Housing Need & Demand in Scotland Kenneth Gibb Seminar in Honour of Alan Holmans December 7 2015,...
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Transcript of Housing Need & Demand in Scotland Kenneth Gibb Seminar in Honour of Alan Holmans December 7 2015,...
Housing Need & Demand in Scotland
Kenneth Gibb
Seminar in Honour of Alan HolmansDecember 7 2015, LSE London
Scotland
• Local Housing Systems Analysis and Local Housing Strategies• Evolving Housing Needs (chiefly Glen)• Housing Needs and Demand Approaches led by Scottish
Government Centre for Housing Market Analysis (HNDA) Gross Flows models – interactions of households and housing stock – includes migration, household formation, affordability, etc. and forms the principal guidance in Scotland and England
• National ‘official’ estimates of annual need:- 8,000 in 2006- 12,000 in 2015
Gross Flows National Need Model 2015
• Core model and variations (migration, disaggregation and market growth)
• Backlog need (11,184)• Newly arising need
(26,461)• Affordable supply (27,326)• (adjusted figure) for annual
affordable need 12,014• Assumptions• Responses
Housing Demand and Supply
• Housebuilding performance• Prices, rents and affordability• Household and population growth• Lending and land• Scotland is different – policy divergence,
council tax and constitutional change opportunities
Alan’s contribution
• Critical to the evolution of housing needs and demand research
• Personally always very helpful and supportive• Memorable mixed metaphors