© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2016

Highlights from the IEA-EBRD collaborative project to assess clean

energy technology markets - a case study on Belarus

Simone Landolina & Sonja Lekovic

22 June 2016, Budapest

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA-EBRD collaboration under FINTECC: scope and aim

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Mongolia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

ETC

Egypt

Jordan

Morocco

Tunisia SE

MED

Kazakhstan

+

Two mains components:

1. Policies for fostering deployment of clean energy technologies

2. Methodology for assessing clean energy technology markets

Regional focus of collaboration: ETC and SEMED

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Events

23 Sept 2014: Expert stakeholder event (Paris) • Hosted by the IEA

• 45 participants, primarily exchange of views among int. and reg. orgs

15-16 June 2015: Event for SEMED and ETC policy experts (Istanbul) • Hosted by the Turkish Ministry of Energy and

Natural Resources

• 75+ participants from 13 countries;

• 7 int. organisations (IEA, FAO, IRENA, UNDP, UNECE, UNESCWA, and UNFCCC);

• 3 multilateral development banks (EBRD, EIB and IFC) and 2 development agencies (GIZ and USAid)

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Key outputs

Policy paper (June 2015)

Methodology paper (June 2016)

Pilot studies: Belarus, Morocco & Kazakhstan (June - July 2016)

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The Clean Energy Technology Assessment Methodology (CETAM)

3. Monitoring2. Metric formulation

1. Prioritisation 3. Monitoring2. Metric formulation

Figure X: Key outputs at each step

Ren

ewa

ble

ener

gy

Ener

gy

effi

cien

cy

Priority resources

Priority RETsPriority

ratings for RETs

RET penetration metrics

RET penetration levels and

trends

RET costs

RET enabling environment

Priority energy using

sectorsPriority EETs

Subsector energy use indicators

EET penetration

metrics

EET penetration levels and

trends

Priority ratings for

EETs

EET enabling environment

A 3-step process:

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Belarus - Renewables

Prioritisation of renewable energy technologies

• Resources Vast bioenergy resources - > 6 Mtoe

Other resources reasonable, insufficient CSP

• Cost of generation IEA estimates show that wood and landfill gas based generation is

cost competitive, while solar applications are less attractive

• Strategic priorities Energy security and reducing GHG

• Market opportunities Grid-connected electricity, renewable heat, and biofuels in transport

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Belarus - Renewables

Matrix of priority indicators for renewable energy technologies, Belarus

Technology Resource Strategic drivers

Market opportunities

Technology maturity

Cost Priority score

Rooftop PV Ready for deployment

Large-scale solar PV Need further evaluation

Large-scale CSP n/a n/a n/a n/a No potential

Solar water heaters Ready for deployment

Solar space heaters Ready for deployment

Solar heat for industry / services

Need further evaluation

Wind Need further evaluation

Biomass Ready for deployment

Biogas Ready for deployment

Geothermal n/a Need further evaluation

Hydro Ready for deployment

Notes: Star ratings are out of four stars, with representing a low score and representing an exceptionally good score. Technology maturity represents the global level of maturity.

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Belarus – Biomass example

Bioenergy penetration indicators, Belarus, 2014

Bioenergy cost indicators, Belarus, 2014 Cost indicators are not available from the government

More detailed costs assessment necessary to provide a cost/remuneration analysis and determine the level of maturity in the market

Biomass Biogas Biodiesel Share of national total attributed to

biomass, biogas and biodiesel Production (ktoe) 1 399.1 8.9 24.6 39%

Electricity from co-generation (GWh) 84 32 0 0.5%

Heat from co-generation (TJ) 2 465 111 0 1.7%

Heat from heat plants 17 240 0 0 16.6%

Consumption (ktoe)

Industry 49.1 0.2 0 1%

Agriculture 40.6 0 22 5.5%

Commercial 219.4 0 0 9.4%

Residential 378.2 0 0 7.7%

Transport 0 0 2.6 <0.1%

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Belarus – Monitoring

Monitoring progress towards targets

• Attainable targets Technology neutral

9% of total energy supply from renewables by 2035;

2.6 TWh electricity generation from renewables generation by 2035;

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035

MW

Biomass Wind Biogas Hydro Solar Geothermal Industrial waste Wind announced Solar announced

2020 target

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035

MWh

2035 target

2030 target

2025 target

2020 target

Tracking progress toward renewable electricity capacity and generation targets, 2015-35

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Belarus - Renewables

Conclusions: • Strengths include:

Significant resource potential.

