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Homework 8: Hurricane Damage (adapted from Pipkin et al.)

Tropical cyclones have a significant impact on coastal areas of the world. In the Atlantic Ocean they are called hurricanes (from Hurican, the Carib god of evil), whereas similar storms in the Pacific Ocean are called typhoons. They are a significant part of global weather systems because they transfer large quantities of water and warm, moist air from equatorial regions to higher latitudes. In the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the southeastern United States, hurri-canes have shaped low-lying coastal areas and, at times, have caused dramatic losses of life and property. Even with the use of orbiting weather satellites, hurricane prediction and tracking remains a major challenge for meteorologists. Hurricane Generation The hurricane season extends from June 1 to October 1 in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is be-cause hurricanes get most of their energy from the equatorial oceans in the summer and early fall, when seawater temperatures are warmest, usually above 25°C (about 800F). Hurricanes begin as tropical waves, areas of organized clouds 200 - 500 kilometers in diameter (Figure 8-1), in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. As hot air rises over the warm ocean water, the atmospheric pressure drops, and cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation begins, with strong winds rushing toward the low pressure center. At this point the wave becomes a tropical depression. It becomes a tropical storm when winds 65 -118 kilometers / hour (39 -74 miles/hour) develop. If winds exceed 118 kilometers/hour, the storm is called a hurricane (in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans) or a typhoon (in the western Pacific Ocean).

Figure 8-1 Atmospheric Waves West of Africa The airflow off of the western Africa in the tropics are unstable during the NH summer creating atmospheric depressions and sometimes hurricanes that propagate westward.

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Figure 8-2 Hurricane Structure – Satellite View Tropical storms and hurricanes have cyclonic or counterclockwise circulation in the Northern Hemisphere because the Coriolis effect deflects the inward air flow toward to the right. In the Southern Hemisphere, the Coriolis deflection is to the left so that cyclones in the southern tropics have clockwise rotation. Hurricane Naming Prior to 1953, hurricanes were named for the year or month of their occurrence, for the writer who described their passage, or for places sustaining severe damage, like the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (Figure 8-3). During World War II, U.S. Navy and Army Air Corps meteorologists forecasting tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean began to informally give typhoons women's names, probably after their wives or girlfriends. Other naming schemes were women's names in alphabetical order, and by the international phonetic alphabet-Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, and so on. In 1953 the U.S. Weather Bureau began to name Atlantic hurricanes with an alphabetical sequence of female names. The current hurricane-naming method is one of alternating male and female names, such as the recent names Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and so forth. Many names have been retired to the hurricane "Hall of Fame" because their storms were so devastating-Andrew, Gilbert, and Camille, for example.

Figure 8-3 Galveston Damage - 1900 The 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston Texas completely destroyed the town and killed many of the inhabitants. Measuring Hurricane Strength The strength of hurricanes is measured by the Saffir-Simpson scale (Table 8-1), which uses minimum sustained wind speeds to categorize storms (Figure 8-1) from Category 1, a minimal

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hurricane, to Category 5, the most intense hurricane. Hurricane Mitch, which devastated Central America, and Hurricane Georges, which struck the coastal United States in 1998, were Category 5 events.

Figure 8-4 Hurricane Saffir Simpson Category - Damage

TABLE 8-1

Since 1944, aircraft have been used to study tropical disturbances that had the potential to de-velop into hurricanes. Wind speeds and atmospheric pressure changes are measured by techni-cians in aircraft flown by Air Force personnel, who are called "The Hurricane Hunters" (Figure 8- 5). Because hurricanes have diameters of hundreds of kilometers and may have dozens of con-vective storms embedded in them, they may affect coastal areas far from the main storm center. As they approach the shoreline, NOAA's Hurricane Warning Center in Miami Beach, Florida, may is-sue a hurricane watch, a 36-hour advance notice of high winds and storm surge, or a hurricane warning, which means that hurricane winds and surge are expected within 24 hours.

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Figure 8-5 Weather aircraft of the "Hurricane Hunters" flying through the eye of a hurricane. [Photograph courtesy of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, 403rd Wing, U.S Air Force.] Hurricane damage is caused by high winds, flooding, and storm surge. Surface winds can cause an abnormal rise in sea level, reaching from 1 to 6 meters above normal sea level (Figure 8-6). Along the Gulf Coast, the estimated 330 kilometer/hour winds of Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused a maximum storm surge of 8 meters, with 3-meter-high wind-driven waves atop the surge. The end result was a l0-meter-high wall of water approaching the Mississippi coastline. Failure to evacuate caused significant loss of life. One survivor of a "hurricane party" was found floating on a sofa 8 kilometers further inland from the coastal apartment in which the party was held.

Figure 8-6 Storm Surge. (top) A sea level record on Mustang Island, Texas is partitioned into the (middle) contribution of storm surge (atmospheric wind and pressure) and (bottom) astronomical (sun and moon). Note the extreme, storm surge-related high water around February 1.

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Not all tropical storms develop into hurricanes, and not all hurricanes develop damaging storm surge. Hurricanes tend to be cyclic; with periods during which relatively weak tropical storms impact coastlines followed by periods of stronger hurricanes. This is a dangerous sequence, because coastal residents tend to remember only the most recent tropical storm events. Hurricane development and strength may be cyclical because El Nino/Southern Oscillation events (see LAB10) may suppress tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, while permitting stronger storms to approach the west coast of North America.

