How JATOP tackled the issues of Japanese air quality, CO...

November 13th , 2017Brazilian Auto Oil Seminar

São Paulo, Brazil

Ko TakahashiChief Senior Researcher

Auto Oil and New Fuels Dept. Japan Petroleum Energy Center

(JPEC)

How JATOP tackled the issues of Japanese air quality, CO2, and fuel diversification.

ContentsI. Outline of JPEC

II. Auto-oil studies at JPEC

III. Reviews of JCAP Achievement

IV. JATOP Activitiesi. Background

ii. Auto-Fuel research

iii. Air-quality research

V. Summary

2

I. Outline of JPEC

3

Outline of JPEC (Japan Petroleum Energy Center)

JPEC is a non-profit organization for development of technology and research related to petroleum industry, especially downstream, and aims at enhancing the competitiveness of petroleum industry.

Main Activities of JPEC

(1) Development of technologies for production and utilization of Petroleum

(2) Collection, analysis and delivery of useful information on petroleum & other energy sources

15 Petroleum 3 Information Technology

3 Transport Equipment 3 Industrial Gas

2 Catalyst 2 Iron and Steel

4 Engineering 1 Non-ferrous Metal

6 Machinery 1 Insurance

3Electrical and Electronic Equipment

3 Banking

Members

Number of staffs

46 major Japanese corporations & organizations

117 (as of May 2017)

Location

Head office Tokyo

Overseas offices

Brussels

Chicago

Beijing

Advanced Technology & Research Institute (ATRI)

Chiba Pref.(60km east from Tokyo)

Establishment May 22, 1986

4

Processing Technology

・Development of Petroleomics Technology

Ⅰ Development of Production Technology Hydrogen Energy

・High-efficiency Hydrogen Production in Oil Refinery・R&D Necessary for the Development of Hydrogen Station

Ⅱ Development of Fuel Utilization Technologies

Automotive Fuel Research ProgramsJATOPⅢ（Japan Auto-Oil ProgramⅢ）

・Research on the Use of Cracked Fraction for Vehicle Fuels・Air Quality Study（Air Quality Simulation Program）

・Research and Development at JPEC Advanced Technology and Research Institute（ATRI）

Ⅲ Collection and Delivery of Information

Collection and Delivery of Information,Studies and Analysis

http://www.pecj.or.jp/japanese/index_j.html

WEB Information

Main activities in JPEC

・Contract Testing Services at ATRI

“Supply Side” “Demand Side”

Urban Air QualitySimulation Model of

PM2.5･Investigation of Big Data Analytics for Stable Refinery Operation

Enhancing Operation Liability on Refinery

International TechnologicalInformation Exchange

5

http://www.pecj.or.jp/japanese/index_j.html

II. Auto-oil studies at JPEC

6

Auto-oil studies at JPEC

JCAP：Japan Clean Air Program JATOP：Japan AuTo Oil Program

JCAPⅠ JCAPⅡ JATOPⅠ JATOPⅡ JATOPⅢ

Duration '97.4～'02.3(5years)

'02.4～'07.3 (5years)

'07.4～'12.3 (5years)

'12.4～ '15.3 (3years)

'15.4～ '18.3 (3years)

Aim Improving air quality Improving air quality, Global warming prevention, Energy security

MainResearches

(1)Auto-Fuel research (2) Air Quality research

Collaborative researches between auto and oil industries have been conducted since 1997, to resolve the technical issues that may contribute to resolving environmental and energy security issues in the future, and collaboration may be an effective solution

Auto industry(Fuel consumer)

Oil industry(Fuel producer)Subsidized by the Ministry of

Economy, Trade and Industry

Collaborativeresearch

7

Major Research 1: Auto-Fuel

Engine bench system Chassis dynamometer system SHED

Advanced Technology and Research Institute(ATRI)

Main Facilities

8

Improvement on EI Improvement on AQ Model

Source Sensitivity Study Future Air Quality Estimation Air Quality Analysis

Development Emission Inventory Application of CMAQComparison betweenCalculation and Observation

CMAQSMOKE

Utilization

Consolidate

Conferencepresentation

Contributionto Government

Release Emission Inventory

JCAP/JATOP AQ Study Frame work

AQ Observation

AQ Observation

Major research 2: Air Quality

Improvement

Evaluation

9

III. Reviews of JCAP Achievement

10

(Japan Clean Air Program 1997~2007)

• Improvement in both emissions and fuel economy (CO2 reduction) by reducing sulfur in gasoline and diesel (50⇒10ppm) were confirmed.⇒ This result was reported to the Petroleum Products Quality Subcommittee in the

Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, and reflected in its report stating “it is appropriate to reduce sulfur content to 10ppm or below for diesel fuel from 2007, and for gasoline from 2008.”

