Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East - NUMOV · Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East...

All rights reserved. Copyright © 2008 Euler Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG and PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG.

GERMAN NEAR AND MIDDLE EAST CONFERENCE , BERLIN

May 24th, 2011

Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East

Dr. Matthias Koehler Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie

Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East

Balancing elevated risks in dynamic markets

Agenda

1 Volume covered

2 Cover Policy

3 Recent Events

4 Risks & Experience

5 Project Trends

6 Outlook

Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, Euler Hermes, IMF WEO April 2011

Volume covered

German Exports, Hermes Cover and Growth in the Midd le East

0

2.500

5.000

7.500

10.000

12.500

15.000

17.500

20.000

22.500

25.000

27.500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

f

EU

R m

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

wei

ghte

d re

gion

al G

DP

, % y

oy c

hang

e

Exports Hermes Cover (left scale) Regional Growth (right scale)

Volume covered

Share of German Exports under Hermes Cover

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

in %

Middle East

Developing and Emerging Markets

Share of Total German Exports

in Euro million

9

2

27

13

57

139

447

420

66

1192

6

22

72

103

199

211

345

617

744

1508

10. Yemen

9. Syria

8. Jordan

7. Bahrain

6. Qatar

5. Kuwait

4. Israel

3. Saudi Arabia

2. Oman

1. UAE

2010

2009

Volume covered

Short Term Credit (up to one year): Open for Cover► Limitations only for Lebanon (L/C)and

Palestine (only small transactions, private Sector)

Cover for Structured and Project Finance available in most countries

Individual Country Cover Policies determined by � Sustainable Lending Principles (OECD) for Public Buyers (only Yemen)� Country Category (OECD-Category)� Possibly by recent events (Bahrain, Syria)

Middle

East C

over Policy

Medium/ Long Term: Open for Cover► Restrictions only Lebanon, Syria (only small transactions),

Jordan and Yemen (case by case)

Overall: Few limitations for everyday business as well as large projects

Cover Policy

Effects from the Arabellion?

� Some form of jihad (uprising) in all North African and Middle East countries

� Germany supports democratic reform in Tunisia and Egypt

� Imposed sanctions on Libya in line with international resolutions

On the basis of a close monitoring of a country‘s s ituation :

� Currently Hermes Cover for projects in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen case by case

� Cover for regular deliveries on short terms are available for the time being

Whereas Hermes Cover for Libya has been suspended as violence escalates

Consistently, Hermes Cover has been granted throughout the largely peaceful

transition process in Tunisia and Egypt

Recent changes:

Bahrain: 4 (3 before)

Syria: 7 (6 before)

OECD Country Risk Category

1 - Not assigned

2 -

3 -

4 -

5 -

6 -

7 -

Per 01.04.2011

Recent Events

Indemnifications Paid

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EU

R th

ousa

nd

Saudi Arabia

Israel

Bahrain

UAE

8.080

�� Power generation:

Prerequisite for further growth

Alternatives to oil and gas grow in importance

�� Waste water treatment and desalination:Caring for a rising population

�� Passenger Aircraft:

Competition for new international junctions

�� Cement Production:

Limited growth with a shift in demand

Project focus in recent years – likely to continue?

Israel Oil refinery, container Cranes, textile machines (nonwoven)

Saudi ArabiaAluminium rolling mill, seamless tube plant, refinery

JordanSugar refinery

Abu Dhabi, UAE caterpillar and heavy-duty cranes, passenger aircraft,

BahrainAluminium mill, passenger aircraft, waste water treatment

OmanCombined gas & steam power plants

Yemen mobile telecom network, cement mill

Dubai, UAEPower generation/ transmission/ distribution, desalination plant, city buses, extension of telecom network, passenger aircraft

Project Trends

IraqNatural gas compressor

QatarTyre recycling, passenger aircraft

Kuwaitpassenger aircraft

Shardja, UAEFreighter aircraft

Outlook: 2011 and beyond

� Usual volatility for a region attracting large projects, but

� Decline also recognisable in volume of regular deliveries

However, escalating internal conflicts could lead to suspenion of cover facilites in some countries

� Vertical diversification – energy intensive industrialisation� Power generation and desalination

� Extension of international trade and transport links

We expect the decline in demand to be temporary as underlying trends are long term:

1st Quarter Figures and Trends

New Cover Volume Middle East: EUR 0.4bn(1st quarter 2010: EUR 0.9bn)

Thank you for your attention!

Further information is provided under:

Export Credit Guarantees:

Hotline: +49 (0) 40/88 34-90 [email protected]

Investment Guarantees:

Hotline: +49 (0)40 / 88 34 - 94 [email protected]

www.agaportal.de

Dr. Matthias Koehler

Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie

Tel.: 0 30 – 20 14 75 76

E-Mail: [email protected]

Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East - NUMOV · Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East...

Documents

Transcript of Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East - NUMOV · Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East...