HOT, FLAT and HOT, FLAT and CROWDEDCROWDED

Thomas L. FriedmanThomas L. Friedman

Presented by Madhava Presented by Madhava MadireddyMadireddy

Presentation of contentsPresentation of contents Diagnosis of unique energy, climate Diagnosis of unique energy, climate

and biodiversity challengesand biodiversity challenges How we can meet these challengesHow we can meet these challenges

Impact of 9/11Impact of 9/11 More security ….More security …. Exporting fears Exporting fears (not hopes)(not hopes) Borrowing (Consumption) our way to Borrowing (Consumption) our way to

prosperityprosperity

Sputnik led to InternetSputnik led to Internet 9/11 disconnected US from the rest9/11 disconnected US from the rest

Trends in USTrends in US Gasoline prices were kept down in USGasoline prices were kept down in US Bigger cars were demandedBigger cars were demanded

European effortsEuropean efforts European Govts imposed Gasoline European Govts imposed Gasoline

taxestaxes Taxes on engine sizeTaxes on engine size Some nations DenmarkSome nations Denmark imposed CO2 tax. imposed CO2 tax. So, Europeans demandSo, Europeans demand small carssmall cars

                      

The American Way of LifeThe American Way of Life Ability to spend more Ability to spend more

energy perceived as energy perceived as strengthstrength

George Bush after George Bush after 9/11 reduced taxes on 9/11 reduced taxes on gasoline. gasoline.

Looked to import oil at Looked to import oil at discount pricesdiscount prices

Overlooking the need Overlooking the need of the hour. of the hour. Renewable energyRenewable energy

WHAT ARE THE WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES? CONSEQUENCES?

Five key problems addressedFive key problems addressed Growing demand for energy supplies Growing demand for energy supplies

and natural resourcesand natural resources Massive transfer of wealth to oil rich Massive transfer of wealth to oil rich

nations.nations. Disruptive climate changeDisruptive climate change Energy povertyEnergy poverty Loss of biodiversityLoss of biodiversity

Hot, Flat and Hot, Flat and CrowdedCrowded Population will increase by 2.5 billion Population will increase by 2.5 billion

in next 40 years. in next 40 years. Increase of mega citiesIncrease of mega cities City dwellers 5 billion by 2030. City dwellers 5 billion by 2030. Growth of population occurs Growth of population occurs in Afghan, Nigeria and Congoin Afghan, Nigeria and Congo … ….which cant sustain.which cant sustain Basic needs shared…violence resultsBasic needs shared…violence results

Hot, Hot, FlatFlat and Crowded and Crowded Emergence of InternetEmergence of Internet Ability to transfer work electronicallyAbility to transfer work electronically Globalization…Market place of buyers and Globalization…Market place of buyers and

sellers across different nationssellers across different nations Removed poverty…increase income.Removed poverty…increase income. BUT>>>Demand for home, appliances, BUT>>>Demand for home, appliances,

microwaves, toasters, etc increase microwaves, toasters, etc increase ………….green house gases increased.………….green house gases increased.

More Competition for energy, minerals, More Competition for energy, minerals, water and forest productswater and forest products

HotHot, Flat and Crowded , Flat and Crowded Types of Fuels????Types of Fuels????

Fuels from hellFuels from hell (Coal, oil and Natural Gas)…emit CO2(Coal, oil and Natural Gas)…emit CO2 Fuels from heavenFuels from heaven (Wind, Hydroelectric, tidal, solar and (Wind, Hydroelectric, tidal, solar and

biomass)….no harmful emissionsbiomass)….no harmful emissions

HotHot, Flat and Crowded, Flat and Crowded Warming trend of our planet earthWarming trend of our planet earth Human activity associated with large Human activity associated with large

scale manufacturing. Since Industrial scale manufacturing. Since Industrial RevolutionRevolution

Energy needed …Light, heat, Mechanical Energy needed …Light, heat, Mechanical and electrical. One can be created from and electrical. One can be created from other. But what are we doing?other. But what are we doing?

We use fossils to create all these even We use fossils to create all these even though light and heat are free. though light and heat are free.

What is Greenhouse Effect?What is Greenhouse Effect?

Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect

Pound of COPound of CO22 goes into air for every goes into air for every mile. mile.

……Other than COOther than CO22, any other gases?, any other gases? Methane more harmful (X 21) than Methane more harmful (X 21) than

COCO22

Burning of fossil fuels, oil and coal.Burning of fossil fuels, oil and coal. DeforestationDeforestation Cattle grazing and industrializationCattle grazing and industrialization

Global WarmingGlobal Warming Earth already warmed 0.8 degrees Earth already warmed 0.8 degrees

Celsius since 1750. Celsius since 1750. Ice ball earth and Hot furnace earth Ice ball earth and Hot furnace earth

are only 6 degree Celsius apart. are only 6 degree Celsius apart. The ten hottest years of earth since The ten hottest years of earth since

1860 are…..1860 are….. All between 1995 and 2005. All between 1995 and 2005.