⇒ Sulfur-free gasoline and diesel fuel became available since January 2005 due to petroleum industry’s voluntary efforts.

GasolineRegulations

Market

Diesel fuelRegulations

Market

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50ppmS 10ppmS

500ppmS

50ppmS100ppmS 10ppmS

500ppmS 10ppmS

10ppmS50ppmS

50ppmS

Reviews of JCAP Achievements to Government Policies(Auto-Fuel)

• For the use of biomass fuels, use of 8% ETBE blended fuel causing no problem in either emissions or practical performance was confirmed. ⇒ Reported to the WG on ETBE Utilization of Fuel Policy Subcommittee in the

Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy

⇒ 8%ETBE blended fuel was introduced at trial from April 2007.⇒to achieve “Kyoto Protocol Plan”, Petroleum industry developed an

introduction plan for a certain amount of bio-ETBE (approx. 820,000 KL/y by2010). The research results were utilized as a base data in the planning.

11

Reviews of JCAP Achievements to Government Policies(Air quality)

⇒Reported to the hearing by the Automobile Exhaust Emission Technical Committee in the Central Environmental Council of the Ministry of Environment

・High accurate air quality simulation model was developed.・Utilizing this model, quantitative estimation of improvementeffects of air quality by enforcement of ’09 diesel Regs. was made.

East Asia to Regional areaRegional area to Urban area

Urban area to Roadside

Information sharing among simulation models

JCAPⅠ JCAPⅡ1997 2002 2007

・Estimation of motor vehicle emission inventory

・Building of Urban air quality simulation model

・Building of Roadside air quality simulation model

・Real World Emission・High accuracy estimation ( multiscale model)・Roadside air quality・Fine particles (especially for nanoparticles)

Air quality prediction - 2010 Air quality prediction - 2015

Report of Expert committee for motor vehicle exhaust emission of the Central environment council 12

IV. JATOP Activities ⅰ Background

13

Trends in regulations/ targets for motor vehicles/fuels（2005～2009）

Air Quality/ Emissions related Trend

Fuel Diversification related Trend

Reduced CO2 Emissions (Increased Fuel

Economy) related TrendNew fuel economy standard

★

10 ppm sulfur gasoline/ diesel fuel (Industry’s voluntary efforts)

Introduction of 840,000kL of ETBE(210,000kL of biofuels (equivalent

in oil) into Japan market

Setting of Environmental standard for PM2.5 (Report)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Measures against local NO2pollution and new Environmental standard for PM2.5 should be developedRash of photochemical smog

JATOPⅠJCAP

Tightened emissionsregulations for HD diesel vehicles

Introduction of biofuelsinto Japan market

Tightened fuel economy standards

☆

Government Strategy/policy

★New National Energy Strategy

Oil dependence in the transport sector to beabout 80%

30% improvement in energy consumption efficiency

Background and necessity of JATOP

●Implemented ★Plan ☆Target

Next Generation Automobile/Fuel Initiative

fuel economy standard for PC

fuel economy standard for HD

25% reduction in GHG (from 1990 levels)

10 ppmS G/D regulations

2005 regulations

Next emissions regulations(Challenging target for

NOx of HD vehicles)

2009 regulations

14

Background and necessity of JATOP

Fuel diversificationReducing CO2emissions (Improving vehicle fuel economy

Reducing vehicle emissions

Issue 1 Issue 2

Issue 3

The 3 issues on vehicle and fuel technologies are related to each other, therefore, even in the case of resolving one of the issues, the examination should be conducted taking the three issues into consideration from a comprehensive standpoints.

JCAP：Japan Clean Air Program JATOP：Japan AuTo Oil Program

JCAPⅠ JCAPⅡ JATOPⅠ JATOPⅡ JATOPⅢ


'02.4～'07.3 (5years)

'07.4～'12.3 (5years)

'12.4～ '15.3 (3years)

'15.4～ '18.3 (3years)


Researches (1)Auto-Fuel research (2) Air Quality research

15

IV. JATOP Activities ⅱ Auto-Fuel Research

16

JATOPⅠ-Application technology of biofuels

17

Objectives & Technical issues Results

E10 Determine the technical issues related to fuel and vehicle technologies for the use of blends of 10% ethanol with gasoline

• Impact on the quality of gasoline in the domestic market

• Impact on some types of motor vehicles such as light motor vehicles that are particular to Japan

B10/B20

Determine the technical issues related to fuel and vehicle technologies for the use of blends of over 5% biodiesel with petroleum diesel.

