Hedde_2014 RAA Global Cat Summary.pdf

8/12/2019 Hedde_2014 RAA Global Cat Summary.pdf

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2014 RAA Cat Modeling Conference

US/Global Natural Catastrophe Year in Review

Carl Hedde, SVP, Head of Risk Accumulation , .

Source: FEMASource: FEMA

The Loss Database Today

MR NatCatSERVICE

The worlds largest database on natural catastrophes

events; for USA and selectedcountries in Europe all loss eventssince 1970.

Retrospectively, all great disasterssince 1950.

In addition, all major historical

events start ng rom eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3,000historical data sets).

Currently more than 33,000events

2


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US Headlines - 2013

Insured losses in the United States in 2013 totaled $12.8 billion far below the2000 to 2012 average loss of $29.4 billion (in 2013 Dollars).

US Natural Catastrophe Update

Quiet Atlantic hurricane season despite expectations for an active year; USdrought of major hurricane landfalls is now 8 years, unprecedented in thereliable historical record.

Insured losses from thunderstorm events exceeded $10.0 billion, despite thelowest observed tornado count in a decade.

- ,September.

Drought conditions ease in the Desert Southwest, but worsen in California.

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As of December 31,

2013

Number of

Events Fatalities

Estimated Overall

Losses (US $m)

Estimated Insured

Losses (US $m)

Natural Disaster Losses in the United States, 2013


evere

Thunderstorm69 110 16,341 10,274

Winter Storm 11 43 2,935 1,895

Flood 19 23 1,929 240

Earthquake &

Geophysical6 1 Minor Minor

Tropical Cyclone 1 1 Minor Minor

Wildfire, Heat, &

Drought22 29 620 385

Totals 128 207 21,825 12,794

4Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 4 2014 Munich Re


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Notable Thunderstorm Events 2013

May 18-20: Large outbreak of over 60 tornadoes across the Midwest and southern Great

Plains. Moore, Oklahoma, was hit by an EF5 tornado (5th tornado strike of EF2 or above in


. , , .

insured losses from the outbreak are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion.

Source: Property Claims ServiceMunich Re NatCatSERVICE

Source: FEMASource: FEMA

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Notable Thunderstorm Events 2013

November 16-17: The largest

tornado outbreak ever


,

based on preliminary counts)

caused extensive damage in

Illinois, Indiana, and

neighboring states. Fall tornado

outbreaks are not uncommon,

but usually occur further south.

Estimated insured losses from

Source: NWS

the event are US 900 million.

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Loss Events in the U.S. 1980 2013Number of events

250

Number

2013 Total


100

150

200

19

22

50

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Meteorologicalevents(Tropical storm, winterstorm, thunderstorm)

Hydrological events(Flood,mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)

6

81

Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 7 2014 Munich Re

Loss Events in the US 1980 2013

Overall and insured losses

200

US$bn


100

150

Source: MR NatCatSERVICE

50

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Overall losses(in 2013 values)*

Insured losses(in 2013 values)*

*Losses adjustedtoinflationbased oncountry CPI.

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Significant Natural Catastrophes, 2013$1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities

Date EventEstimated EconomicLosses (US $m)

Estimated InsuredLosses (US $m)


February 24 25 Winter Storm 1,300 690

March 18 19 Thunderstorms 2,200 1,600

April 7 11 Winter Storm 1,600 1,200

April 16 18 Thunderstorms 1,100 560

May 18 20 Thunderstorms 3,100 1,800

May 28 31 Thunderstorms 2,800 1,400

August 6 7 Thunderstorms 1,300 740

September 9 16 Flooding 1,500 160

November 17 - 18 Thunderstorms 1,300 931

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 9 2014 Munich Re

Notable Wildfires in 2013

Colorado: High Park fire near Fort

Collins destroyed 257 homes and

Waldo Can on fire near Colorado


Springs destroyed over 300 homes,

becoming the most damaging fire in

state history. Insured losses from

both fires are estimated at $450

million.

California: Rim fire near Yosemite

National Park lasted nine weeks over

, ,

acres and destroying 111 buildings.

Due to remote location, insurance

impacts were minimal.

Source: USFSSource: USFS

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Colorado Floods September 2013

Stalled frontal system and amplemoisture combined to produceup to 17 of rain over parts of


the Colorado Front Range overa 4 day period, almost theregions expected annual rainfalltotal.

Heaviest rainfall event everobserved in Colorado.

1,500 houses were destroyed,an ano er 1 , amage .

Economic Losses are estimated

at $1.5 billion; insured losses(excluding NFIP) of $160 million.

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Nine significant natural catastrophes occurred in the United States in 2013.

Significant Natural Catastrophes, 1950 2013

Number of Events ($1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities)


Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 12 2014 Munich Re


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There has not been a major hurricane landfall in the US since Wilma in October 2005.

