Heating in Poland - Forum Energii

44
Heating in Poland Edition 2019 www.forum-energii.eu

Transcript of Heating in Poland - Forum Energii

Heating in Poland Edition 2019

www.forum-energii.eu

Heating in Poland

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AUTHOR:

Rafał Macuk, Forum Energii

COOPERATION:

Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera PhD, Andrzej Rubczyński, Forum Energii

EDITING:

Brien Barnett

GRAPHIC DESIGN:

Karol Koszniec

MANY THANKS

We would like to thank the Institute for Structural Research, Chamber of Commerce Polish District Heating, and the National Energy Conservation Agency for their cooperation and assistance in obtaining data necessary to prepare this publication.

DATE OF PUBLICATION:

December 2019

Forum Energii is a think-tank focused on the energy sector. Our mission is to create the foundations for an effective, safe, clean and innovative

energy sector based on data and analyses.

All analyses and publications by Forum Energii are made available free-of-charge and may be reproduced provided that the source and authors are

identified.

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Foreword (Dr. Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera) 05

Heating - definition and access to data 06

Main conclusions 07

The greatest amount of heat is generated in individual households 08

Buildings and energy efficiency 09

Heat production is dominated by solid fuels 10

The most of buildings were built before 1988 11

Energy standard of buildings in Poland is low 12

Most of the energy in households is used for heating 13

Fuels and emissions 14

The heating sector is dominated by coal 15

CO2 emissions are still high 16

The main source of smog is the combustion of solid fuels in individually heated households 17

Households in Poland consume the most coal in the European Union 18

Energy poverty 19

Defining energy poverty 20

Most of the energy poor live in single-family buildings constructed between 1961 and 1995 21

Most of the energy poor live in single-family houses in the countryside 22

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECEMBER 2019

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District heating current state and challenges 23The main heat consumers of district heating are households 24

Only 66% of heat is generated through cogeneration 25

No action has been taken to change the heating fuel mix 26

As much as 80% of the heating systems in Poland are inefficient 27

Smaller cities, lower efficiency 28

The heating sector has adapted to the current challenges, but the most serious are yet to come 29

Heat sales are falling despite an increase in the number of customers 30

District heating financial aspects 31

Average prices of heat from heat-only units 32

Large district heating systems in cities reduce average heat prices for the region 33

The price of heat from coal is becoming less and less competitive 34

Heat producers’ costs exceed their income 35

District heating in the European Union 36

Poland has the largest number of district heating customers among all EU countries 37

Poland is second in Europe when it comes to the amount of consumed heat produced in district heating systems 38

Despite the extensive heating system in Poland, the share of cogeneration compared to the EU is relatively small 39

For more than 30 years, the fuel mix in the EU has been changing rapidly 40

District heating fuel mix of selected EU countries in 1990-2017 41

District heating fuel mix of selected EU countries in 1990-2017 42

DECEMBER 2019

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Foreword

Poland suffers from smog, especially in winter. To start to improve air quality, heating must first be seen in the broad perspective, composed of

both district heating networks and household heat supply. As much as 70% of heat is generated in individual heating systems. The remaining 30% is

produced in district heating systems—one of the most developed district heating networks in Europe. This distinction is now threatened with gradual

degeneration and the loss of opportunities to provide an external development impulse. As much as 80% of the heating systems in Poland do not meet

the requirements of the Energy Efficiency Directive and this eliminates the possibility of support from EU funds.

One of the main barriers to clean heat is not only the lack of a comprehensive strategy for this area but, above all, the lack of publicly available data to

describe the condition of this sector. It is striking that the supply of heat—a major environmental and social issue in Poland—is so poorly described and

recognised. There is no data on the status of the energy efficiency of individual buildings, heating sources, and many other source points. Fragmentary

information is collected by the Central Statistical Office, the Energy Regulatory Office, and the Energy Market Agency. However, they are not easily

accessible. The lack of knowledge about the sector results in low interest in key institutions and it is difficult to propose corrective solutions if the

problem is not well diagnosed.

We present this report in order to share the collected data in an accessible form and to support the discussion on the strategy of supplying clean heat

to Polish homes.

Enjoy your read,

Dr. Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera

President of Forum Energii

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Heating - definition and access to data

We define heating in a broad sense, both as district heating, which includes district heating networks with generation sources, and non-system

heating, i.e., individual heating systems in households.

This report is based on the most up-to-date data and materials published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Energy Market Agency (ARE), Energy

Regulatory Office (ERO), National Energy Conservation Agency (KAPE), National Centre for Balancing and Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chamber

of Commerce Polish District Heating (IGCP), Eurostat, and others.