Code GreenCode Green Not the way of generating electric powerNot the way of generating electric power ---Is the way of generating national power---Is the way of generating national power

Reduce addictions to oilReduce addictions to oil Build more knowledge intensive green-Build more knowledge intensive green-

collar technology jobscollar technology jobs Promote innovation (green) industries to Promote innovation (green) industries to

make us more energy efficient. make us more energy efficient.

Gasoline addictionGasoline addiction In 2007, India, China andIn 2007, India, China and Middle East alone spent $ 50 BMiddle East alone spent $ 50 B Gasoline for vehicles and cookingGasoline for vehicles and cooking Heating oil and electricity for Heating oil and electricity for

homes and factorieshomes and factories Importing energy at global prices Importing energy at global prices

and selling to nation at and selling to nation at discounts…..Why?discounts…..Why?

Election/Political ReasonsElection/Political Reasons

Energy DemandEnergy Demand Chinese stealing manholesChinese stealing manholes Walmart going Green…..not enough Walmart going Green…..not enough

to sustain the developmentto sustain the development Man needs 2000-3000 Kcal of Man needs 2000-3000 Kcal of

energy/dayenergy/day Average American consumes enough Average American consumes enough

energy of 100 people. energy of 100 people.

Climate ChangeClimate Change Increasing amount of COIncreasing amount of CO22 released. released. IPCC predicts abrupt or irreversible IPCC predicts abrupt or irreversible

effects on air, oceans, glaciers, land and effects on air, oceans, glaciers, land and species.species.

Summer ice disappeared in Greenland Summer ice disappeared in Greenland and melting of the Arcticand melting of the Arctic

Katrina gathered force on its way to Katrina gathered force on its way to New Orleans where the surface waters New Orleans where the surface waters are 2 degrees warmer.are 2 degrees warmer.

Climate Change Climate Change The natural climate systemThe natural climate system

Earth’s distance from sun changes so Earth’s distance from sun changes so slightly ….10,000 yearsslightly ….10,000 years

Tilt of the earth ….gives us variation Tilt of the earth ….gives us variation in intensity of radiation and in intensity of radiation and seasons….But tilt changes every seasons….But tilt changes every 40,000 years 40,000 years

Change in the plane of earth’s orbit…Change in the plane of earth’s orbit…21,000 years21,000 years

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeThe human effectThe human effect

Some deny the human effect..(Example)Some deny the human effect..(Example) 6 degree change in global temperature 6 degree change in global temperature

between warm and glacial periods?between warm and glacial periods? Increase of COIncrease of CO22 in atmosphere from 280 in atmosphere from 280

ppm to 384 ppm since Industrial ppm to 384 ppm since Industrial Revolution? Revolution?

By 2050, IPCC predicts 550 ppm COBy 2050, IPCC predicts 550 ppm CO22 and 3 and 3 degree rise in average Temp. degree rise in average Temp.

More heat waves (in Europe killing 35,000?)More heat waves (in Europe killing 35,000?)

Energy PovertyEnergy Poverty Blackouts in Africa due to power Blackouts in Africa due to power

demand …..increased demand for demand …..increased demand for generatorsgenerators

Indoor air pollution from cooking fires Indoor air pollution from cooking fires and deaths for mothers and kids.and deaths for mothers and kids.

Women in rural areas…walk to get Women in rural areas…walk to get waterwater

……their children drop out of school to their children drop out of school to help.help.

Energy Poverty + Energy Poverty + HotHot World World Who is causing? Who is sufferingWho is causing? Who is suffering Prolonged droughts Prolonged droughts Heavy rainfalls---(Dry soils)Heavy rainfalls---(Dry soils)

Low lying costal areas need migrationLow lying costal areas need migration Higher lying areas subject to warming Higher lying areas subject to warming

and hence insect borne diseases.and hence insect borne diseases.

Energy Poverty + Energy Poverty + FlatFlat world world No Energy or Electricity means---You No Energy or Electricity means---You

are DISCONNECTED. are DISCONNECTED.

Transition NEEDEDTransition NEEDED No phones----No phones---- Cell phones Cell phones No power grid--No power grid-- renewable energy renewable energy

Energy Poverty + Crowded WorldEnergy Poverty + Crowded World

Cities overly crowded in developing Cities overly crowded in developing countries.countries.

No internet, investment or energy in No internet, investment or energy in villagesvillages

Need for electricity to the villages Need for electricity to the villages IT and ET need to work together.IT and ET need to work together.

