Homework from previous meeting• Matsuoka-san's report

– Check density of material (target, dump, horn).– Categorize contribution from different setup/condition

s. – Check two Gaussian beam profile case to imitates the c

ommissioning. – Updated geometry should be checked by multiple peopl

e. • Jordan's report

– It is a little bit surprising (for at least to me) that beam profile center shift is expected at INGRID for proton beam shift even when horn is off. Let's check it.

– Assumed INGRID response should be confirmed by the INGRID people.

• General – Include beam divergence treatment into jnubeam and c

heck the effect

Review –K2K-

Hadron production model

8

5

4

2 cosexp1 763

1

2C

BCB

C

B

C pCpCp

pC

p

ppC

dpd

d

p : momentum of secondary particle

pB : momentum of incident proton

Convert beryllium to aluminum by rescaling

)26.055.0(74.0)(x : F

)(

FF

x

Be

Al xxA

Aw

F

Primary interaction

Secondary interaction

GCALOR/FLUKA

Al

Beused

spectrum shape

HARP, Pion monitor and MC comparison

Far/Near ratio vs E

Near

Far

We use the HARP F/N ratio for the oscillation analysis

F/N

Estimation of uncertainty• Primary interaction

– the flux variation in each energy bin by varying a given HAPR Sanford-Wang parameter by 1

– ~30% in the interaction length. – overall charged and neutral kaon production normalization : 50%

• Secondary interaction– Take relatively large differences between the GCALOR/GFLUKA

and GHEISHA– also in comparison to available experimental data

• Horn Magnetic field– 10% uncertainty in the absolute field strength– periodic perturbation in azimuth of up to 15% amplitude with res

pect to the nominal field strength• Beam optics

– 1.2 mm : impact point on target, and 2.0 mrad in injection angle– beam profile width at the target and angular divergence : the 2

0% accuracy with which the beam profile widths are measured at the SPIC detector locations.

Uncertainty on Far/Near

Neutrino spectrum measurement at ND

Fit result of neutrino spectrum

Fitting NSK and Spectrum shape

)()()( fLfLfLL systshapenormtot systematics parameters

),,,,,( F/N nEsksknQE fffffff spec

nQE/QEFar/near

SK(efficiency)SK Enegry scale

Overall Norm Error

Systematic parameters also treated as fitting parameter.

Nsk (Flux)1KT (same target and detection technique as SK)

simply,

But actually

KT

SK

KTKT

SKSKobsKTSK M

M

dEEEE

dEEEENN

111

1exp

)()()(

)()()(

ji

KTijijji

MCKTi

ji

SKijijji

MCNDNiFi

DATAKTMC

KT

oscMCSK

nF/NnQE

fEf

fmPEff

NfN

PfN

m,f,f,ffNN

,

,

22/

2211expexp

)()(

)()2sin,()(

)(

),(

)2sin,,(

i :energy, j :modeND measurement

HARP

ND measurementtuned by Cho param.

Cancellation of syst error on N11exp

NSKMC(f) ∝NKT

MC(f)

N11exp(f)

Spectrum : 1R

SKijijji

MCNDNiFii

SK fmPEffE )()2sin,()()( 22/exp

Contribution of syst. errors on spectrum

Total

Spec. nQE/QE Spec.+nQE/QE

F/N SKSK Escale

K2K-II e appearance searchError on backgrounds from

NC10/CC ratio +6%,-7%

NC/CC ratio(non-NC10) +-3%

0 energy spectrum +-8%

coherent 0 model +3%,-10%

0 mass cut +19%,-17%

water properties +-6%

neutrino flux at SK +-6%

non-QE/QE ratio +-1%

detector efficiency +-6%

single electron selection +7%, -8%

Total +39%,-24%

* Super-K intrinsic