While preparing this publication, we have noticed problems that may be a barrier not only in creating an objective and complete picture of the heating

sector in Poland but also in introducing necessary changes in this field. These are:

•• Lack of access to data—either they are not collected or not made public; and,

•• Lack of methodological consistency in published data—statistical institutions apply their own method, which makes it impossible to create

a coherent picture of the examined issue.

For example, the ERO data on district heating included in this report concern only licensed companies with a capacity greater than 5 MW. Therefore,

enterprises with smaller capacities were omitted.

The lack of data is a barrier to the transformation of the energy sector in Poland. The supply of heat is a public domain and concerns every Polish

household. Data on, e.g., energy efficiency, pollutant emissions, or forms of heating should be regularly collected and made available to the public.

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Main conclusions

•• For years, politicians in Poland have not been interested in the problem of heating, seeing it as difficult to address (dispersed structure),

socially sensitive (heating costs), and political (pressure to use traditional coal instead of cleaner forms of heat generation).

•• The effect of the negligence in improving the quality of heating is the worst air pollution in the EU as a result of emissions from more than

4 million homes heated by their own solid fuel heat sources. Domestic households in Poland account for 87% of the coal consumed by all

households in the European Union.

•• Due to the scale of the problem and the dispersion of individual heat sources, responsibility for changes in heating is shared between different

levels of government and local administration. The lack of a coordinator for heating issues in general has resulted not only in poor air quality

but also in low energy efficiency of buildings, large losses of primary energy, as well as a lack of development impulses for small and medium-

sized enterprises cooperating with construction and heating.

•• There is a lack of both long-term energy efficiency policy and modernisation of the heating sector, as well as indications to domestic industry

of key technologies, which are the foundation of the transformation and, at the same time, the source of business development.

•• The less-than-fully planned policy of privatisation of the heating sector in the 1990s became a development impulse for large heating companies

but it left undercapitalised small heating systems to their fate. As a result, currently about 80% of heating companies in Poland (responsible

for the production of 38% of district heating) are classified as inefficient.

•• The lack of a vision for the development of district heating and its long-term goals has led the government administration to focus almost

exclusively on controlling prices in heating systems.

•• The lack of a precise national energy policy, combined with keeping heat prices as low as possible, stopped the modernisation of the heating

system and led to accumulated problems.

•• Ineffective social policies to prevent energy poverty (which affects about 12% of the population) are blocking the modernisation of heating.

•• It is necessary to define modernisation goals for the heating sector in the perspective of 2030 and to develop mechanisms to support their

implementation and business models that introduce changes.

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The greatest amount of heat is generated in individual households

•• District heating is a quarter of the heat stream.

•• The state’s energy and environmental policies should cover both district heating systems and individual heating.

INDIVIDUAL HEATING: 76%

HOUSEHOLDS: 49%

HOUSEHOLDS: 17%

TRADE, SERVICES AND OTHERS: 7%

TRADE, SERVICES AND OTHERS: 2%

INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION: 20%

INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION: 5%

DISTRICT HEATING: 24%

HEA

T CO

NSU

MPT

ION

: 10

0%

Chart 1. Structure of heat consumption in Poland Source: based on data from the National Agency for Energy Conservation (KAPE), Central Statistical Office (GUS) and Energy Regulatory Office (ERO).

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Buildings and energy efficiency

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Heat production is dominated by solid fuels

•• As many as 3.5 million buildings use inefficient solid-fuel heat sources for heating.

Chart 2. Domestic heating solution by energy carrier in 2015Source: based on CSO data.

ELECTRICITY2%

NATURAL GAS9%

DISTRICT HEATING 41%

SOLID FUELS 47%

OTHER1%

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The most buildings were built before 1988

•• Until 1988, energy efficiency was of marginal importance in construction. This translates into high energy consumption for heating purposes

today.

0

1500

1000

500

Before 1918

Thou

sand

s of

bui

ldin

gs

1918–1944 1945–1970 1971–1978 1979–1988 1989–2002 2003–2007 2008–2011 underconstruction

unspecified

Chart 3. Age structure of the housing stock as of 2012 Source: based on National Census of Population and Housing 2011, CSO, Warsaw.

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Energy standard of buildings in Poland is low

•• Almost two-thirds of buildings in Poland are characterised by low energy efficiency.

•• Poorly performing thermomodernisation has hindered the improvement of energy efficiency for many years.

Chart 4. The standard of thermal insulation of buildings in Poland in 2017Source: based on data from the Institute of Environmental Economics.