Biodiversity LossBiodiversity Loss Half of the temporal forests are goneHalf of the temporal forests are gone Species disappear 1000 times faster.Species disappear 1000 times faster.

If a species don’t know how to live in If a species don’t know how to live in coherence with the Mother Nature, that coherence with the Mother Nature, that will be wiped out. will be wiped out.

Hence, every time you look into the Hence, every time you look into the mirror, you are looking at an mirror, you are looking at an endangered species.endangered species.

Code GreenCode Green Cost of Ownership = Short term + Long Cost of Ownership = Short term + Long

term + Hidden + Financial + Seen + term + Hidden + Financial + Seen + Social + Political + ……..Social + Political + ……..

Environmental ( How to include this )Environmental ( How to include this ) Clean Air Technology Revolution Clean Air Technology Revolution

significant as Industrial Revolution (Jobs)significant as Industrial Revolution (Jobs) Reduce Per-capital consumption Reduce Per-capital consumption Who has to lead this revolution? Who has to lead this revolution?

Code Green- ActionCode Green- Action Scientific breakthrough—CommercializingScientific breakthrough—Commercializing No hydrogen fuel car or fuel cell in marketNo hydrogen fuel car or fuel cell in market What are our options?What are our options? Photovoltaic?—clean, cheaper, not Photovoltaic?—clean, cheaper, not

abundant until we have battery to storeabundant until we have battery to store Wind Power….abundance depend on windWind Power….abundance depend on wind Solar Thermal?….Sun rays heat a fluid that Solar Thermal?….Sun rays heat a fluid that

drive a generator. No need of battery.drive a generator. No need of battery. Clean, abundant but NOT cheap.Clean, abundant but NOT cheap.

Code Green- PlanCode Green- Plan End to dirty fuels systemEnd to dirty fuels system Stop exploitation of other natural Stop exploitation of other natural

resources (water, land, rivers, forests, resources (water, land, rivers, forests, ocean fisheries)ocean fisheries)

Replacing the old system completely….. Replacing the old system completely….. Eg. Toyota Prius…Regenerative BrakingEg. Toyota Prius…Regenerative Braking

Generate cheap, better & clean Generate cheap, better & clean electrons (laptops, cell phones, now electrons (laptops, cell phones, now energy)energy)

Other Options…for Green?Other Options…for Green? Power from diesel generators (Cheap Power from diesel generators (Cheap

and abundant, but Not Clean) and abundant, but Not Clean) Burning coal but capturing COBurning coal but capturing CO22? Not ? Not

cheap. Why?cheap. Why? Nuclear Power? Not cheap, not Nuclear Power? Not cheap, not

abundant.abundant. Shell predicts Ren.Energy by 2030-- 30%Shell predicts Ren.Energy by 2030-- 30% MORE INNOVATIONS NEEDED. MORE INNOVATIONS NEEDED.

Other Options….Other Options…. Improve Energy EfficiencyImprove Energy Efficiency Ethics of conservation….Creating a Ethics of conservation….Creating a

responsibility towards a natural worldresponsibility towards a natural world Fundamental changes in life styleFundamental changes in life style World Economy need to stop World Economy need to stop

growing?growing? MAY BE…We don’t know yet?MAY BE…We don’t know yet?

Consume more + Conserve moreConsume more + Conserve more Ration ElectricityRation Electricity Ban big cars and big enginesBan big cars and big engines Ban taxis that are not hybridsBan taxis that are not hybrids Illegal to waste electricity…..OFFENSEIllegal to waste electricity…..OFFENSE I-pods and laptops made of recyclable I-pods and laptops made of recyclable

materials only.materials only. Big homes are okay….but they should be Big homes are okay….but they should be

run on renewable energy only. run on renewable energy only. Mass Transit in big cities and rest of the Mass Transit in big cities and rest of the

worldworld Biking lanes.Biking lanes.

How can we save the earth?How can we save the earth? Increase fuel efficiency of vehiclesIncrease fuel efficiency of vehicles Install carbon capture and Install carbon capture and

Sequestration in 800 coal plantsSequestration in 800 coal plants Set up more wind mills and solar power Set up more wind mills and solar power

plants to replace half of coal plants. plants to replace half of coal plants. Halt the cutting and burning of treesHalt the cutting and burning of trees Cut electricity in homes, offices and Cut electricity in homes, offices and

stores by 25%. E.g. Fluorescent lampsstores by 25%. E.g. Fluorescent lamps

Energy Internet: IT meets ETEnergy Internet: IT meets ET Objective: Create cheap, abundant and Objective: Create cheap, abundant and

clean electrons. clean electrons. Current power distribution…Pricing (Extra Current power distribution…Pricing (Extra

coal plants)coal plants) Charges vary on types of fuelsCharges vary on types of fuels Smart Black Box (SBB) options Smart Black Box (SBB) options Duke Energy---Energy Internet with Duke Energy---Energy Internet with

progressive utility (Carolinas)progressive utility (Carolinas) Hybrid Electric car -Powered during nightHybrid Electric car -Powered during night Operate efficiently from homeOperate efficiently from home

Energy Internet: IT meets ETEnergy Internet: IT meets ET Programming energy usageProgramming energy usage Day trading of energy Day trading of energy On/Off electricity semiconductorsOn/Off electricity semiconductors Solar power from your panel cutting Solar power from your panel cutting

out your electricity billout your electricity bill Electricity providers can share the Electricity providers can share the

savingssavings by selling carbon credits. by selling carbon credits.

1. Creating Demand 1. Creating Demand 2. Reduce Addictions2. Reduce Addictions

Attract investment into innovationAttract investment into innovation More wind and solar plants set upMore wind and solar plants set up Proper tariffs on imported dirty oils and on Proper tariffs on imported dirty oils and on

Chinese exports made by dirty oilsChinese exports made by dirty oils Subsidize EthanolSubsidize Ethanol

Oil Addictions…Any ad of oil on TV?Oil Addictions…Any ad of oil on TV? Eliminate traditional oil. Eliminate traditional oil. NO DEAL WITH GASOLINE…will be $ 6 by NO DEAL WITH GASOLINE…will be $ 6 by

nownow

InvestmentsInvestments Photovoltaic modules (15%,.BE by Photovoltaic modules (15%,.BE by

2025)2025) Assure the technology is real and Assure the technology is real and

competitive compared to competitive compared to premiumpremium fuels.fuels.

Cap and TradeCap and Trade Introduce carbon tax and Gasoline Introduce carbon tax and Gasoline

tax. Is it enough?tax. Is it enough? Cap on COCap on CO22 for each nation by 2050 for each nation by 2050 Deter the rich from excess usageDeter the rich from excess usage

Technology at WorkTechnology at Work GE Transportation- Energy Efficiency GE Transportation- Energy Efficiency

Innovation----Only driven by technologyInnovation----Only driven by technology To meet USEPA Tier-II standards, To meet USEPA Tier-II standards,

redoing the whole engine…..redoing the whole engine…..Fuel eff Fuel eff Tradeoff EmisTradeoff Emis

Technology solutions to reduce Carbon Technology solutions to reduce Carbon emissions, NOx and increase efficiency.emissions, NOx and increase efficiency.

Pollution reduction….Dual use? Pollution reduction….Dual use? (Porter’s Theory) (Porter’s Theory)

Government Intervention NeededGovernment Intervention Needed

Energy Efficiency needed after 2040.Energy Efficiency needed after 2040. Clear price signals and clear regulationsClear price signals and clear regulations Utility companies should be encouraged Utility companies should be encouraged

for efficiency. Reward them for efficiencyfor efficiency. Reward them for efficiency How IT competition created innovation …How IT competition created innovation …

Similarly ET should also innovate.Similarly ET should also innovate. Let us follow Japan in Gas Taxing policyLet us follow Japan in Gas Taxing policy Mitsubishi (Japanese) Industries…..efficient Mitsubishi (Japanese) Industries…..efficient

turbines and machinery.turbines and machinery.

China….should lead?China….should lead? America grew and then cleaned up. America grew and then cleaned up. Can China do the same?Can China do the same? Population---20%, biggest carbon Population---20%, biggest carbon

emitteremitter Second largest importer of oil after US.Second largest importer of oil after US. World has to boycott dirty Chinese World has to boycott dirty Chinese

goods?goods? Conspiracy against China?Conspiracy against China?

Really a conspiracy?Really a conspiracy? 1/3 of China faces Acid rain1/3 of China faces Acid rain Half the water in 7 largest rivers is uselessHalf the water in 7 largest rivers is useless 8 to 15 % of GDP is going down8 to 15 % of GDP is going down

1998-2000: GDP X 4…Energy usage X 21998-2000: GDP X 4…Energy usage X 2 Post 2001: Energy usage faster by40%Post 2001: Energy usage faster by40% Burn the cheapest fuel first????Burn the cheapest fuel first????

China’s Growth—China’s Growth—American Challenge?American Challenge?

Wind Energy doubled from 2005-Wind Energy doubled from 2005-20072007

SunTech –Top 5 solar manufacturersSunTech –Top 5 solar manufacturers

America’s Challenge: America’s Challenge: Cold War….Green War?Cold War….Green War?

Let us BEGINLet us BEGIN

Questions?Questions?