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Argus FMB North American Fertilizer

marketS SnapShothighlightS thiS week

Fertilizers $/st, unless noted

6-mar prior week ±($)

Urea (g) fob Nola 375-415 410-435 -28 ▼

UAN 32pc fob Nola 290-293 293-297 -4 ▼

Ammonia Tampa cfr $/t 460-460 415-460 23 ▲

DAP fob Nola 480-495 485-490 0 -

MOP (g) fob Nola 320-330 320-330 0 -

Sulfur (molten) Tampa del qtly $/lt 110-110 110-110 0 -

Sulfuric acid US cfr $/t 35-45 35-45 0 -

Spot freight from nola $/st


St Louis 11.25 10.25 1.00 ▲

Inola 17.00 17.00 0.00 -

Cincinnati 15.50 15.50 0.00 -

Feedstock for nitrogen


Henry Hub $/mmBtu 6.160 5.360 0.800 ▲

NIT/AECO $/mmBtu 6.260 6.390 -0.130 ▼

NH3 COP $/st 209.56 199.02 10.54 ▲

Crop fundamentals $/bushel, Cbot

mar 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 mar 15 Sep 15

Corn 4.72 4.80 4.81 4.88 4.81

Wheat 6.29 6.45 6.57 6.64 6.63

Soybean 14.19 12.43 N/A 11.84 11.39

related markets


WTI month $/bl 102.77 102.55 0.22 ▲

Copper $/lb 3.25 3.31 -0.06 ▼

Ethanol Chicago ¢/USG 229 214 15 ▲

Ethanol Cbot crush spread $/bushel 1.71 1.58 0.13 ▲

hhh

400

500

600

04 Apr 13 25 Jul 13 07 Nov 13 06 Mar 14

200

300

400

500

Corn (left scale) c/bushel Urea (right scale) $/st

UAN (right scale) $/st

hhh

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

04 Apr 13 25 Jul 13 07 Nov 13 06 Mar 14

300

400

500

600

Soybeans (left scale) c/bushel MAP (right scale) $/st

DAP (right scale) $/st

Corn VS nitrogen

SoYBeanS VS phoSphate

Corn prices rally toward $5/bushel mark

Urea barge prices plummet to $375/st fob for 1H April

NH3 supplier offers inch up in Corn Belt

MAP trades finally conclude, modest premium to DAP

KCl production curbed slightly on transport woes

Issue 14-10 | Thursday 6 March 2014

ContentsNorth American products price list 2Freight rates price list 6Nitrogen 7Ammonia 11Phosphate 13Potash 15Sulfur and sulfuric acid 16Fertilizer news 17

View the methodology used to assess fertilizer prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]

Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Ltd of 22

Argus FMB North American Fertilizer Issue 14-10 | Thursday 6 March 2014

north american price list

6-mar prior week ±($) Year ago

Urea (g) $/st

Nola* barge fob 375-415 410-435 -28 ▼ 395-410

Nola barge prompt fob 395-400 420-425 -25 ▼ 394-399

Nola cfr t import eq 406-450 444-472 -30 ▼ 428-444

Inola/Catoosa fot 455-470 455-470 0 - 440-450

St Louis fot 445-455 445-455 0 - 435-440

Cincinnati/Jeffersonville fot 445-455 445-455 0 - 440-450

Twin Cities fot 475-485 475-485 0 - 455-465

Urea (p) $/st

Nola barge fob, dry 390-395 390-395 0 - 400-400

Nola barge fob, melt 390-395 390-395 0 - 390-390

Uan $/unit n, unless noted

Nola barge fob st (32pc) 290-293 293-297 -4 ▼ 335-340

Nola cfr t import eq (32pc) 313-316 316-320 -3 ▼ 362-368

St Louis 10.31-10.62 10.31-10.62 0.00 - 11.41-11.72

Cincinnati/Jeffersonville 10.00-10.31 10.00-10.31 0.00 - 11.56-11.88

Dubuque/Winona 10.47-10.62 10.47-10.62 0.00 - 11.87-12.19

E Coast cfr t 315-320 323-327 -8 ▼ 365-375

ammonium nitrate (p) $/st

Nola barge fob 350-360 350-360 0 - 339-340

Nola cfr t import eq 379-390 379-390 0 - 367-368

Tampa fot 375-380 365-375 8 ▲ 380-390

Mid South fot 380-390 365-375 15 ▲ 380-395

ammonium sulfate (g) $/st

Houston/Pasadena fot 245-260 245-260 0 - 315-335

ammonia $/st, unless noted

Tampa cfr t contract 460-460 415-460 23 ▲ 625-625

Nola barge fob 400-415 400-415 0 - 615-625

US Gulf cfr t 465-465 420-465 23 ▲ 630-630

Oklahoma ex-works 435-445 435-445 0 - 690-700

E Corn Belt fot 550-585 540-570 13 ▲ 755-775

W Corn Belt fot 510-550 500-530 15 ▲ 730-750

g = granular, p = prilled * = short for New Orleanst = metric tonne fob = free on boardst = short ton fot = free on truckstd = standard lt = long ton; eq = equivalent

6-mar prior week ±($) Year ago

Dap $/st, unless noted

Nola barge fob 480-495 485-490 0 - 467-472

Nola fob t export eq 544-561 550-555 0 - 530-535

Tampa fob t (exports) 500-500 500-500 0 - 486-510

Nola barge import eq (ex-Mor) 509-509 504-509 3 ▲ 491-518

Central Florida rail 450-460 450-460 0 - 460-470

Inola/Catoosa fot 510-520 505-515 5 ▲ 500-510

St Louis fot 510-520 505-515 5 ▲ 510-520

Cincinnati/Jeffersonville fot 510-520 505-515 5 ▲ 510-520

Twin Cities fot 510-520 505-515 5 ▲ 520-525

map $/st, unless noted

Nola barge fob 488-494 485-490 4 ▲ 458-475

Nola fob t export eq 553-560 550-555 4 ▲ 520-539

Nola barge import eq (ex-Russ) 461-488 461-488 -1 ▼ 461-497

Inola/Catoosa fot 515-525 510-520 5 ▲ 495-505

St Louis fot 515-525 510-520 5 ▲ 495-505

Cincinnati/Jeffersonville fot 515-525 510-520 5 ▲ 525-535

Twin Cities fot 515-525 510-520 5 ▲ 520-530

potash-mop (g) $/st, unless noted

Nola barge fob 320-330 320-330 0 - 420-425

Corn Belt fot 350-370 350-370 0 - 450-460

Vancouver fob t std (exports) 270-315 270-315 0 - 400-430

Sulfur (formed) $/t

Vancouver fob 170-180 155-165 15 ▲ 145-155

Sulfuric acid $/t

US cfr vessel import 35-45 35-45 0 - 45-55

6-mar prior quarter ±($) Year ago

Sulfur (molten) $/lt

Tampa del qtly 110 75 35 ▲ 150

$/unit ¢/lb

Barge price to nutrient values

Urea, N 8.59 42.93

UAN, N 9.11 45.55

AN, N 10.44 52.21

Ammonia, N 4.96 24.78

DAP, P205 8.66 43.29

MAP, P205 8.39 41.97

Potash, K20 5.42 27.08



hhh

200

300

400

500

$/t

10-Oct 14-Nov 19-Dec 30-Jan 06-Mar

Yuzhny fob Egypt fobArabian Gulf fob US barge fob

hhh

350

400

450

500

$/t

10-Oct 07-Nov 05-Dec 09-Jan 06-Feb 06-Mar

Tampa cfr Yuzhny fobMiddle East fob Caribbean fob

Outlooks are for the next 30 days and based on an analysis of supply and demand fundamentals.

oUtlook: Steep softening.

The US urea market succumbed to the overall global weakening price trend this week as March and April prices fell amid logistics concerns and worry over timing of spring demand and import arrival. US prices are now closer to parity with other global benchmarks. Fob prices continue to fall in the Middle East, FSU and China as the sentiment of an oversupplied market takes hold.

oUtlook: Firm.

The US domestic market remains in a weather-induced lull but the international market is firm on limited supply. North African supply remains significantly reduced and concern over FSU is exacerbating the situation. As phosphate production is set to increase in the US and elsewhere this should further support ammonia prices.

