Housing Market and Economic Update - CoreLogic · 2017-08-03 · Housing Market and Economic Update...

©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.

Housing

Market and

Economic

Update

1

August 2017


Housing overview

2


Portfolio value of housing has reached $7.2 trillion

Residential real estate underpins

Australia's wealth

3

As at the end of July 2017

Residential Real Estate

$7.2 Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.3 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$1.8 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$0.958 Trillion

Number of dwellings

9.9 million

Outstanding

mortgage debt

$1.68 trillion

Household wealth

held in housing

52.4%

Total sales p.a.

477,334

Gross value of

sales p.a.

$281.0 billion

Source: CoreLogic, ABS, APRA, RBA

©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 4

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jul 97 Jul 99 Jul 01 Jul 03 Jul 05 Jul 07 Jul 09 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 17

Annual value growth remains below its

recent peak

Rolling annual change in dwelling values, combined capital cities

Median Prices Capital Gain

$660,000Houses Units Dwellings

Past 12 months 10.9% 7.3% 10.5%

$550,000Annual over five years 8.9% 6.6% 8.6%

Annual over ten years 5.8% 5.2% 5.7%

CoreLogic’s suite of hedonic indices are

available across broad housing types and

across geographical areas including

statistical divisions, statistical subdivisions

and postcodes nationally. For further

information an our hedonic method, please

visit www.corelogic.com.au/indices

Source: CoreLogic

http://www.corelogic.com.au/indices


12.4%

15.9%

2.2%

2.1%

-2.1%

6.5%

-2.1%

12.9%

10.5%

-10% 0% 10% 20%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Past 12 months 10 year average annual

Melbourne and Canberra are now seeing the

strongest annual growth in values

5

Capital gain: Average over 10 years v past 12 months

to July 2017

Annual change in capital city dwelling

values, July 2017

Source: CoreLogic


0

500

1,000

1,500

Jul-97 Jul-02 Jul-07 Jul-12 Jul-170

100

200

300

400

500

600


0

200

400

600

800


1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


5,000

10,000

15,000


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000


Turnover: dwelling sales are slightly lower

over the past year however, the declines

have levelled in most cities

Note up-to-date sales are estimates based on settled dwelling sales and will revise higher as off the plan sales move through to settlement.

Combined capitals

Sydney

Brisbane

Perth

Darwin

Melbourne

Adelaide

Hobart

Canberra

12 month avg

Source: CoreLogic


2.9%

2.7%

4.2%

4.0%

3.6%

5.2%

4.9%

4.1%

3.1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

5.1%

4.4%

0.3%

1.4%

-7.5%

5.7%

-5.4%

8.9%

2.5%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Jul-97 Jul-99 Jul-01 Jul-03 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17

Gro

ss r

en

tal y

ield

An

nu

al r

en

tal c

han

ge

Annual change in rents Gross rental yield

Rental growth is accelerating in most

capital cities however, gross rental yields

continue to compressAnnual change in combined capital city rents vs gross rental yields

Annual change in weekly rents Current gross rental yields

Source: CoreLogic


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nce r

ate

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jun 05 Jun 07 Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 17

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jun 05 Jun 07 Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 17

Vendor metrics: homes are starting to

take a little longer to sell however,

discounting levels remain lowCombined capital city auction clearance rates and volumes

Avg vendor discount, combined capitals Avg time on market, combined capitals

CoreLogic’s suite of vendor metrics are available across broad housing types and across geographical areas including statistical divisions, statistical subdivisions and postcodes nationally.

Note that we typically see a seasonal peak in average time on market each year in January and February.

Source: CoreLogic


Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 6,571 15.4% 21,562 14.3%

Melbourne 7,334 8.0% 27,184 0.9%

Brisbane 3,839 -3.5% 19,427 0.8%

Adelaide 1,784 3.6% 8,004 1.5%

Perth 2,998 -17.3% 19,880 -12.2%

Hobart 316 -10.0% 1,243 -30.6%

Darwin 166 1.8% 1,609 -0.9%

Canberra 587 23.1% 1,839 10.1%

Combined capitals 23,595 3.5% 100,748 0.1%

StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 11,028 12.1% 44,897 0.4%

Vic 10,007 6.0% 48,556 -6.4%

Qld 8,955 -3.4% 63,120 -4.6%

SA 2,438 1.5% 17,536 -1.7%

WA 4,188 -14.1% 33,124 -13.0%

Tas 819 -3.6% 6,108 -20.3%

NT 215 -4.0% 2,197 0.4%

ACT 600 17.2% 1,914 10.1%

National 38,250 2.2% 217,452 -5.6%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17

