Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in

California

Team CarRamrod

Disclaimer

• The following is a hypothetical scenario. The group members do not engage in, nor condone engaging in the trade of banned products.

CA Law• 12020. (a) Any person in this state who does any of the following is

punishable by imprisonment in a county jail not exceeding one year or in the state prison:

(2) Commencing January 1, 2000, manufactures or causes to bemanufactured, imports into the state, keeps for sale, or offers orexposes for sale, or who gives, or lends, any large-capacitymagazine....(c) (25) As used in this section, "large-capacity magazine" means anyammunition feeding device with the capacity to accept more than 10rounds, but shall not be construed to include any of the following:(A) A feeding device that has been permanently altered so that itcannot accommodate more than 10 rounds.(B) A .22 caliber tube ammunition feeding device.(C) A tubular magazine that is contained in a lever- action firearm.

Motivation• Law largely unenforceable

o No outright prohibition of possessiono No way to prove if magazine manufactured after 2000

• Bad guys have themo Not illegal in most other stateso Hard to control flow into CA

• So should youo Home invasionso Civil Unrest

LA Riots 1992: Koreatown

• 45% of all property damage• 5 of 53 deaths• Police nowhere to be seen• Store-owners banded together on rooftops• Defended themselves against much larger

crowds using “Assault Weapons” and High-Capacity Magazines

Concept

• Procure High-Capacity magazines from another state

• Distribute by airplane, flying out of Watsonville Municipal Airport

• Distribute to large cities (Pop > 150,000) via small airports

The Market

Assumptions/Constraints (General)

• Citieso California cities with populations over 150k are considered

• Population drives largest profit with widest distributiono 36 (of 482) cities meet population limit and are analyzedo Only 20 cities will be supplied

• Airportso Only airports considered small/medium by the FAA are consideredo Only airports within 50 miles of each city are considered o 550 out of 1007 total California airports are analyzed

• Networko Start Node: Watsonville; End Node: Marketo 2305 total arcs (Watsonville->Airport->City->Market)o 588 total nodes (Watsonville->Airport->City->Market)

Assumptions/Constraints (Resources)

• Season lasts 20 workdays (1 month, per year)

• Cities will be supplied only once per season

• Each airport will supply only 1 city

• AR-15 high-capacity magazineso 7.5”x2.75”x1”, .25 lbs

• 1 airplane will be used (Cessna Super CargoMaster)o 452 cubic feet of storage; (4500 lbs/.25 lbs) = 18,000 Magazines (180 cases)o $2.29/nm fuel costo 871 nm range

• Supplier (out of State)o Able to supply in excess of the air transport constraint (20*180=3600 cases).

Assumptions/Constraints (Formulation)

• Demand (Capacity):o (.0525*Population)/100o Range: 79 - 1991o 21% of CA population own firearms*

• 21% used in model (conservative)o 50% of gun-owners don’t support high-capacity magazine ban**

• 25% used in model (conservative)

• Probability (of capture, relatively):o ((Distance/50)*1.24)*(CrimeRate*12)o Ranges: (Distance: .1 - 50), (CrimeRate: .0146 - .0667)

• Highest relative probability: 50 miles from Oakland: 97%o Not a function of population

• Price (Cost):o log(population(.0525)/1000)*$30

• $30: Upper-end price of name-brand magazine in legal stateo Range($26.49 - $68.97)

Airports

U= Plane (180)

Cities

Cost = Prob of Getting Caught

U= Inf Cost = - RevenueCost = Flight price

U = City Demand

3600

-3600

The Model

Watsonville

Market

-3600 3600

Optimizing

• Parameters:o Probability : log (1-Pij)o Revenue : Yij * Cij

• Method Of Optimization:o Probability as a Constrainto Probability in Objective Function

Under The Hood• Constraint:

MaxProb.. sum((i,j), log(1-arcdata(i,j, 'Probb'))*P(i,j)) =g= log(.90);

• Objective Function:OBJECTIVE.. Zprimal =e= SUM(arcs(i,j),(arcdata(i,j,'Cost') *Y(i,j) )) + (Weight)*probab + nC/2*SUM(j,UnsatisfiedDemand(j)) ;

Results (.90)• Probability = 0.90 • Revenue from LosxAngeles -> is 1241513.32• Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96• Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86• Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06• Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88• Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11• Revenue from Oakland -> is 708495.87• Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15• Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03• Revenue from SantaxAna -> is 628019.85• Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76• Revenue from Stockton -> is 543963.72• Revenue from ChulaxVista -> is 425241.44• Revenue from Fremont -> is 353053.23• Revenue from Irvine -> is 348738.48• Revenue from SanxBernardi -> is 343933.06• Revenue from Modesto -> is 322469.19• Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30• Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88• Revenue from Glendale -> is 300847.34• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -631.00• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 631.00• total Revenue = 11922729.51

Results (.70)• Probability = 0.70• Revenue from LosxAngeles -> is 1241513.32• Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96• Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86• Revenue from SanxFrancisc -> is 878084.25• Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06• Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88• Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11• Revenue from Oakland -> is 708495.87• Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15• Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03• Revenue from SantaxAna -> is 628019.85• Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76• Revenue from Stockton -> is 543963.72• Revenue from ChulaxVista -> is 425241.44• Revenue from Fremont -> is 353053.23• Revenue from Irvine -> is 348738.48• Revenue from SanxBernardi -> is 343933.06• Revenue from Modesto -> is 322469.19• Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30• Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -551.00• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 551.00• total Revenue = 12499966.42

Results (.96)• Probability = 0.96 • Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96• Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86• Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06• Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88• Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11• Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15• Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03• Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76• Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30• Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88• Revenue from Oceanside -> is 246148.93• Revenue from ElkxGrove -> is 217174.39• Revenue from Corona -> is 214027.63• Revenue from Torrance -> is 201286.88• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -1658.00• SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 1658.00• total Revenue = 7585091.84

Results

0.35 0.37 0.87 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.981000000

3000000

5000000

7000000

9000000

11000000

13000000

15000000

Probability V.S. Revenue

Conclusion• Results:

o Market changed with different threshold values for Probability of capture.

• What could we have done better given more time?o More realistic model

• No shipping by air from Watsonville to San Jose, etc.• Capability to ship to more than 20 cities (longer contract)

o More realistic constraints• Better Probability Function• Better Demand Function