History of Business Statistics

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Business Statistics Shellah Marie SL. Carpio Dr. Josefne R. Torres BSA III – 1 June 05 !01" I. #istor$ o% Statistics The ter& statistics is ulti&atel$ 'eri(e' %ro& the )e* Latin + statisticum collegium” *hich &eans a council o% state an' the Italian *or' + statista” *hich &eans states&an or politician. ,ach centur$ the &eanin- o% the ter& statistics roa'ene' 1/ th centur$ it *as a s$ste&atic collection o% 'e&o-raphic an' econo&ic 'ata states. B$ the 1 th centur$ it *as 'esi-nate' to inclu'e the 'iscipline concerne' *it collection su&&ar$ an' anal$sis o% 'ata. To'a$ statistics is *i'el$ use' in usine -o(ern&ent. II. Mathe&aticians an' hilosophers 1. Thomas Bayes 2 In 1341 he pro(e' a special case o% *hat is no* cal theore&. !. Carl Friedrich Gauss – A &athe&atician *ho 'e(elope' the &etho' o% least s6uares in 1/0 . 7. William Petty 2 a 13 th centur$ econo&ist *ho use' earl$ statistical &etho' anal$8e 'e&o-raphic 'ata. ". Simon Stevin – The in(ention o% the 'eci&al s$ste& 5. Edward Wright – 9a(e the i'ea o% the &e'ian in his oo: on na(i-ation ; Certaine Errors in Navigation < in 15 in a section concernin- the 'eter&ination o% location a co&pass. 4. John Graunt – To-ether *ith =illia& ett$ 'e(elope' earl$ hu&an statistical an' census &etho's that pro(i'e' a %ra&e*or: %or &o'ern 'e&o-raph$. #e pro'uce' the frst li%e ta le -i(in- pro a ilities o% sur(i(al to each a-e. #is oo: Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality use' anal$sis o% the &ortalit$ rolls to &a:e the frst statisticall$ ase' esti&ation o% o% Lon'on. 3. Christiaan Huygens 2 9a(e the earliest :no*n scientifc treat&ent o% the su >ect. /. Araham de !oivre 2 The Doctrine of Chances ;131/< treate' the su >ect as a ranch o% &athe&atics. In his oo: Bernoulli intro'uce' the i'ea o% representin- co&ple certaint$ as one an' pro a ilit$ as a nu& er et*een 8ero an' one. . "oger Cotes 2 The %or&al stu'$ o% theor$ o% errors &a$ e trace' ac: oo: Opera Miscellanea ;posthu&ous 13!!<. 10. Thomas Sim#son 2 in 1355 frst applie' the theor$ to the 'iscussion o% errors o o ser(ation. The reprint ;1353< o% this &e&oir la$s 'o*n the a?io&s that positi( ne-ati(e errors are e6uall$ pro a le an' that there are certain assi-na le li&it *hich all errors &a$ e suppose' to %all@ continuous errors are 'iscu pro a ilit$ cur(e is -i(en. Si&pson 'iscusse' se(eral possi le 'istri utions o% e frst consi'ere' the uni%or& 'istri ution an' then the 'iscrete s$&&etric 'istri ution %ollo*e' $ the continuous s$&&etric trian-le 'istri ution. 11. Toias !ayer 2 In his stu'$ o% the li ration o% the &oon ; osmographische Nachrichten )ure& er- 1350< in(ente' the frst %or&al &etho' %or esti&atin- the un:no*n 6uantities $ -enerali8e' the a(era-in- o% o ser(ations un'er i' circu&stances to the a(era-in- o% -roups o% si&ilar e6uations. 1!. "uder Bo$%ovic 2 In 1355 ase' in his *or: on the shape o% the earth propose' in oo: De !itteraria e"peditione per ponti#ciam ditionem ad dimetiendos duos meridia gradus a PP$ Maire et Boscovicli that the true (alue o% a series o% o ser(ations *oul' that *hich &ini&ises the su& o% a solute errors. In &o'ern ter&inolo-$ this (alu the &e'ian.

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History of Business Statistics

Transcript of History of Business Statistics

Business StatisticsShellah Marie SL. Carpio Dr. Josefine R. TorresBSA III 1 June 05, 2014

I. History of StatisticsThe termstatisticsis ultimately derived from theNew Latinstatisticum collegiumwhich means a council of state and theItalianwordstatistawhich means statesman or politician. Each century, the meaning of the term statistics broadened. In the 18th century, it was a systematic collection of demographic and economic data by the states. By the 19th century, it was designated to include the discipline concerned with the collection, summary and analysis of data. Today statistics is widely used in business and government.

II. Mathematicians and Philosophers1. Thomas Bayes - In 1761he proved a special case of what is now called Bayes' theorem. 2. Carl Friedrich Gauss A mathematician who developed the method of least squares in 1809.3. William Petty - a 17th century economist who used early statistical methods to analyze demographic data.4. Simon Stevin The invention of the decimal system5. Edward Wright Gave the idea of themedian in his book on navigation (Certaine Errors in Navigation) in 1599 in a section concerning the determination of location with a compass.6. John Graunt Together with William Petty, developed early human statistical andcensus methods that provided a framework for moderndemography. He produced the firstlife table, giving probabilities of survival to each age. His bookNatural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortalityused analysis of themortalityrolls to make the first statistically based estimation of the population ofLondon.7. Christiaan Huygens- Gave the earliest known scientific treatment of the subject.8. Abraham de Moivre - The Doctrine of Chances(1718) treated the subject as a branch of mathematics. In his book Bernoulli introduced the idea of representing complete certainty as one and probability as a number between zero and one.9. Roger Cotes - The formal study oftheory of errorsmay be traced back tohis bookOpera Miscellanea(posthumous, 1722).10. Thomas Simpson -in 1755 first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of observation. The reprint (1757) of this memoir lays down theaxiomsthat positive and negative errors are equally probable, and that there are certain assignable limits within which all errors may be supposed to fall; continuous errors are discussed and a probability curve is given. Simpson discussed several possible distributions of error. He first considered theuniform distributionand then the discrete symmetrictriangular distributionfollowed by the continuous symmetric triangle distribution.11. Tobias Mayer - In his study of thelibrationof themoon(Kosmographische Nachrichten, Nuremberg, 1750), invented the first formal method for estimating the unknown quantities by generalized the averaging of observations under identical circumstances to the averaging of groups of similar equations.12. Ruder Bokovic- In 1755 based in his work on the shape of the earth proposed in his bookDe Litteraria expeditione per pontificiam ditionem ad dimetiendos duos meridiani gradus a PP. Maire et Boscoviclithat the true value of a series of observations would be that which minimises the sum of absolute errors. In modern terminology this value is the median.13. Abraham de Moivre - The first example of what later became known as the normal curve.14. Joseph Priestley- invented the firsttimelinecharts.15. Johann Heinrich Lambert- In his 1765 bookAnlage zur Architectonicproposed thesemicircleas a distribution of errors: with -1