Hosted by: Colorado Department of Education

Unified Improvement Planning:

Analyzing DataVersion 2.0

Hosted by: Colorado Department of EducationProvided by : Center for Transforming Learning and

Teaching

Introductions

Center for Transforming Learning and Teaching

Julie Oxenford-O’BrianMary Beth Romke

Colorado Department of Education

Lindsey DulinJudy HuddlestonChristina LarsonErin LoftenLisa MedlerAlyssa Pearson

Session Purpose

Ensure school planning teams are prepared to identify notable trends and

prioritize performance challenges as part of unified improvement plan data narrative.

Introductions

Share:– Name, Job Title, School/District

– Your role in facilitating unified improvement planning

– Your most important outcome for this session

Materials

The materials used during this session were developed in partnership with the Center for Transforming Learning and Teaching located in the School of Education and Human Development at the University of Colorado Denver.

Norms

The standards of behavior by which we

agree to operate while we are

engaged in learning together.

Session Outcomes• Explain how unified improvement planning (UIP) will

improve student learning and system effectiveness.

• Identify the data analysis process included in UIP and how the results will be captured in Data Narrative.

• Determine what data reports/views will be used.

• Interpret required performance metrics.

• Review current school or district performance.

• Describe notable trends (over at least 3 years).

• Determine which performance challenges will focus school/district improvement activity for the coming year.

• Apply the UIP Quality Criteria to evaluate trend statements and priority performance challenges.

• Document the process used to identify trends and prioritize performance challenges for the Data Narrative.

• Develop a plan for completing data analysis for the school or district UIP.

Engage in hands-on learning activities and dialogue with colleagues.

Access additional resources.

Complete follow-up activities.

AgendaUIP & Data Narrative Overview

Review Current

Performance

Identify Notable Trends

Prioritize Performanc

e Challenges

Plan Data

Analysis

Interpret Performance

Metrics

Purposes of Unified Improvement Planning

• Provide a framework for performance management.

• Support school and district use of performance data to improve system effectiveness and student learning.

• Shift from planning as an event to continuous improvement.

• Meet state and federal accountability requirements.

• Give external stakeholders a way to learn about how schools and districts are making improvements.

Theory of Action: Continuous Improvement

FOCUSMonitor Progress at least quarterly

Performance Indicators

Planning TerminologyConsider the Unified Improvement Planning Terminology (in the Unified Improvement Planning Handbook, Appendix A)

Work in a triad to answer the following questions:

1.What is the relationship between performance indicators, measures, metrics, expectations and targets?

2.What is the difference between a measure and a metric?

Section III: Data Narrative

Section IV:Target Setting

Ongoing:Progress Monitoring

Unified Improvement Planning Processes

Describe Notable Trends

Prioritize Performance Challenges

Identify Root

Causes

Set Performance

Targets

Identify Interim

Measures

Identify Major Improvement

Strategies

Identify Implementation

Benchmarks

Gather and Organize

Data

Review Performance

Summary

Preparing to Plan Section IV:

Action Planning

Today

Colorado Unified Planning TemplateMajor Sections:

I. Summary Information about the school or District

II. Improvement Plan Information

III.Narrative on Data Analysis and Root Cause Identification

IV.Action Plan(s)

Section I Section II Section III Section IV

Summary Information about the School/DistrictStudent Performance Measures for State and Federal AccountabilityAccountability Status and Requirements for Improvement Plan

Additional Information about the School/ District

Progress Monitoring of Prior Year’s Targets

Data WorksheetNotable TrendsPriority Performance ChallengesRoot Causes

School Target Setting FormPriority Performance ChallengesTargetsInterim MeasuresMajor Improvement Strategies

Improvement Plan Information

Data NarrativeDescription of School/District and Process for Data AnalysisReview Current PerformanceTrend AnalysisPriority Performance ChallengesRoot Causes

Action Planning FormMajor Improvement StrategiesResearch SupportingAssociated Root CausesAction StepsTimelineKey PeopleResourcesImplementation BenchmarksProgress

Updates to UIP Data Analysis

• Clarification regarding the role of the Data Narrative

• Two additional metrics on the SPF/DPF and UIP Template

• Removal of AYP and Educator Qualification from UIP Template

• Additional reports required for UIP

Planning and Accountability Timeline• When should local teams engage in developing or

revising unified improvement plans?

