House Energy and Natural Resources Committee...House Energy and Natural Resources Committee January...
Transcript of House Energy and Natural Resources Committee...House Energy and Natural Resources Committee January...
House Energy and Natural
Resources Committee
January 10, 2019
Justin J KringstadGeological Engineer
Director
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
US Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Rail Destinations Market Share (Oct 2018)
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Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration
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Cushing $51.06
Brent $59.99WTI + $8.93
Crude Oil Prices – January 9, 2019
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Pricing Data: Bloomberg &
CME (LLS-Argus)Houston WTIWTI + $5.28
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North Dakota Oil Pricing
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Midwest (PADD 2) Refinery Crude Oil Consumption
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EIA Data
North Dakota Oil Pricing
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Bakken Drilling Economics
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www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Bakken Breakeven Price Range (20% IRR)
Bakken Breakeven Prices
$6 - $8 Million
Completed Wells Cost
Background Map: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community
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Bakken-Three Forks Drilling Inventory Study
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www.northdakotapipelines.com
Cumulative Remaining Wells – Peak Month Minimum BOPD
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30-Day Initial Production (BOPD)
Years Remaining* / Minimum Wellhead Oil Price*Assumes 1,200 Completions Per Year and $7MM Well Costs (20% After Tax IRR)
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Statewide Oil Performance
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~13% Improvement
Over 2017
North Dakota Oil Production Forecast Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPDAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should
not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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NDPA North Dakota Gas Production ForecastAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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NDPA North Dakota Production Forecast SummaryAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
Simple Terms
Blue – Lack of pipelines
Orange – Challenges on existing
infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold
Blue – % flared from zero sales wells
Orange – % flared from wells with at
least one mcf sold.
Oct. 2018 Data – Non-Confidential WellsStatewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Bakken and Three Forks Gas Performance
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Dunn McKenzie Mountrail Williams
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Upcoming or
Recent Plant
Expansion
WBI Transmission
Andeavor
Major Gas Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure
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Northern Border Pipeline
*Data Source: Northern Border IPS
• 42” Pipeline
• Carries Canadian (Port of Morgan) and Domestic Gas
• Receives Gas From ND Plants, WBI Transmission Interconnections, and WY Pipelines (Bison & Grasslands)
• Midcontinent Deliveries
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Simplified Example NB CalculationsConclusion: IF no other gas export options open and all other deliveries on other pipelines stay static, ND
gas production could increase 1.11-1.41 BCFD (from Oct-18) before Northern Border is 100% Bakken
production. BTU management becomes increasingly important for Bakken residue gas.
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Now What?
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Regional NGL Infrastructure
Kinder
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North Dakota Captured* NGL’s
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NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options
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ONEOK Elk Creek NGL Pipeline
Project Highlights
• 900 Miles - 20” Pipeline
• $1.4 Billion
• 240,000 BPD Capacity
• Expandable to 400,000
BPD
• End of 2019 Proposed
Completion
• Y-Grade Transportation
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North Dakota Pipeline Construction
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Sources: NDIC & PHMSA
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North Dakota Pipeline Construction
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Sources: NDIC & PHMSA
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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820
E-mail: [email protected]
Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov
www.northdakotapipelines.com
Contact Information
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