanned Maintenance

Planned Maintenance

Insurance (Property & Plant)

Balance of Plant (BOP)

Material Science reduces Operators risk choosing lower cost service solutions

20-30% O&M Savings over 5 years

Pric

e/ye

ar

6 7 8 9 10

OEM FSA

6 7 8 9 10

ISP

Not just prediction… tying ROI to the life extension solution

Sentient’s Unique Value


1. Predict Wind Turbine Failure -> Prognostics• Which system will fail?• Which components in the system are at risk?• When they will fail?

2. Life Extension Prescription/Recommendations• What changes can we make to operation/configuration to extend life?• Trade-off decision support for component replacement options• Supply chain planning for forward purchases• Operation and environment specific upgrade/replacement solutions

Sentient has full usage rights for over 30 Gearbox and MB models

Sentient’s Unique Value


1. Sentient can provide system level gearbox and main bearing RCA analysis• Sentient is capable of providing gearbox and drivetrain analysis on most

wind turbines• Sentient can further provide supplier lifing analysis and upgrade options

to support third party O&M efforts

2. Today, Sentient is a partner with other OEMs and Service Providers providing third party services and upgrades across the Americas and in Europe

3. Sentient can support Operator’s efforts to provide life extension upgrades on wind turbines

Aggregating data from multiple partners expands value creation for operators

Valuable Knowledge Base


Suppliers

Asse

t Ope

rato

rs

Repair ShopsThird Party

Service Providers

Site Operations

SourcingEnable Buy on Life® decision-

support

OPSEvaluate system &

component replacement &

upgrade benefit

AssetManagementExtend asset life

Forecast accurate budget

DigitalClone®

Trusted 3rd Party

Business Management

Uncover alternate business strategies

Site Technicians

Site

Financial ProForma

Global Fleet

Input

Input

SCADA Output

Asset Management Solution

DigitalClone®


1. Sentient Science – Material Science-based Failure PredictionOver 18,000 wind turbines with “DigitalClone®”

• Quantify - major component risk• Compare - life vs. price (know ROI)• Ensure - your site achieves lowest possible LCOE

2. Software assets – Connect Operations to ValueBenchmark for sharing Global best practices

• Global Fleet - value for small and large operators• Visibility - from Operator to Boardroom• Knowledge - immediate benefit with no hardware

3. Enterprise Value – Wind Operator SpecificImpact across organization

• Operators - confidence in planning and decision making• Asset Managers - optimize O&M spend• Financial Models - reduced capital risk reserve

Questions?

Matt HostetlerIndustrial Internet Solutions Manager

[email protected]+1 716.445.4125


Natalie HilsMarketing Revenue [email protected]

+1 716.807.8655



Thank You!


Upcoming Webinars

1. Chinese International Bearing Industry ExhibitionSeptember 20 – 23, 2016 – Shanghai, China

2. Wind Energy Hamburg September 27-30, 2016 – Hamburg, Germany

3. China WINDPOWER October 19 – 21, 2016 – Beijing, China

Meet the Team

1. Advanced Prognostics to Detect Early Failure & Extend Asset LifeAugust 24th 8AM & 2PM EDT

2. Assessing the Impact of Lubrication Solutions to Extend Asset Life – Featuring REWITEC Case StudySeptember 7th 8AM & 2PM EDT

How Material Science Helps Operators with End of Warranty Inspections

Engineering

Transcript of How Material Science Helps Operators with End of Warranty Inspections