Hout&fischer pew 8 aug
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Americans’ Weakening Ties to Organized Religion, 1973-2012: Generations & Politics
Michael HoutNew York University
Claude S. FischerUniversity of California, Berkeley
Pew Research Centers Religion & Public Life Project
8 August 2013
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We analyzed the trend 1973–2000
Politics:Political liberals and moderates — but not conservatives —increasingly declared no religion
Generations:Cohort replacement accounted for 40% of the trend
Why do generations differ?
American Sociological Review, April 2002
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Today:Update the trend through 2012Discuss why cohorts differ
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Updating the trend
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Smoother, slower — but sustained — rise
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
No
relig
ious
pre
fere
nce
(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012Year
Notes: Dots are observed data, vertical lines show 95% confidence interval, and the trend line is estimated using locally estimated (loess) regression.
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Smoother, slower — but sustained — rise
1991
Hout-Fischer model
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
No
relig
ious
pre
fere
nce
(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012Year
Notes: Dots are observed data, vertical lines show 95% confidence interval, and the trend line is estimated using locally estimated (loess) regression.
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0
10
20
30
40
No
relig
ion
(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
LiberalConservative
Political gap not only persisted… it got wider
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Cohort replacement clear then
1900-19151916-19251926-19351936-1945
1946-19551956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
0
10
20
30
No
relig
ious
pre
fere
nce
(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012Year
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Cohort replacement clear then
1900-19151916-19251926-19351936-1945
1946-19551956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
0
10
20
30
No
relig
ious
pre
fere
nce
(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012Year
Explained 40% of trend
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1900-1915
1916-1925
1926-19351936-1945
1946-19551956-1965
1966-1975
1976-19851986-1995
0
10
20
30
No
relig
ious
pre
fere
nce
(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012Year
Cohort replacement clearer now
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1900-1915
1916-1925
1926-19351936-1945
1946-19551956-1965
1966-1975
1976-19851986-1995
0
10
20
30
No
relig
ious
pre
fere
nce
(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012Year
Cohort replacement clearer now
Explains 60% of trend
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What explains cohort differences?
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Politics & cohort differences both rooted in:
Culture shock
… & two aftershocks
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The shock
Sex
Drugs
Question authority
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First aftershock
Moral majority
Traditional values
Church-based
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Second aftershock
AIDS kills sons, brothers, uncles & cousins
Gay ➞ normal
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Two more considerations
Many parents emphasize “think for yourself” over obedience
Undermines the authority in traditional authority
… including the teaching authority of religious leaders
Academic literature: Miller & Swanson, Lenski, Kohn, Alwin.17
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… and secularization
Heaven
AfterlifeMiracles
Hell
Godno doubt
Bibleword-for-word
Atheist or Agnostic
0
25
50
75
100
Belie
f (%
)
1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990Year of Birth
Source: General Social Surveys, 1988-2010.
Boomers skeptical about BibleRecent cohorts have more doubts about God & more agnostic
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Our statistical test
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Random effects model of cohort differences
Null NewPersonal characteristicsPeriod: dummiesCohort: random effects
Personal characteristicsPeriod: dummiesCohort: random effects
Counter-cultural attitudes regarding sex & drugsValues independent thinkingSecularization index
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Random effects model of cohort differences
Null NewPersonal characteristicsPeriod: dummiesCohort: random effects
Personal characteristicsPeriod: dummiesCohort: random effects
Counter-cultural attitudes regarding sex & drugsValues independent thinkingSecularization index
Cohort differences, not personal
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Cohort differences explained by sex, drugs, and independent thinking (not disbelief)
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of Cohort Random EffectsCoefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of Cohort Random EffectsCoefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of Cohort Random Effects
Cohort variable Null NewCounter-cultural attitudes regarding sex and drugs
— 0.36Counter-cultural attitudes regarding sex and drugs (0.07)Values independent thinking — 0.24
(0.06)Secularization index — 0.04
(0.03)Cohort: random effects (σ) 0.41 0.08
(0.05) (0.03)Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.
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Conclusions
Politics:Political liberals and moderates — but not conservatives —increasingly declared no religion
Generations:Cohort replacement accounted for 40% of the trend
American Sociological Review, April 2002
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Conclusions
Politics:Political liberals and moderates — but not conservatives —increasingly declared no religion
Generations:Cohort replacement accounted for 60% of the trend
Baby boom and later generations developed values and attitudes that undermine traditional authorityNo sign of secularization
American Sociological Review, April 2002
Confirmed
Extended
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