• Review the Planning Timeline (UIP Handbook, p. 38) and Sample Planning Calendar for Developing/Revising UIP (Toolkit, p. 5)

• Consider:

• How do these calendars compare to the timeline in which your schools engaged in planning for the 2011-12 school year?

• Will you submit your UIP for one of the early posting dates?

The Role of the Data Narrative• Turn to: Narrative on Data Analysis and

Root Cause Identification (UIP Handbook, p. 11)

• Work with a partner to explain:– What is the role of the Data Narrative?

– Why were two additional worksheets included in this section of the UIP template?

Capturing Notes Today

• Capture notes for the UIP Data Narrative in the Data Narrative Outline.

• Plan for completing the Data Narrative using the Planning Data Analysis note catcher.

• Bookmark the Data Narrative Outline (Toolkit, p. 11) and the Planning Data Analysis (Toolkit, p. 79).

AgendaUIP

Processes Overview

Review Current

Performance



e Challenges

Plan Data

Analysis


Metrics

Data are like ___________ because ______________.

Accountability Measures and Metrics

Consider the table of performance indicators, measures, metrics and expectations (UIP Handbook, p. 8-11).

•What measures are required?

•What metrics are required?

•What are minimum state and federal expectations for each metric?

Metrics included in the SPF• Take out your SPF/DPF and turn to the detailed

reporting by performance indicator (p. 2)

• Identify which metrics are included for each performance indicator:– Academic Achievement– Academic Growth– Academic Growth Gaps– Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness (secondary

only)

Indicators and Metrics

Indicator MetricsAcademic Achievement % Proficient/Advanced

School’s Percentile

Academic Growth Median Growth PercentileMedian Adequate Growth Percentile

Academic Growth Gaps Subgroup Median Growth PercentileSubgroup Median Adequate Growth Percentile

Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness

Graduate RateDisaggregated Graduation RateDropout RateColorado ACT Composite Score

Indicate your current level of comfort explaining each of the following metrics to a colleague (on a scale of 1 to 5).

Reviewing SPF and Required UIP Metrics

• Growth:– Median Growth Percentiles– Median Adequate Growth Percentiles (catch-

up and keep-up growth)– Growth Gaps– Growth in English Language Proficiency

(CELApro growth)• Disaggregated Graduation Rates

Percentage vs. Percentile

PercentilesPercentiles

• Range from 1 - 99

• Indicate the standing of a student’s score relative to the norm group (i.e. how a particular student compares with all others who took the same test).

Growth Percentiles• Range from 1-99

• Indicate the standing of a student’s progress to their academic peers, or students with a similar score history (i.e. how his/her recent change in scores compares to the change in scores of other’s who started at the same level).

Low 3rd grade score (295)

Medium 3rd grade score (540) High 3rd grade score (671)

563 575 581 458 699

363 575 481 358 599

663 575 681 558 749

4th Grade Students



563 575 581 458 699

363 575 481 358 599

663 575 681 558 749



11 31 50 58 86

35 39 61 82 95

19 24 52 64 99458 563 575 581 699

358 363 481 575 599

558 575 663 681 749

Student Growth Percentiles

Student Growth Percentiles• Require 2 consecutive years of state assessment

results.

• Calculated for individual students (reading, writing, math, English proficiency).

• Compare individual student’s change in performance to that of his/her academic peers (statewide).

• Are based on all of the sequential years for which prior state assessment results are available.

• Provide a normative basis for asking about how much growth a student could make.

1131 50 58

86

35

3961 82 95

19 24

52

64

99

458563 575 581

699

358

363481 575 599

558 575

663

681

749

Mountain School

Valley School

31

563

50

575

58

58111

458

64

681

52

663

19

558

35

358

82

575

61

481

39

363

24

575

99

749

86

699

95

599

Mountain School

Valley School

31

563

50

575

58

58111

458

64

681

52

663

19

558

35

358

82

575

61

481

39

363

24

575

99

749

86

699

95

599

Mountain School

Valley School

33

82

Median Growth Percentile

Median Growth Percentile• Aggregate measure of the growth of a

group of students: – District/ School

– Grade-Level

– Disaggregated Group (ELL, IEP, FRL, Minority)

• Middle (median) growth percentile for the students in the group.

• “Typical” student growth for the group.

Adequate Growth (CSAP/TCAP)

• What is adequate growth?

• Based on catch-up and keep-up growth

• So. . . a quick refresher on catch-up and keep-up growth.

