Historical contingency and structural determinations

• November’s riots are link – to the death of the two adolescents running away from

the police,– To a political context defined by the words said by Mr

Sarkozy as Minister of Interior: ‘Scum’ ‘Karcher’ (=water pressurize hose)

– But than is not the whole story: there were places where riots where more likely to happen and places where they where unlikely

• To deal with the last aspect, we need indicators of the riots intensity / extension. I have taken two indicators :– Number of days fight between youngsters and the police– Number of cars burned per 100 000 inhabitants

Absolute number of cars burned by administrative regions:

1st week; 2nd week ; 3rd week.

Paris region : cities involved in the riots’wave number of days: white no riot ; dark blue more than a

week

% of cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants (more than 25 000 in Paris region) experiencing riots

according to the presence of sentitive areas

Riots

Cities with a sensitive urban

area (monitored)

Cities without a sensitive urban

area

yes 71.5% 59.3%

no

N=

28.5%

151

40.7%

60

% of cities experiencing riots according to the proportion of large families in their

sensitive districts

% households with 6 people or more 0-3 % 4-7% 8-12% 12% or

more% of cities experiencing riots

N=

33.9%

59

62.5%

80

83.3%

54

100%

18

An urban renovation program has been launched in august 2003 by the National Agency for Urban

Renovation (ANRU)

(0.5 billions €, previouly money was split between the ministry of Housing and the ministry of the City (DIV))

• This program involve, during the period 2004-2007:renovation : 400000 housingsdestruction/rebuilding : 250 000 housings

Intention: Reduce the density of housing, allow a wider diversity of occupation statuses (owner occupant, tenants), enforce the social mixity

Short term consequences : Expulsions and threats of expulsion. The families which are the less mobile and who have only local connections are more sensitive. Moreover, often the social work supposed to prepare people has not been properly done.

% of cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants experiencing riots according to urban renewal

convention (destruction /rebuilding/rehabilitation)

Riots

No renewal convention signed

Renewal convention signed

yes 57.5% 80.0%

no

N=

42.5%

161

20.0%

50

Linear correlations between indexes of riots’ intensity and unemployment (*) in French cities above 50 000 inhabitants

Segregation indexes : comparison between two cities, A & B, composed of a sensitive area and a non-sensitive area of

different size

Riots’intensity according to the segregation index in the citiesD

ura

tion

:da

ys

Segregation: dissimilarity0 .1 .2 .3 .4

0

5

10

acheres

alfortvillangersannecy

antibes

antony

argenteuil asnieres

aubervilli

aulnaysous

bagneux

bagnolet

bassens

bethunebezons

blancmesni

bobigny

boisd'arcy

bondy

bordeauxboulognebi

brétigny

canne-gras

carrieress

cergychampigny

chatillon

chatou

chelles

cherbourgchoisylero

clamartcleon

clichysein

clichysous

conflansst

corbeil

courbevoie créteil

dijon

drancyelancourt

elbeuf

epinaysenaepinaysurs

evreux(mad

evry

fontenaysb

franconvilfresnes

gargeslesggenevillie

grigny

guyancourt

hagondange

hem

houillesissylesmou

kremlinbiclacourneuv

laricamari

latourdupi

lechesnay

lens

leperreux

lesmureaux

levaloispe

lille(moye

livrygargaloos

lormont-ce

lyon

maisonsalfmalakoff

manteslajo

marseille(

massy(gden

maubeuge

meaux

metz(borny

meudon

miribel(ai

montfermei

montigny-b

montreuil

montrouge

nancy(Chamnanterre

neuillysur

neuillysur

nice

noisylegra

noisylesecormesson

pantin

parispierrefitt

plaisir

poitiers

puteaux

rennes

romainvill

rosnysousb

roubaix

rueilmalma

saintdenis

saintouen sarcelles

sartrouvil

savigny

sevran

stains

stcloud

stetienne(

stgermaine

stmaur

strasbourg

suresnes

sète

sèvres

thiaisthionville

toulouse(b

tourcoing

tours

trappes

tremblayen

valencienn

versailles

vigneux(la

villejuif

villemombl

villeneuve

villepinte

villiersle

villierssuvincennes vitry

watrelooswattignies

% cities experiencing riots in accordance with their segregation index

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0,01 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4

segregation index

Ordered logistic regression

Number of obs (weighted) = 284; Wald chi2(4) = 77.53Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ; Log pseudolikelihood = -268.83522 Pseudo R2 = 0.2012

Riots 2005 in Seine St Denis : Observed duration and estimated duration

November's riots: 0=no riot,1=one day, 2=2-7 days, 3=more than 7 days

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

aubervilliers

aulnaysousbois

bagnolet

blancmesnil

bobignybondy

clichysousbois

drancy

epinaysurseine

lacourneuvelivrygarganmontfermeilmontreuil

neuillysurmarnenoisylegrand

noisylesec

pantin

pierrefitteromainville

rosnysousbois

saintdenissaintouensevranstains

tremblayenfrance

villemomblevillepinte

numbers of days observed

numbers of days :estimated

Politics and riots

• There is a direct correlation between the vote in favor of extreme right parties (in 2002) and the presence of riots (Pearson coef.= 0.4).

• In my view, to a certain extent, riots on onne side and extreme rigth votes –an expression of political protest /alienation – are two aspects of these poor districts’ remoteness from « civic life ».

Political and economic integration versus cultural integration

Economic and political participation