Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised European ... · Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot...
Transcript of Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised European ... · Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot...
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Heat pumps as key technologies for a
decarbonised European building sector!
How to unleash the potential?
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The urgency to act … has just increased
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
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«The main headlines from this
year‘s stats review is that both
global energy demand and
carbon emissions grew in 2018
at their fastest rate in 7-8 years»
Spencer Dale, Chief Economist BP
Reality 2018: Energy demand & CO2 emissions growing (+2%),
Reality 2019: Economy growing & CO2 emissions flatten
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.20203
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5 Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Source: Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Energy Transition in Europe Across Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination Sectors
100% renewable heating is possible – with heat pumps
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
70%
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The electrification of industrial heat
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
Approx. 27% in 2050
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130 Members
Heat pump manufacturers
Component manufacturers
National associations
Consultants
Research & test institutes
22countries
represented
EHPARue d Arlon 63 - Brussels
Vision
In a fully decarbonised
Europe, heat-pump
technologies are the
number one heating
and cooling solution,
being a core enabler
for a renewable,
sustainable and smart
energy system.
The European Heat Pump Association aisbl / founded 2000
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Heat pumps are everywhere
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Residential
Application
s
Commercial
Applications
Industrial
Application
s
District
Heating
Big buildings
Heat pumps provide heating, cooling and hot water for...
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Energy sources for heat pumps
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Is it a heatpump? Is it an air conditioner?
Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot water generator?
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
Integration of services based
on the refrigerant cycle
heating Hot water
cooling dehumidification
wa
rme
r
co
lde
r
Climaterefrigeration
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Heat pumps balance a “high-RES-electricity grid“
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
Source: SMA
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Lets add a few items: electric and thermal batteries, PV
panels, some ventilation, smartness …
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
el battery
th battery photovoltaics
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Fot. Bogdan
Achimescu
Heat pump benefits:
less air pollution in cities: example Krakow
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
Thanks to Port PC for the example
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Reduction of heat islands
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Is it a heatpump? Is it an air conditioner?
Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot water generator?
Or is it a electric grid stabilizer?
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
wa
rme
r
co
lde
r
Climate
Demand
side
flexibility
Integration of services
based on the refrigerant
cycle
heating Hot water
cooling dehumidification
refrigeration
Air
qua
lity
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market growth ‘05 – ’19 | HP stock2019: 13 mill. installed
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
2019e
1,45m
10%e
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The EU leaderboard of annual HP sales 2018
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
Huge untapped potential
in large
heating and cooling
markets ...
sta
ts.e
hp
a.o
rg
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Absolute growth per country and year
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Heat pump benefits 2019e
Based on 13 million heat pumps installed
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
Fossil final
energy
savingse
CO2
savingse
Renewable
energye
180TWh
36Mt
Demand response
potentialUp to
3.5 TWh
Clean air
130TWh
No PM at point of
operation
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Auxiliary
energy
➔ useful energy
➔ If auxiliary energy is
green, heat pumps
provide
100% green heat
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Heat pump manufacturing in Europe
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
103 sites
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5.6 million
boilers
1.1 mill. heating heat
pumps (19.6%)
7.8 million
sanitary hot water
161 000 dedicated hot
water heat pumps (2%)
• Use of fossil energy for heating dominates in Europe!
• To decarbonise heating and cooling heat pumps are a perfect option
Industrial
heating and
cooling?