• See Adequate Growth Basics (Toolkit, p. 19)

Catch-Up GrowthTo be eligible to make catch-up growth:

• The student scores below proficient (unsatisfactory or partially proficient) in the previous year.

To make catch-up growth:

• The student demonstrates growth adequate to reach proficient performance within the next three years or by 10th grade, whichever comes first.

Calculating Catch-Up Growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

95

Proficient

Not Proficient

7th grade 8th grade 9th grade 10th grade6th grade

55

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


85

85

Proficient



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


8080

80

Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


7676

7676

Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

95

Not Proficient


85

8580

80

80

7676

7676

76 is the minimum-this student’s adequate growth percentile.

Proficient

Adequate Growth Percentile for Catch Up

• For students eligible to make catch-up growth (those who scored unsatisfactory or partially proficient in the previous year).

• Adequate Growth Percentile = the minimum growth percentile he/she would have needed to make catch-up growth.


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


7676

7676

Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


7676

7676

5555

55

55

55th percentile growth will not be enough for this student to catch up – she did not make catch-up growth.

Proficient

Keep-Up GrowthTo be eligible to make keep-up growth:

• The student scores at the proficient or advanced level in the previous year.

To make keep-up growth:

• The student demonstrates growth adequate to maintain proficiency for the next three years or until 10th grade, whichever comes first.

Calculating Keep-Up Growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

12

Not Proficient


79 Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


25

25

Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


3838

38Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


50

5050

50Proficient

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

12

Not Proficient


25

25 3838

38

50

5050

50

50 is the maximum -this student’s adequate growth percentile

Proficient


Adequate Growth for Keep-Up

• For students eligible to make keep-up growth (those who scored proficient or advanced in the previous year).

• Adequate Growth Percentile = the maximum of the growth percentiles needed for each of the next three years (or until 10th grade) he/she needed to score at least proficient.


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


50

5050

50Proficient


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Not Proficient


50

5050

50

79 7979

79

Proficient79th percentile growth will be enough for this student to keep up – he made keep-up growth.

Calculating Median Adequate Growth Percentiles for CSAP/TCAP

AGP Sorted AGPs Median AGP4578993211915567431077

Median Adequate Growth for this school is 55

Search for the middle value…

Adequate growth percentiles for all catch-up and keep-up students

Move-Up Growth

To be eligible to make move-up growth:

• The student scores at the proficient level in the previous year.

To make move-up growth:

• The student demonstrates enough growth to move up to advanced within the next three years or by 10th grade; whichever comes first.

Catch-up ● Keep-up ● Move-up

• Check your understanding. . .– Which students could make catch-up growth?

– Which students could make keep-up growth?

– Which students could make move-up growth?

• Draw a Venn diagram to show if/how these groups overlap.


Eligible to make Keep-Up GrowthEligible to make

Catch-Up Growth

Eligible to make Move-Up Growth

Percent Making Catch-Up Growth• Denominator: The number of students who scored below

proficient (unsatisfactory or partially proficient) in the previous year (i.e. students eligible for catch-up growth).

• Numerator: The number of students who made catch-up growth (i.e. demonstrated enough growth to reach proficient performance within the next three years or by 10th grade, whichever comes first).

• Performance is improving if:– The denominator is getting smaller (approaching zero)– The numerator is increasing – The percent is increasing (approaching 100)

Percent Making Keep-Up Growth• Denominator: The number of students who scored proficient

or advanced in the previous year (i.e. students eligible to make keep-up growth).

• Numerator: The number of students who made keep-up growth (i.e. demonstrated enough growth to maintain proficiency for the next three years or until 10th grade, whichever comes first).

• Performance is improving if:– The numerator is increasing– The percent is increasing (approaching 100)

Percent Making Move-Up Growth• Denominator: The number of students who scored proficient

in the previous year (i.e. students eligible to make move-up growth).

• Numerator: The number of students who made move-up growth (i.e. demonstrated enough growth to move up to advanced within the next three years or by 10th grade, whichever comes first).

• Performance is improving if:– The numerator is increasing.– The percent is increaseing (approaching 100)


Does the sum of these percentages add up to 100?