Urea priCing SerieS

ammonia priCing SerieS

▪ Higher prices taking root in Midwest on hope for late March/early April applications

▪ Phosphate consumption of NH3 to ramp up with conclusion of Mosaic, PCS turnarounds

▪ Buyers eye Trinidad tonnes, but tight availability near-term

▪ Ukraine tensions spur supply concerns but no impact to date

▪ NF sells at $460/t fob Yuzhny, Middle East tonnes booked at $468/t fob

▪ India receives four offers under its purchase tender, lowest at $520/t cfr, for late April

▪ East Asia spot indications firm above $500/t cfr but high feedstock costs

▪ Low acrylonitrile demand prompts Japanese producer Asahi Kasei to close a plant in August

▪ US urea barge prices fall sharply from $415/st fob to $375/st fob for 30-day loading

▪ Full-April barges trade $370-385/st fob range as bearish tone sets in

▪ Warehouse pricing firm on tight availability, increased demand in Southern Plains

▪ Ukraine urea production, exports continue despite concerns over geopolitical situation

▪ India’s MMTC issues urea tender for estimated 500,000t, closing 12 March

▪ Egyptian granular sells at $414/t fob, down from $425/t last week, for Europe

▪ Chinese granular prices fall to $330/t fob on latest sales

▪ Mexican spring demand heats up for March-April shipment

▪ Algeria’s Sorfert loads shipments, new sales will be for April loading



hhh

300

400

500

600

$/t


Morocco fob China fobBaltic fob US barge fob

hhh

250

300

350

400

$/t

10 Oct 14 Nov 19 Dec 30 Jan 06 Mar

Vancouver fob FSU fobUS barge fob India cfr

Dap priCing SerieS

potaSh priCing SerieS

▪ US DAP marginally lower for third straight week

▪ Barge buying limited but supplies tight

▪ Warehouse prices firm marginally but weather impeding grower, retailer demand

▪ TSP barge price around $380/st fob, $100/st below DAP

▪ Timing, certainty of Moroccan cargoes remain in question amid ongoing loading problems

▪ Mosaic books another export sale at $500/t fob Tampa

▪ CF Industries DAP cargo re-exported from China to Latin America

▪ Chinese DAP availability looms for May export tax window opening

▪ Lauren Williamson: Lat Am buyers take Russian, US phosphate in the $520s/t cfr

oUtlook: Stable.

The global phosphate market awaits indications of demand from two of the most important consumers—the US grower and India. In the US, suppliers are waiting for applications to pick up, but weather has foiled field activity to date. Internationally, traders are watching India for signs of whether a 2mn t recovery in imports—as many have predicted—will actually come to fruition, bringing demand back to 5mn t/yr.

▪ MOP barge, terminal prices flat as logistics remain top concern

▪ More retailers buy at $370/st in east Corn Belt terminals

▪ One producer adds some weekly downtime to offset inventory pile up on rail delays

▪ IC Potash publishes final environmental impact statement

▪ Rumors of BPC reunion stir Wall Street investors as PCS stock rises

▪ Canpotex remains fully committed to end-April

▪ ICL, Uralkali and BPC raise France granular asking prices by €10/t (near $14/t)

▪ Suppliers hope new contracts settled with India by end-March

oUtlook: Stable.

News last week of additional Chinese supply contracts booked has buoyed global sentiment, further supported by new speculation regarding a BPC-Uralkali reunion. Granular product remains in tighter supply globally than standard grade, and producers are seeking higher prices in Europe. Some potash has moved out of Midwest terminals in the US but application demand has yet to begin in earnest.



FUnDamentalS

agricultureweather: A winter storm system stretching as far south as the Gulf impacted major crop producing areas this week, bringing much-below-normal temperatures and snow to many areas, according to Commodity Weather Group (CWG). Plains winter wheat received little to no snowfall, however, increasing winterkill risk. Much of the Midwest and Northern Plains had at least one inch of snow cover on 5 March, adding protection to wheat as freezing temperatures persisted, according to the National Weather Service.

Below-average temperatures are likely to sustain over the next two weeks with normal to below-normal precipitation levels projected for much of the US, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA March weather outlook projects below-normal temperatures are most likely in the Great Lakes region.

Colder-than-normal weather is still probable for all of the Corn Belt during the month. Rain chances for major crop producing areas should be normal for March, which could allow for fieldwork to begin once fields are thawed.

Crop progress: The extent of winterkill damage to US winter wheat will not be known until the crop comes out of dormancy, but conditions from select states still show wheat is faring well overall, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Six wheat-producing states provided updated winter wheat condition information this week with more northern areas faring better. Illinois’ crop is 54pc rated good or excellent. Ample snow cover has helped keep 63pc of South Dakota’s crop and 53pc of Montana’s rated good or excellent. Texas and Oklahoma’s crops have been harmed the most of the reporting states because of a lack of rain. In Texas, 46pc of the crop has been rated poor or very poor, while 31pc of Oklahoma’s crop meets those criteria.

Crop prices: Corn, soybean and wheat prices rallied

60% 50% 40% 33% 33% 40%Probability of below Probability of aboveNormal

Source: NOAA

marCh temperatUre oUtlook



significantly this week in reaction to the geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and Russia. The two countries are major corn and wheat producers, and uncertainty over potential shipment disruptions buoyed US prices.

Corn futures received additional support from a stronger-than-expected export sales report. The May contract reached a high of $4.92/bushel on Thursday, its highest point since 12 September 2013, and closed at $4.91/bushel. The contract opened the week at $4.64/bushel. Similar firming was seen in farther out contracts with September closing at $4.90/bushel and December at $4.89/bushel.

Soybean futures continued their upward climb because of strong export numbers, which offset news of a cargo cancellation by China. The May contract closed at $14.37/bushel on Thursday, up by 47¢ since last publication. The December contract gained 31¢ since last publication, closing at $11.86/bushel on Thursday. The December contract has risen almost $1/bushel from a low of $10.88/bushel on 31 January.

The May wheat futures contract surged 42¢ from 28 February’s closing price to a high of $6.44/bushel on 3 March, the highest mark for the contract since 12 December. It broke through that mark on Thursday, trading up to $6.49/bushel high before settling at $6.46/bushel.

FreightRates to destinations on the lower and middle Mississippi river have firmed as fertilizer shippers seek to position barges to move further north during the next few weeks.

Along with demand for service to those destinations, an ice storm last weekend also influenced rates. Several fleeting areas between Memphis and Cairo were forced to reduce operation or even temporarily shut because ice made handling difficult and unsafe.

The bid-ask range for shipments to Cairo through Old River is up by $1 at $9.50-10.75/short ton from $8.50-9.75/st a week earlier. Rates to St Louis are assessed at $10.75-11.75/st, up from $9.75-10.75/st a week ago.

Rates to most other destinations were essentially flat while the shippers and operators seek to negotiate deliveries from the vessels scheduled to arrive in New Orleans during the next few weeks. Because of a lack of equipment availability, shippers are having to expand the number of operators they are using. Shippers may need to use several operators to secure enough barges for incoming vessels.

Much of that fertilizer is expected to head for the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers. Shipping on the latter remains difficult because of heavy ice while deliveries to the former have not yet started.

Deliveries to the upper Mississippi river would normally begin this time of year, but heavy ice is keeping barges out.

Lock and Dam 8, near Genoa, Wisconsin, was scheduled to reopen to traffic on 10 March but the US Army Corps of Engineers has postponed that reopening to 17 March because of thick ice. The lock has been shut since 2 December and since then the corps had performed maintenance at the site.

The corps is monitoring ice thickness in Lake Pepin, located on the upper Mississippi a few miles north of Winona, Wisconsin, and levels remain thick. Measurements taken 27 February indicates the ice at one location was 30 inches thick but that was a low estimate because the auger bottomed out and did not break through. New measures will be taken 12 March.

Normally barges can break through ice when it is at about

Spot freight barges $/st

6-mar prior week

mississippi river

Old River through Cairo 9.50-10.75 8.50-9.75

St Louis 10.75-11.75 9.75-10.75

Louisiana thru Clinton closed* closed*

Dubuque closed* closed*

Winona closed* closed*

St Paul closed* closed*

arkansas river

Pine Bluff thru Little Rock 13.00-15.00 13.00-15.00

Inola/Catoosa 16.00-18.00 16.00-18.00

ohio river

Paducah 12.00-14.00 12.00-14.50

Mt Vernon thru Owensboro 12.00-14.00 12.00-14.50

Jeffersonville thru Louisville 14.00-16.00 14.00-16.00

Cincinnati 14.50-16.50 14.50-16.50

East Liverpool 21.00-23.00 21.00-23.00

illinois river

Naples thru Peoria 13.00-15.00 13.00-15.00

Hennepin thru La Salle 14.00-16.00 14.00-16.00

Ottawa 14.75-16.50 14.75-16.50

Joliet 15.25-17.00 15.25-17.00

Demurrage $/day (midpoint) 275.00-300.00

Northbound rates originating from miles 90-184 for dry, bulk fertilizers. * No freight rates available based on seasonal closures.



10 inches or less so it may be a few weeks or up to a month before barges can move north beyond Lock 8.

If temperatures warm enough for a quick thaw in late March or early April and rain is heavy, there might be flooding. That would affect tow sizes and transit times and could lead the corps to close the river in certain areas if the situation becomes dangerous.

High water levels have already impacted rock removal in the Thebes area. Work has temporarily stopped because the river gauge at Cape Girardeau is above 10ft which generally dictates whether work can be performed. The gauge was at 13.8ft this morning and expected to increase to 14.3ft by 9 March.

FeedstockUS natural gas futures ended higher Thursday following a report of a bigger-than-expected draw from gas storage and forecasts for cold weather in the coming weeks. Nymex gas for April delivery rose by 13.9¢/mmBtu, or 3.1pc, to settle at $4.662/mmBtu. The 12-month strip increased by 2.4pc to $4.672/mmBtu, while the 2015-calendar strip was up by 1.4pc to $4.259/mmBtu.

