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Hinges on rural recovery Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) 2QFY21 numbers were broadly in line

estimates. EBITDA increased by 17% YoY to Rs.12.8bn with margin at 13.7% (-81bps YoY). Increase in RM prices was offset by cost control measures and better operating leverage.

The management sounded positive on domestic sales outlook with demand back to pre Covid level, expecting momentum to continue into the festive season. Festive sales have started off well for the company and retail sales reached 96% of last year during the Navratri period (accounts for 1/3rd of festive demand). Rural demand continues to be strong while Semi and urban demand is catching up well.

As per the company, system Inventory is at comfortable level and the company is targeting to reduced Inventory to less than 4 weeks at the end of festive period.

The company has taken price increases in July and October and is looking to take further price hikes to compensate BS6 cost and expand margin. The company has guided for long term margin in the range of 14-16%.

In 1HFY21, the company expanded its market share (+300bps YoY to 38.6% YTD Sept 20) and expects to maintain the lead through a well-positioned product portfolio and efficient supply chain management

We expect the trends of 1) relative strength in the rural economy, 2) shift from shared to personal mobility and 3) down-trading; to be prominent in the near to medium term. In our view, Hero is best positioned to benefit from all of these trends as the company has a strong product portfolio in entry and executive segments with more than 60% shares, deep rural/semi-rural network reach (rural contributes to 50% volume). The recent Tie up with Harley Davidson(HD) will also help to accelerate and enhance premium segment strategy in longer run, the company to develop a range of products for Harley(HD).

We continue to remain positive on the stock and see increased visibility for HMCL to deliver reasonable earnings growth (20% CAGR over FY21-23E) led by market share gain and margin expansion We recommend Accumulate, with target price Rs. 3,288 (17x FY23E EPS). Q2FY21 Result (Rs Mn)

Particulars Q2FY21 Q2FY20 YoY (%) Q1FY21 QoQ (%)

Revenue 93,673 75,707 23.7 29,715 215.2

Total Expense 80,808 64,696 24.9 28,635 182.2

EBITDA 12,865 11,011 16.8 1,081 1090.7

Depreciation 1,732 2,034 (14.9) 1,708 1.4

EBIT 11,134 8,977 24.0 (627) (1875.4)

Other Income 1,413 2,078 (32.0) 1,485 (4.8)

Interest 46 77 (39.5) 63 (25.9)

EBT 12,500 10,377 20.5 795 1472.6

Tax 2,965 1,629 82.0 182 1530.9

RPAT 9,535 8,748 9.0 613 1455.3

APAT 9,535 9,349 2.0 613 1455.3

(bps) (bps) Gross Margin (%) 28.9 32.3 (339) 29.5 (63)

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.7 14.5 (81) 3.6 1010

NPM (%) 10.2 11.6 (138) 2.1 812

Tax Rate (%) 23.7 15.7 802 22.9 85

EBIT Margin (%) 11.9 11.9 3 (2.1) 1400

CMP Rs 2,946

Target / Upside Rs 3,288 / 12%

NIFTY 11,730

Scrip Details

Equity / FV Rs 399mn / Rs 2

Market Cap Rs 588bn

USD 8bn

52-week High/Low Rs 3,395/ 1,475

Avg. Volume (no) 16,77,820

Bloom Code HMCL IN

Price Performance 1M 3M 12M

Absolute (%) (7) 6 9

Rel to NIFTY (%) (12) 1 9

Shareholding Pattern

Mar'20 Jun'20 Sep'20

Promoters 34.6 34.8 34.8

MF/Banks/FIs 21.3 22.9 23.9

FIIs 34.7 33.1 33.6

Public / Others 9.4 9.3 7.7

Valuation (x)

FY21E FY22E FY23E

P/E 21.8 16.8 15.2

EV/EBITDA 14.0 10.4 9.2

ROE (%) 17.8 20.7 20.7

RoACE (%) 17.7 20.6 20.7

Estimates (Rs mn)

FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenue 2,82,246 3,35,137 3,61,630

