How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark...

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How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… creating value for all stakeholders Mines and Money…December 2014

Transcript of How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark...

Page 1: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

How can mining companies maximise shareholder return…creating value for all stakeholders

Mines and Money…December 2014

Page 2: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Gold price 2002 to 2014…longest rally in history

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Page 3: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Gold mining industry fails to deliver value…

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Euromoney Global Gold Index

2002 2014

Source: SNL

Page 4: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Higher revenue and steady production…recipe for profits?

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Mine Production Gold Price

Source: SNL

Page 5: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Cumulative free cash flow burn for top gold companies…shareholders footing the bill

$16bn cumulative negative FCF since 2000

Number of shares in issue trebled

This was despite a 4-fold rise in the gold price during this period

We expect this trend to accelerate in a low gold price environment

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Shares outstanding Bn (RHS)

Cumulative Free Cash Flow US$m (LHS)

$ Bn Shares Bn

Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg (global gold mining companies under City coverage)

Page 6: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Capital expenditure grows without delivering benefits…

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Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg

Page 7: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Industry failed to replace what it mined for more than a decade…

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3-yr Running Avg of Potential Au Prd from Discoveries** (mil oz)

CPM's World Gold Mine Production (mil oz)

Exploration Budgets Aimed at Discovery* (US$ mil)

Moz US$m

Page 8: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Lack of exploration success drives decline in grade…

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Reserve Grade Mining Head Gradeg/t

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Mining head grade

Major gold producers…reserve calculation prices

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Source: Scotiabank September 2013

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Page 9: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Gap between gold production and replacement threatens sustainability…

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Gold price

Source: SNL

Page 10: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Creating profitable partnerships is core to the mining industry…

Mining Companies

and Investors

Employees and

communities

Governments NGO’s and Regulators

Provide enabling platform for businessProvide or incentivise development of infrastructureMining legislation to enable investment, conducive to fiscal and legal stability, as well as good governanceProvide regional safety and security

Responsibility of mining companies:

Responsibility ofGovernments:

Attract first world financeGuard against exploitation of equity markets at expense of host countryDeal honestly and transparently with governmentsCreate jobsTransfer skillsSupport local suppliersHave meaningful social responsibility programmesMine profitably, pay taxes

Page 11: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Expand capacity in the trough and take profits at the peak…

$$$$$$

expand ing capacity in the

troughs

taking profits in the peaks expansion at

peak in gold price

BUST in the trough

Page 12: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Gold production costs vs gold price…

Source: Scotia equity research

Page 13: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

SE Asia

RussiaCentral AsiaCanada

USA

Where to find >3Moz gold deposits… major global gold districts

Americas - 628̴ 2.2Boz / 0.5g/t

Africa - 222̴ 1.4Boz / 1.4g/t

Europe / Central Asia - 247̴ 0.9Boz / 0.8g/t

Australasia - 268̴ 1.3Boz / 0.6g/t

Total global gold resources – 1 4655.8Boz / 0.6g/t

Source: Metals Economics Group – includes all global assets with >500oz contained Au

Central America

AustraliaWest Africa

Central Africa

South Africa

South America

Alaska

Page 14: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Feasibility studies should be banked…

Geometallurgy drives metallurgical testworkrepresentativity of samples critical

Optimisation and Mine Designcapital mine design and production schedule

Trade off studies on principal conceptsOpen pit vs UG – decline vs shaft – cave or open stope,

backfill options – CAF vs paste

Geological, resource and geotechnical modelsdefine mining method

Gatekeepers to ensure reserves pass our filters

Orebodies drive profitabilityreturns set by capital costs and reserve grade

Page 15: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Making investment decisions…

Does it apply principally to gold?

Have we identified and understood the country risks?

Does it fit our values?

Will we have active management participation?

Will it enhance our partnering network?

Does it diversify our geographical exposure?

Does it have a reserve potential greater than 3 million ounces of gold?

Does it have the potential to be +200 000oz per year producer?

Can we move it up the value curve?

Does it have the potential to be in the lowest total unit cost quartile?

Can it produce an IRR in excess of 20%?

