Historical and Projected Future Climate Changes in the Great Lakes …€¦ · Historical and...
Transcript of Historical and Projected Future Climate Changes in the Great Lakes …€¦ · Historical and...
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Historical and Projected Future Climate Changes
in the Great Lakes Region
Jeffrey A. Andresen
Dept. of Geography
Michigan State University
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Some Notable Pre-Instrumental Trends
in the Great Lakes Region
• Tropical humid conditions during the Carboniferous and Devonian
eras.
• Frigid, glacial/periglacial conditions as recently as 12,000 years ago
during the end of the Pleistocene era.
• During early portions of the Holocene era, climate in the region
warmed rapidly, resulting in a relatively mild and dry climate which
lasted until about 5,000 YBP. Great Lakes levels fell until the lakes
became terminal or confined about 7,900 YBP and vegetation in the
region gradually transitioned from boreal to xeric species.
• Beginning about 5,000 YBP, climate cooled and precipitation totals
increased, favoring the establishment of more mesic vegetation.
• During the late Holocene, the region experienced a period of
relatively mild temperatures from approximately 800A.D. to 1300 A.D.
followed by a period of relatively cool temperatures from about
1400A.D. until the late 19th Century.
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Mean Temperatures vs. Year, Michigan
1895-2010
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Seasonal Changes in Mean Temperature1895-2010 (ºF/year)
Season
Annual Winter Spring Summer Fall
0.009** 0.014 0.014** 0.004 0.001
0.004 0.005 0.011* -0.001 -0.001
0.003 0.006 0.010* -0.005 -0.001
0.001 0.008 0.007 -0.006 -0.008
0.014*** 0.022* 0.015** 0.008* 0.006
0.005 0.008 0.010* 0.002 -0.004
0.008*** 0.011 0.014*** 0.002 0.003
0.009*** 0.019* 0.013* 0.002 0.002
0.007 0.012 0.012 0.001 0.000
State
IA
IL
IN
MI
MN
MO
OH
WI
Reg. Avg.
Relatively greater changes in
winter, spring
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Grand Traverse Bay - Years Frozen by Decade
1851-2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1851-60
1861-70
1871-80
1881-90
1891-1900
1901-10
1911-20
1921-30
1931-40
1941-50
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-00
2001-06
Years o
f F
reezin
g
Yrs. BayFroze
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Great Lakes Region (32°F threshold)
-10
-5
0
5
10
1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Fro
st-
Fre
e S
ea
so
n (
da
ys
fro
m n
orm
al)
Length Spring FallSource: K. Kunkel, Midwest. Reg. Clim. Center
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Annual Precipitation vs. Year, Michigan
1895-2010
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Frequency of Wet Days and Wet/Wet DaysCaro, MI
1930-2008
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Frequency of Days PAW150 < 0.50 Potential PAW150Ann Arbor, MI, Silt Loam, 1900-2009
(Source: Pollyea, no date)
The frequency of water stress is declining
and occurring earlier in the year
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Mean seasonal total snowfall (inches)
(Midwestern Regional Climate Center)
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Annual Number of Days with Snowcover >= 1” vs. Year, Chatham, MI
1895-2008
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Projecting the Future:
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
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Source: (IPCC, 2007)
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Source: (IPCC, 2007)
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Model-Projected Mean Temperature DifferencesPontiac, MI 1990-2099
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Projected Temperature Changes
Hayhoe et al (2010)
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Model-Projected Precipitation RatiosPontiac, MI 1990-2099
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Source: (IPCC, 2007)
Region projected to become wetter, largely as a
result of increasing cold season precipitation
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(Hayhoe et al., 2010)(Angel and Kunkel, 2010)
Projected Great Lakes Levels2020-2034
2050-2064
2080-2094
*** Recent results by Lofgren et al (2011)
suggest less reduction in future lake levels
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Impacts of Climatic Variability
Past history suggests that society may be able
to cope/adapt with steady climatic changes,
but possibly not with changes in variability
(e.g. changes in extremes, storminess)
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(Source: NCDC, 2011)
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Decadal Ratios of Record
Highs, Lows
(From Meehl et al, 2009)
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March 2012 Heatwave
• Nationally, mean March temperature was 51.1˚F, 8.6 ˚F above normal.– Departure was 0.5 ˚F warmer than previous
all time warmest March (1910)
– Only one month (JAN 2006) with a greater departure from normal
– 15,292 warm temperature records broken (7,775 daytime, 7,517 nighttime)
– Warmest March ever for 25 states
• In Michigan, mean March temperature was 44.4°F, which was 13.7˚F warmer than normal and 3.2˚F warmer than the previous record (1945)– A new all-time record for warmest temp ever
in March, 90˚F at Lapeer on the 21st.
– Individual days where mean temp was more than 40˚F above normal
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2012 Drought
• Due to and much warmer than normal temperatures, drought conditions developed across large portions of the continental USA during the spring and early summer of 2012. – The drought was associated with a persistent
upper air ridging pattern across central sections of the USA (see fig. lower right)
– As of July 16, 56.0 percent of the contiguous U.S. experienced drought conditions, the largest percentage since 1956.
– Crop commodity prices rose rapidly to record or near record levels.
– Preliminary damage estimates at $50 billion (on a national basis).
– As of July 18, the USDA has designated 1,297 counties across 29 states as federal disaster areas.
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Weather Anomaly or Climate Change?• It is very difficult to distinguish anthropogenic
signal from natural variability– “…Although global warming is likely playing a role
in this event, it probably did not play a major one. Meteorology, not climate change, is the main ingredient in the March 2012 U.S. extreme warmth,” he wrote. Of climate change, he said, “. . . its contribution to the magnitude of current conditions (+30°F departures [from average]) is quite small (but not zero) indeed.” Marty Hoerling (NOAA ESRL)
• Ultimately, the physical processes and mechanisms responsible for weather and climate are the same
• Changes in the frequency of some extremes are consistent with long term trends
• Recent extremes are also generally consistent with future climate projections
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Summary• Overall, mean average temperatures in Michigan
rose approximately 1.0ºF during the past century. Warming of about 2.0ºF has occurred between 1980 and the present.
• Milder winter temperatures have led to less ice cover on the Great Lakes and the seasonal spring warm-up is occurring earlier than in the past.
• Annual precipitation rates increased from the 1930’s through the present, due to both more wet days and more heavy precipitation events.
• Most recent GCM simulations of the Great Lakes region suggest a warmer and wetter climate in the distant future, with much of the additional precipitation coming during the cold season months.
• Projections of future climate change in Michigan suggest a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts.
• A changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability.
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Questions?
Michigan State University
Questions?