USDA FOREST SERVICE L INH HOANGJUNE, 20 16

2012 Planning Rule Framework• Create responsive planning process • Allows for adaption to changing conditions, including climate change• Improve management based on new information and monitoring

2

SYSTEM DRIVER§ 219.6 Assessment.(b) Content of the assessment for plan development or revision. In the assessment for plan development or revision, the responsible official shall identify and evaluate existing information relevant to the plan area for the following: (3) System drivers, including dominant ecological processes, disturbance regimes, and stressors, such as natural succession, wildland fire, invasive species, and climate change; and the ability of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems on the plan area to adapt to change;

3

SYSTEM DRIVERPlan Components§ 219.8 Sustainability.Ecosystem Integrity. The plan must include plan components, including standards or guidelines, to maintain or restore the ecological integrity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and watersheds in the plan area, including plan components to maintain or restore structure, function, composition, and connectivity, taking into account: (iv) System drivers, including dominant ecological processes, disturbance regimes, and stressors, such as natural succession, wildland fire, invasive species, and climate change; and the ability of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems on the plan area to adapt to change.

4

SYSTEM DRIVERPlan Components - § 219.10 Multiple use.(a) When developing plan components for integrated resource management, to the extent relevant to the plan area and the public participation process and the requirements of § 219.7, 219.8, 219.9, and 219.11, the responsible official shall consider: (8) System drivers, including dominant ecological processes, disturbance regimes, and stressors, such as natural succession, wildland fire, invasive species, and climate change; and the ability of the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems on the plan area to adapt to change (§ 219.8);

5

Vulnerabilities from Climate Chante1) Evaluate climate change as a system driver of change 2) Take in to account the ability of our terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems and multiple use resources to adapt to those changes

6

SYSTEM DRIVER§ 219.12 Monitoring.(a)(5) Each plan monitoring program must contain one or more monitoring questions and associated indicators addressing each of the following:(vi) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the plan area.

7

Connectivity § 219.19 Definitions.Connectivity. Ecological conditions that exist at several spatial and temporal scales that provide landscape linkages that permit the exchange of flow, sediments, and nutrients; the daily and seasonal movements of animals within home ranges; the dispersal and genetic interchange between populations; and the long distance range shifts of species, such as in response to climate change.

8

Carbon in the Planning Rule§ 219.6 Assessment.(b) Content of the assessment for plan development or revision. In the assessment for plan development or revision, the responsible official shall identify and evaluate existing information relevant to the plan area for the following: (4) Baseline assessment of carbon stocks§ 219.19 Definitions.Ecosystem services. Benefits people obtain from ecosystems, including: (2) Regulating services, such as long term storage of carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood control; and disease regulation;

9

Considerations for planning1. Influences of climate change should be integrated with your resource discussions (not separately)2. Identify if climate change (as a system driver of change) is important or not for each resource in the Assessment 3. Identify resources’ climate change vulnerabilities in Assessment4. Consider those vulnerabilities and restoration potential when developing in plan component5. Consider uncertainties or lack of information on vulnerabilities for the monitoring program

10

Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) U.S. Forest Service Northern Region, Intermountain Region, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Pacific Northwest Research Station, and Climate Change Advisor’s OfficeNational Park Service Intermountain Region and Climate Change OfficeU.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, North Central Climate Science Center, and Western Geographic Science CenterU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative and Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation CooperativeNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationGreater Yellowstone Coordinating CommitteeOregon State University Climate Impacts Research ConsortiumEcoAdaptHeadwaters Economics

11

Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) Provide the framework and tools for agency and non-agency resource managers to incorporate the best available science in management operations e.g. landscape/planning assessments, FS land management and NPS general management planning components, broad scale monitoring efforts, project level design, NEPA analysis, conservations strategies, and State Wildlife Action Plan updates.

Provide a synthesis of best available scientific information to assess climate change vulnerability and develop adaption options

Agency climate change scorecard requirements

12

Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) Vulnerability assessment Vegetation ChapterAll conifer tree species in the Northern Rockies Two hardwoods (green ash, cottonwood)

Four vegetation typesDry Ponderosa Pine and Douglas Fir forestWestern Larch mixed conifer forestLodgepole pine and aspen mixed conifer forestWhitebark Pine – Spruce-fir forest

13

Vulnerability AssessmentBest available science synthesis of existing condition and projected trends

Adaptation Strategy/TacticsMenu of recommendations Actions based on vulnerabilities

NRAP ProductsExposure

(climatic and non-climatic)Sensitivity

(Environmental tolerance)

Potential Impact(Stressor)

Vulnerability

Adaptive Capacity

(plasticity)

Risk Assessment(magnitude and

likelihood of effects)

Climate Smart Options for actions to manage vulnerabilities 14

Vulnerability AssessmentBest available science synthesis of existing condition and projected trends

Management Operations•Forest planning•Landscape Assessments•Resource Program Strategies•Project NEPA analysis•Project design/implementation•Monitoring plans

Adaptation Strategy/TacticsMenu of recommendations Actions based on vulnerabilities

NRAP Products

How can NRAP Products be applied to these operations?

