Hockey Sticks or Hockey Sticks or Boomerangs?Boomerangs?

The Global The Global WarmingWarming Debate as an Debate as an International International ControversyControversy

By Bennett PiferBy Bennett Pifer20062006

Works CitedWorks Cited Glick, D. Montaigne, F. Morell, V. (2004, September). Glick, D. Montaigne, F. Morell, V. (2004, September). Global Global

WarmingWarming. . National GeographicNational Geographic. . 1-75 . 1-75 . Hansen, James. The Global Warming Debate. AARST. New York. Hansen, James. The Global Warming Debate. AARST. New York.

Nov. 20, 1998.Nov. 20, 1998. Lindzen, Richard. Lindzen, Richard. No Global WarmingNo Global Warming. Environmental News. The . Environmental News. The

Heartland Institute. Heartland Institute. Aug. 1, 2006. Aug. 1, 2006. McKitrick, Ross. McKitrick, Ross. What is the Hockey Stick Debate About? What is the Hockey Stick Debate About? APEC. APEC.

Australia. April 4, Australia. April 4, 2003. 2003. Mann, M.E., Climate Over the Past Two Millennia, Mann, M.E., Climate Over the Past Two Millennia, Annual Review Annual Review

of Earth and Planetary of Earth and Planetary SciencesSciences, 87, 526-527, 2006. , 87, 526-527, 2006. Mooney, Chris. Mooney, Chris. Global Warming and the Categorical Imperative. Global Warming and the Categorical Imperative.

OpenDemocracy. OpenDemocracy. 2005.http://www.opendemocracy.net/content/articles/PDF/2579.p2005.http://www.opendemocracy.net/content/articles/PDF/2579.pdfdf

““The strongest arguments prove The strongest arguments prove nothing so long as the conclusions nothing so long as the conclusions are not verified by experience. are not verified by experience. Experimental science is the queen Experimental science is the queen of sciences and the goal of all of sciences and the goal of all speculation.”speculation.”

-Roger Bacon-Roger Bacon

The current controversy The current controversy is over the following is over the following issues:issues:

Whether the climate is changing beyond Whether the climate is changing beyond natural variations in the historical temperature natural variations in the historical temperature record. record.

Whether human/industrial activity is Whether human/industrial activity is responsible for the change and if so, to what responsible for the change and if so, to what extent. extent.

How large future changes will be. How large future changes will be. What the consequences of climate change What the consequences of climate change

will be. will be.

A balanced ecosystem before… A balanced ecosystem before…

Courtesy of: Courtesy of: http://http://www.phschool.comwww.phschool.com//

Not So balanced after…..

James HansenJames Hansen

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Richard LindzenRichard Lindzen

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Lindzen’s Response to Lindzen’s Response to “An Inconvenient Truth:“An Inconvenient Truth:

Source: http://www.traveladventures.org/Source: http://www.traveladventures.org/

Growing from the inside out?

Are we being told exaggerated Are we being told exaggerated information? information?

Lindzen exposes one such occurrence where CNN to reported Lindzen exposes one such occurrence where CNN to reported that it is unanimous among scientists that global warming is that it is unanimous among scientists that global warming is happening and being caused by human activity. The document happening and being caused by human activity. The document was issued by the National Academy of Sciences and was was issued by the National Academy of Sciences and was intended only to respond to questions about global warming from intended only to respond to questions about global warming from White House. White House.

It read; "The changes observed over the last several decades are It read; "The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability." natural variability."

CNN's Michelle Mitchell went on to report exactly the opposite of CNN's Michelle Mitchell went on to report exactly the opposite of what the document was saying and trying to warn against, that it what the document was saying and trying to warn against, that it was a "unanimous decision that global warming is real, is getting was a "unanimous decision that global warming is real, is getting worse, and is due to man. There is no wiggle room." worse, and is due to man. There is no wiggle room."

