High throughput computing to simulate climate change, wildfires … · 2018-05-24 · High...
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High throughput computing to simulate
climate change, wildfires and conifer forests
of Yellowstone National Park
Winslow D. HansenDepartment of Integrative Biology
HTCondor Week
May 24th 2018
Ann Olsson
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Acknowledgements
• Monica Turner
• Rupert Seidl and Werner Rammer
• Kristin Braziunas and Zak Ratajcazk
• NSF, JFSP, Alaska CSC, NPS, Vilas Research Trust
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Ann Olsson
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Yellowstone National Park
• Large intact wildland area
• Oldest national park
• Point farthest from a road in the contiguous US
Landenburger et al. 2008 Sensing
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Ann Olsson
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Ann Olsson
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Ann Olsson
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Tree regeneration historically robust
National Geographic May 2016
Yr-0 Yr-1 Yr-2 Yr-25
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Climate change causing increased fire and droughts
US News
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Fires and drought may exceed forest resilience
National Geographic May 2016
Yr-0 Yr-1 Yr-2 Yr-25
? ? ?
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Where and why might changing climate and fire may cause forests of
Yellowstone to change profoundly?
Ann Olsson
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Research Challenges
• How do we study forests 100 years in the future?
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Process-based models
• System is represented as a set of mechanistic processes that describe cause and effect relationships between system variables
Seidl et al. 2014
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Research Challenges
• Forests are very complex!
Tian et al. 2011
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iLand
• Individual forest Landscape and Disturbance• Tree reproduction, growth, and mortality
• Light availability, climate, soils, competition
• Trees interact with their neighbors
• Broad-scale patterns and
process emerge dynamically
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Spatially explicit landscapes
• Millions of trees
• Simulate wildfires
• ~ 3 hr runs on office computer
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Scenarios and stochasticity
• Future is uncertain and so we often ask what if questions
• Run multiple replicates of each scenario
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The need for high throughput
• 11 different scenarios
• 20 replicates of each scenario
• totaling 280 runs
• This would have taken me 35 days of computation working 24hrs per day
• It took 6 hrs with HTCondor
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Post-processing
• Simulating individual trees every day for 100 yrs generates a lot of data
• 10 gigabytes/ run minimum
• Also used high-throughput to aggregate data to landscape scales in R
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21st century fire and forests
Hansen et al. In Prep
% f
ore
st
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21st century fire and forestsIdentified thresholds of burning
Hansen et al. In Prep
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Yellowstone forests could change
profoundly
• Consequences for the ecosystem and people that live in the region or visit the park
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Take aways
• Ecology is going through a computational renaissance
• Gaining unprecedented insights
• A lot to how the computing sausage is made
• Ecologists are not well trained for this type of work
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Computing newbies do not know what they are doing and that is okay
• High throughput computing is intimidating for beginners
• Experts often lack a frame of reference for where beginners are starting from
• Patience is required to break barriers
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Document everything to save time later
• When one task is conquered, often its on to the next• Insufficient repetition to master each skill
• Critical to document step by step for repeating computing tasks in months or years
• Helpful for institutional memory as new students begin in labs and old ones leave
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• True innovation of CHTC
• Facilitators maximize the value to university and
scientific communities
Computing facilitators are essential