•The percent of students making catch-up growth

•The percent of students making keep-up growth

•The percent of students making move-up growth

Catch-Up in Different Contexts• School or District Growth Summary Reports:

– The percent of students in the school/district making catch-up growth

– Number of students making catch-up growth/the number of students eligible to make catch-up growth

• SPF or DPF– For students eligible to make catch-up growth– Median Growth Percentile– Median Adequate Growth Percentile

Comparing SGP & CUKUMU

• Student Growth Percentiles– Normative– Compare student progress to that of their

academic peers• Adequate growth/Catch-up, Keep-up, Move-up

– Growth to standard– Compare student growth to how much growth they

need to reach or stay proficient

Academic Growth Gaps• Consider the definition of “Academic Growth

Gaps” in the Planning Terminology (UIP Handbook p. 28)

• Talk with a partner:– Is this definition consistent with the interpretation of

“growth gaps” used in your district?

– If not, how is it different?

– How could trends in growth gaps be described using this definition? What data is needed?

Adequate Growth Percentiles Over Time• Used in conjunction with median growth

percentiles to describe growth gap trends.

• Accessed through: – www.schoolview.org, data lab (see, Accessing

Median Adequate Growth Percentiles over Time)– SPF reports over time

• How will you access adequate growth percentiles over time for disaggregated groups? [Planning Data Analysis note catcher]

http://www.schoolview.org/

New Measures and Metrics• Indicator: Student Academic Growth

– Sub-Indicator: English Language Proficiency

– Measure: CELApro

– Metrics: Median Student Growth Percentile, Median Adequate Growth Percentile (calculated differently)

• Indicator: Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness– Sub-Indicator: Graduation Rate

– Measure/Metrics: Disaggregated 4-,5-,6-,7-year graduation rates

– Disaggregated groups: Minority, FRL, ELL, IEP

Measuring Growth of English Language Development

• Uses CELApro as the measure (instead of TCAP/CSAP)

• Applies the Colorado Growth Model methodology to CELApro results

• Reported only for schools/districts with 20 or more ELLs

• Measures how much normative growth a student has made towards attaining English proficiency (MGP)

• Measures how much growth would be adequate to attain the desired level of English language proficiency within a given timeframe (AGP)

Disaggregated Graduation RatesConsider the definition of Graduation Rate in the Planning Terminology (UIP Handbook, Appendix A, p. 28) and the SPF Scoring Guides and Reference Data (Toolkit, p. 27)

– How are 4,5,6,7 year graduation rates calculated?

– Which disaggregated groups are included in the SPF/DPF disaggregated graduation rates?

– What disaggregated graduation rate meets expectations?

Disaggregated Graduation Rates

4-year 5- year 6- year 7-year

Number of students graduating in 4 years

+ number of students from the base year who graduated early

4-year rate + number of students graduating in 5 years



Number of students in 9th grade in the base year+ Transfers in

- Transfers out

Disaggregated Achievement Data

Accessing Disaggregated Achievement Data

• Most districts already use this data and access it through a local data tool.

• Also available through: www.schoolview.org, Data Center

• Job-aide: Accessing Disaggregated Achievement Data (UIP Data Analysis Toolkit, p.)

http://www.schoolview.org/

Small N?• What if summary reports have little or no data?• CDE does not report data for small N to protect

student privacy.• Options?

– Student-Level Data– Summary statistics for smaller N

• Accessed through– District data reporting tool– Downloading student-level records from CEDAR– The Colorado Growth Model web-based application

(student-level)

Accessing Data Reports/Views

• Turn to the Planning for Data Analysis note catcher.

• Make notes about how you will access required state metrics to finalize your data analysis.

• Include CELApro Growth if appropriate.

• Make notes about how you will access local performance data.

AgendaUIP

Processes Overview

Review Current

Performance



e Challenges

Plan Data

Analysis


Metrics

Reviewing Current Performance1. Use the SPF to identify and describe:

– School or District accountability status

– Indicators (and sub-indicators) where performance did not at least meet state/federal expectations

– Magnitude of the over-all school/district performance challenge

2. Describe how current performance compares to the prior year’s plan (using the Progress Monitoring of Prior Year’s Performance Targets Worksheet)

Review SPF ReportCapture your answers to the following questions in the Data Narrative Outline:

1. What was the school’s plan type assignment?

2. In which indicator areas did school performance not at least meet state and federal expectations?

3. In which sub-indicators did school performance not at least meet state and federal expectations?

4. In which indicators and sub-indicators did school performance not at least meet local expectations?

Magnitude . . .