• Develop measures to deal with degraded oxidative stability of biodiesel fuels (FAME) and so on

•Study new application forms of biodiesel fuels (Hydrogenated biodiesel, etc.)

10% blending of ethanol in gasoline affects fuel quality and vehicle performance in some cases.

Storage Stability at Room Temperature

There are lots of concerns about material compatibility, storage stability at room temperature and stability during long parking period.

⇒Base data for standardization of E10 gasoline (Quality assurance law, Japan Industrial Standard) ⇒Base data for standardization of FAME blended diesel fuel (Quality assurance law)

●Implemented ★Plan ☆Target

Trends in regulations/ targets for motor vehicles/fuels（2010～）

Air Quality/ Emissions related Trend

Fuel Diversification related Trend

Reduced CO2 Emissions (Increased Fuel

Economy) related TrendNew fuel economy standard

★

2009 regulations

10 ppm sulfur gasoline/ diesel

Introduction of 840,000kL of ETBE(210,000kL of biofuels (equivalent

in oil) into Japan market

2005 regulations

PM2.5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Next Generation Automobile/Fuel Initiative

Measures against local NO2pollution and new Environmental standard for PM2.5 should be developedRash of photochemical smog

Next emissions regulations(Challenging target for HD

vehicles)

JATOPⅠJCAP

Tightened emissionsregulations for HD diesel vehicles

(2)Use of non-fossilenergy

Tightened fuel economy standards

☆25% reduction in GHG (from 1990 levels)

Government Strategy/policy

New National Energy Strategy

Oil dependence in the transport sector to beabout 80%

30% improvement in energy consumption efficiency

Background and Necessity of JATOPⅡ＆Ⅲ

Act on Sophisticated Methods of Energy Supply Structures

Introduction of 500,000kL of biofuels (equivalent in oil) into Japan market

JATOPⅡ＆Ⅲ

fuel economy standard for PC

fuel economy standard for HD

(1)Effective Use of fossil energy Improvement of “Bottom Upgrading unit capacity rate”

1st phase 2nd phase 3rd phase

18

Cru

de

oil

Top

pe

r

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kerosene

Diesel

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kerosene

Diesel

Residual oilfraction HOC

RFCC,coker etc

Light oil

Heavy oil(residue)

Heavy oilCoke, etc.


Improvement of “Bottom Upgrading unit capacity rate”From 45% to 50%

*Bottom Upgrading unit : (a) RFCC, (b) H-OIL, (c) Thermal cracking (e.g. Delayed coking), (d) FCC, (e) RDS(residue desulfurization), (f) Solvent DeAsphalting

Bottom Upgradingunit capacity rate

Bottom Upgrading unit* capacity

Atmospheric distillation capacity＝

《2nd phase notification (2014-2016FY) 》

《3rd phase notification (2017-2021FY) 》

Improvement of “Bottom Cracking unit capacity rate”

Improvement of “Bottom Cracking unit capacity rate”From 10 to 13%

Bottom Crackingunit capacity rate

Bottom Cracking unit* capacity

Atmospheric distillation capacity＝

*Bottom Cracking unit : (a) RFCC, (b) H-OIL, (c) Thermal cracking (e.g. Delayed coking)

《1st phase notification (2010-2013FY) 》

(1) Effective Use of fossil energy

Trend of petroleum product demand(1000kL)

Oil companies have to address two requests

19

07FY 10FY 2011FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15FY 16FY 17FY

unit: kkl2011FY 2012FY 2013FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016FY 2017FY

210 210 260 320 380 440 500350 350 430 530 630 720 820

820 820 1,010 1,250 1,490 1,700 1,940

FY： Apr to Mar

1,940kkl

820kkl 820kkl1,000kkl

1,250kkl1,490kkl

820kkl

1,700kkl

as Crudeas ethanol

as ETBE

MandatoryVoluntary

2) Sustainability Standard

• 50% ≦ of GHG reduction(Import EtOH from Brazil!)

• Food Security,• Bio-diversification


- Blending bio ethanol (or bio ETBE) to gasoline

- Ethanol is required to meet sustainability standards

(2) Use of non-fossil energyIntroduction of 500,000kL of biofuels (equivalent in crude oil) into Japan market in FY 2017

1)Target volume

Target amounts allocated to each oil company according to the amount of domestic gasoline supply

Oil companies have to address two requests

20

Research under JATOP Ⅱ&Ⅲ

Cru

de

oil

Top

per

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kerosene

Diesel

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kerosene

DieselResidual oilfraction Catalytic

Cracker

Light oil

Heavy oil(residue)

Heavy oilCoke, etc.

