Higher Education and Research in 2020:

A view from the World Bank

CHEPS 20th Anniversary Conference

Enschede, 16 September 2004

CHEPS’scenarios on higher education &

research

outline of the presentation...

• how different is the future?

• implications for developing countries

• implications for the World Bank

outline of the presentation...

• how different is the future?

the future has already arrived...

networks

new education technologies

business-like management practices

tuition fees, vouchers & student loans

multi-faceted quality assurance systems

convergence vs. diversity: are the scenarios

mutually exclusive?

demographics

pedagogical model

basic vs. applied research

quality assurance

funding

presence of private providers

missing

global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain

new providers

long distance competition

franchise universities

corporate universities

media companies, libraries, museums & secondary schools

education brokers

missing

global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain

non-university institutions

missing

global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain

non-university institutions

academic & pedagogical revolution

academic dimensions

learning and motivation of the student

shape of the university

language policy

duration of degree validity

multi-disciplinarity

problem-based learning

technology-enhanced, interactive learning

life long learning

life long learning, 80 years later

university of the future?

postgraduate

studies

first degree

continuing education

GRIN:technologies of the future

genomics personal genomics RNAi therapy

robotics

information synthetic biology universal translation Bayesian machine learning distributed storage power grid control

nanotechnology nanowires microfluidic optical fibers

the brick university

the brick university

the click university

missing

global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain

non-university institutions

academic & pedagogical revolution

realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities

the volatile setting

missing

global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain

non-university institutions

academic & pedagogical revolution

realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities

regional role of universities

missing

global dimensions and influences countries (China, India, USA) borderless providers brain drain

non-university institutions

academic & pedagogical revolution

realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities

regional role of universities

international role of European universities (business vs. solidarity)

outline of the presentation...

• how different is the future?

• implications for developing countries

is it at all relevant?

aren’t the problems totally different?

similar challenges

new education and training needs linked to

globalization and competitiveness agenda

increased competition from foreign

providers

tapping the potential of new information &

communication technologies

common quality concerns

diploma mills

franchise universities

virtual universities

e-learning

individualized learning

similar history

in most developing countries,

universities built after European

model

colonial model

Humboldt model

outline of the presentation...

• how different is the future?

• implications for developing countries

• implications for the World Bank

focus of support

country level

global level

at the country level

support for reforms through

policy dialogue

financing

technical assistance

flexibility

strategic planning to provide direction for change

close linkages with the economic and social environment for adequate feedback

ability to react and adapt rapidly

global public goods

brain drain

quality assurance for borderless education

trade barriers

ICT infrastructure (access and pricing)

intellectual property rights

the digital divide(i) Distribution of Internet Hosts

Developing Countries (5.9%)

Australia, Japan & New Zealand

(6.4%)

Europe 22.4%

Canada & United States

(65.3%)

(ii) Distribution of World Population

Canada & United States (5.1%)

Europe (12.0%)

Australia, Japan & New Zealand

(2.5%)

Developing Countries (80.4%)

15

34

159

185

256

460

776

2731

3138

4237

4493

5304

5375

5397

5519

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Bangladesh

Pakistan

India

Vietnam

Philippines

China

Thailand

Malaysia

France

Germany

Japan

Netherlands

United States

Singapore

Korea

Internet Users per 10,000 people,

(2002)

conclusion

Forecasts are typically difficult

to make,

Forecasts are typically difficult

to make, especially about

the future.

Niels Bohr

what we can be sure of

changing technologies

changing demand: growing, more diversified, less local

growing competition (for resources and customers) among similar institutions among diverse providers

competing in the learning society...

competing in the learning society...

competing in the learning society...

competing in the learning society...

a vision for the future