• From the UIP Quality Criteria:

Schools/districts must identify priority performance challenges and root causes that reflect the magnitude of the overall performance challenge.

• What does this mean?

Identifying the magnitude of the performance challenge

Do the school’s performance challenges include:

• 80% or more of the students or closer to 15% of the students?

• All students or only some disaggregated groups of students? Which ones?

• All content areas? One or two content areas? Which ones?

Determining Magnitude

• Use the Identifying the Magnitude of the Performance Challenge Worksheet, in the 3rd column answer each question in reference to your school (or a school in your district).

• Describe the magnitude of your performance challenge in your Data Narrative Outline, (Toolkit, p. 12.)

Describing Performance in Relationship to Prior Year’s Targets

Consider: Progress Monitoring of Prior Year’s Performance Targets Worksheet.

Use your UIP from 2011-12 (School Target Setting Form) and your 2012 SPF to answer the following questions:

•Which annual targets from 2011-12 were met? Which were not met?

•For targets that were met: Is this worth celebration? Were the target(s) rigorous enough?

•For targets that were not met: Should this continue to be a priority for the current year?

Reflecting on Prior Year’s Targets

• Brainstorm answers to the following questions:

Why were the school’s performance targets met? Why were the school’s performance targets not met?

• Select one or two explanations to share.

• Capture your “best thinking” on your Data Narrative Outline

Data Analysis Planning• Turn to the Planning for Data Analysis

note catcher.

• Make notes about how you will complete the following:– Review Current Performance (Toolkit, p. 80)– Progress Monitoring of Prior Year’s Targets

(Toolkit, p. 81)

AgendaUIP

Processes Overview

Review Current

Performance



e Challenges

Plan Data

Analysis

Interpret Metrics

Collaborative Inquiry for Data Analysis

• Choose a partner. Take out: Guiding Assumptions for Collaborative Inquiry (Toolkit, p. 35)

• Read individually one row in the chart.

• When each partner has completed a row, look up and “say something.” Something might be a question, a brief summary, a key point, an interesting idea or personal connection to the text.

• Continue until you complete all of the rows in the table.

What are notable trends?• Review Step Two: Identify Notable Trends

(UIP Handbook, p 13-15). • Discuss:

– What are the most critical things to remember about performance trends?

– How can we determine if a trend is notable?

– What are some examples of “notable” performance trends?

Trends• Include all performance indicator areas.

• Include at least three years of data.

• Consider data beyond that included in the school performance framework (grade-level data, K-2).

• Consider local performance data.

• Include positive and negative performance patterns.

• Identify where the school did not at least meet state and federal expectations.

• Include information about what makes the trend notable.

Inventory Local Performance Data• Consider the following tool: Inventory of Performance

Data Sources (Toolkit, p. 17)

• Components (see Legend)– Content Area– Assessment– Grade Levels– Which Students– Content Focus– Metrics– Questions

• Determine how you will complete the inventory of locally available performance data. Capture notes in the Planning Data Analysis note catcher (Toolkit, p. 79).

Trend Statements Include• Measure/Metric

• Content Area

• Which students (grade-levels, disaggregated groups)

• Direction (stable, increasing, decreasing)

• Amount (percentages, percentiles, rates, scores)

• Time period (years)

• What makes the trend notable

How to Describe Notable Trends1. Determine what metrics will be considered and what

questions will guide analysis.

2. Make predictions about performance.

3. Interact with data (at least 3 years).

4. Look for things that pop out, with a focus on patterns over time (at least three years).

5. List positive and negative facts about the data (with a focus on patterns over time, or trends).

6. Identify which trends are notable (narrow) and which require additional analysis.

7. Write notable trend statements.

Levels of Performance Data

Program (Tier I)

Individual

System

Program(Tier II/ Tier III)

Levels and Performance MetricsLevel• Aggregate school or district-

level

• Standard/strand

• Disaggregated group

• Classroom (formal)/Individual

Performance Metric (examples)• % and number scoring at each

performance level, MGP, & AGP (overall and by grade-level)

• Number and % meeting standard

• % and number (within group) scoring at each performance level, MGP, AGP (overall and by grade-level)

• Scale score, individual performance rating, student growth percentile

QuestionsDifferent metrics make it possible to answer different questions. For example :

•Could you determine which students were likely to be proficient within the next three years if the metric you are considering is the % of students who scored proficient or better this year?