Prompt-month prices have finished higher in two of the four sessions this week as the market weighed predictions for colder-than-normal weather against the approach of spring and a shift to warmer seasonal weather.

US natural gas inventories in the past few months have dropped well below recent historical averages and prior-year levels, despite the continued growth in natural gas production. This winter’s heavy draws partly reflect increased use of natural gas feedstock in power generation and a drop in North American LNG imports in recent years.

Internationally, the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine has

not been interrupted despite rising geopolitical tensions in the region. Russian producer Gazprom has said it will revoke the gas price discount given to Ukraine’s Naftogaz beginning in April because the latter has not paid outstanding debts for supply last year and February imports, raising concerns that transit to western Europe could be cut off. The price will revert back to the previous contract level of about $10.90/mmBtu from the discounted price, which began at the start of 2014, of $7.30/mmBtu. Gas storage levels in potentially impacted areas are said to be high while a Czech Republic supplier said it could make additional supply available in the event of transit interruption. Both Russia and Ukraine are key global nitrogen fertilizer exporters.

nitrogen

The urea market dropped more than $60/st from last week’s high as barges for March and April traded at much lower price levels amid concerns over delayed spring demand, the volume of April imports and logistical problems along the river system. Higher warehouse prices remain supported in markets where availability is tight, while most Corn Belt offtake has been at a standstill because of weather.

Prilled urea pricing is stable and is priced more in line with granular following the decreases in that market. In the UAN market, high inventory levels along the supply chain have halted buying for now. Higher AN warehouse prices have been accepted as availability is tight until imports arrive next month.

Urea (g)A lack of liquidity to start the assessment period gave way to significantly lower-priced barge trades beginning on Tuesday. Liquidity was discovered for April barges with numerous trades in the low-$380s/st fob Nola. The weakness

Urea barge business

price in $/st fob nola

number of barges loading product

370 1 Apr non-Chinese

375 1 1H Apr non-Chinese

375 1 Mar non-Chinese

378 2 1H Apr/Apr non-Chinese



388 1 1H Apr non-Chinese

397 1 prompt non-Chinese




414-416 >2 1H Mar non-Chinese

hhh

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

28-Mar 20-Jun 12-Sep 05-Dec 06-Mar

0

200

400

600

Henry Hub (left scale) $/mnBtu

Ammonia producer margin (right scale) $/st

ammonia margin VS natUral gaS



carried over into Wednesday, with all-April barges selling in the $370-378/st fob Nola range and March barges reaching a low of $397/st fob Nola. A barge for first-half April loading sold at $375/st fob Nola, down $60/st from the top of last week’s 30-day assessment.

Prompt trades were limited, with early-week deals occurring in a $410-416/st fob Nola range. The prompt price (loading within 10-14 days) is assessed at $395-400/st fob Nola with very limited buyer interest. For sellers in search of liquidity, prompt prices will likely trend further down. A barge for first-half April loading sold for $365/st fob Nola after the close of this week’s assessment window, though the seller noted it was under unique circumstances.

Chinese product was offered at $375/st fob early in the week, down $20/st from the previous week, with no confirmed trades. A Chinese vessel is scheduled to arrive in Nola imminently with another slated for the end of the month.

The drop in barge prices reflects growing market concerns over delayed spring demand as a result of prolonged winter weather conditions in crop producing regions as well as a weakening international urea market. Barge tows are at least a week delayed out of Nola because of residual congestion, while the problem has been exacerbated upriver at St Louis. Delays there are reported at three-to-four weeks for barges unloading to rail, which continues to be backlogged (see Fertilizer news for more). The transportation issues are weighing on the market as difficulty to reach upriver destinations increases.

CHS has booked a Venezuelan cargo of 25,000t granular urea for second-half March arrival to Nola. Separately, two vessels totaling about 30,000t ex-China have been slated for April arrival to the US west coast. PotashCorp has fixed a 22,000t ex-Trinidad vessel of granular urea for early March loading bound for the Mississippi river.

Nola prices have now fallen closer in line with international markets. Latest US barge prices imply Middle East netbacks in the mid-$370s/t fob. This is still more than $27/t higher than non-US Middle East prices but is closing the gap compared to last week’s $58/t premium seen for US netbacks.

Warehouse prices have not yet shown the weakness of the barge market, particularly in Inola/Catoosa where tightness persists and offtake was reported in the $455-470/st fot range despite a recent bout of winter weather. Corn Belt terminals have seen limited demand because of weather,

estimated incoming urea vesselsmonth origin ‘000t CommentsJuly actual 55August actual 306September actual 492October actual 568November actual 352December actual 422January est 498February 650Yara Qatar 50Sabic Saudi 60Gavilon China 25 USWCGavilon Bahrain 40Trammo UAE 35PCS Trinidad 40Koch Qatar 40Ameropa UAE 35CHS Qatar 35Petro China China 55Trammo China 25Koch Oman 40Trammo Malaysia 20CHS UAE 40Agrium Venezuela 25 USWCGavilon Malaysia 25Keytrade Oman 40Eurochem Russia 20March 730CHS Kuwait 40PetroChina China 55Ameropa Indonesia 30 USWCTrammo UAE 35Gavilon China 25Yara Qatar 50Ameropa UAE 40Sabic Saudi 60CHS Kuwait 40Gavilon Bahrain 40PCS Trinidad 35Koch Oman 40CHS Qatar 35CHS Oman 45Koch Qatar 40Dreymoor Indonesia 30 USWCTrammo China 30Eurochem Russia 35CHS Venezuela 25April 534Trammo China 30Keytrade UAE 30Nitron Venezuela 25 TBCPCS Trinidad 45Koch Oman 50Eurochem Russia 40CHS Kuwait 40Koch Qatar 45CHS Qatar 45Yara Qatar 50Trammo UAE 30Ameropa UAE 30CHS Kuwait 44Koch China 15 USWCGavilon China 15 USWCYTD total 4607July 2012-April 2013 5455change -848% change -16



maintaining previous price levels. Twin Cities remains at a premium with a major producer continuing to offer at $495-500/st fot. US west coast prices terminals are at $480/st fot.

Western Canada prices continue to be at a significant premium because of logistical issues limiting shipments to the region, with latest indications at C$675/t delivered (US$614/t or $557/st). Yara has inquired about 12,000-15,000t of granular urea for April delivery.

Despite the lower prices seen this week, US urea imports are still behind the previous year’s pace. The first half of the 2013-14 fertilizer year saw nearly 25pc fewer urea imports compared to the prior year period. Imports for the January-April period are estimated down 15pc compared to a year ago.

Decreased imports are largely attributed to the US barge import market being at a significant discount relative to global fob export prices for the earlier part of the fertilizer year. US urea prices turned more bullish at the end of December as the market realized it needed to rally to attract more import tonnes necessary for the spring season.

In company news, CF Industries will spend $2.5bn this year on its nitrogen fertilizer capacity expansions, driving the US’ move toward less reliance on urea imports amid less expensive domestic natural gas feedstock. See Fertilizer news.

CHS made a public offering of preferred stock at $25/share with the estimated net proceeds of $406.2mn potentially going toward funding for construction of the nitrogen fertilizer plant the company has planned in Spiritwood, North Dakota. Estimated cost for the project has been at least $1.5bn. The plant is projected to produce 2,200st/day ammonia with flexibility to upgrade to urea and UAN.

Urea (p)Prilled urea prices remain stable on limited trade, with feed grade and industrial grade/melt quality each maintaining last week’s $390-395/st fob Nola range. The last few barges off a Russian vessel arriving 15 March sold at $395/st fob Nola. Prompt barges of Saudi product sold at $392/st fob Nola, supporting the range.

A feed grade barge traded slightly below the range of $388/st fob Nola this week. A trader has a vessel arriving this week with 21,000t feed grade prills ex-Romania.

Oklahoma warehouse prices for feed prills are heard around $415/st fot with steady demand. More buying interest could be spurred at a feed industry conference next week.

international urea highlights

▪ Ukraine urea production and exports have not been impacted by the growing geopolitical tensions in the region. Despite Russia’s Gazprom repealing Ukraine’s natural gas discount, the effect on urea production is perceived to be minimal. Yuzhny prilled urea is priced at $330/t fob for March shipment.

▪ In India, MMTC issued a tender closing on 12 March for shipment to 30 April. Indications are that MMTC could buy 700,000-800,000t of urea under the tender, with offers valid until 21 March. January customs statistics show Indian urea stocks are very low. China is a likely supplier with 500,000-600,000t of prilled urea estimated to be built up at its ports.