EBITDA 36,438 47,137 51,692

PAT 27,025 35,110 38,624

EPS (Rs.) 135.3 175.8 193.4

Analyst: Abhishek Jain Tel: +9122 40969739

E-mail: abhishekj@dolatcapital.com

Associate: Kripashankar Maurya Tel: +91 22 40969741

E-mail: kripashankarm@dolatcapital.com

Hero MotoCorp

Accumulate

October 29, 2020

October 29, 2020 2 Hero MotoCorp

Gain in market share – Better prepared vs peers Hero Motocorp has expanded its market share in bikes at 53% at the YTD FY21(+100bps YoY) led by better supply chain management. The company pre-empted pent-up demand after lockdown and readies operations to meet the same result in increase in its overall market share (+300bps YoY to 38.6%) in 2W space. As the supply situation is much better compared to its peers, HMCL continues to outperform in the festive season. The company has also re- gained market share in the Scooter Segment (moved up from 8% to 10%). With Semi/urban sales picking up, scooter demand should revive. High input prices to restrict margin expansion in near term An increase in core commodity prices, along with sharp inflation in precious metal prices, would pressure margins, however this would be offset by HMCL’s cost-cutting program LEAP-II (target of 100bps of cost cuts), price hike and s operating leverage benefits. The company has guided for long term margin in the range of 14-16% .

Actual vs DART estimates Particulars (Rs mn) Actual Dart Estimates Variance (%) Comments

Revenue 93,673 92,596 1

EBIDTA 12,865 12,963 (1)

EBIDTA Margin (%) 13.7 14.0 (27)bps Higher RM cost

PAT 9,535 9,364 2

Source: DART, Company

Change in estimates Rs Mn FY22E FY23E

New Previous Chg (%) New Previous Chg (%)

Revenue 3,35,137 3,10,717 7.9 3,61,630 3,35,472 7.8

EBITDA 47,137 42,637 10.6 51,692 47,554 8.7

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 13.7 34bps 14.3 14.2 12bps

PAT 35,110 31,647 10.9 38,624 35,427 9.0

EPS (Rs.) 175.8 158.5 10.9 193.4 177.4 9.0

Source: DART, Company

Key conference call highlights

Improvement in overall profitability is attributed to recovery in demand to pre-Covid levels, credible resumption of supply chain and logistics, cost & cash management, along with judicious price increase.

Few macro indicators like e-way bill, GST collection, PV sales and improved sentiment in rural & semi urban areas are indicating improved outlook. Based on early assumption management expects momentum to continue into the festive season.

Q2 Retail sales were better than pre-covid level. Rural market continues to be strong led by better harvesting season while Semi urban/ urban market is also improving gradually. HMCL has gain market share in Motorcycle and Scooter both.

HMCL’s, supply chain and marketing channel has reached its peak capacity, company producing 30k units per day from last 10 days. During Navratri period Company has archived 96% of last year festive sales. The company is targeting to reduced Inventory to less than 4 weeks at the end of festive period.

October 29, 2020 3 Hero MotoCorp

Splendor is doing very well during this festive season few customer is upgrading

from HF deluxe. Xpuls,160R , Passion pro – gaining market share in urban market. North, Central witnessing good enquiries and dealer is optimistic for festive season. Navratri account 1/3rd of sales for overall festive season.

Company has commenced the dispatches of Hero Xtreme 160R to further strengthens its presence in the premium motorcycle segment.

Share of first time buyer has improved due to preference of personal mobility by office goer.

In scooter segment Pleasure and Pleasure+, destiny receiving encouraging response.

BS6 cost prices has passed on absolute basis and expect margin to improve gradually. Employee cost increase 9% YoY led by salary increment and expect to normalize in coming quarter. However, advertising cost may increase in Q3 and expect other expenses to be similar to last year as percent of sale on annual basis.

Financing penetration improved to 40% management expect financing penetration to improve further going forward. Hero Fincorp share stood at 50%.

Spare part revenue was Rs. 8.10bn grew 10% YoY and other operating revenue stood at Rs.1.87bn during the quarter.

Company has generated free Cash flow of Rs.34bn during Q2FY21, improvement in receivable reflect good health of dealer. Increase in payable leads to higher production.

As per the distribution agreement, Hero MotoCorp will sell and service Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and sell parts and accessories and general merchandise riding gear and apparel through a network of brand-exclusive Harley-Davidson dealers and Hero’s existing dealership network in India. There will be economic inventive based on licensing agreement for both company.

Further, as part of a Licensing agreement, Hero MotoCorp will develop and sell a range of premium motorcycles under the Harley-Davidson brand name. This partnership will benefit mutually to both company.