Heat Pumps in the EU heating system 2018
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
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Energy efficiency
directive
Energy efficiency on systems level (+calculations for HP)
+
Comprehensive assessments on heating and cooling
+
Energy performance of
buildings directive
New builds, renovation strategy + modernisation of H&C
+
Smart buildings +
Renewable energy
directive
Definitions: renewable energy / renewable cooling
Sectorial target for renewable heating / cooling
+Governance Regulation
National energy and climate plans (NECP)
Improved data situation
+
Electricity market design Flexible tariffs, smart grids
F-gas regulation Reduction of F-Gas related emissions + -
European Green Deal
Transition towards a zero-CO2 emission society
More ambitious CO2 – emission target
Price for CO2-emission
Cle
an
en
erg
y 4
all
Eu
rop
ea
ns
pa
ck
ag
e
If not
successful
Long term strategyfossil molecules 🡺 green molecules (H2/CH4) or
biomass
++
++
++
++
+
+
+
--
--+
National legislation F-gas taxation, certification requirements, standards + -
+ -Ecodesign regulations Revision of lot 1&2, 10 and 33
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< 1% annual increase of
renewable share
Total final energy demand for heating /
cooling|EU28
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
1st RES D RES D II
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• RE heating/cooling, acknowledge waste heat
• Min. share of RES in buildings
• Annual increase of RE heating/cooling (Art. 23)
• More power to prosumers (heat & electricity)
• Upward revision
• Part of nat. energy & climate plans (NECP‘s)
+1.3pp
2023
Renewable Energy DirectiveHeat pumps use renewable energy from air / water / soil, waste energy treated similarly
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
renewable
32
%
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indicative
Energy efficiency directive (2012/27/EU,
2018/2002/EU) Heat pumps are the most efficient technology for heating and cooling
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
• Obligation to reduce annual
final energy demand (Art. 7)– 1.5% annually until 2020
– 0.8% annually until 2030
– Specific rules for HP
• New primary energy
factor: 2.1
• Comprehensive
Assessments on H&C due
by 31.12.2020 (Annex VIII)
energy efficiency
32.5
%
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Reduction of CO2 emissionsHeat pumps are one of the lowest-emission technologies
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
CO2
50/55
%“I want Europe to become the first climate
neutral continent in the world by 2050. To make
this happen, we must take bold steps together ... .
A two-step approach is needed to reduce
CO2 emissions by 2030 by 50, if not 55%.“ President Ursula von der Leyen
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Long term strategy (LTS) & European Green deal
for a decarbonised heating/cooling sector
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
Europe has approx. 115 - 120 million buildings
90 million single family residential
15 million multi-family residential
10 – 15 million commercial and office buildings
If heat pump reach a market penetration of 75% of all boilers...More than 86 million HP need to be manufactured and installed by 2050
2.9 million every year (2.5 times todays annual sales)
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40% Boiler exchange
in ”high temperature heating
buildings”
technologytechnology
Technical potential of HP in the building stock
🡺 Is the technology only fit for purpose in new
builds?
Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020
20%
New
build
HP
ready
40%Boiler exchange
1:1
little/no renovation
HP ready
under conditionstechnology
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Huge untapped potential for Heat
Pumps in all Europe applies likewise for
the Netherlands
Units sold per 1000 households in 2018
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If Norway was everywhere ... annual sales
would be
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
• Potential of an increase in
sales by factor 8-10
• Is the value chain ready?
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The glass ceiling
• Energy/price ratio
• Energy taxation
• No CO2-price signal
• Fossil fuel subsidies
• “We can’t electrify everything” argument
(+ debated role of H2 / eMethane)
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Relative prices: electric power vs. gas:
residential
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
Relative prices: electric power
vs. gas in Europa
High factors
=High operative
costs for heat
pumps
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➔
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Relative prices: electric power vs. Gas:
industry
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Question to the industry:
Are you prepared for growth?
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RED I
EED, EPBD
Ecodesign CE4all
1,45m?
?
2020e 2021e
?
2022e
F-gas
EU Green Deal
2019e
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HP challenge: What if Norway was everywhere? Is the HP value chain ready for a mass market?
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
Solutions for the renovation sector, multi-family buildings, industrial applications, district energy
Solutions for sector coupling and demand side flexibility
Manufacturing capacity and availability of components (including F-gas)?
Knowledgable planners, architects and installers?
Building codes?
Financing and business models
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• Heat pump technologies are ready and recognized in legislation
• Their contribution to fight climate change is more and more understood
• Need for action (#Fridaysforfuture, Cities) is stressed by the public
• Market framework could be better to accelerate market deployment
• Industry ready?
Conclusions
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A 100% renewable society is possible – by 2050
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020http://hpc2.stage3.de/
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The European Heat Pump Association AISBL
Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020
• EHPA is a Brussels based industry association which aims at promoting awareness and proper deployment of heat pump technology in the European market place for residential, commercial and industrial applications. EHPA provides technical and economic input to European, national and local authorities in legislative, regulatory and energy efficiency matters. All activities are aimed at overcoming market barriers and dissemination of information in order to speed up market development of heat pumps for heating, cooling and hot water production.
• EHPA coordinates a quality initiative including a Quality label for heat pumps and Certification standards for heat pump installers. The association compiles the annual heat pump statistics and organizes a number of events, among them an annual heat pump conference.
Contact:
Thomas Nowak
European Heat Pump Association phone: +32 24 00 10 17
Rue d’Arlon 63-67 | B-1040 Brussels mail [email protected]
http://www.ehpa.org
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