VERY HIGH1%

HIGH11%

MEDIUM25%

VERY LOW41%

LOW22%

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ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES10%

INDOOR HEATING66%

WATER HEATING15%

COOKING MEALS9%

Most of the energy in households is used for heating

•• The relatively high share of energy for space heating is due to the low energy efficiency of buildings and Poland’s climate zone.

•• The constant increase in average daily temperatures observed in recent years will reduce heating energy consumption.

Chart 5. Energy consumption structure in households in 2017 Source: based on CSO data.

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Fuels and emissions

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OILS0.5%

OTHER6.0%

COAL 47.7%

OTHER1.1%

COAL72.5%

GAS31.1%

GAS8.6%

OILS4.8%

BIOMASS AND OTHER RES8.1%

BIOMASSAND OTHER

RES19.6%

INDIVIDUAL HEATING2017

DISTRICT HEATING2018

The heating sector is dominated by coal

•• The consumption of coal for heating purposes is 24 million tonnes, of which as much as 12 million tonnes is burned in households heated

individually and by other small consumers of coal.

Chart 6. Fuel consumption for heating purposes Source: based on data from KAPE, CSO, and ERO.

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HOUSEHOLDS DISTRICT HEATING

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mill

ion

tonn

es o

f CO

2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Chart 7. CO2 emissions from heating, including district heating companies and householdsSource: based on data from EEA and ERO.

CO2 emissions are still high

•• CO2 emissions from individual household heating remain consistently high.

•• The specific CO2 emission per GJ of district heating has decreased by about 10% since 2007, due to a lack of investment leading to

the substitution of generation sources.

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The main source of smog is the combustion of solid fuels in individually heated households

•• Other significant sources of air pollution are industry and transport.

PM2.5

16%

2%

10%

4%

21%

47%

PM10

16%

12%

8%

5%

13%

46%

BENZO(A)PYRENE AND OTHER POPS*

12%2%

1%0.1%

0.9%

84%

COMBUSTION PROCESSES IN INDUSTRY

COMBUSTION PROCESSES IN ENERGY PRODUCTION/ENERGY TRANSITION

COMBUSTION PROCESSES IN INDIVIDUAL HEATING

AGRICULTURE OTHER

ROAD TRANSPORT

Chart 8. Sources of air pollution in 2017 Source: based on KOBIZE data. *POP – persistent organic pollutant

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

UE POLAND

NATURALGAS

ELECTRICITY SOLIDBIOMASS

LIGHT HEATING OIL

DISTRICTHEATING

HARD COAL

LPG HEATPUMPS

SOLARTHERMAL

OTHER

Chart 9. Comparison of the structure of energy consumption in households in the EU and Poland in 2017Source: based on Eurostat and CSO data.

Households in Poland consume the most coal in the European Union

•• Polish households consume 87% of the coal burned in EU households, which is directly connected to air pollution and smog formation.

•• The high share of district heating in the domestic heating of households should be assessed positively.

•• Poland stands out in comparison with the EU in terms of the relatively low share of natural gas and electricity in final consumption in

households.

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Energy poverty

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Figure 1. Definition of energy povertySource: Institute for Structural Research (IBS).

ENERGY POVERTY

LOW INCOME

HIGH ENERGYCOST

LOW ENERGYEFFICIENCY

UBÓSTWO ENERGETYCZNE NISKIE DOCHODY GOSPODARSTW DOMOWYCH

WYSOKI KOSZT ENERGII NISKA EFEKTYWNOŚĆ ENERGETYCZNA

Defining energy poverty

•• 4.6 million people, i.e., 12% of the Polish population, suffer from energy poverty.

A household is considered to be energy poor when it has difficulties in meeting its energy needs due to low income or the characteristics of

the housing. Energy needs are the total consumption of heat, as well as electricity, necessary for a decent standard of living, i.e., heating the

apartment, heating water, lighting, preparing meals, and using basic household equipment. If the cost of meeting an energy need is so high that

household members are faced with the dilemma of whether to reduce this need or save on other goods such as food, medicine, or education,

then we are talking about energy poverty.

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Thou

sand

s of

hou

seho

lds

0To 1960 1961-1995 After 1995

100

200

300

400

500

SINGLE-FAMILY BUILDINGS MULTI-FAMILY BUILDINGS

Chart 10. Number of energy-poor households by type and age of building in 2018Source: IBS.

Most of the energy poor live in single-family buildings constructed between 1961 and 1995

•• According to the current regulations, only the energy poor living in multi-family buildings can receive energy allowances.

•• All energy poor should be supported.

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Most of the energy poor live in single-family houses in the countryside

•• In cities, the problem concerns multi-family buildings.