Assumption table

(in '000 units) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Domestic motorcycles 6,499 6,894 5,829 4,984 5,911 6,251

% YoY 14.1 6.1 (15.4) (14.5) 18.6 5.8

Domestic scooters 884 719 403 342 407 457

% YoY 11.9 (19) (44) (15) 19 12

Exports 204 208 178 152 182 210

% YoY 13.4 1.8 (14.3) (14.5) 19.5 15.5

Total volumes 7,587 7,821 6,410 5,478 6,501 6,918 % YoY 13.9 3.1 (18.0) (14.5) 18.7 6.4

Source: DART, Company

October 29, 2020 4 Hero MotoCorp

Peer Valuation table

Mcap Rating TP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%)

Company (Rs Bn) FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E

HMCL 588 Accumulate 3,288 135.3 175.8 193.4 21.8 16.8 15.2 15.2 11.1 9.7 15.5 18.8 19.3

Bajaj Auto 892 Accumulate 3,358 151.7 180.5 198.3 20.3 17.1 15.5 15.1 11.7 10.0 19.1 19.3 19.1

Eicher Motors 595 Sell 2,095 44.9 77.8 95.2 48.6 28.0 22.9 31.9 20.0 15.8 11.5 16.9 19.3

TVS Motor 211 Sell 392 7.7 14.8 18.7 57.7 30.0 23.7 21.1 14.7 12.2 9.8 17.1 19.0

Source: DART, Company,

Net Revenue increased YoY Net ASP up YoY

Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

EBITDA Margin contracted YoY Volume grew 7.7% YoY

Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

1

6

11

16

21

26

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

1Q

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Net ASP (Rs) Net ASP (YoY)

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

500

2,500

4,500

6,500

8,500

10,500

12,500

14,500

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA margin - RHS

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

1Q

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Mn

un

its

Volume Growth % (YoY)

October 29, 2020 5 Hero MotoCorp

Domestic 2W industry market share Domestic MC- HMCL gain market share

(+90bps YoY)

Source: SIAM,DART, Company Source: SIAM,DART, Company

Domestic scooter- HMCL gain market

share (+90bps YoY) Executive segment doing well

Source: SIAM,DART, Company Source SIAM,DART, Company

Splendor Plus & Glamour gaining

momentum 1 year forward PE

Source: SIAM,DART, Company Source: DART, Company

October 29, 2020 6 Hero MotoCorp

Profit and Loss Account

(Rs Mn) FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenue 2,88,361 2,82,246 3,35,137 3,61,630

Total Expense 2,48,781 2,45,808 2,88,000 3,09,938

COGS 1,96,974 1,96,443 2,33,590 2,52,056

Employees Cost 18,417 18,263 20,820 22,277

Other expenses 33,390 31,102 33,590 35,605

EBIDTA 39,580 36,438 47,137 51,692

Depreciation 8,180 7,995 8,281 8,468

EBIT 31,400 28,443 38,856 43,223

Interest 222 69 40 41

Other Income 7,783 7,901 8,301 8,652

Exc. / E.O. items 6,774 0 0 0

EBT 45,735 36,276 47,118 51,834

Tax 9,404 9,250 12,008 13,210

RPAT 36,331 27,025 35,110 38,624

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

Profit/Loss share of associates 0 0 0 0

APAT 29,557 27,025 35,110 38,624

Balance Sheet

(Rs Mn) FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Sources of Funds

Equity Capital 399 399 399 399

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

Reserves & Surplus 1,40,965 1,61,764 1,77,036 1,94,657

Net Worth 1,41,364 1,62,164 1,77,436 1,95,056

Total Debt 0 0 0 0

Net Deferred Tax Liability 917 917 917 917

Total Capital Employed 1,42,281 1,63,081 1,78,353 1,95,973

Applications of Funds

Net Block 62,981 59,589 56,911 55,045

CWIP 1,603 1,603 1,603 1,603

Investments 20,983 20,983 20,983 20,983

Current Assets, Loans & Advances 98,852 1,23,044 1,47,293 1,70,509

Inventories 10,920 9,279 9,182 10,898

Receivables 16,031 21,652 25,709 27,741

Cash and Bank Balances 63,662 78,623 96,797 1,15,203

Loans and Advances 5,438 11,290 13,405 14,465

Other Current Assets 2,801 2,200 2,200 2,200

Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions 42,138 42,138 48,437 52,166

Payables 30,305 30,305 35,507 38,212

Other Current Liabilities 11,833 11,833 12,930 13,954

sub total

Net Current Assets 56,714 80,906 98,856 1,18,343

Total Assets 1,42,281 1,63,081 1,78,353 1,95,973

E – Estimates

October 29, 2020 7 Hero MotoCorp

Important Ratios

Particulars FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

(A) Margins (%)