Total listings New listings

Nationally new stock levels are higher

than they were a year ago while the total

volume of stock for sale remains lower

National number of new and total listings, rolling 4 weeks to 30/07/2017

State and territory property listings Capital city property listings

Note that figures represent the number of residential properties captured as being advertised for sale. This count is based on individual campaigns that have been matched to a CoreLogic property

record, and therefore represents a unique property count.

Source: CoreLogic


$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

May-97 May-01 May-05 May-09 May-13 May-17

($b

)

Owner occupier new loans

Owner occupier refinances

Investment

37.1% 43.3% 52.1% 50.3% 53.9% 55.4% 52.9% 50.5%

17.1%18.7%

16.4% 22.7% 20.1% 20.1% 14.4% 16.1%

45.9% 38.0% 31.4% 26.9% 26.0% 27.8% 32.7% 33.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Owner occupier new loans Owner occupier refinances Investors

Investor and owner occupier refinancing

continues to slow while new lending to owner

occupiers has continued to lift

Value of housing finance commitments – monthly, national

Owner

occupier loans

(excl. refi)

$14.6b

Investor loans

$12.3b

Housing finance commitments by type and state, May 2017

Source: CoreLogic, ABS


0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%


Housing Business Other personal

Monthly data shows investor credit growth

slowing while owner occupier credit growth

is acceleratingAnnual change in total housing credit, owner occupiers vs investors

Proportion of total outstanding credit to ADIs

10% pa growth

Source: CoreLogic, RBA


30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Number of platform events v Number of owner occ housing finance commitments

CoreLogic Mortgage Index ABS Owner Occupier Housing Finance

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%


Monthly % change in platform events v Number of owner occ housing finance commitments

CoreLogic Mortgage Index ABS Owner Occupier Housing Finance

Mortgage demand eased in July however,

activity remains at quite high levels

CoreLogic’s Mortgage Index measures valuation activity across RP Data platforms, which more than 90% of ADI valuation requests nationally use, providing an almost real time indicator for how

much mortgage activity is taking place. For more information, contact RP Data via email: [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]


Capital city housing

market indicators

13


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


After dwelling values

surged more than 75%

higher over the past

five years, Sydney

dwelling values have

increased by 2.2% over

the three months to

July 2017 and are

12.4% higher over the

past year.

CoreLogic’s suite of hedonic indices are available across broad housing types and across geographical areas including statistical divisions, statistical subdivisions and postcodes nationally. For

further information an our hedonic method, please visit www.corelogic.com.aui/indices

Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney

Combined

capitals

Source: CoreLogic

http://www.corelogic.com.aui/indices


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Melbourne home values


the three months to

July 2017 and are 15.9%


year. Over the past

year, house values

have increased by

17.2% while unit values

have increased by

4.6%.


Melbourne

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Brisbane home values

fell by -0.7% over the

three months to July

2017 and are 2.2%


year. House values

have increased by

2.6% over the past year

while unit values have

fallen by -1.4%.


Brisbane

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Adelaide home values


the three months to

July 2017 and values

have increased by

2.1% over the past

year. Over the past 12

months, house values

have increased by

2.2% and unit values

are 0.6% higher.

17


Adelaide

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Perth home values fell

by -0.2% over the three

months to July 2017

and they are -2.1%

lower over the past

year. House values

across the city have

declined by -2.5% over

the past year while unit

values are 3.0% higher.


Perth

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Hobart home values

have fallen by

-1.4% over the three

months to July 2017

however, they are 6.5%


year. Hobart house

values have increased

by 7.0% over the past

year while unit values

are 2.4% higher.


Hobart

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Darwin home values

have fallen by -6.8%

over the three months

to July 2017 and they

are -2.1% lower over

the past year. House

values have fallen by

-3.6% over the past

year and unit values

have increased by

4.6%.


Darwin

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Canberra home values

have increased by

4.9% over the three

months to July 2017

and they are 12.9%


year. Over the pasty 12

months, house values

have increased by

13.2% and unit values

are 10.0% higher.


