HOT OR NOT€¦ · $5. $10. $15. $20. $25. $30. $35. $40. $45. Value M USD. Five Year Old Fixed Age...
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Transcript of HOT OR NOT€¦ · $5. $10. $15. $20. $25. $30. $35. $40. $45. Value M USD. Five Year Old Fixed Age...
15 MINUTE MARKET RECAP:All the major markets, all the key data, what’s hot and what’s not a view on the next few years.
WHO WE ARE
WHAT WE DO
Value TradeMapSearch
OUR SERVICES
WHERE WE ARE
ESTABLISHED2010
7 OFFICESWorldwide
PEOPLE150+
WHO WE WORK WITH
SUBSCRIBERS400+ companies
USERS2,000+
42%
Banks& Funds
37%
Shipowners, Operators &
Traders
21%
ProfessionalServices
BULKERS
HOT….
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Valu
e M
USD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handy
PAST
$34.97
$20.76$19.23
$12.03
$39.60
$23.81
$21.25
$14.59
12 Month Change
#1 #2 #3 #4Handy Panamax Capesize Supramax+21% +15% +13% +11%
CAPESIZE VALUES
CAPESIZE VALUES
SOLD AT $20.5M IN 2016TO CAPITAL MARITIME & TRADING
CAPESIZE VALUES
SOLD AT $29.5M IN 2017TO NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
CAPESIZE ASSET VALUE CYCLE
Current Value $39.83Median Value $27.12
BULKER CYCLE
Capesize12.6%
Panamax5.7% Supramax
4.0%
Handy-11%-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
% C
hang
e
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
BULKER POSSIBLE FUTURE
30.0%
32.2%32.4%
47.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hang
e
5 Year Old Bulker Asset Value
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handy
CONTAINERS
HOT….
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Valu
e M
USD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
ULCV
Post Panamax
Handy
Feedermax
PAST
$85.44
$32.94
$15.74
$12.89
$87.97
$38.37
$18.82
$13.89
12 Month Change
#1 #2 #3 #4Handy Post Panamax Feedermax ULCV+20% +16% +8% +3%
HANDY CONTAINER VALUES
HANDY CONTAINER VALUES
SOLD AT $10.25M IN 2018TO TUFTON OCEANIC
HANDY CONTAINER ASSET VALUE CYCLE
Current Value $11.66Median Value $16.33
CONTAINER CYCLE
ULCV-11.8%
Post Panamax-37.4%
Handy-9.9%
Feedermax-21.3%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
% C
hang
e
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
CONTAINER POSSIBLE FUTURE
48.2%
122.8%
51.1%
45.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hang
e
5 Year Old Container Asset Values
Post Panamax
Panamax
Handy
Feedermax
TANKERS
NOT HOT…BUTWARMING UP..
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Valu
e M
USD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
LR1
MR2
PAST
$60.49
$42.99
$29.98$24.94
$66.47
$45.81
$27.88$26.24
12 Month Change
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5VLCC Suezmax MR2 Aframax LR1
+10% +7% +5% +1% -7%
$32.17 $32.38
VLCC VALUES
VLCC ASSET VALUE CYCLE
Current Value $48.79Median Value $56.90
TANKER CYCLE
VLCC-3.1%
Suezmax5.5%
Aframax-18.4%
LR1-16.0%
MR2-5.0%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
% C
hang
e
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
POSSIBLE FUTURE
42.5% 42.3%
46.3%
60.8%
22.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hang
e
5 Year Old Tanker Asset Value
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
LR1
MR
LNG AND LPG
SHOULD BE HOTTER?
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Valu
e M
USD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
Large LNG
Midsize LNG
VLGC LPG
Small Scale LNG
MGC LPG
Fully Press LPG
PAST
$146.1
$83.79
$40.68
$7.80
$152.3
$87.51
$31.10$9.49
$54.93 $60.49
12 Month Change
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
Fully Press VLGC LPG MGC LPG Small LPG Midsize LNG Large LNG
+22% +10% +7% +5% +4% +4%
$29.17$42.65
GAS CYCLE
Large LNG1.1%
Midsize LNG1.4%
VLGC LPG6.6%
Small Scale LNG11%
MGC LPG-13.6%
Fully Press LPG
1.2%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% C
hang
e
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
GAS POSSIBLE FUTURE
8.3%
52.3%
14.5%
26.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021
% C
hang
e
5 Year Old LPG Asset Values
VLGC
MGC
Fully Pressurised
SP FR LPG (Small)
OFFSHORE
SOME SECTORSLOOKING BETTER?
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Valu
e M
USD
Five Year Old Fixed Age Values
Drillship
Semi-Sub Rig
Jack Up Rig
PSV (Large)
AHTS (Large)
PAST
$100.3$85.23
$16.28$5.86
$107.3$108.2
$15.09$6.01
12 Month Change
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5Jack Up Drillship Semi-Sub AHTS PSV
+28% +7% +% +3% -7%
$84.59 $91.23
AHTS VALUES
AHTS VALUES
SOLD AT $5.8M IN 2017TO EASTERN NAVIGATION
AHTS ASSET VALUE CYCLE
Current Value $7.11Median Value $28.33
OFFSHORE CYCLE
Drillship-72.5%
Semi-Sub Rig-70.7%
Jack Up Rig-15.5%
PSV (Large)-56.8%
AHTS (Large)-73.7%-85%
-75%
-65%
-55%
-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
% C
hang
e
Current Market Value vs Historical Mean
SUMMARY
GOING UP
Bulkers• China Demand (One Belt One Road?)
• Small orderbook
Containers• China Trade
• The cycle
GOING SLOW
Tankers• Crude demand issues?
• Can’t stop ordering
• But what goes down…
Gas• Too many ships
• But…good demand story
HUNGOVER
HUNGOVER - OFFSHORE
BETTER INFORMATION
BETTER DECISIONS
HELPS YOUMAKE
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