Organizing Data for Continuous Improvement

• Consider Organizing Data for Continuous Improvement (Toolkit, p. 41)

• Components:– Path through the data

– Measures and metrics

– Critical questions for each metric

– Associated data reports (or views)

A path through the data. . .

Disaggregate groups further

Select one content area on which to focus

Performance (achievement/growth) by grade level for 3+ years

Within grade-levels achievement by

standard/sub-content area

Performance by disaggregated groups by grade level for 3+

years Look for and describe positive and negative trends

Post-Secondary and Workforce Readiness metrics (3+ years)

Cross-content area performance (3+ years)

Look across groups

Performance Metrics• Academic Achievement (overall and by grade-

level)– % proficient or better– % and number scoring at each performance level

(unsatisfactory, partially proficient, proficient, and advanced)

• Academic Growth (overall and by grade-level)– Median Student Growth Percentiles– Median Adequate Growth Percentiles– % catch-up– % keep-up– % move-up

Metrics for Achievement at the Standard/Sub-Content Area Level

• TCAP Achievement by Standard or Sub-Content Area by grade-level– % proficient and above

Disaggregated Group Metrics• Disaggregated Groups:

– Minority (combines: Asian, Black, Hispanic, Native American)

– Free/Reduced– ELL– IEP– Below Proficient

• Academic Achievement Metrics (%P/A, % and N for each achievement level)

• Academic Growth Metrics (MGP, AGP, % catch-up, keep-up, move-up)

Disaggregating Disaggregated Groups

• Minority (Asian, Black, Hispanic, Native American,)

• ELL (FEP, LEP, NEP, monitoring status)

• IEP (limited Intellectual capacity, emotional disability, specific learning disability, hearing disability, visual disability, physical disability, speech/language disability, deaf-blind, multiple disabilities, infant disability, autism, traumatic brain injury)

Post-Secondary and Workforce Readiness Metrics

• Graduation Rate• Disaggregated Graduation Rates • Drop-out Rate• Average Colorado ACT Composite Score

Identifying questions to guide analysis

• Use Organizing Data for Continuous Improvement and Data Analysis Questions.

• Consider the magnitude of the performance challenge and make-up of the student population to determine which disaggregated data will be considered.

• Determine which local performance data will be used.

• Capture the questions that will guide the analysis for each metric on the Data Analysis Questions chart.

Some Questions for Academic Achievement

Over-All Aggregated and by Grade level Achievement•What are trends in % proficient and advanced over the last 3-5 years?

•What are the trends in % proficient and advanced by grade level for the last 3-5 years?

•How do our trends compare to the state trends for the same time period?

Some Questions for Academic GrowthOverall and Grade-Level Growth• What has been the school-level trend in median growth percentiles over

the last 3-5 years?

• What has been the trend in median growth percentiles by grade level for the last 3-5 years?

• How do the MGPs for the last 3-5 years compare to minimum state expectations?

• What has been the trend in % of students making catch-up growth overall and by grade level?

• What has been the trend in % of students making keep-up growth overall and by grade level?

• How do the school’s trends in CUKU compare to the state?

Some Questions for Disaggregated Group Performance

• What have been the trends in %proficient and advanced for each disaggregated group present at our school over the last 3 years?

• What have been the trends in median growth percentiles for each disaggregated group present at our school over the last 3 years?

• How does the MGP compare to the median AGP for each disaggregated group at our school for the last 3 years?

Focus and Reports• In what content area will you focus your initial

analysis?

• Organize your data reports for that content area, including:

– TCAP/CSAP Summary by grade level (at least 3 years)

– Growth Summary by grade level

– Achievement and Growth by disaggregated groups

– Achievement at the standard and sub-content area level

How to Describe Performance Trends1. Determine what metrics will be considered and

identify questions to guide analysis.




5. List positive and negative facts about the data (observations).


7. Write trend statements.

Why Predict?• Access prior learning

• Name the frames of reference through which we view the world

• Make the assumptions underlying our predictions explicit, trying to understand where they came from

• Activate our engagement with the data

Preparing to Predict1. Select a recorder for your

table.

2. On a piece of flip-chart paper, create a T-chart.

3. Put “predictions” on one side and “assumptions” on the other side of the T-chart.

4. The recorder will capture predictions on the left side of this chart.

Predictions

Assumptions

Questions Guide Predictions• Take out your Data Analysis Questions chart.