Improved legislative framework, relevant to foreign investments.

Generous FITs and attractive costs for certain technologies (particularly bioenergy from wood residues and landfill gas).

Comprehensive data on market penetration.

• Suggested areas for improvement include: Improving the enabling environment for renewables, by removing

or increasing quotas for grid-connected renewables to 2018.

Increasing public awareness of renewables potential, particularly in state-owned enterprises where potential for smaller scale off-grid renewables is large.

Cost data assessment to be expanded.

© OECD/IEA 2016

Belarus – Energy Efficiency

Prioritisation of energy efficiency technologies

Energy consumption by sector, Belarus, 2014

Main demand drivers: Economic growth/standards of living, structural change in the

economy, urbanisation, transit country for transport

Energy saving measures have curbed demand growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Mtoe

Industry

Non-energy use*

Transport

Residential

Commercial and public

servicesAgriculture, forestry and

fishing

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Belarus – Energy Efficiency

Priority sub-sectors and end-uses for analysis

Residential Industry Transport Sub-sectors: Buildings Cement/building materials

Chemical and petrochemical

Food manufacturing

Textiles

Machinery manufacturing

Wood processing

Road transport

End-uses Space heating

Water heating

Cooking

Appliances

Process heating

Machine drive

Passenger vehicles

Buses

Heavy-duty vehicles

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Belarus – Energy Efficiency

Priority EETs and estimated current market penetration

<25% 25-50% 50-75% >75%

Estimated current market penetration

TFC of applicable sectors (2014)

Residential

24%

Commerce and public services

11%

Industry

22%

Transport

20%

Non-energy use

17%

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

6%

Energy savings

End use Technology

Space heating Triple glazed windows

Space heating Windows (double low-e

glazing, low-conductive frames)

Space heating Energy-plus windows in cold climates (highly insulating and dynamic solar)

Space heating Automatic heat control systems with heat metering and data collection devices

Lighting LED lamps

Space heating Radiators - EU labelling

A++

Space heating Electric heat pumps - EU

labelling - A++

Space heating Gas heat pumps - EU

labelling - A++

Space heating Fully-automated

biomass boilers Space heating Pellet-fired boilers Space heating Biomass-fired boilers Space heating Pellet stoves

Water heating Solar water heater - EU

labelling - A

Water heating Heat pump water

heater - EU labelling - A Lighting Algorithmic lighting

Energy savings

End use Technology

Space heating Solid wall insulation

Space heating Low-E windows

Lighting High-Intensity Discharge

Lamps (HID)

Space heating Loft insulation (100 to

200mm)

Space heating Floor insulation

Lighting Daylight sensors

Lighting Presence sensors

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Belarus – Energy Efficiency

Conclusions: • Strengths include:

Strong government focus and attention to energy savings –decoupling of economic growth and energy demand since the mid-1990s.

Clear policy direction and increasing public awareness.

Progressive phase-out of electricity and heat subsidies over time.

• Suggested areas for improvement include: Improving energy efficiency indicators by expanding data

collection methods.

Improving market conditions for the development of ESCOs.

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Outcomes and lessons learned

CETAM: Ready to be applied in other SEMED, ETC countries and beyond.

Variation across the pilot countries:

• Data quality

• Ambition to deploy clean energy technologies

• Some stronger on EE (e.g. Belarus) other on RE (Morocco)

Energy efficiency technologies: Much harder to measure and monitor than renewables – data from audits, etc is key.

Even where it is difficult to apply, using CETAM can help identify data collection gaps.

© OECD/IEA 2016

Thank you for your attention!