Houston Economic Overview for HGACfiles.constantcontact.com/5a4e9fbe001/1e2149e7-d9... · July 1,...
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Houston Economic Outlook Jenny Philip
Transcript of Houston Economic Overview for HGACfiles.constantcontact.com/5a4e9fbe001/1e2149e7-d9... · July 1,...
Houston Economic Outlook
Jenny Philip
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Are you a Polyanna or Debbie Downer?
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Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16
$ P
er Barrel
$ P
er Barrel
$ P
er Barrel
$ P
er Barrel
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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WTI Spot Price
Thursday Close = $51.74/barrel
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Work
ing Rigs
Work
ing Rigs
Work
ing Rigs
Work
ing Rigs
Source: Baker Hughes
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U.S. Rig Count
March 31, 2017 = 824 Rigs
Regional Employment, Net Change
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'14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
12121212----Month Running TotalsMonth Running TotalsMonth Running TotalsMonth Running Totals
Regional Employment, Net Change
-20
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'14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
12121212----Month Running TotalsMonth Running TotalsMonth Running TotalsMonth Running Totals
Regional Employment, Net Change
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'14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17
Jobs, 000s
Jobs, 000s
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Source: Texas Workforce Commission
12121212----Month Running TotalsMonth Running TotalsMonth Running TotalsMonth Running Totals
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$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
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$40
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$52
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16
Ave
rage W
eekly W
ages
Tota
l W
ages, B
illions
Metro Houston WagesTotal Wages and Average Weekly Wage
Total Wages Avg Weekly Wages
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Regional Wages
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Benchmark Revisions
Metro Houston Job Growth (Dec to Dec)Metro Houston Job Growth (Dec to Dec)Metro Houston Job Growth (Dec to Dec)Metro Houston Job Growth (Dec to Dec)
Before Revision After Revision
2012 118,600 118,800
2013 89,800 90,400
2014 117,800 118,200
2015 15,200 200
2016 14,800 18,700
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
118.2
0.2
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'14 '15 '16
Houston Job Growth, Dec – Dec (000s)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
91.0
21.3
-110.5
50.3
83.1
118.8
90.4
118.2
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18.729.7
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Houston Job Growth, Dec – Dec (000s)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = ContractionAbove 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = ContractionAbove 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = ContractionAbove 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction
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Purchasing Managers Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston
SectorSectorSectorSectorJobs Lost Jobs Lost Jobs Lost Jobs Lost
Dec ’14 Dec ’14 Dec ’14 Dec ’14 –––– Dec ’16 Dec ’16 Dec ’16 Dec ’16 %%%%
Exploration & Production -11,000 -18.7%
Oil Field Services -19,900 -35.6
Fabricated Metal Products -18,700 -28.2
Equipment Manufacturing -20,600 -34.0
Engineering -10,900 -14.3
Total Losses -81,100 -25.5%Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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Energy Losses
SectorSectorSectorSectorJobs GainedJobs GainedJobs GainedJobs Gained
Dec ’14Dec ’14Dec ’14Dec ’14 –––– Dec ’16Dec ’16Dec ’16Dec ’16%%%%
Health Care 27,200 7.5%
Hotels, Restaurants, Bars 21,800 8.4
Public Education (ISDs) 13,900 7.0
Retail Trade 10,900 3.5
Financial Activities 6,000 4.0
Arts, Entertainment 4,000 13.9
Total Gains +83,800
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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Top Non-Energy Gainers
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$ B
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Source: Dodge Data and Analytics
12121212----Month Moving TotalMonth Moving TotalMonth Moving TotalMonth Moving Total
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Construction Starts, Metro Area
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Source: Dodge Data and Analytics
12121212----Month Moving TotalMonth Moving TotalMonth Moving TotalMonth Moving Total
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Construction Starts, Metro Area
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July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016