• Use your questions to make predictions about what you will see in your data.

• Capture predictions and assumptions on the T-chart.

• Post Predictions and Assumptions on your data wall.

• Be patient and hang out in uncertainty

• Don’t try to explain the data

• Observe what the data actually shows

• No Because

Analyzing Data

Because

Interacting with data• Consider strategies for interacting with data:

– Highlight (color code) based on a legend.

– Do origami – fold the paper so you can compare columns.

– Create graphic representations.

• Agree on an approach – How will you interact with your data?

– Plan to include a visual representation (consider the Interacting with Data Job Aide, Toolkit, p. 65)

Capture your Observations

1. Consider the questions to guide your analysis.

2. Identify things that “pop out”. Note patterns over time (3-5) years.

3. Include both strengths and challenges.

4. Capture observations about your data on a flip chart.

What makes a trend notable?• Consider the UIP Handbook, What makes a trend

notable? (p. 14)

• With a partner discuss. . . to what could we compare our performance trends?

– How did our performance compare to a specific expectation (criterion)?

– How did our performance compare to others (groups of students within the school, district, state)?

• Use CSAP/TCAP Historical Trends (Toolkit, p. 69) as reference for trends in % proficient and advanced.

Trend Statement ExampleComponent ExampleMeasure/Metric Percent of students proficient or

advanced on TCAP/CSAP

Content Area Math

Which students (grade-levels, disaggregated groups)

4th Grade (all students in school)

Direction Declined

Amount 70% to 55% to 48%

Time period 2009 to 2011

What makes the trend notable? This was well below the minimum state expectation of 71%.

Examples of Notable Trends

• The median growth percentile of English Language learners in writing increased from 28 to 35 to 45 between 2009 and 2011,meeting the minimum expectation of 45 in 2011 and exceeding the district trend over the same time period.

• The dropout rate has remained relatively stable (15, 14, 16) and much higher than the state average for each year between 2009 and 2011.

Identify Notable Trends1. Consider your observations.

2. Compare school performance trends to other points of reference (criterion, others performance over the same time period).

3. Determine which of the identified patterns in school performance are notable.

4. Continue analysis until at least 8 notable trends (positive and negative) are identified.

How to Describe Performance Trends1. Start with a performance focus and relevant data

report(s) and identify questions to guide analysis.







Write Observations as Trend Statements

Use the “Developing Trend Statements” template1.Specify the measure/metrics and for which performance indicator the trend applies.

2.Describe for which students the trend applies (grade level and disaggregated group).

3.Describe the time period.

4.Describe the trend (e.g. increasing, decreasing, stable).

5.Determine if the trend is notable and describe why.

Checking our Thinking• Work with your “partner table”. Assign an ‘A’

and a ‘B’ table.• Take turns presenting trends and

providing/receiving feedback:– Table A facilitator presents their team’s notable trends

explaining why each was identified as “notable”– Table B team members ask clarifying questions.– Table A facilitator responds.– Table B team members provide warm and cool

feedback about Table A notable trends.– Switch roles

Capturing Trends in the UIP Template

• Capture notable trends (positive and negative) in the Data Analysis Worksheet, (Toolkit, p. 75 excerpted from the UIP template).

• Note: this worksheet is organized by performance indicator.

Make Notes for Data Narrative• Take out the Data Narrative Outline.

• What data did the planning team review to identify notable trends? Capture this information.

• Describe the process in which your team engaged to analyze the school’s data and identify notable trends.

• What were the results of the analysis (which trends were identified as notable)?

Completing Trend Analysis

• Take out Planning for Data Analysis • Make notes on how you will complete your

trend analysis. . .– Who will participate?– When?– What materials and tools will you use?

AgendaUIP

Processes Overview

Review Current

Performance



e Challenges

Plan Data

Analysis

Interpret Metrics

Priority Performance Challenges• Review

– Step Four: Prioritize Performance Challenges in the UIP Handbook, p. 15.

• Discuss:

– What are the most critical things to remember about priority performance challenges? Why do we prioritize performance challenges?

– How do performance challenges relate to trends?

– How do priority performance challenges relate to the magnitude of the over-all school challenges?

