INDCs - Perspective SettingCOP21 - ROAD TO PARIS

Tracking Policy Perspectives For Paris COP 21 Agreement

Parallax Error Initiative

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution’s (INDC’s) is going to be one of its kinds of policy commitment dialogue, which will have equal imperative, weight-age, and momentum both in national and international context. INDC’s or National Intensions are inclusive, very particular and have this brilliant room to show case idiosyncrasies for individual countries to design an effective policy formula to address climate change crisis. It is engaging, fluid and reassuring from governance context for countries, mainly because it gives ample scope and generous flexibility to national governments to correctly identify pragmatic bottlenecks associated with their emission intensity and mechanisms to act upon it. National Intensions are directive and can steer national governments to come out with clear, quantifiable and measurable information patterns unlike national communication.

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION(INDC)

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How Intended Nationally Determined Contribution’s (INDC’s) going to influence the future of global carbon space and India’s perspective.

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION(INDC)

1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (includ-ing as appropriate, a base year)-

Here, national governments can select ‘a’ Base Year as per their situational (economic and sustainable development) readiness. Base Year selection will clearly demonstrate the di-vide between major emitters from developed countries and emerging emitters from developing countries in a common unified carbon space. Developed countries like EU, USA, Ja-

pan, Canada, and Australia etc. may tend to go for base year referencing around 1990’s, where as developing countries like China and India etc. will keep it some where around 2005.

National governments will also have to list choices for Base Year emission from non-forest land and forestland. Majority of the National Government will go for base year Base Year emissions from non-forest land (cropland, grassland, wet-lands, settlements, other land). Emissions/removals from for-

What are INDCs?

How National Intensions are strategically seeking well placed, categorical and tangible information is very interesting. National governments have to come out with a bifurcated yet cohesive information declaration. As per the decision taken by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20 countries need to come up with two fold of information announcement.

Dismantling INDCs or National Intensions in terms of structure and influence

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estland may not be included in the Base Year, since only the net change in emissions is accounted for this sector.

However, it will be highly likely that developing countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Tanzania, Brazil, Costa Rice etc. will list emissions from forestland in their Base Year referencing because of the fact that deforestation and forest degradation will significantly influence the accountabil-ity of emission intensity in these countries.

Once again, National Intensions is definitely going to have high degree of for devel-oping countries.

India’s perspective - It will be wise if India set up its reference Base Year around 2005, as it will ensure better preparedness, readiness and accountability in terms of Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) measures and can realistically de-fined aspects related to comprehensive inventory submission. It will definitely high-light India’s leadership in climate space in terms of equity, fairness and ambition. It will enhance India’s credibility it terms of limiting emission intensity through a stra-tegically well placed timeline where policies related to energy efficiency, renewable energy mix, industrial process, land use change (forestry and agriculture) and waste management can have convergence attributes. India’s promising ambition to de-velop and operate 100 GW of full scale solar energy by 2022 will be part of this com-prehensive package what India is going offer in its INDCs submission. Shifting its Base Year towards 2005 will place India in a favourable position to anticipate the peaking emission year in a more assertive way, as it will be anchored around inven-tory submission with respect to the identified Base Year.

2. Time frames and or periods for implementation-

The objective of INDCs or National Intensions is to limit a 2 degree Celsius global rise in temperature and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assess-ment Report (AR5) and Emissions Gap Report estimated that the total budget for CO2 emission is approximately 59.5 Gt of CO2 eq. Although the scientific commu-nity has sketchily reached consensus on the global emissions pathway, allocation of the annual budgets to each individual country remains a fiercely debated topic. The emission gap between developed and developing nations is absolute and stark. It is a black and white scenario. Developed countries have to deliver more and exten-

sively in terms of fulfillment of emission removals and reduction in the emission intensity in terms of the annual budgets allocation.

To make COP 21- Paris agreement successful developed countries have to step up and demonstrate leadership by setting up upright, ambitious and prehensile time frames and periods for implementation.

Developed countries mainly EU, Australia, Canada and Japan may go for a time frame commitment until the end of 2030. The quantified commitment by 2030’s would be translated through average commitments from beginning of 2017 to the end of 2030. The achievement will be tracked by information available with national inventories. This information will be dynamic in nature and will be constantly evolving.

To keep the total budget for CO2 emission around 1,000 Gt. of CO2 eq. developed countries must vacate the emission space and budget with in the time period of 2030, mainly because countries like India, China, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil may anticipate peak emission years with in this time frame. To keep the total emis-sion budget on zero sum mode it important for developed countries to vacate the existing carbon space.

There may be possibilities that developed countries can advocate the addition/subtraction of emission reductions transferred internationally (through carbon cred-its) in light of a unified emission budget approach.

