City of Hesperia Council Districting 2017

Criteria and ProcessJustin Levitt, Vice-PresidentDouglas Johnson, PresidentNational Demographics Corporation (NDC)

March 7, 2017

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Election Systems

March 7, 2017

1. “At Large” or “Citywide” elections

2. “From District” or “Residence” requirements, with at large elections

3. “By District” voting

The California Voting Rights Act favors by-district voting

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Why Districts?

March 7, 2017

At-Large Election

100 majority voters

20 oppositionvoters

By-District Election

30 majority voters

20 oppositionvoters

10 majority voters

30 majority voters

30 majority voters

When one voting bloc significantly outnumbers another, the majority wins every at-large seat.

But if the smaller group is geographically concentrated, it can elect someone who shares their views to the Council or Board.

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Large-Scale Shift Statewide

Signed into law by Gov. Gray Davis in 2002 Suspended by Superior Court

ruling in the Modesto case, but reinstated by appeals court in 2006.

Switched (or in the process of switching) as a result of CVRA: At least 142 school districts 28 Community College Districts 53 cities 1 County Board of Supervisors 8 water and other special districts.

Key decisions & settlements Only Palmdale has gone to

trial on the merits (the city lost)

Key settlements: Palmdale: $4.7 million Modesto: $3 million Highland: $1.3 million Anaheim: $1.1 million Whittier: $1 million Santa Barbara: $600,000 Tulare Hospital: $500,000 Madera Unified: plaintiff attorneys

asked for $1.8 million, but received about $170,000

Hanford Joint Union Schools: $118,000

Merced City: $42,000 Placentia: $20,000

March 7, 2017

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Federal Voting Rights Act of 1965

March 7, 2017

Gingles v Thornburg US Supreme Court ruling set up tests for liability:1. Can the protected class constitute the majority of a district?2. Does the protected class vote as a bloc?3. Do the voters who are not in the protected class vote in a bloc to

defeat the preferred candidates of the protected class?4. Do the “totality of circumstances” indicate race is a factor in

elections?

A violation exists if a jurisdiction fails all four tests

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CVRA Legal Impacts

March 7, 2017

CVRA makes it significantly easier for plaintiffs to force jurisdictions into “by-district” election systems Eliminates two of the US Supreme Court’s Gingles tests:1. Can the protected class constitute the majority of a district?2. Does the protected class vote as a bloc?3. Do the voters who are not in the protected class vote in a bloc

to defeat the preferred candidates of the protected class?4. Do the “totality of circumstances” indicate race is a factor in

elections?

Liability is now determined only by the presence of racially polarized voting

These expert-driven cases are almost prohibitively expensive, even if a jurisdiction wins

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Inland Empire Changes

March 7, 2017

Changed due to CVRA:Banning, Chino, Corona, Eastvale, Hemet, Highland, Rancho Cucamonga, Wildomar, Yucaipa, UplandChanging due to CVRA:Cathedral City, Chino Hills, Fontana, Hesperia, Indio, RedlandsUnder CVRA Threat:Apple Valley, Victorville, Rialto

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Current Timeline

March 7, 2017

Date EventCouncil adopts Resolution of Intent

March 7 Kickoff meeting and Public Hearing to take testimony on the composition of potential districts

March 21 Public Hearings to take testimony on the composition of potential districts (at regular Council meetings)

March 27 Deadline for initial public map submissions

March 30 Draft maps (including public submissions) published. April 18 Public Hearing regarding the content of the draft map or

maps and the proposed sequence of electionsMay 2 Public Hearing regarding the content of the draft map or

maps and the proposed sequence of electionsMay 16 Public Hearing and Map Ordinance Introduction (at

regular Council Meeting)June 6 2nd reading and final adoption of ordinance

November 2018

First two Council districts hold elections

November 2020

Remaining two Council Districts hold elections

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Community Engagement “3 E’s”

March 7, 2017

1. Engage the public Through press, social media, outreach to community

organizations, and word of mouth

2. Educate the community Share tonight’s information about the process and

requirements

3. Empower residents The public’s voice matters

Decide on Criteria

Equal Population Federal Voting Rights Act

Communities of interest Compact Contiguous Visible (Natural & man-made)

boundaries Respect for voters’ wishes and

continuity in office Planned future growth

Federal Laws Traditional Criteria

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March 7, 2017

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Defining Communities of Interest

March 7, 2017

“A Community of Interest (COI) is a neighborhood or community that would benefit from being maintained in a single district because of shared interests, views, or characteristics.”Possible community feature/boundary definitions include: School Attendance Areas City borders Natural neighborhood dividing lines, such as highway or major roads,

rivers, canals, and/or hills Areas around parks and other neighborhood landmarks Common issues, neighborhood activities, or legislative/election concerns Shared demographic characteristics

Such as similar levels of income, education, or linguistic isolation Ancestry (Not race or ethnicity)

Does a Community of Interest want to be united in one district, or to be divided to have a say in multiple elections?

