Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections …€¦ · Tri‐County Population...
Transcript of Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections …€¦ · Tri‐County Population...
Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and AllocationsDECEMBER 2017
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Presentation Overview
Overview of the Allocation Process
Population and Employment Projections
Trend Analysis
2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis
Next Steps
Overview of the Allocation Process
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Employment Allocation
Update the projections, horizon date and underlying assumptions
Understand recent demographic trends and how they may impact Hillsborough County in the future
Grounded in a real estate market analysis
Look at scenarios of how policy and infrastructure changes impact where population and jobs go
Input from all 4 local governments throughout
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Results
• Trend analysis of demographic shifts and market and real estate forecasts
• Assessment of scenarios for whether they achieve our goals: Quality of Life Fiscal Sustainability Economic prosperity Responsible Growth Consistency of Action
• Updated population and job projections to be utilized for future planning efforts
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Employment Allocation
Where will growth go? What is the
trend?
How much will we grow?
Where do we want growth to
go? What facilities will be
needed?
Population & Employment Projections
Alternative Allocation Scenarios
How will different infrastructure and policy decisions
impact that trend?
Trend and Market Analysis
Hybrid ScenarioComprehensive Plan
MPO LRTPMaster Plans
CIP
How much will we grow?Population and Employment Projections
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Control Totals
• Projected population and employment for 2045 + interim years
• Allows us to compare different scenarios in a uniform way Can we accommodate that growth? Do we want to? How? Where?
• Conditions change = plans and projections change
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population
1,300,000
1,500,000
1,700,000
1,900,000
2,100,000
2,300,000
2,500,000
2,700,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045
Popu
latio
n
2045 Population Projections
2,475,000
2,140,000
2,007,000
1,562,000
BEBR Medium
BEBR Low
BEBR High
W & P
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Shorter Term Projections
2020 2025 2030
BEBR 1,466,900 1,602,900 1,722,900
W&P 1,466,512 1,593,378 1,727,334
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment
850,000
950,000
1,050,000
1,150,000
1,250,000
1,350,000
1,450,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045
Employ
men
t
2045 Employment Projections
1,377,000
1,224,000
1,164,000
0.58 jobs per person
W&P
0.61 jobs per person
Where will growth go?Trend Analysis
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Trend Analysis
• Based on historical growth trend• Follows Future Land Use Plan/Map
• Supported by building permit data
• Considers latest demographic data
• Real estate market analysis consultant review
• Draft data/maps attached
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Trend analysis and planning assumptionsLand use
Development Activity
Demographics
Policy
2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis
2045 Population and Employment Projections
What will Hillsborough County look like in 30 years?
• Where will we grow?
• How will we grow?• What does this mean for… Transportation? Housing? Infrastructure? Schools?
2045 Population and Employment Projections
2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis
• What do you want to get out of it?
• Test and update assumptions from Imagine 2040
• Test impact of different infrastructure decisions
Next Steps
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Timeline
• Trend and Market Analysis – early 2018
• Alternative Scenarios – Spring 2018 • Outreach – Summer 2018
• Hybrid Scenario – Fall 2018
Attachments –Draft Trend Analysis Maps
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: 1960
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: 1970
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: 1980
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: 1990
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: 2000
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: 2010
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsDeveloped land: Present
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential: Key Findings
• Steady, continuous growth• Trend toward smaller lot sizes
• Unit type balance remains constant
• Seasonal housing is concentrated in the south
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential Growth TrendsDwelling Units
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
460,000
470,000
480,000
490,000
500,000
510,000
520,000
530,000
540,000
550,000
560,000
Dwellin
g Units
DU Growth Since 2005
1.14% Annual Average Growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates
12% Increase from 2005 – 2015
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Housing Type
Residential Growth Trends
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates
Single‐Family56%
Single‐Family
Attached7%
Mobile Home or Other8%
Multi‐Family29%
2045 Population and Employment Projections
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential Growth TrendsHousing Type
56.3%
29.1%
9.0%5.6%
56.2%
29.4%
7.7% 6.7%
Single‐Family Multi‐Family Mobile Home or Other Single‐Family Attached
2005 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Residential Growth TrendsSingle‐Family Residential Lot Size ‐ Countywide
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
0.66
0.630.62
0.600.59
0.580.56
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Present
Acres
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment and Activities:Key Findings• Bulk of employment is in professional, office, services, retail
• Strong growth in employment since 2010
• Strong growth in floor space since 2000, leveling off in 2010• Employee space utilization is becoming more efficient
• FAR has leveled off
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment Growth TrendsTotal Employment
472,100
115,10084,200
585,800
149,600
86,100
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Office +Commercial
Industrial Institutional
Total Employment
2010
2015
Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database.
24% increase
30% increase 2% increase
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment Growth TrendsFloor Area(millions of square feet)
50.8
6.9
19.6
39.0
3.2
11.64.3
11.7
21.6
77.1
2.1
65.4
17.6
29.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database.
OfficeCommercial
Industrial
Institutional
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Employment Growth TrendsFloor Area(millions of square feet)
48.4
65.4
86.080.8
58.5
80.2
100.5 101.6
60.5
83.6
103.8 104.2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Office Commercial Industrial Institutional
Floor Area (millions of square feet)
2000
2010
2017
Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis.Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database.