India’s perspective – It will be highly likely that India will go for a time frame com-mitment until the end of 2040-50, if India sets up its Base Year around 2005. India as a country is expected to grow at the rate of over 8% over next 9-10 years. India’s GDP Per Capita (Purchasing Power Parity) is expected to enhance from 5,412 USD to 7,311 USD in next 9-10 years, which will again directly influence and heighten aggregated emissions from 2.009 Gt. of CO2 eq. to 4.287 Gt. of CO2 eq. If the time frame is expanded for India from 2030 to 2050, as a country India can definitely find a trade off between economic development and sustainability.

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3. Scope and Coverage-

Gases covered - When it comes to list scope and coverage to list green house gases or CO2 eq. gases national government need to be very realistic and scientifically ac-curate. There are indeed different types of green house gases and which have differ-ent global warming potential associated with it. How national government is going to identify and list them is going to be critically important because it can directly influence the entire calculations and scientific attributes associated with emission removals commitments. National government irrespective of developed and devel-oping countries may list green house gases like - CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3.

It will interesting to see that few gases which have much greater global warming potential like Tetrafluoroethane (HFC134a), Fluoroform (HFC-23) and Tetrafluoro-methane (CF4) are already witnessing a complete phase out processes and interven-tions due to enforcing Montreal Protocol mainly in developed countries. In this con-nection developed countries may not list them at all.

However, developing countries may include them because the international enforce-ment factors associated with them are relatively extended with respect to developed countries.

Sectors covered- Both developed countries and developing countries will list al-most major thrust sectors like energy; industrial processes and product use; agricul-ture; land-use, land-use change and forestry; waste.

Some developed countries specially the EU lobby will give favourable consent and support for the inclusion of international aviation and shipping on the bases of fu-ture internationally agreed rules applicable to all Parties. However, it may or may not be included in their INDCs or National Intensions submission.

India’s perspective – India have demonstrated quality leadership in the past in pro-viding a very detailed description of green house gas with its comprehensive na-tional communication submission and is likely to do so in future. India may list Te-trafluoroethane (HFC134a), Fluoroform (HFC-23) and Tetrafluoromethane (CF4) along with carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluoro-carbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) emitted by sources and their removal by sinks.

Indian national government will cover sectors that will include: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land use, land -use change and forestry, and waste. India may include emission sources like Fugitive Fuel Emission (Oil and Natural Gas Sys-tem and Coal Mining), Agricultural Crop Residues, Emissions from Soils, Emission from Bunker Fuels and Biomass.

4. Planning Process –

Planning process and governance aspects for National Intensions is going to be im-portant for national government. It is going to be nucleus of the commitment decla-ration proposed by national government in their INDCs. Developed countries and developing countries are expected to provide all-inclusive information on national implementation part and long-term strategy associated with their National Inten-sions to make it more transparent, accountable, effective and credible in an interna-tional setting.

National implementation part -When it comes for national implementation part, national governments will propose an effective strategic policy instrument to make their commitment feasible and tangible. The strategic policy instrument will have strong characteristics to measure initiatives, which will allow emission reductions of its targets to be achieved mainly domestically. The proposed measures to achieve the commitments will build on existing measures and strategies. National govern-ments will tend to coverage its existing policies and legal frameworks in this con-text and expected to enhance the due diligence features associated with monitoring, reporting and verification.

Long-term strategy - National governments may list plans, actions and directives for their domestic policies related to climate change in a chronological space. Na-tional governments are expected to formulate an indicative goal to reduce emission as per their commitments. Pro-active national governments will seek room for exter-nal transparent reviews, monitoring and evaluation support and foster further col-laboration.

India’s perspective – India is having a pro-active stance in this regard, be it in the domain of policy formulation or implementation it had set high standards and will continue to do so. India’s development plans are crafted with a balanced emphasis on economic development and environment. The planning process, while targeting an accelerated economic growth, is guided by the principles of sustainable develop-

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ment with a commitment to a cleaner and greener environment. Planning in India seeks to increase wealth and human welfare, while simultaneously conserving the environment. It emphasizes promotion of people’s participatory institutions and social mobilization, particularly through empowerment of women, for ensuring en-vironmental sustainability of the development process. India is having a well chalked out climate policy called National Action Plan on Climate Change, which is multi pronged, long-term and integrated for achieving key goals in context of cli-mate change.

5. Assumptions and methodological approaches

Developed and developing countries will chose directive and action sets available under internationally accepted accounting standards for greenhouse gas emission assessment and reporting. National Intensions are designed in a way that it will give governments to take strong actions and modes for domestic emission removals and focus on reducing emission potential at national level. However, developed and de-veloping countries may propose different assumption sets and methodological ap-proaches.

Credits from market mechanism – Developed countries especially EU may opt for using carbon credits from international mechanisms. Developed countries may use carbon credits from with high environmental standards with top-notch quality prop-erties that may deliver real, permanent, additional and verified mitigation out-comes. Developed countries will support reform of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and New Market Mechanism (NMM). It is highly unlikely that CDM will experience the surge what it was before mainly because the global economic envi-ronment changed drastically and governance associated with CDM delivery needed more due diligence and transparency.