15

Vulnerability Assessment:Sensitivity to climatic variability and change: High temperatures impact regeneration establishment on southern slopes Drought on dry sites exacerbate competition with shade tolerant trees Range expansion to northern slopes Large fires facilitate regeneration

• Forest Planning Assessment

Adaption Strategy / Approach: Promote western larch on moist sites (focus in currently dom. LP or DF sites) • Forest plan - Desired Condition

Tactics: Thin to favor disturbance –resilient species on sites likely to be affected by wildfire Remove shade tolerant species Plant disturbance resilient trees esp. in north slopes Prioritize management with the least moisture deficit

• Forest Plan – Objectives or Other Plan Content (ManagementApproaches)

Resource/Ecosystem Component: Western Larch

• Existing Condition NEPA analysis

• Project Purpose and Need or Project Objectives

• Project Objectives or Design Features16

Other resourcesVulnerabilities and Management Recommendations By: R1 Westside ForestsR1 Central Montana Forests R1 Eastside Forests By: Habitat Type Groups (based on Region 1 Existing and Potential Vegetation Groupings used for Broad-level Analysis and Monitoring)

17

Contemporary Description: Subalpine fir-Clintonia and Menziesia types

These types are characterized by cool and moist site conditions. Species diversity can be high with western larch, Douglas-fir, white pine, Engelmann spruce, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir and grand fir. Other sites are dominated by lodgepole pine after stand replacement burns. These sites are probably too cool for western hemlock and western redcedar to play a dominant role. On the other hand, these sites are not cold enough that whitebark pine is competitive and it usually does not play a major successional role (although it may sometimes be present in minor amounts). Fire history information is scarce. Fire intervals are estimated at greater than 120 years for most sites (Fischer 1987). Vulnerabilities These sites will be affected by a shorter duration of snowpack, will dry out sooner in the spring, and be drier in the fall. Preferred sites for a mix of species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, white pine, western larch, spruce, subalpine fir) will be dependent on topography and extent of disturbance, likely resulting in a more discrete species mosaic. Lodgepole pine is expected to be dominant after stand replacing fires with good natural regeneration. The cooler aspects and higher elevations may be dominated by spruce and subalpine fir with lodgepole pine regenerating after disturbance. Management Considerations for Reforestation

Even under more arid conditions, western larch and white pine will be present but planting should be avoided on the southerly aspects and on soils with poor water holding capacity. Mature white pine with poor vigor may indicate poor site conditions for planting white pine. White pine can compete with lodgepole pine in managed conditions but it is limited by the competition from other tolerant species. Lodgepole pine, spruce, and subalpine fir are preferred over most of the area. Douglas-fir may be suitable on drier sites where growing season frosts are not likely.

HTG 7: COOL and MOIST

18

NRAP Implementation ToolsSummary data sheets Developing process to lay out the options for where adaptation strategies (resilience, resistance, or transition) for each site/situation/scenario could be applied.

ALL IN PROGRESS AND DRAFT

19

Critical Questions & Management Strategies(NRAP product) Vulnerability / Sensitivity(and Climate Trend influencing this)

(NRAP product)Climate Adaptation Strategy and Tactics(Desired Conditions, Objectives, Standards, Guidelines)

Critical Questions• Landscape scale questions (Forest, Watershed, other relevant to resource, etc.)• Site specific questions (in relation to the landscape)

Landscape Scale ManagementStrategies(Desired Conditions or Objectives)

20

Wait and see strategy – (Little to no intervention) - observe, allow resources to self-organize as conditions change, and manage other existing stressors (e.g., nonnative species) without intentionally directing the system towards a specific desired state. Accommodate change and allow ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing and new conditions.Persistence strategy – (Moderate intervention) - retain certain species/condition/integrity/use which may trigger increased management intervention (depending on projected vulnerability). Under persistence strategies, as the climate continues to warm, management intensity needed to retain some historical species/condition may increase Directed Change Strategy – (Higher management intensity) - resist projected changes - a goal of a specific desired new future or new condition Others?

Management Strategies(that considers climate vulnerabilities)

21

1. VulnerabilitiesAssess the general regional and subregional factors that contribute to climate vulnerabilities

(use various Vulnerability Assessments)

2. Downscale List additional climatic and non-climatic factors that could be considered for ranking vulnerabilities that are important for this area of interest

3. Scenario Determination Select primary factors (from Steps 1 and 2) that could be used to group varying sites. (Describe site situations/conditions)

4.Create Matrix Determine where each site fits in the matrix boxes

(each box represents various scenarios or situations on the ground)

5. Adaptation Strategy Options For each scenario fill out climate change adaptation actions that correspond with resistance, resilience, or transition strategy for the site.

6. Context Consider the spatial distribution and quantities of each Scenario

(map spatially if possible)

7. Management Approach For each matrix box, determine which adaptation strategy (resistance, resilience, or transition)is preferred action (proposed action) and which adaptation strategy are alternative actions or contingency actions

8. Implement and Monitor Following implementation of climate adaptation strategies and tactics - track changes in site conditions and assess if the site now fits into a different box in the matrix

22

Western larch example1. Summary tables from NRAP2. Key climatic and non-climatic factors3. Matrix of key factors to help determine management approaches (resistance, resilience, or transition) for your location and the adaptation strategies and tactics that are appropriate for that approach.

Key climatic factors Key non climatic factorsWarm temperatures - Increase fires and fire size +Spring frost - High energy south slopes -Cap soils +Potential connectivity +High forest density -- Negative impacts + Positive impacts

23

Xeric sites Strategy and TacticsStand Density Ash cap soils High High Resilience High Low TransitionLow High Resilience or Transition or ResistanceLow Low Transition

Mesic sites Strategy and TacticsStand Density Ash cap soilsHigh High Maintenance, resilience High Low TransitionLow High Maintenance, resilience Low Low Transition

24

Highly suitable sitesModerately suitable sitesLow suitable sites

Future Climatic Suitability

25

Highly suitable sitesModerately suitable sitesLow suitable sites

Future Climatic Suitability

26

Highly suitable sitesModerately suitable sitesLow suitable sites

Future Climatic Suitability

27

Highly suitable sitesModerately suitable sitesLow suitable sites

Future Climatic Suitability

28

Thank you! -Linh Hoang (lhoang@fs.fed.us)Northern Rockies Adaptation PartnershipPreparing for climate change through science-management collaborationhttp://adaptationpartners.org/nrap/

29