© OECD/IEA 2010

High Efficiency, Low Emissions

Coal Technology Roadmap

Keith Burnard Energy Technology Policy Division

International Energy Agency

IEA-India Workshop

New Delhi, 29 November 2011

© OECD/IEA 2010

Energy Ministers from G8

countries at their June 2008

meeting in Aomori, Japan,

declared their wish to have the IEA

prepare roadmaps to advance

innovative energy technology;

Subsequently endorsed by the

G20;

HELE Coal Technology Roadmap

will be part of the family of

roadmaps published by the IEA

since the first in October 2009.

High Efficiency, Low Emissions Coal Technology Roadmap

To date: • Biofuels • Energy Efficient Buildings • Carbon Capture and Storage • CCS Industrial Applications • Concentrating Solar Power • Cement • Electric & Plug-in Hybrid

Vehicles • Geothermal • Nuclear Power • Smart Grids • Solar Photovoltaic Power • Wind Energy

© OECD/IEA 2010

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012

Priorities More detailed look at next

decade – how can we break out of carbon lock-in?

Energy systems – what are the synergies?

Can renewables make up for low nuclear/slow CCS?

Extended outlook – can we reach zero energy-related emissions?

The changing role of fossil technologies

More regional results – technology projections for 10 key countries and regions

Content Scenarios

Status, vision and tools

progress tracking

technology policy

finance

Energy Systems feature

heating and cooling

flexible electricity

hydrogen

Technology spotlights

coal, gas, CCS

Regional detail

BRICs, EU 27, US, ASEAN

© OECD/IEA 2010

the share of non-fossil electricity has been going down … so far

Nuclear Hydro Non-hydrorenewables

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Share of non-fossil electricityTWh

Source: Climate & Electricity Annual 2011: Data and analyses. IEA, 2011.

Electricity generation by non-fossil fuels

Global leaders agreed a target of limiting temperature increase to 2°C at the UN climate change talks in Cancun in 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions

A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt

CO

2End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

End-use fuel switching 15%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

Renewables 17%

CCS 19%

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

sourc

e: IE

A E

nerg

y T

echnolo

gy P

ers

pectives 2

010

© OECD/IEA 2010

Source: IEA Statistics

Elec

tric

ity

gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

Regional Electricity Generation

The major energy consuming countries rely on fossil fuels for their electricity generation.

© OECD/IEA 2010

Even if its share falls … coal remains a key fuel worldwide

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

historical data

WEO 2009 Reference

WEO 2009 450 Scenario

ETP 2010 Baseline

ETP 2010 BLUE Map Scenario

Coal technologies are key elements of sustainable, least-cost portfolio.

© OECD/IEA 2010

World's Average Annual Growth Rates in Primary Energy

Demand between 2000 and 2008

5.58%

1.38%

3.05%

0.68%

2.8%2.52%

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ind

ex:

2000=

100

Coal/peat

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables

The role of coal in meeting recent growth in energy demand

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source and is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030.

% = average annual rate of growth

Increase in Primary Energy Demand, 2000-08

© OECD/IEA 2010

The coal story … now even bigger

The growth in coal over the past decade represents almost half of total growth

© OECD/IEA 2010

Global coal trends

China’s incremental demand of the last two years is equal to TOTAL EU coal use and not far off TOTAL US 2009 consumption

10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2008 2009 2010 (*Estimate)

(2010-2008) EU 2009 consumption

US 2009 Consumption

China coal consumption (Mt)

2008

2009

2010 (*Estimate)

(2010-2008)

EU 2009 consumption

US 2009 Consumption

© OECD/IEA 2010

…

Average efficiency of coal-fired plant in China exceeds that of the USA

Power generation capacity in China

© OECD/IEA 2010

Coal fired power generation capacity under construction by country

19 17

112

5

51 12

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

OECD

Non-OECD

GW

United States

Europe

China

India

Other

Source: World Energy Outlook 2009

Stark contrast between OECD and non-OECD countries leads to a substantial carbon lock-in in those countries

© OECD/IEA 2010

Coal use … in absolute terms

Contribution from coal reduces from around 2015?

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Gtoe

historical WEO 2009

ETP 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

HELE Coal Roadmap – content

Map the required development of advanced coal

technologies for power generation to 2050

Investigate the technical, financial, policy and other

milestones for generating electricity from coal that must

be achieved if the findings of the BLUE Map scenario are

to be met

Consider the regional implications of this development

pathway, particularly for major coal-using countries such

as China, India, Poland, Russia and the US.

© OECD/IEA 2010

HELE Coal Roadmap Timetable

Jun 2011 Workshop on the long-term vision for the

deployment of clean coal

Jun 2011 – Review of cutting edge clean coal

Feb 2012 technologies

Nov 2011 – Regional workshops in US, China, India and

Feb 2012 Eastern Europe

Feb 2012 Workshop on Policy and Finance

Mar 2012 Draft roadmap for review

Mar – May 2012 Review of draft roadmap and editing

Jul 2012 Publication of roadmap

© OECD/IEA 2010

Thank you keith.burnard@iea.org

www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp