Hidden Implications of the Momentum Built by National...
Transcript of Hidden Implications of the Momentum Built by National...
1Copyright © W. Maly
Hidden Implicationsof the Momentum Built by
National Technology Roadmap forSemiconductors:
The End of the Moore’s Law Era ?
Wojciech Maly Wojciech MalyDepartment of Electrical and ComputerDepartment of Electrical and Computer
EngineeringEngineeringCarnegie Mellon UniversityCarnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh , PA 15213.Pittsburgh , PA 15213.
2Copyright © W. Maly
Objectives of the TalkObjectives of the Talk
To expose potential To expose potential weaknessweakness in current in currentmomentum of IC industry evolution.momentum of IC industry evolution.
To list and rank major To list and rank major challengeschallenges generated generatedby such a weakness.by such a weakness.
3Copyright © W. Maly
OutlineOutline
FF How IC industry has been evolving ?How IC industry has been evolving ?FF 1997 NTRS (SIA Roadmap) 1997 NTRS (SIA Roadmap)
FFKey assumptionsKey assumptionsFF Immediate implicationsImmediate implicationsFFCost analysisCost analysisFF ÒCost contradictionÓÒCost contradictionÓ
FFLonger range implications of 1997 NTRSLonger range implications of 1997 NTRSFF Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Design for Manufacturability (DFM) Design for Manufacturability (DFM)FF Monolithic integration ? Monolithic integration ?FF Feature size and Memory size ? Feature size and Memory size ?
4Copyright © W. Maly
How IC industry has been evolving ?How IC industry has been evolving ?
BB
BB
BBBB
BB
1994
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0.05
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0.15
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Min
imum
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ture
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icro
ns]
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FF Moore’s law:Moore’s law:
FF Minimum feature sizeMinimum feature size__
FF Transistor density Transistor density aa
FF Die sizeDie size aaFF Results: Results:
FF Performance Performance aa
FF Transistor cost Transistor cost __
FF Reliability Reliability aa
Revenue (Performance,t) - Cost(t) > 0Revenue (Performance,t) - Cost(t) > 0
5Copyright © W. Maly
How IC industry has been evolving ?How IC industry has been evolving ?
FF The NTRS has been a detailed implementation The NTRS has been a detailed implementationagenda of Moore’s Law.agenda of Moore’s Law.
FF The NTRS has been a “linear extrapolation” of the The NTRS has been a “linear extrapolation” of thetrends known from the past.trends known from the past.
FF The NTRS is a The NTRS is a “self-fulfilling prophecy”“self-fulfilling prophecy”..FF The NTRS captures evolution trends of IC industry. The NTRS captures evolution trends of IC industry.
SIA National Technology Roadmap SIA National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (NTRS)for Semiconductors (NTRS)
6Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Assumptions: Feature Size1997 NTRS Assumptions: Feature Size
OOOO
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Fea
ture
Siz
e [n
m]
Year
OOOO Technology Generation
���� Isolated Lines
300 mm 450 mm200 mm
7Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Assumptions: Memory Size1997 NTRS Assumptions: Memory Size
B
B
B
B
B
B
J
J
J J
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J
J
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10000
100000256000
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Mem
ory
Size
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B Introduction J Production Ramp
6
8Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Assumptions: 1997 NTRS Assumptions: Transistor DensityTransistor Density
Year
BBBBBBBB BBBB
BBBBBBBB
BBBBBBBB
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�����
�����
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HHHHHHHH HHHH HHHH
HHHHHHHH
HHHH
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10000019
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Tra
nsis
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Den
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[1
M/c
m
]
BBBB Memory ���� MPU HHHH ASIC
2
1
9Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Assumptions: 1997 NTRS Assumptions: Die Size - DRAMDie Size - DRAM
Year
80100
1000
200019
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
18
Chi
p Si
ze [
mm
]
B Year 1 J Year 3 H Year 6
200
400
600
2
B
B BB
B
B
J
J JJ
J
J
H
HH
H
H
H
H
300 mm 450 mm200 mmB J
2
10Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Assumptions: 1997 NTRS Assumptions: Die Size - MPUDie Size - MPU
����
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Year
80100
1000
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Chi
p Si
ze [
mm
]
Year 1 Year 3 Year 6
200
400
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2
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450 mm300 mm200 mm
2
11Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Assumptions: 1997 NTRS Assumptions: Cost per TransistorCost per Transistor
BB
BB
BB
B
JJ
JJ
JJ
J
HH
HH
HH
H
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0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1996
1997
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2013C
ost
per
Bit
/Tra
nsis
tor
[mic
roce
nts]
Year
B DRAM - Year 1 J DRAM - Year 3 H DRAM - Year 6� MPU - Year 1 ���� MPU - Year 3 ���� MPU - Year 6
3
12Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Immediate Implications1997 NTRS Immediate Implications
FF Exponential increase in theExponential increase in thenumber of available transistors;number of available transistors;
FF Substantial increase in Substantial increase inperformance;performance;
FF Cost decrease (increase) ?Cost decrease (increase) ?
13Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Immediate Implications1997 NTRS Immediate Implications
Investment
Functionality
Volume Sold
1998
ComplexityEvolution Spiral
14Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Immediate Implications1997 NTRS Immediate Implications
Investment
Functionality
Volume Sold
1998
ComplexityEvolution Spiral Complexityand Cost
out of control???
15Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: Calculations PerformedCost Analysis: Calculations Performed
( Chip size) * ( Tr. density ) = Tr. per chip
( Cost per tr. ) * ( Tr. per chip) = "Affordable" cost per chip3
Historical costdata
extrapolatedinto the future
Cost whichmarket was
able to ÒaffordÓin the past
16Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: Calculations PerformedCost Analysis: Calculations Performed
( Chip size) * ( Tr. density ) = Tr. per chip
( Cost per tr. ) * ( Tr. per chip) = "Affordable" cost per chip3
Historical costdata
extrapolatedinto the future
Cost whichmarket was
able to ÒaffordÓin the past
Maximum chipcost which
market should beable to ÒaffordÓ
in the future.
17Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: CostCost Analysis: Cost per Die - DRAM per Die - DRAM
B
BB
B
B
B
B
JJ J J
JJ
J
H H H H H H H0200
400600800
10001200140016001800
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Chi
p C
ost
-DR
AM
- [$
]
Year
B Year 1 J Year 3 H Year 6
18Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: DiscussionCost Analysis: Discussion
FF The cost of memory chip has to grow The cost of memory chip has to growrapidly.rapidly.
FF By today’s system cost standards, memory By today’s system cost standards, memorychip price in the range chip price in the range above $200 above $200 seem toseem tobe unacceptable for most of the systems inbe unacceptable for most of the systems inthe mass market.the mass market.
The 1997 NTRS cost per bitassumptions may be too high for
DRAM die to be really affordable.
The 1997 NTRS cost per bitThe 1997 NTRS cost per bitassumptions may be too high forassumptions may be too high for
DRAM die to be really affordable.DRAM die to be really affordable.
19Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: Cost per Die - MPUCost Analysis: Cost per Die - MPU
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��������
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���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����
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p C
ost
-MP
U-
[$]
Year
���� Die - Year 1 ���� Die - Year 3
20Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: DiscussionCost Analysis: Discussion
FF Maximum MPU chip cost is expected to be very high.Maximum MPU chip cost is expected to be very high.FF The rate of die cost decrease needs to be high too. SuchThe rate of die cost decrease needs to be high too. Such
a die cost decrease is expected to be achieved bya die cost decrease is expected to be achieved byaggressive:aggressive:FF Yield increase (from 60% to 80%),Yield increase (from 60% to 80%),FF Die size decrease, Die size decrease,FF Wafer cost decrease Wafer cost decrease
Cost per transistor assumptions ofthe 1997 NTRS for the MPU die areon the borderline of affordability.
Cost per transistor assumptions ofCost per transistor assumptions ofthe 1997 NTRS for the MPU die arethe 1997 NTRS for the MPU die areon the borderline of affordability.on the borderline of affordability.
21Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: Performed CalculationsCost Analysis: Performed Calculations
( Chip size) * ( Tr. density ) = Tr. per chip
( Cost per tr. ) * ( Tr. per chip) = "Affordable" cost per chip
Wafer area
Chip size=
( )*( "Affordable" cost per chip) =
(Yield) * ( ) =
"Affordable" cost per wafer
Number of good chips per wafer
Number of good chips per wafer
Number of chipsper wafer
per waferNumber of chips
"Affordable" cost per wafer
( Number of masks ) * ( Wafer area)
Cost per mask per cm "acceptable”by the market
=2
22Copyright © W. Maly
Cost per cm per layer - DRAMCost per cm per layer - DRAM22
B
B
BB
BJ
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1111
5555
3333
2222
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B J H DRAM Year 6
Man
ufac
turi
ng C
ost
[$/c
m
]2
DRAM Year 3DRAM Year 1
J
J
J J J JJ
H
H
H H HH
H
BB
200 mm 300 mm
450 mm
23Copyright © W. Maly
Cost per cm per layer - MPUCost per cm per layer - MPU22
1996
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ost
[$/c
m
]
Year
MPU Year 1 MPU Year 3
����
���� ����
2
�������� ���� ����
��������
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���� ����
200 mm 300 mm 450 mm
0000....4444
1111
5555
3333
2222����
24Copyright © W. Maly
Cost Analysis: DiscussionCost Analysis: Discussion
FF Cost of manufacturing is expected to stay on Cost of manufacturing is expected to stay onthe unchanged level.the unchanged level.
FF Costs of key processing steps is likely to be Costs of key processing steps is likely to bemore expensive:more expensive:FFNew lithography paradigms;New lithography paradigms;FFDefect learning;Defect learning;FFTest;Test;
The 1997 NTRS cost per transistorassumptions do not permit any
increase of cost of manufacturing.
The 1997 NTRS cost per transistorThe 1997 NTRS cost per transistorassumptions do not permit anyassumptions do not permit any
increase of cost of manufacturing.increase of cost of manufacturing.
25Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Cost Contradiction1997 NTRS Cost Contradiction
FFFrom the maximum acceptable dieFrom the maximum acceptable diecost standpoint, the NTRScost standpoint, the NTRSassumptions about “affordable” assumptions about “affordable” costcostper transistor are not aggressiveper transistor are not aggressiveenoughenough (too low a rate of cost(too low a rate of costdecrease especially for memory if thedecrease especially for memory if thecost per chip is supposed to stay in acost per chip is supposed to stay in areasonable range by today'sreasonable range by today'sstandards).standards).
26Copyright © W. Maly
1997 NTRS Cost Contradiction1997 NTRS Cost Contradiction
FFFrom the cost of manufacturing pointFrom the cost of manufacturing pointof view the NTRS assumptions aboutof view the NTRS assumptions about“affordable” “affordable” transistor cost reductiontransistor cost reductionare too aggressiveare too aggressive (by failing to provide(by failing to providethe cost “safety margin” needed tothe cost “safety margin” needed toaddress all new deep submicron eraaddress all new deep submicron erachallenges).challenges).
27Copyright © W. Maly
Longer Range Implications of 1997 NTRS:Longer Range Implications of 1997 NTRS:The end of Moore’s Law ?The end of Moore’s Law ?
Complexity
Investment
Functionality
Volume Sold
?
1998
Evolution Spiral Cost out ofcontrol !
The 1997 NTRS COSTCONTRADICTION may become a
show-stopper for Moore’s Law.
The 1997 NTRS COSTThe 1997 NTRS COSTCONTRADICTION may become aCONTRADICTION may become a
show-stopper for Moore’s Law.show-stopper for Moore’s Law.
28Copyright © W. Maly
OutlineOutline
FF How IC industry has been evolving ? How IC industry has been evolving ?FF 1997 NTRS (SIA Roadmap) 1997 NTRS (SIA Roadmap)
FFKey assumptionsKey assumptionsFF Immediate implicationsImmediate implicationsFFCost analysisCost analysisFF ÒCost contradictionÓÒCost contradictionÓ
FFLonger range implications of 1997 NTRSLonger range implications of 1997 NTRSFF Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Design for Manufacturability (DFM) Design for Manufacturability (DFM)FF Monolithic integration ? Monolithic integration ?FF Feature size and Memory size ? Feature size and Memory size ?
29Copyright © W. Maly
Longer Range Implications of 1997 NTRS:Longer Range Implications of 1997 NTRS: Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Decrease of transistor size Decrease of transistor sizeFF LithographyLithography
FF Interconnect InterconnectFF CopperCopperFF Low k dielectricLow k dielectric
FF Design&TestDesign&TestFF IP reuseIP reuseFF VerificationVerification
Current key challenges of IC industryCurrent key challenges of IC industryCurrent key challenges of IC industry
Top performance !
Time-to-market !
