Heikin Ashi Newsletter 08302015

HEIKIN-ASHI TREND

NEWSLETTER

#146 | 08.30.2015

@educofin

www.educofin.com

heikinashi.wordpress.com

© EDUCOFIN 2015. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

A WEEKLY SUMMARY FOR HEIKIN-ASHI AFICIONADOS FROM WWW.EDUCOFIN.COM 2

Thank you for all your feedback.

The content of this newsletter is of great value to understand what heikin-ashi is and is not, how it

works, and why more and more traders use it.

Heikin-ashi has really taken off. Thousands of traders and investors use it in various markets, settings,

and time frames. A large number of trading platforms and technical analysis software packages have

implemented heikin-ashi.

The first book ever published on Heikin-Ashi “Heikin-Ashi: How to Trade without Japanese Candlestick

Patterns” outlines three important features of this technique, the last two unknown until its

publication:

1. Heikin-ashi as a visual instrument

2. Quantifiable heikin-ashi indicator(s)

3. Replacement or confirmation of many of the 100+ subjective Japanese candlestick patterns

The book includes now a free CD-link that makes the transition to heikin-ashi trading faster and

smoother.

To order your copy today: http://www.educofin.com/heikinashi-book.htm

For charts and more information: www.educofin.com and http://heikinashi.wordpress.com


SHORT-TERM VIEW for next week and beyond

• FYI: Yearly Heikin-Ashi volatility index (VIX) chart. Bullish.

• Daily haDelta shows tops on daily charts

• Price forecasts (95% confidence bands) for September 2015

• Historically, September is the worst month for equities

• Short-term Heikin-Ashi market breadth points to a market pullback.

• White/Gray/Black Swans may fly over at any time.


Volatility Index VIX - Yearly Heikin-Ashi chart

A raising volatility is negative for the equity markets (haDelta is above its short average).


A Heikin-Ashi long-term view: Why S&P-500 looks damaged for 2015

(Note: 2015 has still four months to go.)


Volatility Index VIX forecast for September 2015

Focus on the upper band @32.19 (and higher). All forecasts are based on closing prices.


S&P-500 price forecast for September 2015

The focus should be on the bands. Since the market bias remains negative, 1,885.95 is a support for

September.


QQQ price forecast for September 2015

Focus on the lower band @90.57.


Gold price forecast for September 2015

Focus on the upper band @1,219.81.


S&P-500

This week: Bearish. Very far from the Ichimoku cloud, with haDelta ready to turn down.

Last week: Many changes of mind since June i.e. above and below the Ichimoku cloud. Breakdown.


US DOLLAR INDEX

This week: Short-term bearish. haDelta is ready to reverse.

Last week: Bearish signs: (1) a close below the cloud (2) and early haDelta bearish signal at zero.


GOLD

This week: haDelta is bullish. August price lows and haDelta lows are an indication for more positive

price action.

Last week: A bullish confirmation will be in place with a close above the cloud. Not there yet. haDelta is

ready to turn down above the resistance area (red dashed line). Looking for a consolidation/pullback.


OIL

This week: Preparing for a consolidation.

Last week: Extremely bearish (below all Ichimoku lines). The arrows point to stronger downtrends

ahead.


HEIKIN-ASHI MARKET BREADTH - DAILY

%HAup < 50 = weakness. %HAup > 50 = strength.

The chart is self-explanatory.


HEIKIN-ASHI MARKET BREADTH - WEEKLY

%HAup > 50 = strength.

The medium-term chart shows a different picture, one that anticipates a positive price action

(reversal).


HEIKIN-ASHI MARKET BREADTH – MONTHLY

The bottom is lower @10.


Figure 1: Morningstar® sectors + industry groups (31) – daily, weekly and monthly heikin-ashi

perspectives.


Figure 2: Select Sector SPDRs (9) - daily, weekly, and monthly heikin-ashi perspectives.

Note: The tables in Figures 1 and 2 are based on heikin-ashi change of color indicating a possible change of trend or the

start of a consolidation. Other heikin-ashi criteria can be used to generate similar tables. For more information about heikin-

ashi check the daily personal blog http://heikinashi.wordpress.com and http://www.educofin.com. All tables and charts are

generated at the end of the week. The monthly view (Monthly HA Trend) is not final until the end of the calendar month.

Figure 2a: FX pairs - daily, weekly, and monthly heikin-ashi perspectives.


Figure 3: EURUSD DAILY – Attempt to reverse above the Ichimoku cloud (see haDelta). Positive.