Priority Performance ChallengesPriority performance challenges are. . .• Specific statements about performance • Strategic focus for the improvement efforts

• About the students

Priority performance challenges are NOT• What caused or why we have the performance challenge

• Action steps that need to be taken

• Concerns about budget, staffing, curriculum, or instruction

• About the adults

Priority Performance Challenges Non-Examples

• To review student work and align proficiency levels to the Reading Continuum and Co. Content Standards

• Provide staff training in explicit instruction and adequate programming designed for intervention needs.

• Implement interventions for English Language Learners in mathematics.

• Budgetary support for para-professionals to support students with special needs in regular classrooms.

• No differentiation in mathematics instruction when student learning needs are varied.

Prioritizing Performance Challenges1. Review for which performance indicators priorities must be

identified and the magnitude of the over-all performance challenge.

2. Consider notable trends.

3. Focus the list, combining related trends.

4. Identify trends that are most urgent to act on.

5. Do a reality check (initial prioritization).

6. Evaluate the degree to which the proposed priorities reflect the magnitude of the over-all performance challenge.

7. Achieve consensus on the top three (or four) priorities.

What guides our prioritization?Take out the Data Narrative Outline, consider:

•In which indicator areas (Academic Achievement, Academic Growth, Academic Growth Gaps, Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness) did school/district performance not at least meet state/federal expectations?

•Review the magnitude of the school’s over-all performance challenge.

Combine Related Trends• Consider your notable trend statements.

• Do any of these trends address the same performance challenge (e.g. growth and achievement trends for the same students in the same content area)?

• Combine related trend statements.

• Note combined trend statement can include more than one metric (MGPs and % proficient/advanced) for the same students.

• Capture combined trend statements (and those that could not be combined) on a flip chart.

Initial Prioritization• Identify trends that are urgent to act on (those

that represent performance challenges).

• Do a preliminary check on team priorities using “dot voting”– Each person gets 2 (or 3) votes.

– Team members can spend their votes on different performance challenges or all on one.

– Identify the performance challenges with the highest number of votes (“proposed priorities”).

Aligning Priorities to Magnitude• Review, “How to determine the appropriate level

for a priority performance challenge”, (UIP Handbook, p. 15-16)

• Work with a partner:

– What does it mean to say the priority performance challenge is aligned to the magnitude of the overall performance challenges for the school?

– Identify an example of a priority performance challenge that would not be aligned to the magnitude of the school or district’s over-all performance challenge.

Evaluating Proposed Priorities

• As a team, consider all of the proposed priority challenges.

• Eliminate priorities that do not reflect the over-all magnitude of the performance challenge for the school or district.

• Identify remaining priority performance challenges.

Capturing Priority Performance Challenges in the UIP Template

• Capture priority performance challenges by performance indicator in the Data Analysis Worksheet (Toolkit, p. 75 excerpted from the UIP template).

• Some priority performance challenges may be listed by more than one performance indicator.

Apply Quality Criteria Section III: Priority Performance Challenges

• Use the Quality Criteria for Unified Improvement Planning, Trends and Priority Performance Challenges

• Consider:

– How are the trends and priority performance challenges similar and/or different from that reflected in quality criteria?

– How could these sections be improved upon?

Data Narrative Notes• Take out the Data Narrative Outline. (Toolkit, p.

14)

• Describe the process in which your team engaged to prioritize your performance challenges.

• What were the results? Which performance challenge(s) were selected as priorities for the current school year? Why was each prioritized?

• List your priority performance challenges.

Completing Prioritization of Performance Challenges

• Take out Planning for Data Analysis note catcher (Toolkit, p. 84).

• Make notes on how you will complete your prioritization of performance challenges. . .– Who will participate?– When?– What materials and tools will you use?

AgendaUIP

Processes Overview

Review Current

Performance



e Challenges

Plan Data

Analysis

Interpret Metrics

Data Narrative Notes• In the Planning for Data Analysis/Data Narrative note

catcher (Toolkit p. 79-85) Make any final notes about the following components of the data narrative:

– Review of Current Performance

– Trend Analysis

– Priority Performance Challenges

• Consider the tasks involved in completing the Data Analysis Portion of the Data Narrative.

• Make notes about how these tasks will be completed, when, and by whom.

Next Steps

• Bring Prioritized Performance Challenges to the Root Cause Analysis session.

Give us Feedback!!• Written: Use sticky notes

+ The aspects of this session that you liked or worked for you.

The things you will change in your practice or that you would change about this session.

? Question that you still have or things we didn’t get to today.

Ideas, ah-has, innovations

• Oral: Share one ah ha!

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