▪ Chinese urea prices continue to fall with March granular shipments booked for South Korea at $335-340/t fob China, while a Sri Lankan tender for June delivery for granular or prilled netted back to $285-290/t fob China, though this is inclusive of special bagging.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1H 2H (Jan-Apr)

'000

t

Source: GTIS

2012-13 2013-14

US Urea halF-Year import CompariSon

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

'000

t

Source: GTIS

2012-13 2013-14

US Urea importS



▪ Egypt’s Mopco sold 6,000t of granular urea under a tender at $414/t fob for shipment to Europe, marking a $10/t decrease from last week. It was rumored this week that a tender for a larger quantity bound for the US would be submitted. Activity in France has increased with at least 60,000t of granular urea sold for March delivery, with estimates that the country needs another 200,000-250,000t to meet demand for maize application.

▪ Demand has picked up in Mexico, where at least 200,000t is projected to be needed over the next two months. A 25,000t cargo of Chinese granular urea for March shipment to Mexico’s west coast sold in the low in the low-$370s/t cfr, which nets back to about $330/t fob China.

UanThe driving force in the US UAN market this week remained logistics. Poor weather continues to stymie movement from terminals and east coast tanks, which has led would-be buyers to bide their time. Given that the key issue is space availability, lower prices probably would do little to spur demand. So far sellers have been patient—offers are only marginally lower than recent highs.

Although poor weather is clouding the near-term outlook, a few factors have conspired to potentially increase UAN consumption this spring.

▪ Ammonia applications continue to suffer from the prolonged winter. At some point in the season—likely mid-April—farmers looking for a liquid-based nitrogen source will switch from ammonia to UAN to expedite seeding.

▪ Farmers could be more inclined to side dress this season. If weather prevents farmers from getting all of their nitrogen down before planting, side dress demand will increase.

▪ Corn prices have rallied over 10pc from the recent lows in January with the December contract nearing $5/bushel. Higher relative corn prices could lead to more acres, while improved farm economics may allow for increased applications.

For now, however, price indications are drifting lower to reflect the lapse in demand. Offers at Nola have declined to the mid/low-$290s/st fob Nola for March and early April. Producer offers remain as high as $305/st fob Nola for April loading, but more competitive pricing is available. Buyer price ideas are around $290/st fob, although firm bids are rare right now. The UAN Nola barge assessment is reduced to $290-293/st fob Nola.

On the east coast, offers have fallen to $320-325/t cfr amid limited buyer interest. Offers as low as $320/t cfr have been rejected because of domestic suppliers’ lack of available space for new product. The east coast UAN assessment is reduced to $315-320/t cfr.

River terminal offers remain in the range of $320-340/st fot for UAN32, although few sales have been made given the bad weather. Terminals further south, and also on the Ohio river, where tons heading up the Illinois have been diverted, are in the $320-330/st fot range. Meanwhile, terminals with higher freight from Nola in the north are on offer at $330-340/st fot for UAN32.

Known March imports are currently 260,000t, a bit below the last three years’ average for March of 344,160t. Additional March cargoes are likely, particularly if improved weather leads to inventory reduction on the east coast.

US UAN exports were just under 450,000t in 2013, with Canada and Mexico both taking well over 100,000t. Last year’s exports were more than triple the previous four years’ average (see graph).

EuroChem has fixed a vessel to load 12,000-14,000t of UAN 32 in Klaipdeda at the end of March for Hamilton. Freight is reported to be in the low $60s/t.

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'000

t

Source: GTIS

Canada Mexico Argentina France Rest of world

US Uan exportS

estimated incoming Uan vesselsmonth origin ’000t Comments

March Black Sea 35 Fairless Hills, PA and other EC ports

March Black Sea 35 Nola

March Black Sea 35 USEC

March Russia 57 USEC or Nola

March Russia 30 USEC and/or Nola, Stolt Ocelot

March Russia 25 USEC, Lady Malou

March Russia 42.5 US Gulf

April Russia 30 USEC



Ameropa is checking freight for 12,500t to load in Constantza, Romania, 10-25 April for the Great Lakes.

In operations, it is understood that Helm’s Trinidad and Tobago plant is facing another outage, although the severity is unclear.

ammonium nitrate (p)The AN market remains tight with no barge availability until the arrival of April imports. Business this week concluded at $350/st fob Nola for April loading with another trader continuing to offer at $360/st fob, in line with the prevailing assessment. May tons are also said to be similarly priced.

Higher warehouse prices have gained traction in the AN market, supported by steady demand in southern regions. Florida warehouses have sold tons at $380/st fot as weather conditions in the area have allowed for fieldwork. The Tampa warehouse price is increased to $375-380/st fot with asking prices $385/st fot seen as slightly above the market.

Mid-South warehouse have seen similar price indications because of tightness, with Memphis priced at $385/st fot and a limited amount of tons selling in the $390s/st fot. The Mid-South assessment is raised to $380-390/st fot to reflect most recent business. Above $400/st fot prices are offered out of Arkansas river terminals.

ammonium sulfate (g)A major producer in the east increased asking prices $10/st, as expected, and asking prices at most terminals increased in tandem. One major producer increased fob offers to the $270s/st while a smaller producer remains around $10/st below this level for granular.

Terminals in the Midwest are inching prices upward to $280/st fot, though tons are still getting booked at the prevailing $270s/st fot range. Lower prices are offered in the Delta, which is closer to Texas production points. Prices this season are down about 25pc from year-ago levels.

Standard grade amsul was previously offered around $200/st rail delivered Florida but is expected to increase, given the upward adjustments elsewhere.

Sales into the South and Southeast markets have been stronger compared with the Midwest, according to some producers. Several suppliers suggest only around 40pc of spring business is concluded for the Corn Belt with more spot sales expected in the coming months ahead of the summer fill reset in July.

In operations, Rentech completed is amsul debottlenecking project at its Pasadena, Texas, plant. Production capacity is now 2,100st/day (766,500st/yr), an increase of 20pc. See Fertilizer news for details.

Internationally, Chinese caprolactam production levels have been low, keeping amsul availability reduced with standard grade at $130/t fob for March. Sinopec’s Shijiazhuan factory will be down for three months while it adds a new unit. New amsul capacity will be 1.15mn t/yr.

ammonia

The winter weather-induced lull in the US ammonia market continues, with key suppliers focusing attention on the upward momentum in the global marketplace.

Prices are edging up, however, with the low-end of last week’s numbers difficult to find for spring prepay tons this week. East Corn Belt is revised upward to $550-585/st fot with at least one domestic producer now asking $590/st. Nebraska and Kansas production points are offering at $470-480/st and higher, pushing west Corn Belt tank prices (non-production sites) to range $510-550/st fot.

There are wide variations in price information across the Midwest, marking up to a $60-70/st difference for some regions, based on how fully committed some suppliers are and considering the individual supply/logistics situation. Ice on the river continues to hinder the transport of additional tons while suppliers say ammonia movement via pipeline is near capacity.

Meanwhile, growers in the Southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast have been able to move into the fields intermittently despite some bouts of adverse weather.

0

200

400

600

800

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

'000

t

Source: GTIS

2012-13 2013-14

US nh3 importS



A solid weather window allowing for ammonia injections is not expected for the Midwest before very late March at the earliest, though farmers are hoping to get into the fields as soon as possible. Some retailers report that farmers in the Northern Plains already have full nurse tanks and are fully prepared to inject once the opportunity arises and many are planning to pair a fast injection with short-season corn, in effort to avoid last year’s delayed spring complications.

In operations, the Pryor, Oklahoma, plant is understood to be in the process of restarting and while it is producing ammonia, buyers say it is not yet producing other upgraded products.

One of the top arguments by ammonia suppliers is that ammonia is at a record low value on a $/unit nitrogen basis relative to other nitrogen fertilizers. With crop prices rebounding, farmers will be incentivized to maximize yields.

The premium urea held over ammonia on average from July 2012 through the end of 2013 was $0.92/unit of N. That premium has increased dramatically since the end of 2013 as ammonia markets weakened on lackluster demand and oversupply while US demand for urea helped push urea pricing up. The premium of urea over ammonia in recent weeks has been greater than $4.20/unit of N.

Since the beginning of the year, the premium UAN has typically held over urea has been compressed on a $/unit nitrogen basis, using the midpoint of barge assessments.

From July 2012 through the end of 2013, UAN32 kept a premium average of $0.90/unit of N over urea. Recently, the $/unit premium has been just several cents as UAN prices increased while the bull-run on urea has lost some steam.

Koch’s Clipper Orion, which loaded in Yuzhny in February, is carrying 40,000t and should arrive in the coming weeks.

There is still a disconnect between the Tampa cfr price at $460/t cfr and the Yuzhny fob price, now above $440/t.

Yara loaded 12,00t ammonia on the Pertusola ex-Trinidad for Europe in late February and is intending to ship additional tonnes into Europe, given the arbitrage opportunity relative to prices in the region and limited North African supply availability.

US ammonia imports for July-December were down 15.3pc on the prior year period, attributable to reduced ammonia consumption on the back of lackluster global phosphate demand. Exacerbating the situation is that two phosphate production sites should return to production imminently and ammonia consumption will consequently increase. Mosaic’s Riverview production site in Florida has been down since mid-November and is expected to restart in April while PCS’s turnaround at Aurora in North Carolina, which started in January, should come back up by mid-March.

international ammonia highlights

▪ NF Trading sold 20,000t to a trader at $460/t fob for March loading. The Yuzhny lineup for February now includes 90,400t , sold in February but pushed into March. The March export lineup is provisionally 169,600 compared with February’s 265,300t. In operations, Ukraine production costs look set to increase on amended Russian gas deal to take effect in April.