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March 7, 2017

2010Demographic

Summary

The City’s 2010 Census population of 90,173 means that each of the Council districts will have 18,000 residents

(the total population divided among 5

districts).

Race/ Ethnic Profile Count Percent ACS Profile Count PercentTotal Population 90,173 ACS Total Population 92,296 2%Latino 44,091 49% Age 0 - 19 31,062 34%NH White 37,027 41% Age 20 - 60 47,389 51%NH Black/ African-American 5,269 6% Age 60+ 13,845 15%NH Native American 759 1%NH Asian-American 2,158 2% Immigrant 13,895 15%NH Pacific Islander 291 0% Naturalized (pct of total immigrants) 6,495 47%NH Other 218 0% Age 5+ 85,131NH Multi-Race 360 0% Speak English at home 58,667 69%Voting Age Population total 61,017 Speak Spanish at home 24,695 29%VAP Latino 26,399 43% Speak an Asian language at home 904 1%VAP NH White 28,669 47% Speak other language at home 865 1%VAP NH Black/ African-American 3,271 5% Speak English only "well" or less 9,465 11%VAP NH Native American 606 1% Age 25+ 54,058VAP NH Asian-American 1,525 2% Age 25+, no HS degree 12,390 23%VAP NH Pacific Islander 179 0% Age 25+, HS degree (only) 36,423 67%VAP NH Other 150 0% Age 25+, bachelor degree (only) 3,371 6%VAP NH Multi-Race 218 0% Age 25+, graduate degree (only) 1,875 3%Citizen VAP total 56,973 Households 26,424CVAP Latino 23,891 42% Child under 18 in Household 10,065 38%CVAP NH White 27,114 48% Income $0-25k 7,216 27%CVAP NH African-American 3,893 7% Income $25-50k 7,236 27%CVAP NH Asian & Pacific Islander 995 2% Income $50-75k 5,134 19%CVAP Other (incl. Nat. Amer. & Pac. Isl.) 1,079 2% Income $75-200k 6,431 24%Voter Registration (Nov. 2014) 37,031 Income $200k+ 407 2%Latino Reg 13,138 35% Housing units 28,898Asian-Surnamed Reg. 364 1% Single-Family 25,121 87%Filipino-Surnamed Reg. 291 1% Multi-Family 3,776 13%Est. NH White Reg. 20,569 56% Vacant 2,473 9%Est. African-Amer. Reg 2,438 7% Occupied 26,424 91%Democratic Reg. 12,532 34% Rented 9,916 38%Republican Reg. 13,519 37% Owned 16,509 62%Other/ No Party Reg. 10,980 30%Voters Casting Ballots (Nov. 2014) 11,709 32% Voters Casting Ballots (Nov. 2012) 23,428 65%Latino voters 2,706 23% Latino voters 6,776 29%Asian-Surnamed voters 95 1% Asian-Surnamed voters 180 1%Filipino-Surnamed voters 80 1% Filipino-Surnamed voters 150 1%Est. NH White voters 7,911 68% Est. NH White voters 14,505 62%Est. African-Amer. Reg 818 7% Est. African-Amer. Reg 1,654 7%Democratic voters 3,741 32%Republican voters 5,715 49%Other/ No Party voters 2,253 19%Sources: 2010 Census, California Statewide Database (2012 and 2014 November elections), 2011-2015 American Community Survey Special Tabulation of Citizen Voting Age data, and 2011-2015 American Community Survey data. "Latino" registration and turnout numbers are Spanish-surnamed data adjusted with US Census Population Division's California adjustment factor.

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Latino CVAP

March 7, 2017

Total City Population: 90,173

49% Latino41% “Non-Hispanic

White”6% African-American2% Asian-American

2% Other

Citizen Voting Age (‘eligible voter’)

Population:42% Latino

48% “Non-Hispanic White”

7% African-American2% Asian-American

1% Other

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Asian-Americans

March 7, 2017

Asian-American and Pacific Islanders are not concentrated in any area of the City.

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African-Americans

March 7, 2017

The yellow block has only 5 residents.

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Renters

March 7, 2017

Data available at the larger ‘census tract’ level only (shown with green borders).

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Multifamily Housing

March 7, 2017

“Multifamily” is the Census term for apartments and condominiums.

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Other Demographic Data Available

March 7, 2017

Additional data is available for use in identifying “communities of interest” when drawing districts: Education levels Languages spoken at home Income levels Percentage immigrants And much, much more

19 Discussion

March 7, 2017