Horizon Scan 2016
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Transcript of Horizon Scan 2016
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BCI Horizon Scan 2016Andrew Scott CBCI
Senior Communications ManagerBusiness Continuity Institute
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About the BCI
• Membership• 8,000 members• Students -> Fellows• 40% in the UK
• Partnership• 120 organizations
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About the BCI
• Training & certification• 1,300 new business
continuity professionals are certified each year
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About the BCI
• Research
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About the BCI
• Research
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Why horizon scan?
• To assess the threats• To address the impact
“The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men gang aft agley”
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Black Swan Theory
1. Fooled by Randomness (2001)
2. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• The event is a surprise• The event has a major
impact• In hindsight it could have
been predicted
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About the BCI Horizon Scan 2016 Survey
568 74organizations countries
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2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
10
20
30
40
50
60
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
2012 2013 2014 2015 201612345678
Level of concern - ranking
No. 5 threat:Security incident
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2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
10
20
30
40
50
60
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
2012 2013 2014 2015 20161
3
5
7
9
11
Level of concern - ranking
No. 4 threat:Act of terror
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2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
102030405060708090
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
2012 2013 2014 2015 20161
2
3
4
Level of concern - ranking
No. 3 threat:IT/telecoms outage
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2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
102030405060708090
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
2012 2013 2014 2015 20161
2
3
4
Level of concern - ranking
No. 2 threat:Data breach
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2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
102030405060708090
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
2012 2013 2014 2015 20161
2
3
4
Level of concern - ranking
No. 1 threat:Cyber attack
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What does this mean?
• Are cyber attacks the most likely disruption?
• Will a cyber attack have the biggest impact?
• The BCI Horizon Scan Report sets the baseline.
• Every organization must conduct their own horizon scan.
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Tracking threats
• Appears in the top 10 for the first time since the survey began
5
Availability of keytalents or skills
(14th to 9th)
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Tracking threats
• Almost three-quarters of organizations (74%) report at least 1 disruption/year*
• 14% claim losses of at least €1 million*
2
Supply chain disruption(5th to 7th)
*BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2015
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Tracking threats
5
Human illness(8th to 13th)
• Ebola no longer the threat it once was
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Top 5 trends
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Further analysis - location
• Europe mirrors global view• Adverse weather top threat in Central/Latin
America• Interruption to utility supply top threat in Sub-
Saharan Africa• Political change a growing concern for Middle East
& North Africa, Central/Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa
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Further analysis - sector
• Supply chain disruption the top threat in the manufacturing industry
• IT/telecoms outage the top threat in health and social care. Emergence of a global pandemic the top trend to watch out for
• New regulations and increased regulatory scrutiny the top threat in the finance and IT/telecoms industries
• Political change the top trend in education
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Further analysis - size
• Very little difference between SMEs and large businesses
• Loss of key employee more of an issue for SMEs• New regulations more of an issue for large
businesses
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Conducting trend analysis
70% of organisations conduct trend analysis to betterunderstand threats, a slight decline from 73% last year.
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Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
A third (33%) DO NOT use trend analysis to guideBCM programmes, a figure unchanged from last year’s.
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Level of BC investment
There is a slight increase in organizations reportingmore investments in BC (23% to 24%).
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Key takeaways
• Cyber issues continue to dominate the threat landscape although physical security incidents are seen as a growing concern for many professionals.
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Key takeaways
• The ‘human factor’ (i.e. skills shortage, loss of key employees) clearly impacts on business performance and requires a strategic response.
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Key takeaways
• Access to important data (e.g. trend analysis results) remains a barrier for many organizations which impairs resilience.
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Questions?