The relative strength of hurricanes can be assessed from the atmospheric pressure of each storm, measured in millibars (mb) or millimeters of mercury (mm Hg). Inches of mercury is used in aviation and in some weather reporting formats (see Table 8-2 for conversions). Minimum surface pressure, however, is not necessarily a measure of the destructive potential of a hurricane. The lowest atmospheric pressure ever measured was during Hurricane Gilbert in 1998 in the Caribbean Sea: 888 mb, which is a record low. However, Gilbert was not as destructive as some other less intense hurricanes because its landfall was onto rising terrain and into less densely populated areas of the United States and Mexico. Table 8-2 shows the 20 most intense North American hurricanes since 1900 based on atmospheric pressure in the storm cell. Table 8-3 lists the most expensive American hurricanes since 1900. For each storm, the damage estimates have been adjusted to 1996 dollars.

TABLE 8-2

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TABLE 8-3

Movement of Hurricanes

The advance of a tropical storm or hurricane is controlled by the prevailing surface currents of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Tropical storms are moved westward by the North Equatorial Current, but there is extreme variability in the latitudinal (north-south) location of the storm track. Tropical cyclones may move through the Caribbean Sea between South America and the east-west chain of islands east of Cuba and Hispaniola, or they may be deflected north of Cuba into the Bahamas. Storms approaching the Atlantic coast of North America may be deflected northward by the Gulf Stream, or their advance may be sufficiently rapid to move them onshore into Florida or Georgia. Tropical cyclones developing in the Caribbean may move westward to Central America, or as did Hurricane Mitch in 1998, they may be forced northward across the Gulf of Mexico by the Loop Current. Since 1949, seven Atlantic hurricanes have crossed into the eastern Pacific Ocean, becoming Northeast Pacific hurricanes or tropical storms. Another factor that may influence the advance of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean is the presence of warm or cold weather fronts or cells on the North American continent during the approach of the storm. Strong clockwise (anti-cyclonic) winds of high-pressure weather cells may slow the approach of tropical storms, or even stop their approach entirely. Hurricanes "stalled" in the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean may intensify, degenerate, or be deflected to the northeast without making any landfall on the North American continent. The unpredictable nature of hurricane movement is perhaps best shown by the "zig-zag" approach of Hurricane Elena in September 1985 (Figure 8-7).

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Figure 8-7 Hurricane Elena Trajectory The track of Hurricane Elena in the Gulf of Mexico during September, 1995. Elena strengthened to hurricane status in the northern Caribbean Sea between Cuba and Hispaniola, then moved westward until it encountered the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current deflected the storm to the northeast, where it "stalled" off Florida, then made a "retrograde" motion nearly due westward across the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama-before making landfall on the Mississippi coast. Forecasting of Hurricanes Because it is so critical to assess the strength of tropical cyclonic storms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. The National Hurricane Center distributes tropical weather, hurricane, and severe storm information to the public by television, radio, and the Internet. Its web site, at <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>, contains the latest forecasts for tropical storm activity, reconnaissance data, and historical storm data for the North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and other regions. Another «official" source of information is the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, which contains information on hurricanes, El Nino, global climate, and other weather data. The NCDC has images and movies of hurricanes, tropical storms, typhoons, and other severe storms at <http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ol/ satellite/oIimages.html>. Other web sites providing hurricane information and graphics are listed in the Bibliography. REFERENCES Pipkin, B.W., D.S. Gorsline, R.E. Casey, D.A. Dunn & S.A. Schellenberg, “Laboratory

Exercises in Oceanography”, 3rd Edition, W.H. Freeman & Co., 2001. (LEiO)

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EXERCIZE 8-1 HURRICANE DAMAGE 1. Compare hurricane strength (storm category and atmospheric pressure) to hurricane damage

using the information in Tables 8-2 and 8-3. TABLE 8-2

TABLE 8-3

(a) Is there a relationship between strength and damage? ___________ If so, describe it.

(b) Does a Category 5 storm always produce more damage than a Category 4 storm?______

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What 2 storms? (c) Is there a predictable relationship between storm damage and meteorologically measurable

data (wind speed, storm category, atmospheric pressure)?________________ If so, describe it. (d) What factors could produce more damage from a "weaker" hurricane?

EXERCIZE 8-2 HURRICANE EROSION 1. A beach profile survey was conducted prior to the landfall of a hurricane called Zeke. These

data (Table 8-6) show the beach elevation (relative to mean sea level) versus the distance offshore relative to a starting point "benchmark".

Plot these data on the graph on the following page.

TABLE 8-6 TABLE 8-7

(a) Plot the "post-hurricane' beach profile survey data in Table 8-7 on the same graph as in

question 4 using a different color. (b) What effect did the hurricane have on the position of the shoreline and the profile of the

beach? Where was sand eroded from, and to where was this eroded sand moved?

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EXERCIZE 8-3 HURRICANE SURGE 1. The Hurricane Camille storm surge (see Table 8-8 data) inundated coastal area of Mississippi

in 1969 – see the map in Figure 8-9, with place names numbered and survey stations labeled. The data from Table 8-8 have been transferred to Figure 8-9 - an east-west profile along the coastline, depicting storm surge height along coastal Mississippi.

TABLE 8-8

(a) Since the highest wind stresses in a cyclonic storm will be in the northeast quadrant of the

storm, does the maximum storm surge height give you information on the landfall of the eye of Hurricane Camille? ________________________ Explain.

(b) Before the storm, Ship Island was one continuous east-west-trending barrier island. Does the post-storm condition of Ship Island provide any information about the storm's track and its landfall?__________________________ Explain.

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Figure 8-8