▪ In Saudi Arabia, Sabic sold 23,0005 to Marubeni at $468/t fob, up $10/t on last business. Operations at the Ras Al Khair ammonia unit resumed 23 February after turnaround maintenance lasting two weeks.

▪ In Mexico, state-owned Pemex produced 97,000t of ammonia in January, up 1,000t from the same month in 2013. Calendar-year 2013 ammonia production was 922,000t, down slightly from 2012’s total at 939,000t. Pemex reports domestic ammonia sales totaled 91,900t in January, up from 80,700t a year ago. Total domestic sales in calendar-year 2013 were 842,000t.

▪ In company news, Pemex could start closing private-sector deals by the end of the year, if lawmakers approve secondary legislation needed to implement landmark energy reforms. By 21 March Pemex will present to the energy ministry a list of upstream areas it wants to keep in its portfolio ahead of a first-ever licensing round. Mexico is eager to tap its natural gas resources and replicate the reindustrialized success the US is enjoying in the wake of the shale boom, and industry participants expect this to eventually assist in increasing the country’s nitrogen fertilizer production.

4

6

8

10

12

Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Sep-13 Feb-14

$/un

it N

, bar

ge

Urea UAN NH3

nitrogen CompariSon



phoSphate

Now in the third week since the rally from the mid-$310s/st to mid-$490s/st fob subsided, the US phosphate market again moved marginally lower on thin volume. With bad weather (and perhaps indecision) stopping grower demand from trickling up the supply chain, suppliers across the Corn Belt and other key production regions are waiting for indications on planting decisions and fertilizer budgets. Although DAP and MAP barge buying is at a near-standstill, low producer stocks and uncertainty around imports are supporting prices. Meanwhile, TSP is at an usually steep discount to DAP, which could make it a compelling alternative to conventional phosphate products in regions planting a high proportion of beans.

Inability to cover replacement cost remains a key concern

for would-be barge buyers. With prompt DAP barges offered at $485/st fob, and true warehouse transaction levels likely around $510/st, suppliers are barely in a position to cover the cost of moving new tons from a barge into a warehouse—much less earn a margin to make it worth the risk. Before significant barge buying can resume, retailer demand must support further warehouse price increases.

Arkansas River

UpperMississippi

River

LowerMississippi

River

Ohio

Riv

erIllinoisRiver

All freight points are pricedfrom origin of mile 90-184 of Lower Mississippi River

Cincinnati/Jeffersonville

fot 515.00

freight 15.00-15.50

inola/Catoosa

fot 515.00

freight 17.00

St louis

fot 515.00

freight 11.25

twin Cities

fot 515.00

freight

nola

fob 487.50

Dap priCeS anD Barge Freight From nola ($/St)

phosphate barge business

price in $/st fob nola

number of barges loading product

483 1 FH March domestic DAP

483 1 FH March domestic DAP

485 1 prompt domestic DAP

488 1 loaded domestic MAP

490 1 prompt domestic MAP

494 1 loaded domestic MAP

US phosphate import trackerarrival origin Dap est. ’000t map est. ’000t Vessel trader Comments

Mar Russia 0 25 Trammo

Mar China 0 30 unknown

Mar Morocco 27.5 27.5 Koch Delayed, timing uncertain

Mar Morocco 10 20 Helm Delayed, timing uncertain

Mar Russia 15 15 EuroChem

Mar Morocco 0 0 Helm 25kt TSP



Alternatively, a $15/st drop in barge prices with warehouse values static would likely bring suppliers back into the market too.

TSP has emerged as a noteworthy alternative to DAP and MAP in regions planting more beans and/or where ammonia applications have taken care of nitrogen needs. TSP typically trades at around a $50/st discount to DAP at the barge and warehouse levels. TSP barges are currently discussed in $380-385/st fob Nola range, implying around twice the normal discount.

At current prices, TSP’s $8.32/unit P205 is below that of DAP. Still, the economics of TSP remain unfavorable if the ultimate buyer needs additional nitrogen. A blend of urea (at $400/st) and TSP that matches DAP’s specs would cost about $540/st, $55/st more than DAP.

Production of ammonium polyphosphate (APP) starter solution is ramping up ahead of planting season, and some suppliers have taken positions anticipating strong warehouse demand. One supplier noted buying 10-34-0 from a reactor-owner at $430/st delivered Midwest. Warehouse prices—for sale to retailers—in key production regions are around $465/st fot.

After a light start to the first quarter, phosphate imports will jump in March, although timing remains uncertain. If Helm and Koch’s Moroccan vessels load over the next few days, March will see phosphate imports of 53,000t DAP and 118,000t MAP. While much of Koch’s tonnes are earmarked for warehouse placement, much of the other 115,000t phosphate imports may be sold in the spot market.

On the export front, Mosaic has sold 10,000t DAP to a Latin American market at $500/t fob Tampa for March shipment.

DapThe DAP Nola barge assessment is reduced to $480-485/st fob. Trades concluded at $483/st fob for first half March loading and $485/st fob for prompt loading. Offers were heard as low as $480/st fob Nola for full March, which sets the bottom of the range.

Warehouse prices are discussed in the $510-520/st range, up $5/st from last week. Product movement has been limited owing to the poor weather, but suppliers are slowly moving offers higher to better account for replacement cost.

mapAfter weeks of little liquidity, MAP trading picked up this week and at a notable premium to DAP. Trades concluded at $488/st and $494/st fob Nola for loaded barges at Nola, and $490/st for prompt loading late week. Accordingly, the MAP Nola barge assessment is revised to $488-494/st fob.

A MAP trade was reported late last week at $482/st fob Nola. This business was excluded from the range as inconsistent with prevailing market levels.

The MAP warehouse prices were also discussed marginally higher this week at $515-525/st fot. There were some reports of certain warehouses offering MAP at a discount to DAP, but most suppliers have indicated a modest premium.

international phosphate highlights

▪ In Morocco, reports indicate the port of Jorf Lasfar was closed due to inclement weather on 3 March, but reopened after a day or so.

▪ Part of the CF Industries DAP cargo sold to China in late 2013 has been re-exported to Latin America. Reports indicate a 20,000t sale to a buyer in Argentina via Ameropa

11,000

11,350

11,700

12,050

12,400

12,750

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13

'000

st

'000

st

Source: TFI

DAP, MAP producer inventory

Trailing 12-month producer dissapearance

inVentorY VS trailing 12 monthS DiSSapearanCe

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13

'000

st

Source: TFI

DAP/MAP producer inventory 24-month average

Stocks/trailing 12-month dissapearance

inVentorY VS trailing 12 monthS DiSappearanCe



at $525/t cfr. China also booked two other 20,000t cargoes to Latin America with a third cargo possible.

▪ Helm and Ameropa both have March cargoes of PhosAgro MAP heading to Brazil. Sales have been reported in the $520-525/t cfr range.

▪ A delegation from China visited India this week to discuss volume agreements ahead of the low export tax window opening 15 May. Price ideas are around $450/t cfr India, well below the value implied from China’s $460-495/t fob.

potaSh

Prices are flat and the market thinly traded as growers await spring weather and application season. The complications on rail and barge logistics remain the key focus for potash suppliers. Of note, at least one Canadian producer is further reducing operations temporarily to offset the situation as inventory builds without the arrival of necessary rail cars to ship product out.

Delays of three/four weeks and longer are expected on rail shipments and, as a result, buyers have lost interest in buying rail tons for fear they will not arrive in time. One producer says only 60pc of its expected rail cars have arrived on time for loading and shipment out to the US. Latest asking prices across the Midwest are $375-380/st rail delivered. See Fertilizer news for details on rail service delays.

The logistics congestion has translated into additional concern over whether this would impede shipment to the ports for export from Canada and help tighten the global market – which has only just recently found a price floor on the settlement of Chinese supply contracts last month. Latest Vancouver prices for standard MOP were $270-315/t fob.

Retailers say there has been more offtake in portions of the eastern Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio. This is widely regarded the start of a “first wave” of demand pull, for which there is sufficient inventory currently in the distribution system. However, terminal operators say the congested logistics, particularly rail, could threaten to tighten the market if farmer demand results in a strong “second wave,” though this would likely not occur until April/May.

There are limited Russian tons on offer by barge as the February arrival is understood to have been placed elsewhere, though another vessel should arrive in March. North American product, however, is offered as high as $340/st fob Nola, as suppliers aim to keep pace with what the posted $370/st fot terminal price would imply.

Retailers say $350/st fot prices are still widely available in southern markets, across the Delta and in a few spots within the Midwest, but generally these low numbers are increasingly hard to find as there is more buy-in at the $370/st level.