Number of US Landfalling Tropical Cyclones1900 2013


Source: NOAA 13 2014 Munich Re

2013 US Tornado Count


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US Thunderstorm Loss TrendsInsured Annual Totals 1980 2013

Average insured thunderstorm losses have increased sevenfold since 1980.


o a :$10.3 bn

Source: Property Claims ServiceMunich Re NatCatSERVICE

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Global Natural Catastro hes in 2013

Photo: NASA


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Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 2013Significant events

Typhoon Haiyan,Philippines

Super typhoon making landfall withrecord-breaking wind speeds over

With over 6,000 fatalities andmany people still missing itwas the deadliest event in

Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Hailstorms,Germany

Floodings in

2013

Two severe hailstorms affectingsouthwestern and northernGermany within two days

With insured losses of US$3.7bn, it was the largestinsured loss event in 2013

Torrential persistent rainfalls With est. US$ 15.2bn it was

Central Europe

Series oftornadoes, USA

, ,Elbe to reach record water levels

loss event in 2013

Despite the weakest tornadoseason in a decade, three verysevere tornado outbreakshappened in the USA

With US$ 10.3bn of insuredlosses in the USA it was the6th costliest thunderstormseason on record in the USA

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January2014

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Insured losses

Loss Events Worldwide 2013

Five costliest natural catastrophes for the insurance industry


a e eg on ven a a es m

27-28.7.2013 Germany Hailstorms - 3,700

June 2013Central

EuropeFlooding 25 3,000

18-22.5.2013 USASevere storms,

tornadoes28 1,800

18-19.3.2013 USASevere storms,

tornadoes2 1,600

19-24.6.2013 Canada Flooding 4 1,600

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January2014 18 2014 Munich Re


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Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines8 12 November 2013

Region Philippines,Vietnam,China


Overall losses US$ 10bn

Insured losses US$ 700m

Fatalities 6,095

Deadliest event of 2013


Source: Reuters

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Region Southwesternand NorthernGermany

Hailstorms, Germany

27 28 July 2013


Overall losses US$ 4.8bn

Insured losses US$ 3.7bn

Fatalities 0


Costliest insured loss of 2013

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Region CentralEurope

River Floods in Europe30 May 19 June 2013


Overall losses US$ 15.2bn

Insured losses US$ 3bn

Fatalities 25

Source: Reuters Costliest direct economic lossof 2013


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Number of events: 880

The number is well above the 10-year average (20032012): 790

Loss Events Worldwide 1980 2013

Facts


Overall direct losses: US$ 125bn

-

Fatalities: 20,000

The number is very low in comparison with previous years (20032012): 106,000

The deadliest event was Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, with more than 6,000 deaths

-

Insured los ses: US$ 31bn

The insured losses are below the 10-year-average (20032012): US$ 56bn (adjusted to inflation)


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Loss Events Worldwide 1980 2013Number of events

Number

1 000


400

600

800

Meteorologicalevents(Tropical storm, winterstorm, thunderstorm)

Hydrological events(Flood,mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)

200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


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US$ bn

Loss Events Worldwide 1980 2013

Overall and insured losses


200

300


Overall losses(in 2013 values)*

Insured losses(in 2013 values)*

*Losses adjustedtoinflationbased oncountry CPI.

100

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

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Loss Events Worldwide 2013Geographical overview


EarthquakeChina, 20 April

Winter Storm Christian (St. Jude)Europe, 2730 October

FloodsCanada, 1924 June

FloodsEurope,30 May19 June

Meteorite impactRussian Federation, 15February

Flash floodsCanada, 89 July

Severe storms,tornadoesUSA, 1822 May

FloodsIndia, 1430 June

HailstormsGermany,2728 July

Typhoon HaiyanPhilippines,812 November

Severe storms, tornadoesUSA, 2831 May

Hurricanes Ingrid &Manuel

Typhoon FitowChina, Japan,59 October

FloodsAustralia,

FloodsUSA, 916 September


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Geophysical events(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

Meteorological events(storm)

Hydrological events(flood, mass movement)

Natural catastrophes

Climatological events(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Selection of significantloss events

Extraterrestrial events(Meteorite impact)

880Loss events

Mexico, 1219 September

Heat wave

India, AprilJune

Earthquake (series)Pakistan, 2428 September

Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE, 2014

1 1 January

Summary

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 2013


n o a e a o ear nsure osses o 1 . n - 1 -average: n).

In the Philippines super typhoon Haiyan produced record wind speeds higher than 300 km/h,

destroyed more than half a million homes and left over 6,000 people dead.

With insured losses over US$ 6.6bn, Germany was the second largest contributor to

worldwide insured losses of US$ 31bn.

Compared to the long-term average the year 2013 was clearly below average in both, loss of

life and loss of assets.

The Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most inactive seasons in decades.


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Photo: NOAA

Thank you very much for patiently listening

2014 RAA Cat Modelling ConferenceCarl HeddeHead of Risk Accumulation, Munich Re

Hedde_2014 RAA Global Cat Summary.pdf

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