125,005 new residents125,005 new residents125,005 new residents125,005 new residents
9999----county Houston Metro Areacounty Houston Metro Areacounty Houston Metro Areacounty Houston Metro Area
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RankRankRankRank Metro AreaMetro AreaMetro AreaMetro Area Population as of 7/1/16Population as of 7/1/16Population as of 7/1/16Population as of 7/1/16 Change since 7/1/15Change since 7/1/15Change since 7/1/15Change since 7/1/15
1 New York 20,153,634 35,571
2 Los Angeles 13,310,447 41,619
3 Chicago 9,512,999 (19,570)
4 Dallas-Fort Worth 7,233,323 143,435
5555 HoustonHoustonHoustonHouston 6,772,470 6,772,470 6,772,470 6,772,470 125,005 125,005 125,005 125,005
6 Washington, D.C. 6,131,977 53,508
7 Philadelphia 6,070,500 8,197
8 Miami 6,066,387 64,670
9 Atlanta 5,789,700 90,650
10 Boston 4,794,447 27,692
Source: U.S. Census BureauSource: U.S. Census BureauSource: U.S. Census BureauSource: U.S. Census Bureau
10 Most Populous Metro Areas
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Births 102,152
Deaths -40,536
Natural Increase Natural Increase Natural Increase Natural Increase 61,61661,61661,61661,616
Net International1 35,000
Net Domestic +28,090
Net In-Migration 63,090
Total2 125,0051 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations.2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Components of Growth, 7/15 – 7/16
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Births 102,152
Deaths -40,536
Net Natural Increase Net Natural Increase Net Natural Increase Net Natural Increase 61,61661,61661,61661,616
In-Migration
International 35,000
Domestic 28,090
InInInIn----MigrationMigrationMigrationMigration 63,09063,09063,09063,090
Total2 125,0051 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations.2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Components of Growth, 7/15 – 7/16
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Births 102,152
Deaths -40,536
Natural Increase Natural Increase Natural Increase Natural Increase 61,61661,61661,61661,616
In-Migration
International 35,000
Domestic 28,090
InInInIn----MigrationMigrationMigrationMigration 63,09063,09063,09063,090
TotalTotalTotalTotal2222 125,005125,005125,005125,0051 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations.2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Components of Growth, 7/15 – 7/16
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Metro AreaMetro AreaMetro AreaMetro Area Net GrowthNet GrowthNet GrowthNet Growth
HoustonHoustonHoustonHouston 851,971851,971851,971851,971
Dallas-Fort Worth 807,082
New York 587,163
Atlanta 502,975
Miami 500,089
Washington 495,561
Los Angeles 481,486
Boston 241,852
Philadelphia 104,838
Chicago 51,449
Long-Term Growth, 7/10 – 7/16
Current Metro Populations
Baton Rouge, LA = 835,175
New Haven, CT = 856,875
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Metro AreaMetro AreaMetro AreaMetro Area---------------------------------------- Net Migration Net Migration Net Migration Net Migration ----------------------------------------
TotalTotalTotalTotal InternationalInternationalInternationalInternational DomesticDomesticDomesticDomestic
HoustonHoustonHoustonHouston 476,857476,857476,857476,857 193,618193,618193,618193,618 283,239283,239283,239283,239
Dallas-Fort Worth 444,944 140,476 304,468
New York ----53,91253,91253,91253,912 848,704 ----902,616902,616902,616902,616
Atlanta 257,589 104,223 153,366
Miami 374,706 381,468 ----6,7626,7626,7626,762
Washington 199,276 245,540 ----46,26446,26446,26446,264
Los Angeles ----57,11157,11157,11157,111 315,879 ----372,990372,990372,990372,990
Boston 145,718 182,201 ----36,48336,48336,48336,483
Philadelphia ----4,7294,7294,7294,729 123,139 ----127,868127,868127,868127,868
Chicago ----260,662260,662260,662260,662 148,505 ----409,167409,167409,167409,167
Components of Growth, 7/10 – 7/16
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Metro AreaMetro AreaMetro AreaMetro AreaNet
ChangeVital Events Net MigrationNet MigrationNet MigrationNet Migration
Houston 851,971851,971851,971851,971 372,983 476,857
Dallas-Fort Worth 807,082 357,825 444,944
New York 587,163 671,717 ----53,91253,91253,91253,912
Atlanta 502,975 241,489 257,589
Miami 500,089 120,947 374,706
Washington 495,561 297,395 199,276
Los Angeles 481,486 554,435 ----57,11157,11157,11157,111
Boston 241,852 103,093 145,718
Philadelphia 104,838 115,420 ----4,7294,7294,7294,729
Chicago 51,449 321,530 ----260,662260,662260,662260,662
Components of Growth, 7/10 – 7/16
Vital Events = Births minus Deaths
3.0
3.5
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Millio
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau
’4.0 million’4.0 million’4.0 million’4.0 million
5.0 million5.0 million5.0 million5.0 million
6.0 million6.0 million6.0 million6.0 million
6.8 million6.8 million6.8 million6.8 million
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Houston MSA Population
Houston Economic Outlook
Jenny Philip