In company news, PotashCorp (PCS) stock prices soared during the week, approaching close to $40/share. These levels had last been seen before the July 2013 announcement of Uralkali’s exit from the BPC marketing arm. While political tensions in the FSU have supported the stock price rally, there have been no indications that potash production or export from the region would be impacted.

Also buoying Wall Street sentiment is the speculation of a reunion between BPC and Uralkali. This has been dismissed by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, though the president said he was open to having talks.

IC Potash completed its environmental impact statement for the Ochoa SOP project in southeast New Mexico. The statement was filed in the federal register on 28 February and has entered a 30-day availability period, after which the US Department of Interior Bureau of Land Management will

0

1

2

3

4

5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E*

mn

t

*based on confirmed supply contracts Source: GTIS

Russia Canada Belarus Israel Jordan Germany

China 1h mop importS

potashCorp projected 2014 operating rates mn t

mine nameplate capacity

2013 operational capcacity

2014 operational capacity

Allan, SK 3.0 2.5 2.5

Cory, SK 3.0 2.6 1.7

Lanigan, SK 3.8 3.4 1.7

Patience Lake, SK 0.3 0.3 0.3

Rocanville, SK 3.0 2.8 2.6

New Brunswick 0.8 0.8 0.2

Total 13.9 12.4 9.0

Source: PotashCorp



publish a Record of Decision, expected in April. The process falls under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, which established a national framework for protecting the environment.

IC Potash plans to produce SOP from the Ochoa polyhalite deposit, with expected production capacity estimated at 714,000 t/yr, for a minimum of 50 years. Product mix is expected to be 229,400 t/yr standard SOP, 385,000 t/yr granular SOP and 100,000 t/yr soluble SOP.

The global SOP market is 5.5mn t/yr. The company expects its SOP production cost to be around $214/t. In 2012, Yara invested C$40mn and committed to purchasing 30pc of the company’s production over a 15-year period. The company expects to begin production in initial production in 2016 and ramp up to full production in 2017.

In operations, PCS projects it will produce 9mn t of potash in 2014, up from 7.8mn t produced in 2013, but still only 65pc of its 13.9mn t overall nameplate capacity, according to the company’s public filings.

Operational capability for two of PCS’ biggest Saskatchewan mines—Lanigan and Cory—is pegged at 1.7mn t each because of reduced production rates and workforce reductions the company announced in December. Lanigan and Cory have nameplate capacities of 3.8mn t/yr and 3mn t/yr, respectively. The mines could increase production if more favorable market conditions arrive.

PCS, the largest North American producer, cut back on output in 2012 and 2013 amid declining domestic and international potash prices, which were further exacerbated by the July 2013 breakup of the Uralkali-Belaruskali exporting arrangement. Nola barge prices fell from around $390/st fob to bottoming out in January this year around $310/st. Of note is that prices had already been trending downward from July 2012’s $480/st fob Nola high because of weak demand and global oversupply.

international potash highlights

▪ In Canadian exports, last week PCS said that Canpotex had recently booked additional cargoes of granular MOP into Brazil at $360/t cfr for April. Meanwhile, Uralkali is looking to book granular MOP for late March at $350/t cfr.

▪ There is more optimism that new Indian supply contracts could be agreed by the end of the month. The recommended cut to the MOP subsidy down to Rupees 9.300 ($150/t) is likely to be approved soon, but the government is expected to keep the maximum retail price of MOP

sustained at present levels of Rupees 16,000/t ($257.40/t), so farmer prices should not change. With new contract prices expected far lower than last year, this should offset the difference.

▪ Brazil’s Sergipe state is looking to pass legislation by mid-March to amend the state tax regime so Vale can move forward on its $4bn Carnalita potash project with an estimated 1.2mn t/yr capacity. The project was suspended in late February because of tax uncertainty. A draft bill has already been submitted to the legislature and a vote is expected after Carnival holiday recess on 10 March.

▪ Chile-based SQM reported earnings for the year ending December 2013 at $467.1mn, down 24pc on the prior year. The company said the weakness of KCL pricing during 2013 accounted for the drop in profits, though the impact of lower prices was partially offset by higher MOP and SOP volumes sold totaling 1.44t, an increase of 19pc year-over-year. In 2013, SQM completed additional works at its expansion in the Salar de Atacama project which should increase its KCL capacity by the end of 2014. Current capacity is 1.3mn t/yr potassium with an additional 840,000 t/yr potassium nitrate. SQM accounts for 48pc of the world market share for potassium nitrate.

SUlFUr anD SUlFUriC aCiD

SulfurThe domestic sulfur market remains balanced and while tightness in supply on a global basis has supported prices, there are signs of buyer resistance driven by an uncertain phosphate outlook. This is occurring at a time when domestic market participants are engaging in increased speculation about the impact on the second quarter Tampa sulfur contract price, the benchmark for North America.

An increase from the first quarter price of $110/lt del is widely anticipated given the surge in global sulfur prices since the price was settled in the first half of January. With still a few weeks to go before Tampa second quarter negotiations should commence, it is tough to call how much of an increase the US market is in store for upon settlement. For the time being, market participants will continue to focus on developments in the offshore market amid a balanced domestic market.

international sulfur highlights

▪ In China, some new deals were done this week at $215/t cfr ex-Middle East, including purchases by major end-users. Suppliers are reporting this level to be a price ceiling,



with several buyers now bidding at $210/t cfr and below. Buyers are now looking for more crushed lump material as a cheaper option. Inventory levels at Chinese ports have risen this week back up to 1.36 million t.

Sulfuric acidWhile some suppliers of offshore sulfuric acid continue to aim for prices in the US as high as the low-$50s/t cfr, business concluded in Brazil this week will set the tone for

next business to be concluded in the US. In Brazil, a Mosaic purchase tender was awarded to a European smelter in the high-$40s/t cfr to low-$50s/t cfr equating to a $0-5/t fob northwest Europe netback. Freight from northwest Europe to the US Gulf is currently assessed at $35-39/t with a $0-5/t fob netback, this would equate to a sales price of $35-44/t cfr, in line with the assessed price of $35-45/t cfr.

In the domestic market, both suppliers and consumers continue to grapple with delivery delays related to constraints on logistics because of winter weather.

international sulfuric acid highlights

▪ In Brazil, Mosaic accepted a purchase price close to $50/t cfr from a European smelter, equating to a netback of $0-5/t fob Europe.

▪ Buyers in Chile remain comfortable despite the absence of notable supply from South Korea and Japan. The annual contract price in Chile is assessed at $60-69/t cfr compared with current freight costs from South Korea/Japan to Chile at $68-75/t.

hhh

50

100

150

200

250


China cfr $/t Vancouver fob $/tBrazil cfr $/t Tampa del $/lt

gloBal SUlFUr priCeS

Fertilizer newS

manatee County renews mosaic permits Manatee County, Florida, commissioners voted last week to grant Mosaic five-year operating permits for the Southeast Tract, Four Corners, and Altman Tract phosphate rock mines.

Operating permits have been a contentious issue in Florida. Phosphate industry opponents have cited the environmental disruption and excessive water use of the mines. Meanwhile, Mosaic has stepped up its reclamation efforts to prove phosphate mining does not cause irreversible damage.

The commissioners noted that Mosaic has fulfilled all its obligations under the master mine plan.

Nameplate capacity of Mosaic’s Florida phosphate mines is 16mn t per year, according to the company’s annual report. In 2013, the mines produced 15.4mn t of 29.5pc average P2O5 content rock, up from 12.1mn t and 11.5mn t in 2012 and 2011, respectively.

Mosaic’s probable phosphate reserves for active mines are 137mn t, about eight years’ supply at current production rates. The company has another 395mn t of probable reserves in the planned mines of Ona and DeSoto.

rentech increases pasadena amsul output Rentech Nitrogen has completed an ammonium sulfate production debottlenecking project at its Pasadena, Texas, plant, that increases production by 20pc.

The plant is producing at the targeted rate of 2,100st/day (766,500st/yr), up from the previous nameplate capacity of 1,750st/day (639,000st/yr). Rentech began the expansion in December.

Rentech said the plant’s reliability and the quality of product has improved as a result, and noted increased sales in 2014 compared to 2013. The Pasadena plant produces ammonium sulfate, ammonium thiosulfate and sulfuric acid.

“We expect work completed during the debottlenecking project to drive lasting improvements in the plant’s operating performance, reliability, and product quality,” president John Diesch said. “We are seeing repeat customers after our first full year of production, and as a result of better liquidity in the domestic market, we are contracting sales at a faster pace compared to last year.”

Houston/Pasadena ammonium sulfate prices have been steady at $245-260/st fot since 23 January, while demand for the product has picked up in Texas, where weather has allowed some corn planting to begin.

analysis - CF bets big on n marketCF Industries will nearly triple its spending this year to $2.5bn as it focuses on expanding nitrogen fertilizer capacity.

The US nitrogen market is evolving from import



dependence toward greater self-sufficiency amid cheap domestic natural gas feedstock. CF is leading the way with nearly 6mn short tons (st) of planned capacity additions scheduled for service by the end of 2016. Implicit in CF’s near $4bn new investment is a bet on continued healthy farm economics and low natural gas prices.