““If somebody says you should take jelly If somebody says you should take jelly beans for cancer and you say that’s beans for cancer and you say that’s

stupid, and he says, well can you stupid, and he says, well can you suggest something else and you say, no, suggest something else and you say, no, does that mean you have to go with jelly does that mean you have to go with jelly

beans?"beans?"

Linzen’s ConclusionsLinzen’s Conclusions

Nonscientists generally do not want to bother with understanding Nonscientists generally do not want to bother with understanding the science. Claims of consensus relieve policy types, the science. Claims of consensus relieve policy types, environmental advocates, and politicians of any need to do so. environmental advocates, and politicians of any need to do so. Such claims also serve to intimidate the public and even Such claims also serve to intimidate the public and even scientists--especially those outside the area of climate dynamics.scientists--especially those outside the area of climate dynamics.

Secondly, given that the question of human attribution largely Secondly, given that the question of human attribution largely cannot be resolved, its use in promoting visions of disaster cannot be resolved, its use in promoting visions of disaster constitutes nothing so much as a bait-and-switch scam. That is an constitutes nothing so much as a bait-and-switch scam. That is an inauspicious beginning to what Mr. Gore claims is not a political inauspicious beginning to what Mr. Gore claims is not a political issue but a "moral" crusade.issue but a "moral" crusade.

Lastly, there is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific Lastly, there is a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition. An earlier attempt at this was methods but by perpetual repetition. An earlier attempt at this was accompanied by tragedy. Perhaps Marx was right. This time accompanied by tragedy. Perhaps Marx was right. This time around we may have farce--if we're lucky.around we may have farce--if we're lucky.

Ross McKitrickRoss McKitrick

The “international trust in the The “international trust in the intergovernmental panel for climate intergovernmental panel for climate change (IPCC) has been betrayed” change (IPCC) has been betrayed”

The Hockey stick, as shown on the right in full color, with the equally important, yet less visible, satellite and weather balloon data on the left. You can see here that the warming trend as shown by satellites is much less drastic than by surface measurements.

A medieval period A medieval period ignored after 1995? ignored after 1995?

Michael Mann Michael Mann

A map showing where the proxy data for most of Mann’s work is acquired. Note the lack of data from some areas in the world. This lack of data is a big issue in the climate debate.

Two graphs showing the gradual temperature increase in the last millennium as shown by data acquired from two separate locations. Note the variance in the medieval warm period and the little ice age.

95%

Chris MooneyChris Mooney

Will we always side with the underdog?Will we always side with the underdog?

Will the 2007 IPCC report change the thinking Will the 2007 IPCC report change the thinking of some skeptics?of some skeptics?

Would it not hurt to try to clean up the air Would it not hurt to try to clean up the air anyway?anyway?

Bait and Switch?Bait and Switch?

Chris goes on to quote Kant on his philosophy of the Chris goes on to quote Kant on his philosophy of the categorical imperative. The categorical imperative categorical imperative. The categorical imperative states that we should act only as how we would like the states that we should act only as how we would like the rest of the world to universally adopt to their behavior. rest of the world to universally adopt to their behavior.

He says that to the skeptics, this is far from being true. He says that to the skeptics, this is far from being true. If this was the truth, then the skeptics would surely If this was the truth, then the skeptics would surely

want politics to be evolved with every scientific decision want politics to be evolved with every scientific decision where some error is present, and also, that with every where some error is present, and also, that with every issue similar to this, political inaction would be issue similar to this, political inaction would be accepted even with warnings of such catastrophe. accepted even with warnings of such catastrophe.

Perhaps the best take on Perhaps the best take on global warming:global warming:

““It is rational to allow for the remote It is rational to allow for the remote possibility that global-warming skeptics possibility that global-warming skeptics may someday overturn the mainstream may someday overturn the mainstream view. But that doesn’t mean we must view. But that doesn’t mean we must

delay political action while they attempt to delay political action while they attempt to do so”do so”

-Chris Mooney-Chris Mooney