Heat Roadmap Europe

2050

Presented by: Sven Werner, Halmstad University

sven.werner@hh.se EUSEW Heat Action seminar, June 27, 2013

STUDY FOR THE EU27

by

for

Aalborg University David Connolly

Brian Vad Mathiesen

Poul Alberg Østergaard

Bernd Möller

Steffen Nielsen

Henrik Lund

Halmstad University Urban Persson

Daniel Nilsson

Sven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbH

Jan Grözinger

Thosmas Boersmans

Michelle Bosquet

PlanEnergi Daniel Trier

STUDY FOR THE EU27

Why this study?

The heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050.

This study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, and a smarter energy system

The EU is wasting energy (heat)...

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Primary Energy

Supply

Final Consumption End Use

Ener

gy B

alan

ce f

or

the

EU

27

in

20

10

(E

J)

Non-specified

Non-energy use

Transport

Electricity

Heat for Industry

Heat for Buildings

… and 6000 District Heating

systems already exist in the EU

What is this Study?

Two Reports:

Pre-study 1 (2012): Is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenario?

Pre-study 2 (2013): Is DHC beneficial in a low-heat demand scenario?

Methodology

GIS Mapping

District Heating Demands

District Heating Resources

Energy System Modelling

BAU (References)

District Heating Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

Urban areas (Heating Demands)

Power and Heat Generation

Waste Management

Industrial waste heat potential

Geothermal heat

Solar Thermal

the study indicates that the market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.

GIS Mapping:

Many Heat Sources

Energy Systems Analyses Model

CHP

Boiler

Electro-

lyser

Heat

pump and

electric

boiler

PP

RES

electricity

Fuel

RES heat

Hydro waterHydro

storage

Hydro

power plant

H2 storage

Electricity

storage

system

Import/

Export

fixed and

variableElectricity

demand

Cooling

device

Cooling

demand

Transport

demand

Process

heat

demand

Industry

Cars

Heat

storage

Heat

demand

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

Pre-Study 1

(2012)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a business-as-usual

scenario?

Year 2030 & 2050:

Steps 1 & 2

EU Energy Roadmap

2050

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

2010

Present

12% DH

2030

30% DH

& RE

2050

50% DH

& RE

IEA HREDis

tric

t H

eati

ng P

rod

uct

ion (

TW

h)

District Heating Production for Heating

Buildings from 2010 to 2050

Boiler

Solar thermal

Geothermal heat

Heat pumps

Waste incineration

Industrial surplus heat

Additional CHP

Existing CHP

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

IEA

12% DH

EP CPI

10% DH

HRE

30% DH

with RE

EP CPI

10% DH

HRE

50% DH

with RE

2010 2030 2050

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt)

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy S

up

ply

(T

Wh)

Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from

2010 to 2050

EP CPI vs. HRE RE

Existing CHP & DH

Additional CHP & DH

Biomass

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

CO2 Emission

Cost and Jobs

Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050

In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050

Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR

Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total

Approx. 220,000 jobs.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

IEA EP CPI HRE RE EP CPI HRE RE

2010 2030 2050

An

nu

al H

eati

ng

Bu

ild

ing

Co

sts

(Bil

lio

n E

uro

)

Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050

Fuel Fixed operation costs Annual investment costs

HRE1 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP

Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions

Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050

Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050

Further integration of RES

LESS FUEL

LESS MONEY

MORE EU JOBS

MORE RE

Pre-Study 2

(2013)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a low-heat demand

scenario?

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE

2030 2050

Dis

tric

t H

eati

ng

Su

pp

ly f

or

Res

iden

tial

an

d

Ser

vic

es B

uil

din

gs

(TW

h/y

ear)

Industry

Waste

Geothermal

Solar

Heat Pumps

Boiler

CHP

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:

Primary Energy Supply & CO2

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

EU-EE

(13% DH)

HRE-EE

(30% DH)

EU-EE

(13% DH)

HRE-EE

(50% DH)

2030 2050

Car

bo

n D

iox

ide

Em

issi

on

s (X

, M

t/yea

r)

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy S

up

ply

(T

Wh

/yea

r)

Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:

Heat & Cooling Costs -15%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

EU-EE

(13% DH)

HRE-EE

(30% DH)

EU-EE

(13% DH)

HRE-EE

(50% DH)

2030 2050

To

tal

Co

sts

for

Hea

tin

g a

nd

Co

oli

ng

in

th

e

Res

iden

tial

and

Ser

vic

es S

ecto

rs (

B€

/yea

r)

End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System Investments

Cooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat Plants

Fuel CO2

Renewables and Energy Efficiency

Additional Renewables

100 TWh Geothermal

100 TWh large-scale solar

65 TWh wind (due to a smarter energy system)

Context: 2050 total

heat is 2600 TWh

Energy Efficiency

Demand side is extremely important, but eventually it will become expensive

Supply side also has many options: PP converted to CHP

100 TWh surplus industrial heat

200 TWh heat from waste incineration

Main Conclusions

HRE1 Conclusions

If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can:

Reduce the PES

Reduce the CO2 emissions

Reduce the costs of the energy system

Use more renewable energy

HRE2 Conclusions

If we implement a lot of energy efficiency measures, then district heating will:

Meet the same goals:

Utilise the same amount of fossil fuels

Enable the same CO2 emission reductions

BUT, Cost approximately 15% less

Study 3?

(20??)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ??? scenario?

Research To Be Continued…

Develop national plans that connect the local (mapping) and EU (modelling) results.

Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload electricity and developing more smart energy system technologies

4th Generation District Heating: http://www.4dh.dk/

Create an electric heating scenario for the EU27

Thank you

Need a copy of the report?

www.heatroadmap.eu

www.4dh.dk/hre