How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big...
-
Upload
abel-gardner -
Category
Documents
-
view
226 -
download
0
Transcript of How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big...
![Page 1: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira,a 100-million User Company
Calin-Andrei BurloiuBig Data Engineer
Iulia PașovMachine Learning
Engineer
Strata + Hadoop WorldNew York, 2015
![Page 2: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
About Avira
• Headquarters in Tettnang, Germany
• Security applications for– Windows– Mac OS– iOS– Android
• Awarded for malware detection
![Page 3: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Big Data at Avira
• 430 million global installs• 100 million users• On-premise Hadoop cluster– 7 worker nodes– 30 TB logs and events– 5 TB monthly new data
![Page 4: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
About User Churn
Active Installs
New Installs Uninstalls
![Page 5: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Steps
Diagnosis
What can we measure?
Which are the churn reasons?
Understanding
Why do users have issues?
Who is likely to churn?
Treatment & Prevention
How can we react to prevent this?
![Page 6: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Churn DiagnosisWhat can we measure?
Which are the churn reasons?
![Page 7: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
What can we measure?
• Metrics– Churn rate– New Installs– Active users– Usage patterns
![Page 8: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Computing Churn from Uninstall Events
• Uninstall events collected as application logs
• Pros:– An event is an uninstall for
sure• Some users reinstall
• Cons:– Some events are lostoffline
online
![Page 9: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Computing Churn from User Inactivity
• Check user event logs• Users are considered churned after some time of inactivity• Pros:
– More accurate• Cons:
– Requires waiting– Results come too late
0 10 20 30 40 50
Days
user inactive for 30 daysuser returns in the 31st day
![Page 10: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
User Inactivity Convergence
1-Apr 11-Apr 21-Apr 1-May 11-May 21-May 31-May0
50
100
150
200
250
3118 10In
acti
ve u
sers
![Page 11: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Estimating User Churn
• Predict monthly user churn rate– Predictor
• uninstall events– Outcome
• inactive users
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0
20
40
60
80
100
uninstall inactivepredicted
![Page 12: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Performing Survival Analysis
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
150.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
60%
Su
rviv
al P
rob
ab
ilit
y
![Page 13: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
User Profile
• Consider– Devices– Behavior– Technical savviness– Business or consumer?– Errors
Users
User Profile
![Page 14: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Churned Users
Active
Churned
![Page 15: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Uninstall Surveys
• Ask users to complete a survey on uninstall
• Find churn reasons• 1% users complete surveys• Complaints from the past
Uninstall
Surveys
![Page 16: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Lifecycle Surveys
• Complaints from the present• Ask users to give feedback a
few weeks after installation• Questions based on insights
from uninstall surveys
• Market research– Know your product’s
market
Lifecycle
Surveys
![Page 17: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Extracting Sentiments from SurveysUninsta
ll Survey
s
Lifecycle
Surveys
Sentiment
Analysis
• Sentiment analysis– Negative review
• Dissatisfaction– Positive review
• Arbitrary reasons (e.g. reinstall)
![Page 18: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Extracting Churn Reasons from Surveys
• Topic detection– Churn reasons
• Insights might be misleading
Uninstall
Surveys
Lifecycle
Surveys
Sentiment
Analysis
Topic Detectio
n
Reasons
![Page 19: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Churn UnderstandingWhy do users have issues?
Who is likely to churn?
![Page 20: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Matching Profiles with Reasons
• Compare users– With churn
reasons– Loyal
• Find patterns– Characteristics– Behavior– Context
Uninstall
Surveys
Lifecycle
Surveys
Sentiment
Analysis
Topic Detectio
n
Reasons
User Profile Match
![Page 21: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
How Avira Identified Churnable Users
• Uninstalled surveys revealed an “update” issue as a churn reason– “The product could not update so I uninstalled.”
• User profile of users with the “update” problem– Context
• A particular version of the antivirus– Behavior
• Antivirus didn’t update for at least 2 weeks• Users were active at least 4 times in 2 weeks
![Page 22: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Churn Treatment & Prevention
How can we react to prevent this?
![Page 23: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
How can we help?• Find solutions for each churn reason• Directly
– Fix bugs– Fix UX– Add requested features– Offer the right price for extra features
• Indirectly– Head them to support team
![Page 24: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
To Summarize...• Know your data• Diagnose users who leave• Find and understand reasons• Treat every reason to prevent churn
![Page 25: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: How Data Science Helps Prevent Churn at Avira, a 100-million User Company Calin-Andrei Burloiu Big Data Engineer Iulia Paov Machine Learning Engineer Strata.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649f155503460f94c2a0df/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Acknowledgements• Many thanks to our colleagues who worked with us on this project
or helped us with the presentation• Rodica Coderie
• Data Scientist
• Viacheslav Rodionov• Big Data Engineer
• Anna Tyrkich• Designer