Cracked Gasoline

Cracked Diesel

JATOPⅡ JATOPⅢ

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Research on vehicle/ fuel technologies

◆Study on the future fuels for diesel vehicles

◆Study on the future fuels for gasoline vehicles

Enhanced use of cracked gasoline & diesel fraction to auto fuels

【Fuel Production Side】

Ensuring performance to various vehicle technologies

【Fuel Consumption Side】

Studies are required on the use of cracked fraction as auto fuels.

21

Results from JATOPⅡ: Impact Evaluation of LCO on Diesel Vehicles

The studies revealed;

When LCO is blended with No.2 diesel fuel

and cetane number falls below 50 (aromatics

content exceeding about 30 vol%), the load on

DPF regeneration tends to increase, and a

critical problem that DPF regeneration goes

wrong may occur with test fuel of cetane

number 43 (aromatics content: about 40 vol%).

Image of differential pressure and DPF after the repetition of PM deposition and DPF regeneration

Base case

A Case with test fuel of cetane number below 50(aromatics content exceeding about 30 vol%)

Dif

fere

nti

al p

ress

ure

of

DP

F

Number of repetitions 22

Test Fuel Design (No.2 diesel fuel)

Diesel & Gasoline Vehicle Study under JATOPⅢ(2015-2017)

1. Diesel Vehicle study

Verify the effects of blending lighter distillates, one of the fuel measures for alleviating the loads to DPFs

Perform emissions testing to identify the loads to DPF, which is equipped with Urea SCR vehicles in which fuels had relatively less impact on emissions

Verify the effects of vehicle measures for alleviating the DPF loading such as DPF regeneration interval and time, etc.

Focus on the some items that sufficient knowledge could not necessarily be obtained from tests conducted during JATOPⅡ: Impact on hardware such as EGR valve sticking, clogged EGR cooler, etc.

2. Gasoline Vehicle study

Identify practical issues through studies about how the fuels containing cracked gasoline (gasoline fraction produced by FCC) affect various types of gasoline vehicle performance, etc., and gain technological knowledge that will contribute to accelerated introduction of the fuels into market on the premise that the fuels will not cause any problem to motor vehicles

Identify the impacts of increased heavy aromatic content , increased olefin content, etc., which resulted from expanded use of cracked gasoline , on exhaust emissions and deposits in engines.

The results are coming soon!23

IV. JATOP Activities ⅲ Air Quality research

24

Air quality Research under JATOP

【Background】Air quality has been improving due to a series of emissions regulations, however, issues of roadside NO2 concentrations and fine particles (PM2.5) are remained unresolved.

【Purpose】 Improve simulation accuracy of the air quality simulation models developed under JCAP, and encourage active use of the models, focusing on future issues such as “roadside NO2concentrations” and “PM2.5”, and thus, predict impacts and effectiveness of various policies and measures to be taken for motor vehicles and non-auto sources on future air quality, and based on the results from the study, offer data that may contribute to future policy making to the administration

GMS: General monitoring stationRMS: Roadside monitoring stationEQS: Environmental quality standard

Background and Needs of JATOP

25

μg/

m3

⇒ Remaining issues in JCAP air quality models

・Underestimated roadside concentrations of NO2・Improving estimate accuracy of fine particles

Results: Roadside NO2 （JATOPⅠ）

26

2005年推計値

（従来手法）

2005年推計値

（JATOP）

観測値（2005年

11月）

0.5

1.0

1.5

11月

2000年月平均濃度を

1とした時の

NO2相対濃度

Re

lati

ve c

on

cen

trat

ion

s o

f N

O2

wit

h r

esp

ect

to

mo

nth

ly a

vera

ge c

on

cen

trat

ion

s in

20

00

Ob

serv

ati

on

s(N

ov.

200

5)

Esti

mat

es

in 2

00

5

(by

the

exi

stin

g m

eth

od

)

Esti

mat

es in

200

5(J

ATO

P m

od

el)

November

Reference:Monthly average concentrations in November 2000

Changes in roadside concentrations of NO2 in Tokyo Metropolis

Secondaryconcentrations

Primaryconcentrations

Backgroundconcentrations

①②③ ①②③ ①②③ ①②③

1. In the case of the scenario of motor vehicle fleet turnover + reduction in non-auto source emissions, a substantial reduction in NOx emissions is achieved, therefore, Environmental quality standard is presumed to be virtually satisfied at roadside monitoring stations in Tokyo.