25% increase
28% increase
21% increase 29% increase
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsTrend Development Focus Areas
Port
Tampa Heights/Ybor City
Hyde Park
USF/Innovation Place/University Mall
Westshore
Plant City West
DowntownUS 41 Port Activity Corridor
Temple Terrace East
West Riverfront
North Airport
US 301 Corridor
I‐4 USA Expansion
Northeast Master Plan
Northwest Hillsborough
County
East Rural Area
RP‐2 Area
South County
Little Manatee South
Preservation
New Growth
Primarily Residential
Employment and Residential
Infill and Redevelopment
Primarily Employment
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsResidential Building Permits by Unit
• Downtown• Channel District• West Riverfront• Westshore• South Brandon
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use TrendsNon‐Residential Building Permits by Unit
• Downtown• Westshore• Airport area
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends
Developable Land
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use Trends
Redevelopment Potential
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Carrying capacity
• Hillsborough County will add roughly 630,000 people and 340,000 jobs by 20451.
• There are approximately 75,000 acres of unconstrained vacant and redevelopable land within the USA and Plant City.
• Assume 52,500 acres (70%) are residential and 22,500 acres (30%) are non‐residential.
1 Based on BEBR medium projection and current population to employment ratio.
2045 Population and Employment Projections
How much population can 52,500 acres accommodate?
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
3 units per acre 5 units per acre 7 units per acre
Projected population growth by 2045
Assumes 2.3 persons per household.
2045 Population and Employment Projections
How much employment can 22,500 acres accommodate?
294,000
441,000
588,100
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0.1 FAR 0.15 FAR 0.2 FAR
Projected employment growth by 2045
Assumes 3 employees per 1,000 square feet.
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Land Use:For Consideration• We will likely consume all developable land before 2045.
• How will the market respond?
• Redevelopment, infill and intensification.
• Growth pressure on USA expansion.
2045 Population and Employment Projections
• Hillsborough population share is stable• Pasco’s share is growing, Pinellas declining• The county is trending older• Much larger share of millennials in multi‐family housing • Average household size on a slight decline• Significant patterns in student enrollment (suburban), zero‐car
households (urban)
Population and Demographic Trends:Key Findings
2045 Population and Employment Projections
‐
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco
Tri‐County Population Growth Percent of Tri‐County Population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1960 1980 2000 2010 2015
Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates
Population and Demographic TrendsPopulation Growth
2045 Population and Employment Projections
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under 18 18 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 64 65 and Over
1985 2015 2045Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine‐readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010. and BEBR
Population and Demographic TrendsAge Cohorts
2045 Population and Employment Projections
6% 7% 7%4%
19% 21% 21%
15%
8% 7%5%
4%
38%
20%
12%
7%
Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 ‐ 64 65 and Up
Single‐Family Multi‐Family
Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine‐readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010.
Population and Demographic TrendsAge Cohorts by Housing Type
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Population and Demographic TrendsAuto Ownership
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates
2045 Population and Employment Projections
68%65% 65%
28% 29% 29%
5% 5% 4%
2005 2010 2015
2+ Cars One Car Zero‐Car
Population and Demographic TrendsAuto Ownership
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Demographics:For Consideration• Shrinking household size and implications for housing choice.
• As millennials age, will they continue to opt for multi‐family housing?
• Will older age cohorts continue to opt for single family housing?
• Will auto ownership remain stable?
• Potential for non‐SOV travel as county becomes more intense and mixed.
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Future Land Use
Character
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Future Land Use
Density
Downtown Tampa
South Tampa
I‐275 Corridor
USF
New Tampa
West Brandon
South Plant City
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Future Land Use
Intensity
Source: Hillsborough County MPO
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Plans and Policies:For Consideration• Will market realize higher densities and intensities?
• Is it enough to accommodate growth?
• Are we on the right track for: Coordinated transportation and land use? Efficient provision of public services? Preservation of natural and aesthetic assets?
Where will growth go?Suitability Analysis
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability Analysis
• “Rates” land for development.
• Based on factors that you decide.• Weighting give some factors importance over others.
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability FactorsH = High influence
M = Medium influence
L = Low influence
Criteria Residential Commercial IndustrialExpressway access M H LUrban services H H HUtilities* H H HTransit H HAirport access L LIntermodal access HRail access MWalkability* H HArterial frontage MPopulation proximity* H MJobs proximity M HUSF proximity L HWaterfront access M MGrowth hotspot (residential) HGrowth hotspot (non‐residential) M HCoastal Hazard Zone M L LFloodplain M L LSchool proximity HPark and greenway proximity* H*Pending updates
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability ScoreResidential
The higher the score, the more suitable for development
Most suitable for residential growth.
Least suitable for residential growth.DRAFT
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability ScoreCommercial
The higher the score, the more suitable for development
DRAFT
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Suitability ScoreIndustrial
The higher the score, the more suitable for development
DRAFT
Next Steps
2045 Population and Employment Projections
Timeline
• Trend and Market Analysis – early 2018
• Alternative Scenarios – Spring 2018 • Outreach – Summer 2018
• Hybrid Scenario – Fall 2018