CF’s expansion projects under way at the Donaldsonville, Louisiana, and Port Neal, Iowa, nitrogen facilities, will increase annual gross ammonia capacity by a combined 2.1mn st, urea by 2mn-2.7mn st, and UAN 32 by up to 1.8mn st, depending on product mix, according to the company’s annual report.

The final cost is expected to be $3.8bn, of which CF has spent less than $500mn to date. Although this plan has been in place since the Board of Director’s approval in November 2012, the real spending starts now.

Capacity additions of this magnitude will single-handedly change domestic and international trade dynamics. Based on The Fertilizer Institute’s (TFI) June 2013 Semiannual Operating Rates report, domestic ammonia, urea, and UAN domestic production capacity will increase by 19pc, 71pc, and 16pc, respectively, assuming CF elects the most UAN-heavy product mix. Were CF to produce the maximum amount of urea, US capacity of that product would nearly double.

Once online, the expansions should chip away at the US’ nitrogen fertilizer trade deficit. In 2000, the US imported about 4.3mn st more urea than it exported. By 2013, this number had increased to over 6.5mn st. Increased imports were driven in part by the 35pc decline in domestic capacity from 2005 to 2013 as producers converted urea plants to UAN. CF’s expansions could cut the current trade deficit by more than a third.

Ammonia’s trade balance has been at a 6mn-7mn deficit for the last two years. CF’s planned 2.1mn st of additional capacity should have a direct impact on the need for imports, particularly as much of the new product from Donaldsonville is already spoken for from Mosaic, a buyer that has often imported.

CF entered into an agreement with Mosaic in tandem with its phosphate business sale to supply 600,000-800,000st/yr of ammonia with pricing based on the cost of natural gas. Since pricing fluctuates with the feedstock cost, CF has higher than usual visibility into the profitability of this arrangement.

The US UAN trade balance has increased from a deficit of over 3.3mn st in 2011 to 2.6mnst in 2013. Domestic capacity has increased by 3mn st since 2005. The deficit should continue to shrink with CF’s 1.8mn st expansion.

With CF’s new production and countless other proposed domestic nitrogen projects, fertilizer joins a host of other manufacturing industries that have gained a competitive

advantage from the proliferation of shale gas. Natural gas represents about 80pc of the cost of production for ammonia, the feedstock for all nitrogen fertilizer products. Natural gas prices are the reason for and biggest risk to CF’s bet on the US nitrogen market.

In 2016, the year CF expects its expansions to begin producing, the Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $4.41/mmBtu (nominal dollars) according to the US Energy Information Administration, up 20pc from $3.66/mmBtu in 2013. Although production is forecast to rise 20pc by 2020, natural gas prices are expected to reach $5/mmBtu—in part because of increasing liquid natural gas exports that will shift the trade balance to positive territory in 2018.

For CF’s investment to perform as planned, US natural gas prices must stay below those of key nitrogen product exporters like China and Russia. For now, that thesis remains intact with natural gas costs in the US less than half of those in Europe and in Asia-Pacific.

For now the US remains heavily reliant on nitrogen fertilizer from abroad. The urea import lineup is at around 4.5mn st for July 2013-April 2014, below 5.5mn st for the same period last year.

Concerns about lower imports and a possible shortage have driven prompt urea prices to $430/st fob New Orleans, well above international benchmarks. Producers abroad have the opportunity to profit from bringing more urea to the US.

Barge volumes seen down 19pc by 2017US dry bulk fertilizer barge shipments will drop to 9.3mn short tons in 2017 from an expected 11.5mn st this year because of expanded domestic fertilizer production and a subsequent decrease in imports, according to American Commercial Lines.

Lower prices for natural gas, the primary feedstock and cost for nitrogen fertilizer, coupled with healthy margins on elevated fertilizer prices have driven greenfield and brownfield expansion investment in the fertilizer sector since 2011-12. Several key projects, such as CF Industries’ capacity expansions in Louisiana and Iowa and OCI’s greenfield Iowa Fertilizer Company venture should affect domestic production capacity by 2016-17.

“Demand [for fertilizer] is not changing, but trade flows and transport modes are,” said one barge industry representative at the World Trade and Transport Conference in New Orleans.

A few grains shippers expressed concern that this new distribution pattern could further strain the seasonal peak periods for moving fertilizers by rail and truck. Additionally, with more domestic production of UAN, a liquid nitrogen product, several industry sources expect more demand



for liquid barges which will conflict with the movement of petrochemical and petroleum products.

“Logically you would think we would have to increase the [freight] rates for northbound fertilizer movements in order to make that route profitable for us,” said one grains and fertilizer barge supplier. “Really, though, it is a matter of being at the right place and the right time and the seasonality of the grains movement will be much more key for us than ever before in the October-March period.”

Demand for farm products transported by barge should increase from less than 60mn st in 2013 to over 70mn st by 2017 as yields continue to increase with technology and efficiency gains, according to a presentation by American Commercial Lines marketing director Dave Miller.

The amount of coal shipped by barge is also expected to sharply decrease in the coming years, Miller said. Coal accounts for 31pc of total commodity barge volumes, but natural gas prices are putting pressure on coal-fired generation. An estimated 14.8mn st of coal is consumed by river-served plants that will retire, so shipments by barge will drop to around 159mn st in 2017 from an expected 169mn st in this year.

Overall dry bulk barge tonnage is expected to increase 5pc to around 366mn st in 2017 from 348mn st in 2013, driven mostly by agricultural products like corn and soybeans as well as steel and steel products.

Projected increases in overall volume transported keeps the infrastructure policy agenda in clear focus for 2014.

“The main concern for the barge industry now is securing the necessary funding from the government to support river infrastructure development,” said captain Michael Lorino, president of the Louisiana River Pilots Association, during a panel discussion.

The industry continues to press Congress for increased appropriations through the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund with an emphasis on growing port capabilities because of the Panama Canal expansion.

Despite the ongoing infrastructure concerns, shippers say that the long-term viability of river transport is still strong given that barge transport remains more energy efficient and less polluting than rail or truck.

CSx warns of weather delaysEastern US railroad CSX warned that its customers to expect delays even as it says efforts to overcome the effects of severe winter weather are “showing some progress.”

CSX said in a customer service advisory that it had made “significant progress” in reducing its traffic backlog, especially through the Chicago gateway, following last weekend’s winter storm, and that it has “kept all special actions in place.” The railroad continues to experience

congestion at processing yards in Chicago, Indianapolis and Albany, New York, because of traffic surges from western railroads and CSX-originating trains.

Service areas most severely affected by last weekend’s storm were Indianapolis; Nashville, Tennessee; Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio; Baltimore and Philadelphia, which were affected by ice and up to 10 inches of new snow in some places.

BnSF comments on service problemsBNSF chief executive Matt Rose said that his western railroad is not providing adequate service to its shippers but said that he expects capital spending will help resolve issues that have dogged customers in recent months.

He said system delays could be explained by a stronger-than-expected grain harvest last fall and an early and bitter winter that cut short capital projects in BNSF’s northern region.

Rose asked participants at the Southwest Association of Rail Shippers conference in San Antonio, Texas, for patience as the railroad seeks to resolve issues across its network. Service significantly deteriorated in the fourth quarter of 2013 as crude shippers boosted volumes as they sought to take advantage of widening spreads and agricultural shippers ramped up traffic to west coast export ports as the harvest over-performed BNSF’s expectations.

Rose dismissed the notion that Berkshire Hathaway-owned BNSF values crude traffic more than other business, saying that crude represents only 3.5pc of all traffic the railroad moves and that its farm shippers have built up their volumes over the course of a century.

Delays and congestion on BNSF’s main intermodal route across Kansas and Missouri through Kansas City and its primary coal corridor across Iowa and Nebraska should ease when the severe winter ends, but issues on the northern tier will persist. Rose did not offer a timeline for when shippers across North Dakota will finally see relief.

Crude impacts grain rail shipmentsRising US crude-by-rail shipments may limit farm shippers’ ability to move corn, soybean, wheat and other products to the Pacific Northwest for years to come following a brutal 2013-2014 winter.

The reason is that rail investments are costly and it can sometimes take companies 10-15 years to make their money back, Soy Transportation Coalition (STC) executive director Mike Steenhoek said. Volume growth driven by booming crude production could outpace railroads’ investments in their networks if the payback period remains that long.

Agricultural shippers that are typically not prioritized



over those moving crude because of the bulk nature of their product, could fall by the wayside, Steenhoek said. Corn and soybean shipments to northwest export terminals now take 18 to 22 days, Steenhoek said. Normally the trip takes 12 days.

An extremely cold winter, a late harvest and the Bakken crude-by-rail boom is congesting traffic on northern lines. It is unlikely the corn harvest this year will stress rail infrastructure as much as it did last year, and the weather will eventually improve as spring sets in. But shippers are worried the congestion will not.

Shippers remain skeptical of the railroads’ promises of infrastructure investments, and most do not believe Congress or the Surface Transportation Board (STB) can address the capacity issues through legislation or regulation.