For non forest (cropland, grassland, wetland, settlements and other lands) and forest land – National governments from developed and developing countries plans to include non forest land and mechanisms to anticipates ways to switch to a comprehensive land based approach. For forestland approach national govern-ments may use methodologies listed under the Kyoto protocol will be applied.

National governments may follow existing guidance under the Convention and IPCC methodologies in accounting and reporting. National governments may use various revised IPCC updated guidelines, as per UNFCCC relevant decisions (2/CMP.6 and 2/CMP.7). Global warming potential values will be used as per UNFCCC decision 24/CP.19. National governments may propose to account for all significant anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks and does not regress regarding the comprehensiveness in accounting.

India’s perspective – It is likely that India may demonstrate some high standards with assumption and methodological approaches. India may list assumptions that will be pragmatic and accurate in terms of its economic situation and its liking for sustainable development. According to various scientific assessment studies India has been identified as one the most vulnerable country in the world due to climate change in terms of population displacement, food security, human development and infrastructure loss. India as a country needs to address the concern related to economic and social development first and will seek collaborations and guidance from developed countries in terms financial and technology assistance.

6. Consideration on fairness and ambition –

The national governments from developed and developing countries must accept common and differentiated responsibilities associated with efforts to combat global climate change in a fair and equitable manner. The same legal form and rules must apply to all Parties, while the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be dif-ferentiated according to a Party’s responsibility and capability.

National governments may agree on some high points related to –

Responsibility - Responsibility must be reflected in a country’s past, current and future greenhouse gas emissions. Total emissions as well as per capita emissions are to be considered. This will definitely bring in more equity and sense of fairness in context of success of National Intensions submissions.

Capacity - Capacity to contribute to solving the climate problem is closely related to the ability to invest in appropriate mitigation measures, such as carbon-efficient technologies. Hence, one aspect of capacity is to take into account GDP per capita in fairness considerations. Capacity and competency associated with different national governments are not the same.

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Associated Cost - Cost-efficient mitigation potential, economically favourable mod-els and abatement costs are indeed central aspect in considering a fair contribution of any country. Abatement costs vary strongly across countries.

Developed countries certainly can go ambitious with abatement measures, emission removals and mitigation strategies with respect to emission intensity. Whereas, de-veloping countries need to balance their economic development priorities with emis-sion mitigation strategies. To ensure fairness considerations, it is important to merit past efforts, rewards early movers and creating more for financial cooperation, pol-icy making assistance and technology transfers related to intellectual property rights from developed countries to developing countries.

India’s perspective – It is important for India to present correct situational informa-tion in terms of vulnerability and adaptation needs. India needs to put forward the actual need for financial cooperation and technology transfer aspects in grounds of fairness and equity to demonstrate leadership in context of ambitious emission measures. The per capita emission for India is 1.7 Mt. CO2 eq. which is drastically low if compared with developed nations or even developing nations like China.

7. How the INDC contributes to achieving the ultimate objective of the Conven-tion (Article 2) –

In order to limit to a 20C global rise in temperature according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) the total budget for CO2 emissions must remain under 1,000 Gt of CO2 eq. in this regard national govern-ments must mention it clearly the emission abatements and emission intensity re-movals in the stipulated time frame proposed in their respective information decla-rations and commitments.

India’s perspective - India must go for assessment in over-all global carbon budget allocation and it is going to fit in this allocation landscape. India must propose accu-rate, pragmatic and tangible abatement figures, which will have strong penchant for achievement of the ultimate objective.

The second set of information announcement with National Intensions will involve country specific information:

Comprehensive and updated review on green house gas emission sectors, gross do-mestic product, economics and population growth. Countries can also present narra-tive information on climate change vulnerability assessment with specific sectors and also directives on promised interventions proposed by them.

INDCs or National Intensions would be submitted by the first quarter of 2015 (for those who are in a position to do so) or by 1 October 2015. It will provide an oppor-tunity for developed countries and developing countries to develop their own ac-tion plan and act on it.

About the author -

Ritwajit Das is an independent international environmental researcher working as climate tracker with Global Call For Climate Action. He is also serving as a Mentor with Climate Reality Project and personally trained by Mr. Al Gore (Ex- Vice Presi-dent of USA). Ritwajit has extensive work experience in the area of policy space in climate change mitigation – Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), Low Emission Development (LEDs), Low Carbon Development (LCD), INDCs, Car-bon Finance, Sustainable Urbanization and climate change adaptation- vulnerabil-ity and adaptation programmes, REDD+ and biodiversity conservation. He has worked across in 11 different countries in Asia, Africa and Europe.

Ritwajit can be reached at

Email - ritwajit.das@gmail.com

Twitter - @Ritwajit

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