Last week: Bullish (above the cloud) with haDelta at resistance. It’s expected to have a temporary top

here.


Figure 4: GBPUSD DAILY – Whipsaws with a flat and thin Ichimoku cloud. Expecting a move above the

cloud.

Last week: Some positive signs (above the Ichimoku cloud, positive haDelta), but still below the

resistance (upper pane, red dotted line).

.


Figure 5: AUDUSD DAILY – Bearish (below all Ichimoku lines). haDelta looks exhausted.

Last week: The Chikou-span line is still below the price – bearish.


Figure 6: USDJPY DAILY – Bearish. It will be tough to go above the cloud this week.

Last week: Bearish (below the cloud).


Figure 7: BTCUSD (Bitcoin in USD) DAILY – Very bearish. Room to advance.

Last week: Bearish. It looks probable to have another failure in negative territory just below zero

(yellow area). If/when, the signal will translate into lower prices.

.


Figure 8: SPY – The short-term picture (daily) shows a top.

Last week: Can’t find positive signs other than the oversold daily haOscillator.


Figure 9: QQQ – Same as SPY.

Last week: A set of examples using support and resistance trend lines with Heikin-Ashi indicators.


Figure 10: IWM (iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF) – The short-term picture is similar with previous

charts.

Last week: Ready for a short-term bounce. It’s far from the downtrend resistance (red dashed line).


Figure 11: SMH (Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF) – Top on the daily chart. More downside is

expected ahead.

Last week: Two more bearish signals add to the overall negative picture.


Figure 12: XLF (Financial sector ETF) – Top. The long-term chart shows a reversal just below zero. This

translates into a negative trend expected soon.

Last week: The daily chart shows a high probability for a reversal. The arrows point to strong negative

signals ahead.


Figure 13: DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Ind. Average ETF) – Top (see haOscillator daily chart).

Last week: Bearish.


Figure 14: USO (United States Oil ETF) – Any strong price move brings quickly all momentum indicators

into overbought/oversold areas. Usually, these moves are followed by lateral moves (consolidations).

One such lateral move is expected on the daily chart.

Last week: Bearish.


Figure 15: GLD (SPDR Gold Trust ETF) – Short-term bullish.

Last week: It may have steam left to reach haOscillator 90-95 levels.


Figure 16: UUP (US Dollar ETF) – Short-term top here.

Last week: The daily haOscillator shows more downside for UUP.


Figure 17: EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) – Another short-term top.

Last week: Oversold on daily and monthly charts. Bearish.


Figure 18: TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) – Worth noting that the top on the

weekly chart has been preceded by a bearish haOscillator crossover/top.

Last week: Charts remain bullish with focus on the weekly haOscillator that is facing a steep support.


Figure 19: IYR (iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF) – The short rally comes to an end (haOscillator).

Last week: The daily chart is confusing: Both bullish (higher highs, higher lows since July) and caution

due to broken haOscillator support.

.


Figure 20: DAX – In line with other market indexes: Short-term top.

Last week: The monthly chart points to a reversal.


Figure 21: FTSE-100 – Same as the DAX.

Last week: Daily: Ready for a reversal.


Figure 22: Australia All Ordinaries – An oscillator at 100% is a safe bet for a reversal unless magic

keeps it there.

Last week: More downside in the future (haOscillator crossover just below zero).


DISCLAIMER - This newsletter is published only as an educational tool for those who are interested by

and want to know more about heikin-ashi noise filtering / trend technique. The information in this

newsletter represents author’s own opinions and does not recommend any trades or investments and

at no time should the reader infer that any such recommendations are given. The content of this free

newsletter is an illustration of how various heikin-ashi techniques apply in the field of technical analysis.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any

securities. All information presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its

accuracy. The author(s) may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in this newsletter.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. All charts are for illustrative purposes

only. Reproduction, disclosure, or dissemination of this newsletter is allowed with no alteration of its

content and only with a mention of its author(s) and source.

-

If you no longer wish to receive this free weekly heikin-ashi newsletter please unsubscribe using the

link indicated in the original e-mail.

To subscribe to this heikin-ashi newsletter: http://educofin.com/newsletter.htm

Feel free to forward the newsletter to your colleagues and friends who are looking for better

techniques to stay longer with winning trends.

-


A NEWSLETTER FROM www.educofin.com, HOME OF HEIKIN-ASHI

Heikin Ashi Newsletter 08302015

Documents

Transcript of Heikin Ashi Newsletter 08302015