MULTI-FAMILY BUILDINGCOUNTRYSIDE

6%

SINGLE-FAMILY BUILDINGCOUNTRYSIDE

50%

MULTI-FAMILY BUILDINGCITY28%

SINGLE-FAMILY BUILDING CITY16%

Chart 11. Energy poverty by building type and location in 2016Source: based on IBS data.

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District heating current state and challenges

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The main heat consumers of district heating are households

OF WHICH THROUGH COGENERATION

238 617.4 TJ

HEAT PRODUCTION

376 010.2 TJ

HEAT SUPPLIED TO CUSTOMERS CONNECTED TO THE NETWORK

233 674.2 TJHEAT GIVEN UP TO

THE NETWORK

267 222.2 TJ

HEAT CONSUMPTION FOR OWN USE AND INDUSTRY

144 419.2 TJ

LOSSES 33 548.0 TJ

RECOVERED HEAT

35 631.2 TJ

Figure 2. Production and distribution of heat in 2018Source: based on ERO data.

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Only 66% of heat is generated through cogeneration

•• The ineffective cogeneration-support mechanisms used in the past resulted in the share of heat from these units remaining unchanged for

years.

PJ

0

500

400

300

200

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 2017 20182013 2014

COGENERATION TOTAL

Chart 12. Heat production from cogeneration in the heat stream Source: based on ERO data.

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No action has been taken to change the heating fuel mix

•• The use of gas has increased by 3.5 p.p. and of RES by 3 p.p. over the last decade.

0%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

OIL NATURAL GAS BIOMASS AND OTHER RES WASTE OTHERCOAL

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 2017 20182013 2014

Chart 13. Heating fuels by type Source: based on ERO data.

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EFFICIENT SYSTEMS

INEFFICIENT SYSTEMS

As much as 80% of the heating systems in Poland are inefficient

•• The high share of inefficient systems and the lack of pressure to change the situation pose a threat to the functioning of district heating in

Poland.

•• The legal limitation of state aid for inefficient district heating systems hinders their modernisation and transition to low-emission technologies.

An efficient district heating and cooling system are ones using at least 50% renewable energy, 50% waste heat, 75% cogenerated heat or 50%

of a combination of such energy and heat.

Figure 3. Efficient and inefficient district heating systems in Poland in 2015.Source: IGCP.

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Smaller cities, lower efficiency

•• Among the challenges is the high share of inefficient systems in the production of heat for small and medium-sized towns.

99.4%

70.9%

46.0%

27.5%13.8%

29.1%

54.0%

72.5%86.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

above 500 thousand 200-499 thousand 100-199 thousand 20-99 thousand below 20 thousand

CITY POPULATION

0.6%

INEFFICIENT SYSTEMEFFICIENT SYSTEM

Chart 14. Share of heat supplied from efficient systems in cities of different sizes in 2016Source: Prepared based on data from the Energy Market Agency (ARE) (including generation capacity from 1 MW), Forum Energii.

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Mill

ion

tonn

es

0

50

40

30

20

10

CO2

0

50

100

150

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SO2 NOX DUST

Thou

sand

tonn

es

The heating sector has adapted to the current challenges, but the most serious are yet to come

•• Heating companies have directed their main investment efforts to comply with stricter gas- (SOx, NO

x) and dust-emission standards.

•• Few investments in new gas and biomass generation sources has led to a relatively small decrease in CO2 emissions in the past decade.

•• Due to the large share of coal in the production of heat, the Polish heating sector will have to bear increasingly higher costs of purchasing

CO2 emission allowances.

Chart 15. Gas and dust emissions from district heatingSource: based on ERO data.

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Heat sales are falling despite an increase in the number of customers

•• The strategic challenge for the heating sector is how to serve a market in which energy efficiency is constantly increasing.

•• Despite the increase of the district heating network and the heated area of buildings, the volume of heat sold has been decreasing.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SALES OF HEAT FROM THE NETWORK AREA OF BUILDINGS LENGTH OF THE NETWORK

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Chart 16. Heat sales compared to the heated area of buildings and network length (index values compared to 2007)Source: based on data from ERO and the Central Statistical Office.

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District heatingfinancial aspects

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Average prices of heat from heat-only units

•• Heat prices reflect to a small extent the recent rapid changes in fuel and CO2 emission allowances prices.

•• The lack of biomass co-firing in the power industry has increased the price attractiveness of biomass in district heating. It can be assumed

that if co-firing is resumed, the price of biomass heat will start to rise.