30Copyright © W. Maly
Implications of 1997 NTRS:Implications of 1997 NTRS: Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Decrease of wafer cost Decrease of wafer costFF Simplified processesSimplified processes
FF Higher volumesHigher volumes
FF End of monolithic integrationEnd of monolithic integrationFF Better manufacturability Better manufacturability
FF Design for ManufacturabilityDesign for ManufacturabilityFF Rapid yield rampingRapid yield rampingFF Less aggressive introduction ofLess aggressive introduction of
new technologiesnew technologies
Cost Effectiveness !
Near future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industry
31Copyright © W. Maly
IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : PastPast
SiliconFoundry
CompleteDesign&Test
Capability
IP Assembly
32Copyright © W. Maly
IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : TodayToday
SiliconFoundry
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
CompleteDesign&Test
Capability
FablessDesign
House “k”
IP Assembly
33Copyright © W. Maly
IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : Next 3 YearsNext 3 Years
Silicon Foundry “i” SiliconFoundry “i+1”
SiliconFoundry “i+1”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
CompleteDesign&Test
Capability
IP Bank “i”
FablessDesign
House “k”
IP AssemblyHouse “k”
IP Assembly
34Copyright © W. Maly
IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : Next 3 -10 YearsNext 3 -10 Years
Silicon Foundry “i” SiliconFoundry “i+1”
SiliconFoundry “i+1”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
CompleteDesign&Test
Capability
IP Bank “i”
IP Bank “j”IP Bank “j” IP Bank“j+1”IP Bank“j+1”
FablessDesign
House “k”
Fabless DesignHouse “x”
Fabless DesignHouse “x+1”
IP AssemblyHouse “z+1”
FablessDesign
House “x”
IP Market
IP AssemblyHouse “k”
IP Assembly
35Copyright © W. Maly
Implications of 1997 NTRS:Implications of 1997 NTRS: Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Decrease of wafer cost Decrease of wafer costFF Simplified processesSimplified processes
FF Higher volumesHigher volumes
FF End of monolithic integrationEnd of monolithic integrationFF Better manufacturability Better manufacturability
FF Design for ManufacturabilityDesign for ManufacturabilityFF Rapid yield rampingRapid yield rampingFF Less aggressive introduction ofLess aggressive introduction of
new technologiesnew technologies
Cost Effectiveness !
Near future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industry
36Copyright © W. Maly
Higher VolumeHigher Volume
200 2,000 20,000 200,000 [$]
Log(cost)
# of systems built
1980s1990s
37Copyright © W. Maly
Higher VolumeHigher Volume
10 100 1,000 10,000
#of systems built
1980s
1990s
#of ICs per systems built
38Copyright © W. Maly
Higher VolumeHigher Volume
1001,000
10,000
Price of the system sold in high volume
100,0001,000,000
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
101
0.1
[$]
39Copyright © W. Maly
Higher VolumeHigher Volume
1001,000
10,000
Cost of a single IC
100,0001,000,000
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
101
0.1
[$]
40Copyright © W. Maly
Higher VolumeHigher Volume
1001,000
10,000
Price of the system sold inhigh volume
and cost of a single ICThe END of Moore’s Law !
100,0001,000,000
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
101
0.1?
[$]
41Copyright © W. Maly
Longer Range Implications of 1997 NTRS:Longer Range Implications of 1997 NTRS:The end of Moore’s Law ?The end of Moore’s Law ?
Complexity
Investment
Functionality
Volume Sold
?
1998
Evolution Spiral Cost out ofcontrol !
The 1997 NTRS COSTCONTRADICTION will become a
show-stopper for Moore’s Law.
The 1997 NTRS COSTThe 1997 NTRS COSTCONTRADICTION will become aCONTRADICTION will become a
show-stopper for Moore’s Law.show-stopper for Moore’s Law.
42Copyright © W. Maly
Implications of 1997 NTRS:Implications of 1997 NTRS: Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Decrease of wafer cost Decrease of wafer costFF Simplified processesSimplified processes
FF Higher volumesHigher volumes
FF End of monolithic integrationEnd of monolithic integrationFF Better manufacturability Better manufacturability
FF Design for ManufacturabilityDesign for ManufacturabilityFF Rapid yield rampingRapid yield rampingFF Less aggressive introduction ofLess aggressive introduction of
new technologiesnew technologies
Cost Effectiveness !
