HighesGMOand feedsupply

7/28/2019 HighesGMOand feedsupply

1/19

GM Update October 2008

Ronan Hughes


2/19

GM Update Approval Timeline Maize

Herculex Approval Timeline 33 Months . (Approved by Default )

GA 21 Approval Timeline 31 Months. (Approved by default )

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MIR604 Agrisure ..Already clocked up 43 months

Mon 88017 Yield Guard Already clocked up 34 months

Commissioner Fisher Boel politicians are not taking their

responsibilities seriously on the GMO issue.


3/19

GM Update MON89788 RR2 (Monsanto)

Submitted Oct 2006

EFSA completeness check Jun 2007 ( 8 months)

EFSA Opinion Jul 2008 (21 months)Approval likely ????? Jan/Feb/Mar 2009 (27/28/29 months ????)

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Approval Timeline ?? Months

Favorable EFSA opinion on RR2 received Jul 2008

RR2 was presented to the Standing Committee on 29th Sep 08 NO QMV .

Possibly goes to Council within 90 days .

Do not expect a majority it will go to the Commission to be forced through,

and could be approved in Jan/Feb/Mar 2009


4/19

Crop Timetables Soybeans. Some one always

Harvesting or Drilling

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 2010

US

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 2010

Planted Harvested

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Brazil Planted Harvested


5/19

Irelands Soy Imports

2004 2005 2006 2007

Total NGFI imports 1,886 1,807 2,049 1,916

Total Soy Imports 443 500 505 616

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% of total 23% 28% 25% 32%


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D A ri R r n Th F h in

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7/19

DG AGRI Report

Economic impact of Unapproved GMOs on EU Feed Imports and

Livestock Production

Risk of asynchronous authorisations will become more frequent andaffect a greater range of crops

EU applies a zero-tolerance policy for non-approved GMOs in food

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and feed importsPresence of non-approved GMOs already affected imports of CBPs

Limited EU impact, more pronounced in some Member States eg

Ireland, United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal and Holland

If an interruption in the import of soybeans and soybean meal occurs

only 10% - 20% of imports could be replaced by substitutes


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DG AGRI Report

EU livestock production accounts for c40% of the total value ofagricultural production a loss in competitiveness would haveimportant implications for:

agricultural incomes and employment

upstream and downstream industries, and result in

significant increases in meat prices for the consumer

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s a result of import interruptions animal production would expand in the overseas countries

EU would increase its import of meat from overseas countries

these animals would have been fed with GM soybeans

Meat from animals fed with GM feed is not subject to GMO labellingin the EU


9/19

DG AGRI Report results of modelling

Impact on EU oilmeals balance (deviation from the baseline, %)

OILMEALS

2009 2010 2009 2010

Production -5.0% -4.9% -18.0% -17.6%

MEDIUM WORST CASE

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Import -7.5% -7.3% -76.2% -74.1%Exports 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Stocks -12.6% -1.5% -68.5% 0.5%

Consumption -6.1% -6.6% -48.2% -51.1%

Feed expenditure* 22.8% 22.8% 2068.2% 682.9%

* Total feed expenditure (incl. cereals and oilseeds)


10/19

DG AGRI Report results of modelling

Impact on EU pigmeat sector (deviation from the baseline, %)

PORK

2009 2010 2009 2010

Net Production -0.9% -1.8% -29.3% -34.7%

Import 28.6% 74.3% 637.0% 5461.0%

Exports -0.3% -1.1% -86.0% -85.3%Consumption -0.9% -1.6% -23.9% -17.4%

Impact on EU poultry sector (deviation from the baseline, %)

POULTRY MEDIUM WORST CASE

MEDIUM WORST CASE

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Net Production -1.7% -2.6% -29.2% -43.9%Import 6.6% 10.6% 92.5% 158.3%

Exports -2.9% -5.9% -100.0% -100.0%

Consumption -1.0% -1.5% -15.7% -26.3%

Impact on EU beef meat sector (deviation from the baseline, %)

BEEF2009 2010 2009 2010

Net Production 0.0% 0.0% -1.1% -2.1%

Import 12.7% 14.0% 397.4% 295.8%

Exports -41.2% -95.1% -100.0% -100.0%

Consumption 1.2% 1.5% 30.2% 23.1%

MEDIUM WORST CASE


11/19

World Soybean Production (238m tonnes)

USA

8034%

Others

9

4%

India

9

4%

16

7%

Paraguay

7

Canada

3

1%

11Source : USDA

Brazil

63

26%

Argentina

51

21%


12/19

EU Soy Imports 38m tonnes

USA, 3, 8%

Argentina, 16,

42%

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Brazil, 19, 50%


13/19

Soy Production M Tonnes Top 3

80

63

51

74

4450

50

60

70

80

90

onnes

13

6

19

1

0

10

20

30

USA Brazil Argentina

m

Total Prodn GM Non GM


14/19

.

92%

70%

98%

60%

80%

100%

120%

M

vNonGM

14

8%

30%

2%

0%

20%

40%

USA Brazil Argentina

%

split

G

GM Non GM


15/19

The Food Chain this Autumn: Which market will they

Disturb ?

The EU imports 14.85 of Soya bean for crushing for food chain .

Some switching is possible to OSR and Sunflower.

Food sector can afford to compete strongly with the feed chain into

.

What happens if the extra demand coincides with more strikes?

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16/19

Programme for Government 2007 - 2012

Agriculture, Food and Forestry

Ensuring Bio-security

e will see to ne otiate the establishment o an ll e will see to ne otiate the establishment o an ll e will see to ne otiate the establishment o an ll e will see to ne otiate the establishment o an ll----

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Ireland GMIreland GMIreland GMIreland GM----Free ZoneFree ZoneFree ZoneFree Zone


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What has the Minister said?

In my view the government objective to seek to negotiate an

island wide GM free zone is not about banning importedGM feed, it is about not growing GM crops and not

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weeds in the Irish countryside.

Minister of State, Trevor Sargent TD, 28th

September 2007


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What has the Minister said?

I have consistently said that the commitment in the

programme for Government is not about banningimported feedbut rather about seeking to negotiate the

-

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avoid the release of live GMO's into the Irish environment

Minister of State, Trevor Sargent TD, 20

th

February 2008


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Summary :

Timelines not improving : unpredictability and risk increasing for the

industry.

The twin problem of low level presence and slow approvals has cutoff supplies of Canadian OSR and US Maize by products .

Soyabean ( food) and Soymeal is next .

Ireland needs to support the Commission and to vote in a positivemanner on these GMO dossiers.

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