Does it have a payback of less than 2 years?

Is it accretionary to our share value?

Page 16: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Value creation in the gold industry is possible…

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Indexed: 1 July 2002=100

Page 17: How can mining companies maximise shareholder return… Creating value for all stakeholders - Mark Bristow, Randgold Resources

Disclaimer…

Randgol d reports its mi neral resources and mi ner al reserves i n accordance with the JORC 2012 code. As suchnumbers are reported to the second significant digit. T hey are equivalent to N ational Instrument 43-101. Mineralresources are reported at a cut-off grade based on a gold price of US$1 500/oz.The reporting of mineral reserves is also i n accordance with Indus try Guide 7. Pit opti misati ons are carried out at agold price of US$1 000/oz, except for Morila which is r eported at US$1 300/oz. Mineral reserves ar e reported at acut-off grade based on US$1 000/oz gold price withi n the pit desi gns. Underground reserves ar e also based on agold price of US$1 000/oz. Dilution and ore loss are incorporated into the calculation of reserves . Cautionary noteto US investors: The United States Securities and Exchange Commissi on (the SEC) per mits mini ng companies , intheir filings with the SEC, to disclose only proven and probabl e ore reserves . R andgold uses certain ter ms in thisannual report such as ‘resources’, that the SEC does not recognise and strictly pr ohibits the company fromincluding in its filings with the SEC. Investors ar e cautioned not to assume that all or any parts of the company’sresources will ever be converted into reserves w hich qualify as ‘proven and probable reserves’ for the purposes ofthe SEC’s Industry Guide number 7.

CAUTIONARY NOTE R EGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING ST ATEMENTS: Except for the historical infor mationcontained her ein, the matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning ofSection 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933 and Secti on 21E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, andapplicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include, but ar e not li mited to, statementswith respect to the futur e price of gold, the esti mation of mineral reserves and resources, the realisation of mineralreserve esti mates, the ti ming and amount of es ti mated future production, cos ts of production, reservedeter mination and r eserve conversion rates. Generally, these forward-looking statements can be i dentified by theuse of forward-looking ter minology such as ‘will’, ‘plans’, ‘expects’ or ‘ does not expect’, ‘is expec ted’, ‘budget’,‘scheduled’, ‘esti mates’, ‘forecasts’, ‘intends’, ‘anticipates’ or ‘does not anticipate’, or ‘believes’, or variations ofsuch wor ds and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results ‘ may’, ‘could’, ‘would’, ‘ mi ght’ or ‘will betaken’, ‘occur’ or ‘be achieved’. Assumptions upon which such forward-looking statements are based are i n tur nbased on factors and events that are not withi n the control of R andgold R esources Li mited (‘Randgold’) and ther eis no assurance they will prove to be correct. F orward-looking s tatements are subj ect to known and unknow nrisks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the ac tual results, level of activity, perfor mance orachievements of Randgold to be materially different from those expr essed or i mplied by such forward-lookingstatements , including but not li mited to: risks related to mining oper ations, including political risks and instabilityand risks related to international operati ons, actual results of current explorati on ac tivities, conclusions ofeconomic evaluations , changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, as well as those factorsdiscussed in Randgold’s filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the ‘ SEC’). Although Randgol dhas attempted to identify i mportant fac tors that could cause ac tual results to dif fer materially from those contai nedin forward-looking statements , there may be other fac tors that cause results not to be as anticipated, esti mated orintended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and futur eevents could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements . Accordingly, readers should not placeundue reliance on forward-looking statements. Randgold does not undertake to update any forward-lookingstatements herein, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.CAUTIONARY NOTE TO US IN VESTOR S: T he SEC per mits companies , i n their filings with the SEC, to discloseonly proven and probable ore reserves . We use certai n ter ms in this release, such as ‘resources’, that the SECdoes not recognise and strictly prohibits us from i ncluding in our filings with the SEC. Inves tors are cautioned notto assume that all or any parts of our resources will ever be converted into reserves which qualify as ‘proven andprobable reserves’ for the purposes of the SEC’s Industry Guide number 7.