Capitol hill continues chemical safety pushSenator David Vitter (Louisiana), the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), invited The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) to testify at a chemical safety hearing on 6 March.

The EPW hearing, titled “Preventing Potential Chemical Threats and Improving Safety: Oversight of the President’s Executive Order on Improving Chemical Facility Safety and Security,” aims to continue monitoring regulatory developments after the deadly explosion at a fertilizer facility in West, Texas, in April 2013. President Barack Obama issued the executive order in August 2013 to improve the coordination of agencies with regulatory authority over chemical facilities in the US.

Meanwhile, the House Homeland Security Subcommittee held a hearing on Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) on 27 February, calling for a two-year extension of the CFATS program and providing additional guidance to the Department of Homeland Security on chemical security issues. The bill will be marked-up in march and move to the full-committee. TFI has issued full support for the legislation.

Vilsack comments on farm bill, ag industryUS Department of Agriculture (USDA) secretary Tom Vilsack offered an optimistic view of the agricultural economy and reinforced expectations for the implementation of the recently-passed farm bill during the Commodities Classic conference in San Antonio on 28 February.

Vilsack assured the industry that farmers would be paid what they were owed, now that the highly contentious 2013 farm bill had finally been signed into law on 7 February. By year’s end, the USDA also hopes to achieve greater credit opportunities and easier access to credit for the industry, particularly beginning farmers.

Vilsack reminded that there are some programs that continue from previous farm bills but that there are also new programs that will be implemented. Importantly, the USDA will ramp up efforts in 2014 to clarify benefits afforded to agricultural producers via the Market Assistance Loan Program (MALP). In the spring and early summer, the USDA will implement the MALPs, dairy program, crop insurance and sugar program.

A clear message was sent to livestock operators, emphasizing that as of 15 April they will be able to apply for assistance to offset losses incurred because of disasters. These programs had expired under the previous farm bill and were not available to livestock producers the last two years.

The USDA also plans to promote the export of American biofuel and this will begin with a trade mission to China scheduled for later this spring.

Because of the delay in passing the 2013 farm bill, Vilsack noted that many of the programs will only come to fruition in 2015 with this year used to lay important groundwork.

But the underlying fundamentals of the industry itself are also very positive, despite program delays.

Vilsack said recent agricultural census data is encouraging showing the number of farmers under the age of 35 increasing for the first time in several years. Vilsack added that the US is possibly experiencing the strongest agricultural economy in its history, with the uptrend expected to continue.

lake erie report calls for fertilizer bansA report by the International Joint Commission (IJC) released last week recommends that Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York and Ontario should ban the application of phosphorous fertilizers on frozen or snow-covered ground in order to reduce runoff that is contributing to algal blooms in Lake Erie.

The commission, a US and Canada joint agency with the goal of protecting quality of water bodies the countries’ share, believes that phosphorous runoff from agricultural sources is one of the main causes of lower water quality in the lake. IJC recommended that Ohio and Michigan place Lake Erie on the impaired waters list, which would invoke a total maximum daily load plan to be overseen by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The IJC particularly focused on the Maumee river watershed, which leads into the western portion of the lake via Toledo, Ohio. The commission recommended a 37pc reduction in dissolved reactive phosphorous (DRP) for the spring season (March-June) from the 2007-2012 average.

In order to enforce stricter fertilizer application rules,



IJC suggests that governments link crop insurance payments with conservation performance. The IJC also recommends that Ohio, Pennsylvania and Ontario ban the sale and use of phosphorous fertilizers for lawn care except for on newly-planted lawns in their first growing season or in cases where soil testing shows a need for the nutrient.

SJS dedicates cranes, opens new officeMidstream stevedoring company Saint James Stevedoring (SJS) welcomed nearly 200 guests as executives dedicated two new cranes on 28 February.

The two new cranes were dedicated to and named after long-time employees Tara Sevario and Randy Wintz. SJS owns 10 cranes, making it the largest floating fleet of Terex/Gottwald cranes in the world. Each Terex/Gottwald HPK crane has a gross lift of 63-100st. The cranes have one-minute cycle times, with a capacity of 1200 st/hour, depending on cargo type.

The company also opened its new Romeville office in Convent, Louisiana, on 24 February, combining two previously separate offices. The new office, purchased from St James Parish Schools, is a refurbishment of the Romeville Elementary School, which was closed in 2012 because of a demographic shift resulting in decreased student-age population.

The repurposed building was described by attendees as “a transformation of cafeteria into high-tech command center” with the large open floor plan allowing employees full view of a video wall where SJS monitors all its stevedoring operations in real-time.

SJS was founded in 1985 and moves an average of 16-18mn st/yr dry bulk commodities between vessels and barges. In 2013, around 9mn st of fertilizer moved via the Mississippi river, of which two-thirds were moved by SJS.

Dupont launches new farm serviceDuPont Pioneer announced on 27 February the launch of Encirca services, geared to increase productivity and profitability of grower operations.

DuPont executives outlined the company’s growth strategy in its agriculture-to-food value chain, focusing on science-driven segments during the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2014 Global Agriculture Conference, highlighting Encirca. The new division will be delivered through local certified agents working directly with farmers to customize brand-neutral recommendations for local challenges.

Encirca View will be the first offering under the new services umbrella, launching this month, giving growers a free mobile-enabled information platform.

A fee-based serviced called Encirca Yield will launch

later this year to help growers assess, plan and analyze crop inputs such as seed, nitrogen/fertility and water. Additional services will be launched in 2015.

The Encirca service is expected to bring in $500mn/yr revenue for Pioneer within the next decade.

mosaic introduces boron-enhanced mopMosaic has added to its growing line of specialty fertilizers with the introduction of Aspire, a boron-enhanced muriate of potash (MOP) granular product.

The fertilizer features 58pc potassium oxide content, slightly lower than typical potash, and 0.5pc boron, which is the second most deficient crop nutrient worldwide behind zinc, according to Mosaic. Boron aids in plant’s structure, reproduction, seed development and ability to withstand excessive heat and drought.

Aspire combines potash and boron within the same granule, ensuring even distribution unlike traditional blended fertilizers.

Aspire is the latest line of micronutrient fertilizers offered by Mosaic, joining MicroEssentials and K-Mag.

agrium rebrands precision ag offeringAgrium is rebranding its precision agriculture offering as Echelon.

Formerly NutriScription HD, the precision agriculture offerings are provided through its North American retail unit Crop Production Services and have provided services to over 15mn acres throughout the region.

Agrium says Echelon maintains its best-in-class solutions for soil sampling, variable rate nutrient and seeding recommendations, yield data analysis, weather monitoring, field scouting and tissue sampling, aerial imagery and record and reporting.

wilbur-ellis partners with agriFliteWilbur-Ellis is partnering with AgriFlite Services, an aerial application business in Indiana, to expand its services to the market.

Both companies will coordinate efforts to provide growers with support in purchasing, storage, mixing and application of crop protection products, utilizing Wilbur-Ellis’ product line in addition to its safety and regulatory expertise.

AgriFlite, founded in 1973, is the largest aerial application business in the Midwest.

Wilbur-Ellis, founded in 1921, is a leading international marketer and distributor of agricultural products, animal feed and specialty chemicals. It continues to have the

illuminating the marketsFertilizer


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largest aerial application fleet in the US and operates 170 branch locations throughout the US.

Bionitrogen signs supply, study agreementsBioNitrogen signed a 25-year supply agreement with BioResource Management (BRM) to supply feedstock, feasibility studies and consulting services.

BRM will provide biomass supply services to BioNitrogen’s initial plant in Florida. BRM will supply around 350,000 st/yr of biomass and manage the supply chain and logistics.

In 2013, BioNitrogen said it would build five biomass-fueled urea plants in Louisiana. The proposed projects in Pointe Coupee Parish will cost $150mn-$250mn each, and produce a combined 621,000 st/yr of urea, or 124,200 st/yr each.

BRM already manages between 2-3mn st/yr biomass.

koch adds execs to specialty fertilizersKoch Agronomic Services (KAS) named Edmund Carmody as director of sales, turf and ornamental. In the role, Carmody will focus on aligning sales and channel partners as well as providing education and support for continued demand growth for enhanced efficiency fertilizers.

Carmody has been working in the specialty fertilizer market since the mid-1990s. He previously worked for the Scotts Company, Pursell Technologies and Great Salt Lake Minerals.

KAS also added Shelly Coleman-Martins as the new marketing and communications manager. In the role, Coleman-Martins will drive decision making and promotional efforts for the turf and ornamental product line. Previously, Coleman-Martins was director of global services at The Coleman Company.

Sumitomo Chemical chief Donaldson retiresSumitomo Chemical chief executive Michael Donaldson will retire at the end of March after 14 years with the company.

Donaldson, who also served as president of affiliated biosciences company Valent USA, will continue to hold an advisory role with the company’s health and crop sciences divisions.

Andy Lee, currently the executive vice president and chief executive of Valent, will assume Donaldson’s role.

Tokyo-based Sumitomo Chemical produces petrochemicals, health and crop science products, and pharmaceuticals.

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