Near future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industry
43Copyright © W. Maly
End of Monolithic IntegrationEnd of Monolithic Integration
DRAMDRAM
ROMROM
Current vision:
SYSTEM onSINGLECHIP ! ?but …..
Current vision:
SYSTEM onSINGLECHIP ! ?but …..
44Copyright © W. Maly
End of Monolithic IntegrationEnd of Monolithic Integration
DRAMDRAM
ROMROM
Need forintegration ofMixedTechnologies:EmbeddedMemories
Need forintegration ofMixedTechnologies:EmbeddedMemories
45Copyright © W. Maly
End of Monolithic IntegrationEnd of Monolithic Integration
Very selective usageof newesttechnologies:“Smallest featuresize”
Very selective usageof newesttechnologies:“Smallest featuresize”
46Copyright © W. Maly
End of Monolithic IntegrationEnd of Monolithic Integration
Man
ufac
turi
ng C
ost
[$/c
m
] MPU Year 1 MPU Year 3���� ����2
1997
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2011
2013
2015
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���� ���� ���� ���� �������� ����
���� �������� ���� ���� ����
Year
47Copyright © W. Maly
End of Monolithic IntegrationEnd of Monolithic Integration
System on the chipmay be:System on the chipmay be:
FF MoreMoreexpensive toexpensive tofabricate;fabricate;
FF More difficultMore difficultto design;to design;
FF IncompatibleIncompatiblewith of ÒIPwith of ÒIPAssemblyAssemblyMarketÓMarketÓ
48Copyright © W. Maly
IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : IC Design-Manufacturing Interface : Next 3 -10 YearsNext 3 -10 Years
Silicon Foundry “i” SiliconFoundry “i+1”
SiliconFoundry “i+1”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
SiliconFoundry
“i+2”
CompleteDesign&Test
Capability
IP Bank “i”
IP Bank “j”IP Bank “j” IP Bank“j+1”IP Bank“j+1”
FablessDesign
House “k”
Fabless DesignHouse “x”
Fabless DesignHouse “x+1”
IP AssemblyHouse “z+1”
FablessDesign
House “x”
IP Market
IP AssemblyHouse “k”
IP Assembly
49Copyright © W. Maly
2.5 D System Integration2.5 D System Integration
High Performance and High Cost
Modest Performance and Low Cost
50Copyright © W. Maly
2.5 D System Integration2.5 D System Integration
51Copyright © W. Maly
2.5 D System Integration2.5 D System Integration
Communication Channel
“Exotic” Technology (Sensors/MEMS)
52Copyright © W. Maly
2.5 D System Integration2.5 D System Integration
Embedded, Stackable DRAM
53Copyright © W. Maly
2.5 D System Integration2.5 D System Integration
54Copyright © W. Maly
Implications of 1997 NTRS:Implications of 1997 NTRS: Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Decrease of wafer cost Decrease of wafer costFF Simplified processesSimplified processes
FF Higher volumesHigher volumes
FF End of monolithic integrationEnd of monolithic integrationFF Better manufacturability Better manufacturability
FF Design for ManufacturabilityDesign for ManufacturabilityFF Rapid yield rampingRapid yield rampingFF Less aggressive introduction ofLess aggressive introduction of
new technologiesnew technologies
Cost Effectiveness !
Near future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industry
55Copyright © W. Maly
Design for ManufacturabilityDesign for Manufacturability
Prediction of Defect
Characteristics
Prediction of Market
Conditions
Price-Performance Trade-offs
Cost Modeling
Cost Accounting
Yield/ Performance
Modeling
Cost-Performance Trade-offs
DFM = Profit Maximization
Prediction of Process
Instabilities
Optimization of
Optimization of
56Copyright © W. Maly
Implications of 1997 NTRS:Implications of 1997 NTRS: Change of Priorities Change of Priorities
FF Decrease of wafer cost Decrease of wafer costFF Simplified processesSimplified processes
FF Higher volumesHigher volumes
FF End of monolithic integrationEnd of monolithic integrationFF Better manufacturability Better manufacturability
FF Design for ManufacturabilityDesign for ManufacturabilityFF Rapid yield rampingRapid yield rampingFF Less aggressive introduction ofLess aggressive introduction of
new technologiesnew technologies
Cost Effectiveness !