Canberra

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic



Macroeconomic and

demographic

indicators

22


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Dec-86 Dec-96 Dec-06 Dec-16

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Dec-86 Dec-96 Dec-06 Dec-16

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

Dec-86 Dec-91 Dec-96 Dec-01 Dec-06 Dec-11 Dec-16

1.5%

2.4%

1.4%

0.7%

0.6%

0.4%

0.4%

1.7%

1.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUST

Housing demand: Victoria’s rate of

population growth is going from strength-to-

strengthQuarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Jun-87 Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17

Houses Units

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%


Houses Townhouses Low-rise units High-rise units

8,000

13,000

18,000

23,000

Jun-87 Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17

Total dwelling approvals Total dwelling approvals (6 month rolling avg)

Housing supply: Dwelling approvals

rebounded in June but remain well down

on recent peaks

Monthly number of dwelling approvals, national

National dwelling approvals, houses v units Monthly % of total dwelling approvals



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jul-97 Jul-01 Jul-05 Jul-09 Jul-13 Jul-17

Consumer Sentiment (LHS)

Sales vols (Syd, Mel and Bris) (RHS)

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%


Consumer sentiment Capital city home values

60

80

100

120

140


Consumer Sentiment Index Six month rolling average

Consumer pessimism has slightly

outweighed optimism for each of the past

eight months

Consumer sentiment index

Annual change in consumer

sentiment v dwelling values

Consumer sentiment

v dwelling sales

Source: CoreLogic, Westpac-Melbourne Institute


62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0


%

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17

Full-time employment Part-time employment

Labour force: full-time employment growth

has accelerated over the past year

Annual change in employment, full time v part time

National unemployment rate National participation rate



0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Aug-93 Aug-97 Aug-01 Aug-05 Aug-09 Aug-13 Aug-17

Standard variable mortgage rates Cash rate 3 year fixed rate

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

May-97 May-01 May-05 May-09 May-13 May-17

Mortgage rates: while the cash rate

remains on hold, lenders continue to

adjust rates

Mortgage rates and cash rate over time

% of owner occupier loan commitments

on fixed rate

ASX cash rate futures implied yield curve

Source: CoreLogic, ABS, RBA, ASX


About Us

28

CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data

and analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across

Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity

and building cost information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the

company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over

500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and

other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.

With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics

and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance,

developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data,

analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and

manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across

Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au

CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding

housing market conditions at a granular geographic level. Granular data is often used for portfolio analysis and

benchmarking, risk assessments and understanding development feasibility and market sizing. It gives industry

professionals valuable modules which provide essential analytics and insights for decision making and strategy

formation within the residential property asset class. We can tailor reports to suit your business requirements.

Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at [email protected] or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au


Granular Data and Analytics

29

Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a

Franchise brand level across Australia. Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined

territory and State level. Easily locate growth opportunities and market hotspots, and view the performance of the established

offices in these new areas of interest.

Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and

segmented across houses, units and land. The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices,

median values, transaction volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as average selling time and vendor discounting rates.

CoreLogic Indices: The suite of CoreLogic Indices range from simple market measurements such as median prices through to

repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic Hedonic index has been specifically designed

to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators and industry as the most up to

date and accurate measurement of housing market performance.

Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the

most up to date and detailed view of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic Hedonic indices for

capital cities and ‘rest of state’ indices, the stratified hedonic index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates and

median prices.

Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with

high investor concentrations are typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of

the market. Through a series of rules and logic, CoreLogic has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property

nationally as either owner occupied, investor owned or government owned.

Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing market activity.

Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage market

trend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy.


Disclaimer

30

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not

warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by

subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this

publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2017. In consideration of the State permitting

use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or

suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to

any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

© 2017 Copyright in this information belongs to the South Australian Government and the South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for

the accuracy or completeness of the information or its suitability for purpose.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic is authorised

as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will

constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the Property Sales Data and any

person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors,

faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2017) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying,

photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed

to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the

Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

(a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

(b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au


It all starts with the

best data

www.corelogic.com.au

31

Housing Market and Economic Update - CoreLogic · 2017-08-03 · Housing Market and Economic Update...

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Transcript of Housing Market and Economic Update - CoreLogic · 2017-08-03 · Housing Market and Economic Update...