Historic trends in N and S deposition in the UK 1800 to present · 2019-12-20 · Conclusions • N...
Transcript of Historic trends in N and S deposition in the UK 1800 to present · 2019-12-20 · Conclusions • N...
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Historic trends in N and S deposition in the UK1800 to present
Dragosits, U1, Tomlinson, S.J.1, Carnell, E.J.1, Dore, A.J.1, Misselbrook, T.H.2 & Tipping, E.3
1 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB2 Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB 3 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP
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Introduction – Drivers of change in N & S
Natural terrestrialecosystems
Agriculturalecosystems
Erosion &Leaching
Rivers Lakes Groundwater
Atmospheric N Deposition
Key tasks• Historic emissions – quantify sources, source
data & model spatial distribution• Model time series of emissions & deposition• UK focus & European background• Analyse & interpret data• Publish results & collaborate on further work• Publish data
Present Day
• First population census data• Industrial Revolution
• Domestic coal use peak• Board of Agriculture established
• Large scale Haber-Bosch processing commences
• Increase in motor vehicles
Peak in sulphur emissions
• Peak NOx & NH3 emissions• Sulphur reducing
1950
1970
1990
20101900
1800
NERC Long-term large-scale (LTLS)
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200+ years of history – emission sources
View of Leeds. Overlooking Kirkstall Road (Cohen & Ruston (1912).
Gas PhaseCO2, CO, NOx,
SO2, HCN, NH3…
Aerosol PhaseOrg, NO3
-, NH4+,
SO42-, Cl-
Fuels
Wood
Peat
Coal
low-temperature domestic combustion, traditional burning practices/fuels
Output: emission per kg fuel
Great Smog of 1952
Pig density
London horse buses
Town gas
19th century livestock weigh bridges
DUKES historical power station data
Seabird guano industry
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Pig density (county level)
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Agricultural ammonia emissions
2010
Agricultural NH3 Emissions
kg NH3N ha-1 yr-1
≤ 10
> 10 - 100
> 100 - 500
> 500 - 1,000
> 1,000
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Historic emission trends 1800-2010
SOx emissions (kt SO2)combustion of fossil fuels (industry, power generation)
NOy emissions (kt NO2) combustion of fossil fuels (mainly industry, transport)
SO2 important for atmospheric chemistry/deposition processes
NHx emissions (kt NH3)agriculture (livestock manures, fertiliser application)waste processing (composting, anaerobic digestion, sewage, etc.)
2016
2016
2016
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European background & deposition modelling
Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model
Creating boundary conditions for a 5km FRAME-UK simulation
µg m-3
SO4
18001800 1900
1950 1970
1990 2010
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Total nitrogen deposition 1800-2030
Grid square average deposition
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Oxidised N deposition 1800-2030Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, domestic burning, mining, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Further increase in transport & industry, peak NOx
Large power stations, road transport
International & national legislation
Main sources:• Combustion• Motorised
transport• Industry
Grid square average deposition
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Reduced N deposition 1800-2030
Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, livestock, domestic burning, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Further agricultural intensification, transport & industry, peak NH3
fertiliser input increasing & associated agricultural production
Small decrease in NH3 (mainly fewer animals, less fertiliser applied, some mitigation, e.g. IED)
Main source:Agriculture (livestock & fertilisers)
Grid square average deposition
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Habitat-specific N deposition 1800-2030
Grid square average deposition
You’ll have to wait until this afternoon …
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Components of N Deposition (1970)
Grid square average deposition estimates
(i.e. taking account of land cover)
NOyWet Deposition
NOyDry Deposition
NHxWet Deposition
NHxDry Deposition
Total N Deposition
N Deposition
kg N ha-1 yr-1
≤ 2.5
> 2.5 - 5
> 5 - 10
> 10 - 15
> 15 - 25
> 25
Oxidised nitrogen Reduced nitrogen
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Temporal trends in N deposition 1800-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
ktN
ye
ar-1 Total N
Reduced N
Oxidised N
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Analysis of N deposition components
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
ye
ar-1
NHx total NOy total N total
Oxidised/reduced N deposition 1800-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
ye
ar-1
N total N wet N dry
Wet/Dry N deposition 1800-2030
0
50
100
150
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
yea
r-1
NHx dry NOy dry NHx wet NOy wet
Components of N deposition (wet NOx, dry NOx, wet NHx, dry NHx)
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Sulphur deposition maps 1800-2030
Grid square average deposition
You’ll have to wait until this afternoon …
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Comparison with measurement-based data
CBED model, R. Smith et al.,
CEH Edinburgh
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Conclusions
• N & S deposition increased hugely during 19/20th
centuries
• S deposition – emission reductions a big policy success!
• Recent considerable decreases (since ~1990) in total N
deposition mainly due to NOx emission reductions
following international legislation (e.g. combustion plants,
catalytic converters). Partial success story, in progress.
• Reduced N (ammonia) now largest source of N
deposition, largely unchanged & predicted to remain stable
• Changing spatial patterns and composition of N deposition
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Further work
Deposition & concentration data will enable a wealth of
assessments of cumulative atmospheric N and S inputs and
their impacts, on habitats and species as well as on human
health.
Next steps:
• Continue analysis and interpretation
• Initial peer-review publications (in prep)
• Further collaborations on request
• Publication of datasets (2-yr grace period to Dec-2017)
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Acknowledgements
Online datasets:
Vision of Britain, Edina Agricultural Census, Defra UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Contributions:
David Simpson (Norwegian Meteorological Institute & Chalmers University of Technology)
Maciej Kryza (University of Wroclaw)