Near future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industryNear future top challenges of IC industry
57Copyright © W. Maly
Lithography LimitationsLithography Limitations
0.4
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2006
K1
Fact
or (
R*N
A/λ
)
Year
6666
0.35 0.25 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.10
0.55 0.60 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
F. Size
NA
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
6666 6666
6666
SSSS SSSS
6666
6666
6666
i-line
KrF(248 nm) ArF
(193 nm)
Difficult
Ex. Difficult
H. Watanabe1998 VLSI Technology Symposium
58Copyright © W. Maly
Alternative Assumptions: Feature SizeAlternative Assumptions: Feature Size
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e [n
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300 mm 450 mm200 mm
66666
6666
6666
6666
6 77777777
1997 NTRS
Possible Scenario
6
7777
77776
7777
180 nm180 nm150 nm
59Copyright © W. Maly
B
Alternative Assumptions: Memory SizeAlternative Assumptions: Memory Size
B
B B B B B
J
J
J J J J
64100
1000
10000
100000256000
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Mem
ory
Size
[10
]
Year
B Introduction J Production Ramp
6
J
60Copyright © W. Maly
Alternative Assumptions: Alternative Assumptions: Transistor DensityTransistor Density
BBBBBBBB BBBB BBBB BBBB BBBB BBBB
�������� ���� � � ���� ����
1
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100000
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2010
2011
2012
2013T
rans
isto
r D
ensi
ty S
ize
[1/c
m
]
Year
BBBB Memory ���� MPU
2
61Copyright © W. Maly
Alternative Assumptions: Memory SizeAlternative Assumptions: Memory Size
Year
80100
1000
2000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Chi
p Si
ze [
mm
]
B Year 1 J Year 3 H Year 6
200
400
600
2
B200
BB
1Gb
J
H
HJ
J
256 Mb
H HH
62Copyright © W. Maly
Alternative Assumptions: Alternative Assumptions: Cost per TransistorCost per Transistor
BB B
����
���� �������� ����
������������
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1000019
96
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013C
ost p
er B
it/T
rans
isto
r [m
icro
cent
s]
Year
B DRAM - Year 1 J DRAM - Year 3 H DRAM - Year 6� MPU - Year 1 ���� MPU - Year 3 ���� MPU - Year 6
������������������������������������
������������������������
J J BJHBJH BJH BJH BJH BJH
63Copyright © W. Maly
Alternative Assumptions: Alternative Assumptions: Cost per Die - DRAMCost per Die - DRAM
BBB B B B
B
B B B B B B B B BJ
J
J J
J
J J J J J J J J J J JH
H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Die
Cos
t -D
RA
M-
[$]
Year
B Year 1 J Year 3 H Year 6
64Copyright © W. Maly
ConclusionsConclusions
FF Current momentum of IC Industry may Current momentum of IC Industry maylead to a “lead to a “severe cost contradictionsevere cost contradiction”.”.
FFSuch a cost contradiction will requireSuch a cost contradiction will requiredramatic dramatic reshuffling of priorities reshuffling of priorities thatthatguide IC industry.guide IC industry.
FFAchieving high levels of Achieving high levels of manufacturing costmanufacturing costeffectiveness effectiveness will become priority #1.will become priority #1.
65Copyright © W. Maly
DetailsDetails
http://www.ece.cmu.edu/~maly/circuits.htmlhttp://www.ece.cmu.edu/~maly/circuits.html
66Copyright © W. Maly
Implications of 1997 NTRS Cost ContradictionImplications of 1997 NTRS Cost Contradiction
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Man
ufac
turi
ng C
ost [
$/cm
]
Year
MPU Year 1 MPU Year 3
����
���� ����
2
�������� ���� ����
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��������
200 mm 300 mm 450 mm
0000....4444
1111
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3333
2222����
B
B
BB
BJ
0000....4444
1111
5555
3333
2222
Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018B J H DRAM Year 6
Man
ufac
turi
ng C
ost [
$/cm
]2
DRAM Year 3DRAM Year 1
J
J
J J J JJ
H
H
H H HH
H
BB
200 mm 300 mm
450 mm
B
BB
B
B
B
B
JJ J J
JJ
J
H H H H H H H0200
400600
80010001200140016001800
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Chi
p C
ost
-DR
AM
- [$
]
Year
B Year 1 J Year 3 H Year 6
���� ���� ��������
��������
����
���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Chi
p C
ost
-MP
U-
[$]
Year
���� Die - Year 1 ���� Die - Year 3