Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting

Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting

June 20, 2012

Paul Basile, CEO Matchpoint Careers, Inc [email protected]

Introductions

POLL 1: who are we?

•  In-house talent acquisition specialist •  Talent management specialist •  HR generalist •  Professional recruiter •  None of the above

POLL 2: Moneyball and me

•  I know the Moneyball story very well •  I know Moneyball, but what’s the link to recruitment? •  I have heard, vaguely, of Moneyball •  I hate baseball •  I know who Brad Pitt is…

Why Moneyball?

The Moneyball story

The Lessons of Moneyball

What’s the Moneyball of Recruiting? 1.  Identify the problem to solve 2.  Find the solution to that problem 3.  Act on what we know: implement the solution 4.  Eliminate everything else

1. What’s the problem?

What we want What we can afford

The difference top performers make

Top 15% of performers

Bottom 15% of performers

$48,000 $80,000 $112,000

↑↓ 40+%

How do we recruit now?

Our results

So, what’s going on?

Sele

ctio

n ap

proa

ch

Job performance

False positives

True negatives

True positives

False negatives

What we get

Sele

ctio

n ap

proa

ch

Job performance

False positives

True negatives

True positives

False negatives

What we want

Job performance

False negatives

True positives

False positives

True negatives Se

lect

ion

appr

oach

2. The solution: predict performance

0

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7 Correlation coefficient

Weak predictors

0

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Unstructured interviews (0.18)

Years of education (0.10) Years of job experience (0.18)

Graphology (0.02)

Age (-0.1)

Weakly predictive

Correlation coefficient

Medium predictors

0

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Knowledge of the job (0.48)

References (0.36)



Graphology (0.02)

Age (-0.1)

Weakly predictive

Somewhat predictive

Personality tests (0.40)


Strong predictors

0

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Cognitive ability tests (0.51)

Cognitive ability tests with behavioral assessment (0.67)


References (0.36)



Graphology (0.02)

Age (-0.1)

Weakly predictive

Somewhat predictive

Powerfully predictive



Structured interviews (0.51)

Strong predictors

0

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Cognitive ability tests (0.51)

Cognitive ability tests with behavioral assessment (0.67)


References (0.36)



Graphology (0.02)

Age (-0.1)

Weakly predictive

Somewhat predictive

Powerfully predictive



Adapted from I. Robinson and M. Smith, Personnel Selection (2001) British

Psychological Society

Structured interviews (0.51)

Predictive selection

Employee performance

• Cognitive ability • Behavior • Preferences

Differentiators

Predictive selection

Employee performance

• Cognitive ability • Behavior • Preferences • Skills

• Knowledge Differentiators

Baselines

Example: Project Oxygen

Example: Project Oxygen

Technical ability the least important success factor

3. Act: Implement the solution

Measure the job demands

Measure candidate skills & knowledge

Measure candidate cognitive ability

Measure candidate behaviors

Measure candidate preferences

Bring the data together

Job


Job

Candidates


Job

Candidates

Rank & shortlist


Job

Candidates

Hire

Rank & shortlist

Timing

Timing

Application forms / résumés

Interviews / other assessments

Psychometric assessments

Traditional recruitment pipeline

Application forms / résumés



Self-selection, employer-specific assessments



Performance-predicting recruitment pipeline

Traditional recruitment pipeline

Timing

4. Eliminate all else

What to eliminate

But is it practical?

Candidate time


< 1h 30 mins

Candidate time


< 1h 30 mins

Candidate time Employer time


< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes

Candidate time Employer time


< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes

Candidate time Employer time Data processing time


< 1h 30 mins < 30 minutes < 1 minute





$$$ Current cost-per-shortlist




$$$ Future cost-per-shortlist

Results

Recap: Winning an Unfair Game 1.  Identify the problem to solve:

- Get performance and get it reliably and affordably, while competing with richer, bigger players.



2.  Find the solution to that problem - Predict performance; we know how to do it; the best

companies do it – but don’t try to compete on their terms





3.  Act on what we know: implement the solution - Assess people, assess jobs; use technology to do this quicker

and cheaper than traditional means





3.  Act on what we know: implement the solution - Assess people, assess jobs; use technology to do this quicker

and cheaper than traditional means

4.  Eliminate everything else - This is the hardest part; not done, you will lose an unfair game

Thank you

Paul Basile

[email protected]

Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting

Business

Transcript of Hiring in an Unfair Game: The Moneyball of Recruiting