2. Further reduction in NO2 concentrations; Comprehensive measures including motor vehicles and

non-auto sources are required, Effects of reducing roadside NO2 concentrations by the

introduction of Challenging target, are about 12% (November)

Suggestions made at Hearing of Expert Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission

Estimation of year 2020

Improvement of estimate accuracy

Underestimation of the estimates by the existing method is improved by using JATOP roadside air quality simulation model.

EQS

① ② ③

②

Results: PM2.5 concentrations (JATOPⅠ &Ⅱ)

－ Observed value－ Calculated value

Kawasaki

Comparison between calculated and observed PM2.5 – daily Comparison between calculated and observed PM2.5 –annual ave.

Reproducibility of simulated PM2.5 concentration is good, however, for some components, differences are still found between observed and predicted values.

Estimation of year 2020

Improvement of estimate accuracy

Future tendency in changes of concentrations ：PM2.5 concentrations will be decreased by about 10% in 2020.

0

20

40

60

4/1 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 9/28 10/28 11/27 12/27 1/26 2/25 3/27

綾瀬（日本領域） 2010年度

2020年度ベースケース

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

μg/

m3)

－FY2010－FY2020

Calculated result: Daily average concentrations of PM(Adachi-ku Tokyo)

0

20

40

60

80

NO NO2 O3 SO2 NMVOC PM2.5

2010年度2020年度中位ケース

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

SO42- NO3- SOA POA ECCo

nce

ntr

atio

n (p

pb

) or

(μg/

m3)

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (μ

g/m

3)

Primary aerosol

The change of the yearly average concentrationsSecondary aerosol

42-

3-

32 2 2.5

ベースケースFY2010FY2020

PM2.5 :slightly reduce Nox: reduce ⇒NO3-: reduce

O3:increase ⇒SOA(secondary organic aerosol) increase

27

Report to Expert committee on motor vehicle exhaustEmission(☆） and fine particles(★), Central Environment Council

• Estimation of motor vehicle emission inventory

• Building of Urban air quality simulation model

• Building of Roadside air quality simulation model

Summary of Air quality research results from JATOP

（2004.11&12）（2013.11）（2001.9）

2012

（2008.12）

JATOPⅠ

（2014.8）

JCAPⅠ JCAPⅡ1997 2002 2007

JATOPⅡ&Ⅲ• Fine particles

(PM2.5)Update EI & the

wide area air quality model

Clarification of air quality movement

Clarification of the formation mechanism of the secondary aerosol

2017

Provision of EI

Keyword of research

Air quality prediction- 2010

• Real World Emission• High accuracy estimation

(Urban-roadside multiscale model)

• Roadside air quality• Fine particles (especially

for nanoparticles)

• roadside NO2• Fine particles

(PM2.5)Improving

estimation accuracy of concentrations /Active use of air quality simulation models



28

V. Summary

29

SummaryJCAPⅠ JCAPⅡ JATOPⅠ JATOPⅡ JATOPⅢ


'02.4～'07.3 (5years)

'07.4～'12.3 (5years)

'12.4～ '15.3 (3years)

'15.4～ '18.3 (3years)


Major Achievement

Auto-fuel

・Improvement in both emissions and fuel economy by reducing sulfur in

gasoline and diesel were confirmed.・Use of 8% ETBE blended fuel causing no problem in either emissions or practical performance was confirmed.

・ Technical issues related to fuel and vehicle technologies for the use of blends of over 5% biodiesel with petroleum diesel were confirmed.

・Technical issues related to the use of blends of 10% ethanol with gasoline were confirmed.

・The impact of cracked gasoline and diesel feedstock on vehicle performances are being evaluated(on going).

Major Achievement

Air quality

・ High accurate air quality simulation model was developed.

・Utilizing this , quantitative estimationof improvement effects of air quality

by enforcing strict Regs. was made.

・ Air quality model’s been updated and improved.・Utilizing this , quantitative estimation of air quality and estimation of future air quality(Roadside NO2, PM2.5) was made.・Developed emission inventory was provided to the government.

We’d like to emphasize the importance that oil industry continuously cooperates with automotive industry , examines the effect of fuel quality changes on the latest vehicle’s performances, gains technical knowledge of fuel quality with free from malfunction, with no increase of environmental load, and moreover, fuel quality which can draw the potential of the internal combustion engine to the maximum. 30

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ENDThank you for your kind attention!

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