PLN

/GJ

0

200

150

50

100

COAL GAS OIL RES

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Chart 17. Average prices of heat from heat-only units (without transmission) by fuel Source: based on ERO data.

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Large district heating systems in cities reduce average heat prices for the region

•• At the provincial level, there is a large disproportion between the average maximum and minimum heat price of about 30%.

•• The heat price is influenced by the large share of inefficient heating systems.

50.44 PLN/GJ 65.45 PLN/GJ

POMORSKIE65.45 PLN/GJ WARMIŃSKO−MAZURSKIE

56.93 PLN/GJ

ŁÓDZKIE54.38 PLN/GJ

LUBELSKIE54.05 PLN/GJ

PODKARPACKIE63.54 PLN/GJ

ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE60.06 PLN/GJ

MAŁOPOLSKIE57.99 PLN/GJ

PODLASKIE61.25 PLN/GJ

MAZOWIECKIE50.44 PLN/GJ

KUJAWSKO−POMORSKIE61.16 PLN/GJ

WIELKOPOLSKIE60.91 PLN/GJ

DOLNOŚLĄSKIE59.29 PLN/GJ

OPOLSKIE58.58 PLN/GJ

ŚLĄSKIE62.66 PLN/GJ

LUBUSKIE63.48 PLN/GJ

ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE59.85 PLN/GJ

POLAND - 58.04 PLN/GJ

Figure 4. Average price of heat sold from a district heating network by province (voivodship) in 2018 Source: based on ERO data.

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The price of heat from coal is becoming less and less competitive

•• The trend of increasing the price of heat from coal will intensify because of the rising cost of CO2 emission allowances and increasingly

stringent environmental standards.

PLN

/GJ

HIGH-METHANE NATURAL GAS

BIOMASS HARD COAL OTHER RES MUNICIPAL WASTE

ESTIMATED COST OF CO2

HEATING COSTAVERAGE TRANSMISSION CHARGE

AVERAGE PRICE OF HEAT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Chart 18. Average price of district heat from different fuels in 2018Source: based on ERO data.

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Heat producers’ costs exceed their income

•• The permanent lack of profitability from production prevents investment in clean technologies.

•• Revenues from distribution allow the network to develop successively.

PROFIT

TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

TOTAL REVENUES TOTAL COSTS

-0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6-1.0

0.0

-0.4

1.10.5

-0.4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

PLN

Bill

ion

PLN

Bill

ion

PRODUCTION

Chart 19. Total revenues, costs, and profit of district heating companies in 2018 by type of activitySource: based on ERO data.

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District heating in the European Union

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Poland has the largest number of district heating customers among all EU countries

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Net

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Latv

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Croatia

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Switz

erla

nd

Icel

and

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enia

Irela

nd

Mill

ion

peo

ple

Chart 20. Population using district heating in Europe in selected European countries in 2015Source: based on data from Euroheat & Power, European Commission.

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Poland is second in Europe when it comes to the amount of consumed heat produced in district heating systems

0

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erla

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aria

Croatia

Slov

enia

Irela

nd

TW

h

Chart 21. District heat consumption in selected European countries in 2015 Source: based on data from Euroheat & Power, European Commission.

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Despite the extensive heating system in Poland, the share of cogeneration compared to the EU is relatively small

0%

10%

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100%G

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uani

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Esto

nia

Latv

ia

Switz

erla

nd

Bulg

aria

Croatia

Irela

nd

Chart 22. Share of cogeneration in district heating in the European Union in 2017 Source: based on data from Euroheat & Power, European Commission.

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Chart 23. Structure of fuels used to produce district heating in the European Union Source: based on Eurostat and European Commission data.

OIL GAS NUCLEAR RES NON-RENEWABLE WASTE OTHERSOLID FUELS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

For more than 30 years, the fuel mix in the EU has been changing rapidly

•• In recent years, RES has been developing quite dynamically.

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CZECHIA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%DENMARK POLAND

20

16

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90

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92

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00

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OIL GAS NUCLEAR RES NON-RENEWABLE WASTE OTHERSOLID FUELS

Chart 24. Structure of fuels used to produce district heating in Poland, Chechia and Denmark Source: based on Eurostat and European Commission data.

District heating fuel mix of selected EU countries in 1990-2017

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District heating fuel mix of selected EU countries in 1990-2017

LITHUANIAGERMANY SLOVAKIA

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20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

16

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

16

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

OIL GAS NUCLEAR RES NON-RENEWABLE WASTE OTHERSOLID FUELS

Chart 25. Structure of fuels used to produce district heating in Germany, Lithuania, and Slovakia Source: based on Eurostat and European Commission data.

Heating in Poland Edition 2019