How can ‘Yield gap analysis’ be useful :Global yield gap atlas (gyga)
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Transcript of How can ‘Yield gap analysis’ be useful :Global yield gap atlas (gyga)
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How can ‘Yield gap analysis’ be useful Critical questions of policy makers and R&D organizations:
Where and how can food production be increased on existing agricultural land? Will it be possible for country/region X to be self-
sufficient in food production by 2030 or 2050? What are the causes of yield gaps and how to
overcome them? How can we better target options for sustainable
intensification?
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What is novel about the GYGA approach?
‘top-down’ approach
Gridded weather, soil, and crop data allows full coverage but
has large uncertainty
Simulation unit: grid
?
Too coarse to be locally relevant and difficult to
validate
Targeting a tractable number of locations for
data collection
Simulation unit: location x soil x crop system combination
within a climate zone
Upscaling from location to region or country by a
robust CZ scheme
Soil 2
Soil 3Soil 1
LOCATION A
Full coverage without loosing local relevance
GYGA ‘bottom-up’ approach
Soil 2
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Yield gap analysis: protocol
Climate zones
Crop-specific harvested areas
Weather station buffer zones
Soil types and cropping systems
Crop model simulations
Actual yields
Yield gaps
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Countries currently in the GYGA website
Completed (27)In progress (19)Likely additions (4)
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Summary of GYGA outputs
Interactive website with yield potential, yield gaps, and water productivity for 8 major crops in 27 countries (46 soon)• Open access to data• Transparent, reproducible protocols
Robust spatial framework based on climate zonation First high resolution digital map with functional soil properties
in SSA Novel protocols for propagating weather data, selection of data
sources, and crop modeling ~15 highly cited publications
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Yield gaps in 10 countries in SSA
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Application: GYGA technology extrapolation domains
• Targeting field research/experimentation• Technology transfer and adoption at scale• Research prioritization for R & D investments• Ex-ante and ex-poste impact assessment• Research on climate change impacts
Claessens et al., in prep.
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Application: country food self-sufficiency analyses
Van Ittersum et al., in prep.
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Objectives
• Significantly advance scientific capabilities for addressing complex agricultural & food security issues in the context of climate change
• Integrated assessments (bio-physical, socio-economic) and ex ante evaluation of adaptation practices & policies
• Global and regional scale levels
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Two-Track Science Approach
Track 1: Model Improvement and IntercomparisonTrack 2: Climate Change Multi-Model Assessment
Regional and Global Scales
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Teams, Linkages and Outcomes
Capacity Building and Decision Making
• Regional vulnerability • Adaptation strategies• Trade policy instruments• Technology exchange
Climate Team
Crop Modeling Team
Economics Team
Information Technology
Team
Improvements and Intercomparisons
• Crop models• Agricultural economic models• Scenario construction• Aggregation methodologies
Cross-Cutting Themes
• Uncertainty
• Aggregation and Scaling
• Representative Agricultural Pathways
Assessments• Regional• Global• Crop-specific
Work Groups
• Soils• Water
Resources• Livestock
and Grasslands
• Pests and Diseases
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Regional Integrated Assessments
• 4 regional projects in SSA, 4 in SA• Impact assessment of climate change and adaptation• Systems modeling: crops, livestock, climate, economics• Multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios (RAPs)• Stakeholder interactions along research pathway