Gross Profit Margin 31.7 30.4 30.3 30.3

EBIDTA Margin 13.7 12.9 14.1 14.3

EBIT Margin 10.9 10.1 11.6 12.0

Tax rate 20.6 25.5 25.5 25.5

Net Profit Margin 12.6 9.6 10.5 10.7

(B) As Percentage of Net Sales (%)

COGS 68.3 69.6 69.7 69.7

Employee 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2

Other 11.6 11.0 10.0 9.8

(C) Measure of Financial Status

Gross Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest Coverage 141.4 412.2 971.4 1054.2

Inventory days 14 12 10 11

Debtors days 20 28 28 28

Average Cost of Debt

Payable days 38 39 39 39

Working Capital days (4) 1 (1) 0

FA T/O 4.6 4.7 5.9 6.6

(D) Measures of Investment

AEPS (Rs) 148.0 135.3 175.8 193.4

CEPS (Rs) 188.9 175.3 217.3 235.8

DPS (Rs) 90.0 70.0 85.0 90.0

Dividend Payout (%) 60.8 51.7 48.3 46.5

BVPS (Rs) 707.8 811.9 888.4 976.6

RoANW (%) 21.9 17.8 20.7 20.7

RoACE (%) 22.2 17.7 20.6 20.7

RoAIC (%) 39.2 34.9 46.8 53.3

(E) Valuation Ratios

CMP (Rs) 2946 2946 2946 2946

P/E 19.9 21.8 16.8 15.2

Mcap (Rs Mn) 5,88,435 5,88,435 5,88,435 5,88,435

MCap/ Sales 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6

EV 5,24,774 5,09,812 4,91,638 4,73,232

EV/Sales 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3

EV/EBITDA 13.3 14.0 10.4 9.2

P/BV 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.0

Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 2.4 2.9 3.1

(F) Growth Rate (%)

Revenue (14.3) (2.1) 18.7 7.9

EBITDA (19.7) (7.9) 29.4 9.7

EBIT (27.5) (9.4) 36.6 11.2

PBT (8.7) (20.7) 29.9 10.0

APAT (12.7) (8.6) 29.9 10.0

EPS (12.7) (8.6) 29.9 10.0

Cash Flow

(Rs Mn) FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

CFO 54,101 29,788 43,683 46,084

CFI (28,831) (4,603) (7,103) (8,603)

CFF (24,199) (6,481) (19,878) (21,044)

FCFF 32,942 25,185 38,081 39,481

Opening Cash 43,992 63,662 78,623 96,797

Closing Cash 63,662 78,623 96,797 1,15,203

E – Estimates

DART RATING MATRIX

Total Return Expectation (12 Months)

Buy > 20%

Accumulate 10 to 20%

Reduce 0 to 10%

Sell < 0%

Rating and Target Price History

Month Rating TP (Rs.) Price (Rs.)

Feb-20 Accumulate 2,705 2,411

Mar-20 Buy 2,062 1,816

Mar-20 Buy 2,062 1,554 Apr-20 Accumulate 1,975 1,822

Jun-20 Accumulate 2,460 2,292

Jul-20 Reduce 2,990 2,860

Aug-20 Accumulate 3,193 2,804

Sep-20 Accumulate 3,193 2,860

*Price as on recommendation date

DART Team

Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities amit@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9745

CONTACT DETAILS

Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines

Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales dineshb@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9709

Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales kapil@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9735

Yomika Agarwal VP - Equity Sales yomika@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9772

Jubbin Shah VP - Derivatives Sales jubbins@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9779

Ashwani Kandoi AVP - Equity Sales ashwanik@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9725

Lekha Nahar AVP - Equity Sales lekhan@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9740

Equity Trading Designation E-mail

P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading sridhar@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9728

Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading chandrakant@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9707

Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading shirisht@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9702

Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives kartikm@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9715

Dinesh Mehta Co- Head Asia Derivatives dinesh.mehta@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9765

Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist bhavinm@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9705

1,470

1,850

2,230

2,610

2,990

3,370

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Jan

-20

Fe

b-2

0

Mar-

20

Ap

r-2

0

May-2

0

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Se

p-2

0

(Rs) HMCL Target Price

Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. Sunshine Tower, 28th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (West), Mumbai 400013

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